12 team league from next season

[Cymro]

What I'm trying to prove is that if you take away clubs that historically have had more success or are blessed with a big cachement area (pretty much unlike most Welsh Premier sides) that the actual level of interest is not particularly different in either.

I think I've proposed a valid theory in my last post for why attendances in your first division are higher on average this season, but if you don't buy that, it can simply be written off as something of an anomaly which doesn't really falsify the facts of three years of averages.

It was basically a reply to Steve's post, after Steve had taken what was a perfectly light-hearted comment far too seriously. Naturally being the stubborn cnut I am, I felt obliged to reply.

[AnnaghRed]

Strange as it may seem, fans in dublin dont tend to travel to "away" games in dublin as much as you would think, even when the "away" ground is actually the normal home ground in some cases.

And as has been stated the overall attendances across the the league are not that far from top to bottom, with maybe the exception of cork who when doing well can get 6-7000 no matter who they play, and ucd who will only get a few hundred no matter who they play, everyone else in the premier will get 1,500-4,000 with very little of that being away support.

Could this, or something similar work?


Premier League: BOTTOM 4 RELEGATED
Drogheda Utd 6000*
Shamrock Rov 10000
St Patricks Ath 6000
Bohemians 10000
Sligo Rovers 8000
Cork City 10000
Derry City 10000
UCD 3000
Galway Utd 8000
Bray Wanderers 6000
Linfield 10000
Glentoran 8000
Cliftonville 8000
Portadown 6000
Lisburn Distillery 3000
Crusaders 3000

Southern League One: TOP 2 PROMOTED
Waterford Utd 8000
Longford Town 6000
Cobh Ramblers 6000
Dundalk 8000
Finn Harps 8000
Limerick 8000
Monaghan Utd 3000
Shelbourne 6000
Athlone Town 6000
Kildare County 3000
Wexford Youths 3000
Kilkenny City 6000
Fanad United 3000
Rockmount 3000
Bangor Celtic 3000
Cherry Orchard 3000

Southern League Two:
Letterkenny Rovers
Kildrum Tigers
Cockhill Celtic
Bonagee United
Bluebell United
Crumlin United
Belgrove
Malahide United
Tolka Rovers
Skerries Town
Greystones
Wayside Celtic
Avondale United
Blarney United
Castleview
Everton

Northern League: TOP 2 PROMOTED
Coleraine 6000
Dungannon Swifts 3000
Ballymena United 6000
Limavady United 3000
Armagh City 3000
Newry City 3000
Donegal Celtic 3000
Larne 3000
Glenavon 6000
Loughgall 3000
Institute 3000
Bangor 3000
Banbridge Town 3000
Carrick Rangers 3000
Ards 3000
Dundela 3000

Northern League Two:
H&W Welders
Coagh United
Tobermore United
Portstewart
Ballinamallard
Moyola Park
Ballyclare Comrades
Lurgan Celtic
Wakehurst
Ballymoney United
Oxford United Stars
PSNI
Brantwood
Annagh United
Chimney Corner
Dergview

* CUP FINAL CROWD

[dcfcsteve]

Been away on holidays for the last week or so hence the late reply.

The major flaw with your counter argument here is that you aren't actually listening to what I've said and are assuming I'm claiming things that I'm not.

Let's dress this post down fully shall we?



Right, let's have a look at what I was actually claiming here.

From that link I provided in my last post, you can check these if you don't take my word for it.

1st Division 2006

Club Average attendance
Galway United 1,148
Shamrock Rovers 1,089
Dundalk FC 1,078
Finn Harps 428
Athlone 421
Cobh Ramblers 368
Limerick 364
Kildare County 265
Monaghan Utd 204
Kilkenny City 122

Average 570, but when you take away the top 3, 310.

1st Division 2005

Club Average attendance
Sligo Rovers 1,819
Limerick 669
Galway United 566
Dundalk 474
Cobh Ramblers 403
Athlone 316
Kildare County 186
Kilkenny City 185
Monaghan United 183
Dublin City 175

Average 523, but when you take away the top 3, 274.

1st Division 2004

Club Average attendance
Finn Harps 1,106
Bray Wanderers 818
Sligo Rovers 781
Dundalk 591
Galway United 571
UCD 306
Kildare 298
Athlone 291
Cobh Ramblers 240
Limerick 188
Monaghan United 182
Kilkenny City 108

Average 515, but when you take away the top 3, 352.

Right, now, the reason I've taken away the top 3 in each of these cases is because in general there are 3 clubs with significantly higher attendances than the others. 2005 being something of an exception, but then even still if you only took out Sligo (who had far higher attendances than the rest) the average would still likely only be around 320 or so.

Additionally, let's not discount the impact that the large away followings of clubs like Sligo have on other clubs' attendances. My aim here is to try and establish the real level of support/interest for both levels of football.

Your counter-argument was focussed on a lot of stuff I wasn't even claiming and using figures from a season (this one) that is both not complete and therefore inaccurate, and also completely atypical in that the invitational thingy you've got in your Premier Division has shuffled a lot of teams around, some of whom, like Shelbourne, have enjoyed plenty of success in recent times so will therefore naturally have higher than average gates for their level of football. Also, there are some newly-formed clubs like Wexford whose gates will likely become more 'par for the course' over the next few years as the novelty factor wears off.

I personally think that general stats over the course of several years are a better way of measuring actual levels of support for a certain standard of football, and indeed that is why I wasn't claiming any of the things you implied I was, most likely because you are so arrogant that you can't even accept that the tiny little Welsh Premier could even come near the might of the Eircom 1st Division.

When you reply to this, reply to it on its own merits and not on stuff that I'm not claiming to be true as you did with the last one.

DmanDmythDlegend has saved me the effort of answering most of your post.

Needless to say - I have no idea why you feel the need to strip out any club when looking at our average attendances. If you moved the goalposts any more to suit your arguement, you'd be able to get a job as a groundsman. It is absurd to weed out 3 clubs at your whim, and does absolutely nothing to bolster your point.

Also - your rationale for weeding out 3 clubs is highly suspect. In some seasons - yes, there have been 3 clubs in the First with by-far greater attendances than the rest (e.g. 2006). But what more usually happens (e.g. 2004 and 2005) is there is a single club with crowds by-far ahead of every one else. So why strip out 3 ? Why not 1 ? Or 2 ? Or 4 ? That said - stripping out top clubs in the division for attendance again proves nothing - except, surprise, surprise - that those clubs doing well have higher average attendances than those that aren't. Hold the front page...

It may well give you some small crumb of comfort to seek to claim that the highest division in Wales has attendances equal to the worst supported part of the lower division in Ireland, but I think everyone else can see your desperation here.

And for the record - I am far from anti the Welsh Premier. I am extremely supportive of the Welsh league (it suits my nationalist sentiments) and I can assure you that I am better informed about it than you are about the EL. I have been to Welsh premier grounds, I have watched Welsh Premier teams play in the league and in Europe, I have seen a number of live Welsh Premier matches on TV, and I watch Y Clwb Pel-Droed every week on S4C (just finished watching last night's edition ironically). So not only am I supportive of the league - I would assert that I have a stronger grasp of Welsh football than you do of Irish. So when I pull you up on attendnaces and European performances of the Welsh league it's not becasue I'm being harsh or negative about it - it's because you have a habit of making wishful but flawed statements regarding the relative strength of the Irish and Welsh leagues, and I believe that I am in a better position than you to judge (by virtue of the fact that I see more of both leagues than you). If you do in-fact see more of the EL thnan I do of the WPL, please state so and I will apologise unreservedly.

P.S. Interesting to see that the biggest gate in Wales yesterday was for the meeting of 2 teams with genuine title aspirations (Rhyl and Llanelli). A whopping 547.

[-lamb-]

Wexford 1,063
Shels 993

now that is a surprise, even with the novelty factor!
i've said for years that wexford needed a decent football team but thought it might be a little tough as i had always considered wexford a strong GAA area but fair play, thats an impressive figure. hope they still have those numbers in, say, 10 years time.

[Cymro]

DmanDmythDlegend has saved me the effort of answering most of your post.

Needless to say - I have no idea why you feel the need to strip out any club when looking at our average attendances. If you moved the goalposts any more to suit your arguement, you'd be able to get a job as a groundsman. It is absurd to weed out 3 clubs at your whim, and does absolutely nothing to bolster your point.

It is not absurd to 'weed out clubs' as you call it. What I am trying to do is demonstrate that when you compare like for like in Ireland and Wales attendances are more or less the same (being slightly higher in the ID1, but not the huge gulf that you would have us believe). Clubs like Sligo, Wexford, Shelbourne, Galway etc-don't they draw support from far bigger towns than the average ID1 or WPL side? Conversely, clubs like Athlone, Kilkenny, Kildare County, Monaghan, Limerick, Cobh Ramblers etc.-what you'd call 'typical' ID1 sides draw support from similar sized areas to those in the WPL? Surely you can see the point I'm trying to make here.

Also - your rationale for weeding out 3 clubs is highly suspect. In some seasons - yes, there have been 3 clubs in the First with by-far greater attendances than the rest (e.g. 2006). But what more usually happens (e.g. 2004 and 2005) is there is a single club with crowds by-far ahead of every one else. So why strip out 3 ? Why not 1 ? Or 2 ? Or 4 ? That said - stripping out top clubs in the division for attendance again proves nothing - except, surprise, surprise - that those clubs doing well have higher average attendances than those that aren't. Hold the front page...

In 2004 and 2006 there are clearly three clubs with significantly greater attendances than the rest. 2005 was addressed in my last post. Keep up will you?

It may well give you some small crumb of comfort to seek to claim that the highest division in Wales has attendances equal to the worst supported part of the lower division in Ireland, but I think everyone else can see your desperation here.

This is not about comparing overall levels of support in both countries, because frankly, if it came to that, the some 25,000+ that watch the three football league clubs in Wales would have to be considered. This is about comparing like for like in Wales and Ireland, where the clubs in question are drawing support from reasonably similar sized towns.

And for the record - I am far from anti the Welsh Premier. I am extremely supportive of the Welsh league (it suits my nationalist sentiments) and I can assure you that I am better informed about it than you are about the EL. I have been to Welsh premier grounds, I have watched Welsh Premier teams play in the league and in Europe, I have seen a number of live Welsh Premier matches on TV, and I watch Y Clwb Pel-Droed every week on S4C (just finished watching last night's edition ironically). So not only am I supportive of the league - I would assert that I have a stronger grasp of Welsh football than you do of Irish. So when I pull you up on attendnaces and European performances of the Welsh league it's not becasue I'm being harsh or negative about it - it's because you have a habit of making wishful but flawed statements regarding the relative strength of the Irish and Welsh leagues, and I believe that I am in a better position than you to judge (by virtue of the fact that I see more of both leagues than you). If you do in-fact see more of the EL thnan I do of the WPL, please state so and I will apologise unreservedly.

Although it's obvious you know your stuff when it comes to the Welsh Premier I do think you have something against it. Your post history is littered with fairly negative comments regarding it, yet when something positive actually occurs involving a Welsh premier side you are strangely silent or write it off. Like the discussion we had the other day about European results this year. I can't remember exactly what was said there, but it was pretty much along the lines of 'a couple of fluke wins, but let's not focus on those let's focus on the hammering one team (who had lost their manager and their best players) got.'

That's just negative.

As for my knowledge of the Welsh Premier and the Eircom League. I have watched Welsh Premier football since its inception in 1992, and have watched Port Talbot on a regular basis for the last 5 years. I have watched enough Irish football to get a general idea of the standard and will probably travel to take in a game over the next couple of years.

P.S. Interesting to see that the biggest gate in Wales yesterday was for the meeting of 2 teams with genuine title aspirations (Rhyl and Llanelli). A whopping 547.

It wasn't a terrible crowd when you consider the vast distance between the two teams which inevitably hinders away support. Rhyl's average gate is about 500, so when the local derbies with Bangor City come around, they will inevitably draw considerably more to those.

[osarusan]

Clubs like Sligo, Wexford, Shelbourne, Galway etc-don't they draw support from far bigger towns than the average ID1 or WPL side? Conversely, clubs like Athlone, Kilkenny, Kildare County, Monaghan, Limerick, Cobh Ramblers etc.-what you'd call 'typical' ID1 sides draw support from similar sized areas to those in the WPL?

Don't want to get into this debate but you've got some of your geography messed up there. Limerick is a major city (by Irish standards) with a bigger cachement area that most of the "untypical" clubs you've mentioned.

[dcfcsteve]

It is not absurd to 'weed out clubs' as you call it. What I am trying to do is demonstrate that when you compare like for like in Ireland and Wales attendances are more or less the same (being slightly higher in the ID1, but not the huge gulf that you would have us believe).

Yet again I don't see why you feel the need to weed out clubs full stop. This notion of trying to compare like-with-like (which you then do inaccurately...) is irrelevant. The only 'like with like' to compare here is the Eircom league versus the Welsh Premier League. That is what we're talking about here - not some artifically created sub-set of the two, because it makes the comparison more palatable to you or better fits your aspirations for your league. Irish fotball has substantially bigger crowds than Welsh (by a factor or up to 6 times bigger, depending upon the club concerned). Full stop.

Clubs like Sligo, Wexford, Shelbourne, Galway etc-don't they draw support from far bigger towns than the average ID1 or WPL side? Conversely, clubs like Athlone, Kilkenny, Kildare County, Monaghan, Limerick, Cobh Ramblers etc.-what you'd call 'typical' ID1 sides draw support from similar sized areas to those in the WPL? Surely you can see the point I'm trying to make here.

Even if I was to accept your idea of weeding out certain clubs, your knowledge of Irish geography/demographics lets you down horribly. You are obviously basing your arguement on uninformed personal musings about Irish towns and their populations e.g. your suggestion that Wexford is a big town whilst Limerick has a small population (Limerick is the 3rd biggest city in the Republic...).

Rather than guessing or making the populations up, if you analyse the actual population statistics for conurbations with teams in both our leagues, there is no great overall population disparity between the majority of Irish and Welsh clubs. Yes - the WPL does have a couple of teams from towns with very small populations (e.g. Caersws), but you also have teams from big urban areas like Port Talbot and Neath. Regardless - any difference in population is not such that it would justify the differences in attendances that exist. If Finn Harps can draw an average crowd of over 600 to games in the village of Ballybofey (population 3,000) why can't clubs like Llangefni, Porthmadog and Cefn Mawr for example ? And Ballybofey/Donegal isn't even a soccer area.

The 2 biggest cities in Ireland are Cork and Dublin. The population stats for the other towns/cities with an EL club are as follows, split into 3 population bands to allow comparison :

POPULATION OF IRISH TOWNS WITH SENIOR TEAM
(Mostly 2006 census figures)

Group 1- over 20,000
Derry City = 89,085 (2007 estimate - though beluieved to be too low for a variety of reasons).
Limerick City = 52,560 (90,778 incl environs)
Galway City = 72,414 (incl environs)
Waterford = 49,240
Dundalk = 29,037
Drogheda = 28,973
Bray = 27,041
Kilkenny City (incl environs) = 20,735

Group 2 - 10,000-20,000
Sligo = 17,892
Newbridge (Kildare County FC) = 17,042
Athlone = 14,347
Longford = 13,000
Cobh (incl Great Island) = 12,887

Group 3 - Under 10,000
Wexford = 8,854
Monaghan = 7,811 (incl rural area).
Ballybofey (Finn Harps FC) = 3,300.

POPULATION OF WELSH TOWNS WITH SENIOR TEAM
(Mixture of 2001 census figures and 2007 estimates)

Group 1- over 20,000
Port Talbot = 134,471
Neath = 67,500
Cwmbran = 48,609 (relegated last season).
Llanelli = 47,647
Rhyl = 26,106

Group 2 - 10,000-20,000
Aberystwyth = 19,795 (plus 8,000 students - some of whom I know personally attend games).
Carmarthen = 18,000
Oswestry (TNS) = 17,181
Connah's Quay = 16,800
Bangor City = 15,531 (plus 7,734 students).
Haverfordwest = 13,514
Newtown = 10,528

Group 3 - Under 10,000
Caernarfon = 9,887
Welshpool = 6,269
Llangefni = 4,499.
Porthmadog = 4,187
Cefn Mawr = difficult to judge. It is part of Wrexham Borough - so its population could reflect eitehr the small number of villages that make up the Cefin Mawr district (population c. 8,000) or the population of Wrexham Borough excluding the Urban area (pop : over 63,000), or the population for the whole of Wrexham borough, incl Wrexham urban area = over 130,000.
Caersws = 1,526.

This is not about comparing overall levels of support in both countries, because frankly, if it came to that, the some 25,000+ that watch the three football league clubs in Wales would have to be considered. This is about comparing like for like in Wales and Ireland, where the clubs in question are drawing support from reasonably similar sized towns.

It is indeed about comparing like-for-like - i.e. the indigenous Welsh league with the indigenous Irish one. Talk of the exiled clubs is just nonesense. And where we comapre towns of similar sizes - Group 2 population towns in Ireland like Longford, Sligo and Athlone vs Group 2 towns in Wales like Aberystwyth, Bangor, Connahs Quay etc - the Irish clubs draw significantly larger attendances. That, sir, blows the arse out of your arguement.

Although it's obvious you know your stuff when it comes to the Welsh Premier I do think you have something against it.

Simply not true. I suspect your willingness to post about Irish football whilst having clearly limited knowledge of it just brought out my spikey side......

I have watched enough Irish football to get a general idea of the standard and will probably travel to take in a game over the next couple of years.

Have you been to any EL Matches ? Have you been to any EL stadiums ? Do you watch our live games regularly ? Do you see the weekly highlights show ? If not - just how much exposure do you consider "enough to get a general idea of the standard" ? Or do you just make ill-informed assumptions on scant evidence, as in your population analysis ?

It wasn't a terrible crowd when you consider the vast distance between the two teams which inevitably hinders away support. Rhyl's average gate is about 500, so when the local derbies with Bangor City come around, they will inevitably draw considerably more to those.

Stop making excuses !!! There is no journey in the Welsh league that is longer than, for example, Derry v Cork, Harps v Cobh etc. Yet we still get bigger crowds for those fixtures. If 2 teams with genuie title aspirations can't get more than 547 for a game at the very start of the seaosn - i.e. when it's all to play for and fans are full of hope - then your league is clearly struggling for support. Distance does not excuse that.

And what crowd do you expect for the big Rhyl v Bangor derby ? Only one game in the entire Welsh Premier last seaosn broke the 1,000 barrier (Caernarfon v Bangor) with the next highest attendnace almost 20% behind that ! The Rhyl v Bangor fixture last season only attracted 758. So how many do you expect this year, and will it even touch the derby crowds in Ireland ??

In summary - despite trying to chop and change the arguement and the statistics to your favour - often completely incorrectly - the simple fact is that the Welsh Premier suffers dramatically lower crowds than the EL. Demographics and distance do not alter that underlying fact.

[EalingGreen]

It is indeed about comparing like-for-like - i.e. the indigenous Welsh league with the indigenous Irish one. Talk of the exiled clubs is just nonesense. And where we comapre towns of similar sizes - Group 2 population towns in Ireland like Longford, Sligo and Athlone vs Group 2 towns in Wales like Aberystwyth, Bangor, Connahs Quay etc - the Irish clubs draw significantly larger attendances.

Steve,
Whilst I agree with the overall gist of your argument with Cymru, I do think he has a valid point about the "exiled" clubs, since if these were forced to play in the Welsh League, they would undoubtedly boost attendances at the away games they played, by being a big attraction.

Surely as the supporter of an "exiled" giant yourself, you should understand that better than anyone!

[dcfcsteve]

Steve,
Whilst I agree with the overall gist of your argument with Cymru, I do think he has a valid point about the "exiled" clubs, since if these were forced to play in the Welsh League, they would undoubtedly boost attendances at the away games they played, by being a big attraction.

Surely as the supporter of an "exiled" giant yourself, you should understand that better than anyone!

If, if, if....!!! If my granny had balls.....

Of course I agree that if the exiled clubs joined the WPL there'd be a big boost in attendances. But I don't accept the point - as it is complete and utter fantasy.

The exiled Welsh clubs - or certainly at least the ones big enough to impact attendances to any significant degree) will simply not join the WPL. The smaller ones even took legal action against the WFA to assert their right not to, so I'd doubt they'd join either. So what is the point in playing fantasy football leagues here ?

I could retort by saying that if the thousands from Ireland who go off to England and Scotland every weekend to watch live football stayed at home to do it, then we'd trump their crowds still. But that is a pointless arguement (even if there is more chance of attracting some of those fans than of the Welsh exiles joining the WPL).

Or how about the much more feasible chance of the bigger IL clubs playing in the same league as EL clubs. That would boost attendances too. But I'd rather keep the debate grounded in reality....

[Soper]

I think most fans of the exiled clubs would just end up supporting other teams based in England, rather than 'lower themselves' to watching the domestic league.

[Cymro]

I think most fans of the exiled clubs would just end up supporting other teams based in England, rather than 'lower themselves' to watching the domestic league.

I wouldn't

[dcfcsteve]

I think most fans of the exiled clubs would just end up supporting other teams based in England, rather than 'lower themselves' to watching the domestic league.

No chance Soper ! Maybe for the odd star-struck idiot, but not the genuine fans.

Do you think Cardiff or Swansea fans would switch allegiance to an English team....!?!? There's feckin murders half the time they play very 'English' teams (e.g. Leeds, Milwall, Chelsea). I don't think you understand the Welsh mentality very well if you think they'd switch from Welsh clubs to English clubs at the drop of a hat.

As for Wrexham - there is zero glory in supporting the Robins. If you're the sort of fan who would bin your own team just because they'd switched league, you'd be the type who wouldn't support the likes of Wrexham anyway, or would've binned them years ago for Liverpool or Man U.

Regardless - if you're a Cardiff fan you're a Cardiff fan. Why would you suddenly stop supporting your team if they switched to a different league ? That doesn't make any sense.

[Cymro]

Exactly. Some of us actually support our teams because we support them, not because we play at a high level of football (not that Swansea have been near anything like a high level of football for decades mind)

[Steve Bruce]

I think what would actually happen is the 20,000 Cardiff get today would gradually dwindle to 3 or 4000.

Linfield at one time got 20,000-30,000 at matches but look at us 3 or 4 decades later getting 3,000 at the match.

[Cymro]

Yeah I'd agree with that. There's bound to be a good few that would be put off by the less than impressive standard of the WPL, but I'd say the hardcore of 3-4,000 that followed us when we were plumbing the depths of League 2 at the Vetch around 5 years ago would still be around even if we were forced into it.

[Soper]

I think we've had a misunderstanding...basically, what I meant to say, not very well it seems, is what Steve Bruce said. About Cardiff gradually getting the 2/3000 average crowds that they used to not so long ago.

[SolitudeRed]

I think what would actually happen is the 20,000 Cardiff get today would gradually dwindle to 3 or 4000.

Linfield at one time got 20,000-30,000 at matches but look at us 3 or 4 decades later getting 3,000 at the match.

Remember reading that you used to get crowds of 40,000 for Linfield v Belfast Celtic matches hard to believe given the current IL attendances!

Also didn't Shamrock Rovers still get crowds of 20,000 odd in the 70s? what happened to all these fans surely it can't all be the English premierships' fault!

[Steve Bruce]

Remember reading that you used to get crowds of 40,000 for Linfield v Belfast Celtic matches hard to believe given the current IL attendances!

Also didn't Shamrock Rovers still get crowds of 20,000 odd in the 70s? what happened to all these fans surely it can't all be the English premierships' fault!

Linfield had massive attendances until the troubles hit. Then crowds went down very quickly. Although I read a programme from the 80s saying that Linfield had to keep their average over 7,000 to break even.

The 90s has seen Irish football get the lowest figures ever seen.

[SolitudeRed]

Linfield had massive attendances until the troubles hit. Then crowds went down very quickly. Although I read a programme from the 80s saying that Linfield had to keep their average over 7,000 to break even.

The 90s has seen Irish football get the lowest figures ever seen.

It can only go up from the levels of the 90s well hopefully! The problem in the IL is that it has a bad reputation which would deter many potential fans which is entirely unwarranted unfortunately as almost every team has a minority of idiots amongst its supporters who'll chant some of the most offensive load of b***ocks at a game!

[LeviathanNI]

No.. what we need to remember is that the 90's brought us Sky TV and premiership football on a regular basis, and that hit all clubs that weren't in the Premiership (Rangers and Celtic excluded). Obviously the Troubles played their part in falling crowds in Northern Ireland, but I would say it was more to do with a population getting richer (and grounds not upgrading), top level English football on TV all the time (and not a bit of advertising from the IFA or FAI), the Champions league format changing (therefore excluding National Champions, and including rich 2 and 3rd place teams), cheap flights to the Mainland, and finally.. simply more things for people to do.... money gives you options.

Oh, and the evolution from the Megadrive to the Playstation has a lot to answer for as well