In 4 weeks time, the draw for World Cup 2010 is made, so how should we go about negotiating the fixture list for it, as it's important to play the right games at the right times.
Here's a look at the last 4 qualifiers:
WC 2002:
In a 10-match group, the strategy was to play the top 2 seeds away early on, which we did, and brought home 2 vital away points in our first two games. We ended up with 4 of the first 5 away, and finished our away qualifying campaign in June. Leaving the home game with Holland until the second last game of the series, was a big gamble taken by Mick. Holland and Portugal's remaining games were against the minnows, and defeat in Lansdowne, would put us almost certainly out of the competition, but winning it guaranteed us a play-off place at worst. Only GD separated us from Portugal in the group. The scheduling of the play-off meant it was vital, that we took a healthy lead to Iran for the return leg. The 2-0 win was enough to put us into the finals.
EC 2004:
The fixture meeting was held in Dublin, and they were thrashed out in 45 minutes. The policy was to go to one of the heavyweights early on again, in order to catch the home side on a WC hangover, except nobody does that in Moscow. Instead, without Roy Keane, we were the ones to suffer the post-WC withdrawal symptoms, conceding 4 goals in a qualifier for the first time since the home defeat by Denmark in '85. With defeat following in our next match, new manager Kerr was given a blunt task: win in Georgia and Albania at Easter. Victory was achieved in Tbilisi, but the 0-0 draw in Albania was seen as 2 points dropped. With 4 points going into the next 3 games, all at home, 6 points were required from the June double header. The return against Albania, saw the FAI in their wisdom force the players, most of whom hadn't played a game for weeks beforehand, to play at 3.00pm on a balmy Saturday afternoon. The lethargic performance that followed was inevitable. We just about scraped through in injury time. With other teams taking points off each other, two wins from the last 2 games would put us in the finals, while a 2-0 home win over the Russians would guarantee us a play-off spot. The failure to do that, meant having to win in Switzerland was one miracle too much to achieve. The strategy had failed.
WC 2006:
Kerr chose a different strategy at the meeting in Dublin, which was not to play a double header home and away. So no convenient trips to Cyprus and Israel in the same week, but 6 months apart. However, he did borrow a McCarthy tactic, get the trips to the rivals over with as early as possible, but sweetened with a confidence booster at home to Cyprus. A marathon meeting, almost ended in collapse, and the prospect of the last two games being in Paris and Basle as a result. But with 95% of the targets achieved, and France and Switzerland at home in the last month, everything was going to plan until the 90th minute in Israel. The disasterous 2-0 throwaway lead in Lansdowne, and the defeat at home to France, meant that we hadn't taken advantage of the points won away from home. With France leading in Geneva, all we needed was a draw against the Swiss to qualify, but Switzerland levelled against France, and the tables were turned for the last match, as in they only needed a point to qualify. 93 frustrating minutes later, despite having home advantage, we couldn't score the goal that would have put us into the play-off, and we finished 4th. With the first and last games at home, you couldn't have asked for a better fixture list, and yet we still couldn't qualify, despite having the odds stacked in our favour for most of it.
EC 2008:
Again, the strategy was to go to one of the heavies away from home, to take advantage of their WC comedown, except we were in no position to do so in Germany, and played poorly. The agreement at the meeting in Frankfurt, was to play Germany and the Czechs in the first 3 games, and in 2 of the last 4, and twin the trips to the Czechs and Slovaks. With the boss not wanting to play in June, and finishing our campaign first, points had to be accumulated in advance. The throwaway of 2 points in Slovakia and the disaster in Cyprus, combined with defeats to ordinary German and Czech teams away, led to our elimination by September, and our worst qualifying campaign in 22 years.
Personally, I think we should go for a rough model of the WC 2006 list, and we should return to playing qualifiers in June. But I would prefer one change from that system, that would be to play home and away double headers, as it's better to play a team when they're out of form, on a hangover, or have injuries, than when they're firing on all cylinders, with a full-strength squad, while from a fan point of view, it's the best and cheapest solution.
You can't get everything you want, but a fixture list can give you a decisive advantage in a qualifying campaign, as demonstrated best by Germany in this one.
If it was your call, how would you go about it?
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Originally Posted by mypost
In 4 weeks time, the draw for World Cup 2010 is made, so how should we go about negotiating the fixture list for it, as it's important to play the right games at the right times.
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