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Thread: It's Not About Oil Or Iraq.

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    Post It's Not About Oil Or Iraq.

    Interesting (not too far fetched) if a bit long read.

    > ---------------------
    > IT'S NOT ABOUT OIL OR IRAQ.
    > IT'S ABOUT THE US AND EUROPE
    > GOING HEAD-TO-HEAD ON WORLD ECONOMIC DOMINANCE.
    > By Geoffrey Heard
    > Melbourne, Australia
    >
    > Summary: Why is George Bush so hell bent on war with Iraq? Why does
    > his administration reject every positive Iraqi move? It all makes
    > sense when you consider the economic implications for the USA of not
    > going to war with Iraq. The war in Iraq is actually the US and Europe
    > going head to head on economic leadership of the world.
    >
    > America's Bush administration has been caught in outright lies, gross
    > exaggerations and incredible inaccuracies as it trotted out its litany
    > of paper thin excuses for making war on Iraq. Along with its two
    > supporters, Britain and Australia, it has shifted its ground and
    > reversed its position with a barefaced contempt for its audience. It
    > has manipulated information, deceived by commission and omission and
    > frantically "bought" UN votes with billion dollar bribes.
    >
    > Faced with the failure of gaining UN Security Council support for
    > invading Iraq, the USA has threatened to invade without authorisation.
    > It would act in breach of the UN's very constitution to allegedly
    > enforced UN resolutions. It is plain bizarre. Where does this
    > desperation for war come from?
    >
    > There are many things driving President Bush and his administration to
    > invade Iraq, unseat Saddam Hussein and take over the country. But the
    > biggest one is hidden and very, very simple. It is about the currency
    > used to trade oil and consequently, who will dominate the world
    > economically, in the foreseeable future -- the USA or the European
    > Union.
    >
    > Iraq is a European Union beachhead in that confrontation. America had
    > a monopoly on the oil trade, with the US dollar being the fiat
    > currency, but Iraq broke ranks in 1999, started to trade oil in the
    > EU's euros, and profited. If America invades Iraq and takes over, it
    > will hurl the EU and its euro back into the sea and make America's
    > position as the dominant economic power in the world all but
    > impregnable. It is the biggest grab for
    > world power in modern times.
    >
    > America's allies in the invasion, Britain and Australia, are betting
    > America will win and that they will get some trickle-down benefits for
    > jumping on to the US bandwagon.
    >
    > France and Germany are the spearhead of the European force -- Russia
    > would like to go European but possibly can still be bought off.
    >
    > Presumably, China would like to see the Europeans build a share of
    > international trade currency ownership at this point while it
    > continues to grow its international trading presence to the point
    > where it, too, can share the leadership rewards.
    >
    > DEBATE BUILDING ON THE INTERNET
    >
    > Oddly, little or nothing is appearing in the general media about this
    > issue, although key people are becoming aware of it -- note the
    > recent slide in the value of the US dollar. Are traders afraid of war?
    > They are more likely to be afraid there will not be war.
    >
    > But despite the silence in the general media, a major world discussion
    > is developing around this issue, particularly on the internet. Among
    > the many articles: Henry Liu, in the 'Asia Times' last June, it has
    > been a hot topic on the Feasta forum, an Irish-based group exploring
    > sustainable economics, and W. Clark's "The Real Reasons for the
    > Upcoming War with
    > Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken
    > Truth" has been published by the 'Sierra Times', 'Indymedia.org', and
    > 'ratical.org'.
    >
    > This debate is not about whether America would suffer from losing the
    > US dollar monopoly on oil trading -- that is a given -- rather it is
    > about exactly how hard the USA would be hit. The smart money seems to
    > be saying the impact would be in the range from severe to
    > catastrophic. The USA could collapse economically.
    >
    > OIL DOLLARS
    >
    > The key to it all is the fiat currency for trading oil.
    >
    > Under an OPEC agreement, all oil has been traded in US dollars since
    > 1971 (after the dropping of the gold standard) which makes the US
    > dollar the de facto major international trading currency. If other
    > nations have to hoard dollars to buy oil, then they want to use that
    > hoard for other trading too. This fact gives America a huge trading
    > advantage and helps make it the dominant economy in the world.
    >
    > As an economic bloc, the European Union is the only challenger to the
    > USA's economic position, and it created the euro to challenge the
    > dollar in international markets. However, the EU is not yet united
    > behind the euro -- there is a lot of jingoistic national politics
    > involved, not least in Britain -- and in any case, so long as nations
    > throughout the world must hoard dollars to buy oil, the euro can make
    > only very limited inroads into the dollar's dominance.
    >
    > In 1999, Iraq, with the world's second largest oil reserves, switched
    > to trading its oil in euros. American analysts fell about laughing;
    > Iraq had just made a mistake that was going to beggar the nation. But
    > two years on, alarm bells were sounding; the euro was rising against
    > the dollar, Iraq had
    > given itself a huge economic free kick by switching.
    >
    > Iran started thinking about switching too; Venezuela, the 4th largest
    > oil producer, began looking at it and has been cutting out the dollar
    > by bartering oil with several nations including America's bete noir,
    > Cuba. Russia is seeking to ramp up oil production with Europe (trading
    > in
    > euros) an obvious market.
    >
    > The greenback's grip on oil trading and consequently on world trade in
    > general, was under serious threat. If America did not stamp on this
    > immediately, this economic brushfire could rapidly be fanned into a
    > wildfire capable of consuming the US's economy and its dominance of
    > world trade.
    >
    > HOW DOES THE US GET ITS DOLLAR ADVANTAGE?
    >
    > Imagine this: you are deep in debt but every day you write cheques for
    > millions of dollars you don't have -- another luxury car, a holiday
    > home at the beach, the world trip of a lifetime.
    >
    > Your cheques should be worthless but they keep buying stuff because
    > those cheques you write never reach the bank! You have an agreement
    > with the owners of one thing everyone wants, call it petrol/gas, that
    > they will accept only your cheques as payment. This means everyone
    > must hoard your cheques so they can buy petrol/gas. Since they have to
    > keep a stock of your cheques, they use them to buy other stuff too.
    > You write a cheque to buy a TV, the TV shop owner swaps your cheque
    > for petrol/gas, that seller buys some vegetables at the fruit shop,
    > the fruiterer passes it on to buy bread, the baker buys some flour
    > with it, and on it goes, round and round -- but never back to the
    > bank.
    >
    > You have a debt on your books, but so long as your cheque never
    > reaches the bank, you don't have to pay. In effect, you have received
    > your TV free. This is the position the USA has enjoyed for 30 years --
    > it has been getting a free world trade ride for all that time. It has
    > been receiving a huge subsidy from everyone else in the world. As it
    > debt has been growing, it has printed more money (written more
    > cheques) to keep trading. No wonder it is an economic powerhouse!
    > Then one day, one petrol seller says he is going to accept another
    > person's cheques, a couple of others think that might be a good idea.
    > If this spreads, people are going to stop hoarding your cheques and they
    > will come flying home to the bank. Since you don't have enough in the
    > bank to cover all the cheques, very nasty stuff is going to hit the fan!
    >
    > But you are big, tough and very aggressive. You don't scare the other
    > guy who can write cheques, he's pretty big too, but given a
    > 'legitimate' excuse, you can beat the tripes out of the lone gas
    > seller and scare him and his mates into submission.
    >
    > And that, in a nutshell, is what the USA is doing right now with Iraq.
    >
    > AMERICA'S PRECARIOUS ECONOMIC POSITION
    >
    > America is so eager to attack Iraq now because of the speed with which
    > the euro fire could spread. If Iran, Venezuela and Russia join Iraq
    > and sell large quantities of oil for euros, the euro would have the
    > leverage it needs to become a powerful force in general international
    > trade. Other nations would have to start swapping some of their
    > dollars for euros.
    >
    > The dollars the USA has printed, the 'cheques' it has written, would
    > start to fly home, stripping away the illusion of value behind them.
    > The USA's real economic condition is about as bad as it could be; it
    > is the most debt-ridden nation on earth, owing about US$12,000 for
    > every single one of it's 280 million men, women and children. It is
    > worse than the position of Indonesia when it imploded economically a
    > few years ago, or more recently, that of Argentina.
    >
    > Even if OPEC did not switch to euros wholesale (and that would make a
    > very nice non-oil profit for the OPEC countries, including minimising
    > the various contrived debts America has forced on some of them), the
    > US's difficulties would build. Even if only a small part of the oil
    > trade went euro, that would do two things immediately:
    >
    > * Increase the attractiveness to EU members of joining the
    > 'eurozone', which in turn would make the euro stronger and make it
    > more attractive to oil nations as a trading currency and to other
    > nations as a general trading currency.
    >
    > * Start the US dollars flying home demanding value when there isn't
    > enough in the bank to cover them.
    >
    > * The markets would over-react as usual and in no time, the US
    > dollar's value would be spiralling down.
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

    Bring back Rocketman!

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    Post part II

    > THE US SOLUTION
    >
    > America's response to the euro threat was predictable. It has come out
    > fighting.
    >
    > It aims to achieve four primary things by going to war with Iraq:
    >
    > * Safeguard the American economy by returning Iraq to trading oil in
    > US dollars, so the greenback is once again the exclusive oil currency.
    >
    > * Send a very clear message to any other oil producers just what will
    > happen to them if they do not stay in the dollar circle. Iran has
    > already received one message -- remember how puzzled you were that in
    > the midst of moderation and secularization, Iran was named as a member
    > of the axis of evil?
    >
    > * Place the second largest reserves of oil in the world under direct
    > American control.
    >
    > * Provide a secular, subject state where the US can maintain a huge
    > force (perhaps with nominal elements from allies such as Britain and
    > Australia) to dominate the Middle East and its vital oil. This would
    > enable the US to avoid using what it sees as the unreliable Turkey,
    > the politically impossible Israel and surely the next state in its
    > sights, Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of al Qaeda and a hotbed of
    > anti-American sentiment.
    >
    > * Severe setback the European Union and its euro, the only trading
    > bloc and currency strong enough to attack the USA's dominance of world
    > trade through the dollar.
    >
    > * Provide cover for the US to run a covert operation to overturn the
    > democratically elected government of Venezuela and replace it with an
    > America-friendly military supported junta -- and put Venezuala's oil
    > into American hands.
    >
    > Locking the world back into dollar oil trading would consolidate
    > America's current position and make it all but impregnable as the
    > dominant world power -- economically and militarily. A splintered
    > Europe (the US is working hard to split Europe; Britain was easy, but
    > other Europeans have offered support in terms of UN votes) and its
    > euro would suffer a serious setback and might take decades to recover.
    >
    > It is the boldest grab for absolute power the world has seen in modern
    > times. America is hardly likely to allow the possible slaughter of a
    > few hundred thousand Iraqis stand between it and world domination.
    >
    > President Bush did promise to protect the American way of life. This
    > is what he meant.
    >
    > JUSTIFYING WAR
    >
    > Obviously, the US could not simply invade Iraq, so it began casting
    > around for a 'legitimate' reason to attack. That search has been one
    > of increasing desperation as each rationalization has crumbled. First
    > Iraq was a threat because of alleged links to al Qaeda; then it was
    > proposed Iraq might supply al Qaeda with weapons; then Iraq's military
    > threat to its neighbours was raised; then the need to deliver Iraqis
    > from Saddam Hussein's horrendously inhumane rule; finally there is the
    > question of compliance with UN weapons inspection.
    >
    > The USA's justifications for invading Iraq are looking less impressive
    > by the day. The US's statements that it would invade Iraq unilaterally
    > without UN support and in defiance of the UN make a total nonsense of
    > any American claim that it is concerned about the world body's
    > strength and standing.
    >
    > The UN weapons inspectors have come up with minimal infringements of
    > the UN weapons limitations -- the final one being low tech rockets
    > which exceed the range allowed by about 20 percent. But there is no
    > sign of the so-called weapons of mass destruction (WMD) the US has so
    > confidently asserted are to be found. Colin Powell named a certain
    > north Iraqi village as a threat. It was not. He later admitted it was
    > the wrong village.
    >
    > 'Newsweek' (24/2) has reported that while Bush officials have been
    > trumpeting the fact that key Iraqi defector, Lt. Gen. Hussein Kamel,
    > told the US in 1995 that Iraq had manufactured ton of nerve gas and
    > anthrax (Colin Powell's 5 February presentation to the UN wasjust one
    > example) they neglected to mention that Kamel had also told the US
    > that these weapons had been destroyed.
    >
    > Parts of the US and particularly the British secret 'evidence' have been
    > shown to come from a student's masters thesis. America's expressed
    > concern about the Iraqi people's human rights and the country's lack
    > of democracy are simply not supported by the USA's history of
    > intervention in other states nor by its current actions. Think
    > Guatemala, the Congo, Chile and Nicaragua as examples of a much larger
    > pool of US actions to tear down legitimate, democratically elected
    > governments and replace them with war, disruption, starvation,
    > poverty, corruption, dictatorships, torture, rape and murder for its
    > own economic ends. The most recent, Afghanistan, is not looking good;
    > in fact that reinstalled a murderous group of warlords which America
    > had earlier installed, then deposed, in favour of the now hated
    > Taliban.
    >
    > Saddam Hussein was just as repressive, corrupt and murderous 15 years
    > ago when he used chemical weapons, supplied by the US, against the
    > Kurds. The current US Secretary for Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, so
    > vehement against Iraq now, was on hand personally to turn aside
    > condemnation of Iraq and blame Iran. At that time, of course, the US
    > thought Saddam Hussein was their man -- they were using him against
    > the perceived threat of Iran's Islamic fundamentalism. Right now, as
    > 'The Independent' writer, Robert Fisk, has noted, the US's efforts to
    > buy Algeria's UN vote includes promises of re-arming the military
    > which has a decade long history of repression, torture, rape and
    > murder Saddam Hussein himself would envy. It is estimated 200,000
    > people have died, and countless others been left maimed by the
    > activities of these monsters. What price the US's humanitarian
    > concerns for Iraqis? (Of course, the French are also wooing Algeria,
    > their former north African territory, for all they are worth, but at
    > least they are not pretending to be driven by humanitarian concerns.)
    >
    > Indonesia is another nation with a vote and influence as the largest
    > Muslim nation in the world. Its repressive, murderous military is
    > regaining strength on the back of the US's so-called anti-terror
    > campaign and is receiving promises of open and covert support --
    > including intelligence sharing.
    >
    > AND VENEZUELA While the world's attention is focused on Iraq, America
    > is both openly and covertly supporting the "coup of the rich" in
    > Venezuela, which grabbed power briefly in April last year before being
    > intimidated by massive public displays of support by the poor for
    > democratically-elected President Chavez Frias. The coup leaders
    > continue to use their control of the private media, much of industry
    > and the ear of the American Government and its oily intimates to cause
    > disruption and disturbance.
    >
    > Venezuela's state-owned oil resources would make rich pickings for
    > American oil companies and provide the US with an important oil source
    > in its own backyard.
    >
    > Many writers have noted the contradiction between America's alleged
    > desire to establish democracy in Iraq while at the same time, actively
    > undermining the democratically-elected government in Venezuela. Above
    > the line, America rushed to recognise the coup last April; more
    > recently, President Bush has called for "early elections", ignoring
    > the fact that President Chavez Frias has won three elections and two
    > referendums and, in any case, early elections would be
    > unconstitutional.
    >
    > One element of the USA's covert action against Venezuela is the
    > behaviour of American transnational businesses, which have locked out
    > employees in support of "national strike" action. Imagine them doing
    > that in the USA! There is no question that a covert operation is in
    > process to overturn the legitimate Venezuelan government. Uruguayan
    > congressman, Jose Nayardi, made it public when he revealed that the
    > Bush administration had asked for Uruguay's support for Venezuelan
    > white collar executives and trade union activists "to break down
    > levels of intransigence within the Chavez Frias administration". The
    > process, he noted, was a shocking reminder of the CIA's 1973
    > intervention in Chile which saw General Pinochet lead his military
    > coup to take over President Allende's democratically elected
    > government in a bloodbath.
    >
    > President Chavez Frias is desperately clinging to government, but with
    > the might of the USA aligned with his opponents, how long can he last?
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

    Bring back Rocketman!

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    Post part III

    > THE COST OF WAR
    >
    > Some have claimed that an American invasion of Iraq would cost so many
    > billions of dollars that oil returns would never justify such an
    > action.
    >
    > But when the invasion is placed in the context of the protection of
    > the entire US economy for now and into the future, the balance of the
    > argument changes.
    >
    > Further, there are three other vital factors:
    >
    > First, America will be asking others to help pay for the war because
    > it is protecting their interests. Japan and Saudi Arabia made serious
    > contributions to the cost of the 1991 Gulf war.
    >
    > Second -- in reality, war will cost the USA very little -- or at
    > least, very little over and above normal expenditure. This war is
    > already paid for! All the munitions and equipment have been bought and
    > paid for. The USA would have to spend hardly a cent on new hardware to
    > prosecute this war -- the expenditure will come later when munitions
    > and equipment have to be replaced after the war. But munitions,
    > hardware and so on are being replaced all the time -- contracts are
    > out. Some contracts will simply be brought forward and some others
    > will be ramped up a bit, but spread over a few years, the cost will
    > not be great. And what is the real extra cost of an army at war
    > compared with maintaining the standing army around the world, running
    > exercises and so on? It is there, but it is a relatively small sum.
    >
    > Third -- lots of the extra costs involved in the war are dollars spent
    > outside America, not least in the purchase of fuel. Guess how America
    > will pay for these? By printing dollars it is going to war to protect.
    > The same happens when production begins to replace hardware.
    > components, minerals, etc. are bought in with dollars that go overseas
    > and exploit America's trading advantage.
    >
    > The cost of war is not nearly as big as it is made out to be. The cost
    > of not going to war would be horrendous for the USA - unless there
    > were another way of protecting the greenback's world trade dominance.
    >
    > AMERICA'S TWO ACTIVE ALLIES
    >
    > Why are Australia and Britain supporting America in its transparent
    > Iraqi war ploy?
    >
    > Australia, of course, has significant US dollar reserves and trades
    > widely in dollars and extensively with America. A fall in the US
    > dollar would reduce Australia's debt, perhaps, but would do nothing
    > for the Australian dollar's value against other currencies. John
    > Howard, the Prime Minister, has long cherished the dream of a free
    > trade agreement with the USA in the hope that Australia can jump on
    > the back of the free ride America gets in trade through the dollar's
    > position as the major trading medium. That would look much less
    > attractive if the euro took over a significant part of the oil trade.
    >
    > Britain has yet to adopt the euro. If the US takes over Iraq and
    > blocks the euro's incursion into oil trading, Tony Blair will have
    > given his French and German counterparts a bloody nose, and gained
    > more room to manouevre
    > on the issue -- perhaps years more room. Britain would be in a
    > position to demand a better deal from its EU partners for entering the
    > "eurozone" if the new currency could not make the huge value gains
    > guaranteed by a significant role in world oil trading. It might even
    > be in a position to withdraw from Europe and link with America against
    > continental Europe.
    >
    > On the other hand, if the US cannot maintain the oil trade dollar
    > monopoly, the euro will rapidly go from strength to strength, and
    > Britain could be left begging to be allowed into the club.
    >
    > THE OPPOSITION
    >
    > Some of the reasons for opposition to the American plan are obvious --
    > America is already the strongest nation on earth and dominates world
    > trade through its dollar. If it had control of the Iraqi oil and a
    > base for its forces in the Middle East, it would not add to, but would
    > multiply its power.
    >
    > The oil-producing nations, particularly the Arab ones, can see the
    > writing on the wall and are quaking in their boots.
    >
    > France and Germany are the EU leaders with the vision of a resurgent,
    > united Europe taking its rightful place in the world and using its
    > euro currency as a world trading reserve currency and thus gaining
    > some of the free ride the United States enjoys now. They are the ones
    > who initiated the euro oil trade with Iraq.
    >
    > Russia is in deep economic trouble and knows it will get worse the day
    > America starts exploiting its take-over of Afghanistan by running a
    > pipeline southwards via Afghanistan from the giant southern Caspian
    > oil fields. Currently, that oil is piped northwards -- where Russia
    > has control.
    >
    > Russia is in the process of ramping up oil production with the
    > possibility of trading some of it for euros and selling some to the US
    > itself. Russia already has enough problems with the fact that oil is
    > traded in US dollars; if the US has control of Iraqi oil, it could
    > distort the market to Russia's enormous disadvantage. In addition,
    > Russia has interests in Iraqi oil; an American take over could see
    > them lost. Already on its knees, Russia could be beggared before a
    > mile of the Afghanistan pipeline is laid.
    >
    > ANOTHER SOLUTION?
    >
    > The scenario clarifies the seriousness of America's position and
    > explains its frantic drive for war. It also suggests that solutions
    > other than war are possible.
    >
    > Could America agree to share the trading goodies by allowing Europe to
    > have a negotiated part of it? Not very likely, but it is just
    > possible Europe can stare down the USA and force such an outcome. Time
    > will tell. What about Europe taking the statesmanlike, humanitarian
    > and long view, and withdrawing, leaving the oil to the US, with
    > appropriate safeguards for ordinary Iraqis and democracy in Venezuela?
    >
    > Europe might then be forced to adopt a smarter approach - perhaps
    > accelerating the development of alternative energy technologies which
    > would reduce the EU's reliance on oil for energy and produce goods it
    > could trade for euros -- shifting the world trade balance. Now that
    > would
    > be a very positive outcome for everyone.
    >
    > .Geoffrey Heard is a Melbourne, Australia, writer on the environment,
    > sustainability and human rights. . . . .
    > Geoffrey Heard C 2003. Anyone is free to circulate this document provided
    > it is complete and in its current form with attribution and no payment
    > is asked. It is prohibited to reproduce this document or any part of it
    > for commercial gain without the prior permission of the author. For such
    > permission, contact the author at
    > gheard@surf.net.au.
    >
    > 'The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq: A Macroeconomic and
    > Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth' by W. Clark, January 2003
    > (revised 20 February), Independent Media Center, www.indymedia.org
    >
    > http://www.indymedia.ie/cgi-bin/newswire.cgi?id=28334" This war is
    > about more than oil. OIL DOLLARS!!!! DOLLARS, THE EURO AND WAR IN
    > IRAQ. This story is based on material posted by Richard Douthwaite on
    > the FEASTA list in Ireland.
    >
    > http://sf.indymedia.org/news/2002/12...nt.php#1551138
    > USA intelligence agencies revealed in plot to oust Venezuela's
    > President Washington Post Split Screen In Strike-Torn Venezuela By
    > Mark Weisbrot Sunday, January 12, 2003; Page B04
    >
    > http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html Asia Times online:
    > Global Economy US dollar hegemony has got to go By Henry C K Liu
    > http://www.feasta.org/energy.htm
    > http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/EnemyWithin.html
    > The Observer
    > The Enemy Within
    > by Gore Vidal London, Sunday 27 October 2002
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

    Bring back Rocketman!

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