It's all to play for...

[Bungle]

1 (7) Germany - - - 5 13 2.600 5 13 2.600
2 (1) Netherlands 12 32 2.667 6 14 2.333 18 46 2.556
3 (8) Croatia 10 24 2.400 5 13 2.600 15 37 2.467
4 (6) Sweden 10 24 2.400 5 12 2.400 15 36 2.400
5 (11) Poland 10 24 2.400 7 16 2.286 17 40 2.353
6 (3) Portugal 12 30 2.500 6 11 1.833 18 41 2.278
7 (2) England 10 25 2.500 6 11 1.833 16 36 2.250
8 (4) Czech Rep 12 27 2.250 6 13 2.167 18 40 2.222
9 (9) Italy 10 23 2.300 5 10 2.000 15 33 2.200
10 (21) Ukraine 12 25 2.083 5 12 2.400 17 37 2.176
11 (5) France 10 20 2.000 5 12 2.400 15 32 2.133
12 (10) Turkey 12 23 1.917 5 13 2.600 17 36 2.118
13 (13) Romania 12 25 2.083 5 11 2.200 17 36 2.118
14 (15) Serbia 10 22 2.200 6 11 1.833 16 33 2.063
15 (16) Russia 12 23 1.917 5 11 2.200 17 34 2.000
16 (14) Greece 12 21 1.750 5 12 2.400 17 33 1.941
17 (12) Spain 10 20 2.000 5 9 1.800 15 29 1.933
18 (27) Israel 10 18 1.800 6 11 1.833 16 29 1.813
19 (17) Denmark 12 22 1.833 4 7 1.750 16 29 1.813
20 (18) Switzerland 10 18 1.800 - - - 10 18 1.800
21 (22) Slovakia 12 23 1.917 6 9 1.500 18 32 1.778
22 (24) Rep Ireland 10 17 1.700 7 13 1.857 17 30 1.765
23 (19) Norway 10 18 1.800 5 7 1.400 15 25 1.667
24 (20) Bulgaria 10 15 1.500 5 9 1.800 15 24 1.600
25 (28) Scotland 10 13 1.300 6 12 2.000 16 25 1.563
26 (23) Bosnia-Herz 10 16 1.600 5 7 1.400 15 23 1.533
27 (32) Finland 12 16 1.333 6 11 1.833 18 27 1.500
28 (31) Austria 10 15 1.500 - - - 10 15 1.500
29 (42) N Ireland 10 9 0.900 6 13 2.167 16 22 1.375
30 (30) Hungary 10 14 1.400 5 6 1.200 15 20 1.333
31 (25) Belgium 10 12 1.200 6 7 1.167 16 19 1.188
32 (40) Belarus 10 10 1.000 5 7 1.400 15 17 1.133
33 (26) Latvia 12 15 1.250 4 3 0.750 16 18 1.125
34 (29) Slovenia 10 12 1.200 5 4 0.800 15 16 1.067
35 (33) Estonia 12 17 1.417 5 0 0.000 17 17 1.000
36 (36) Albania 12 13 1.083 5 3 0.600 17 16 0.941
37 (34) Wales 10 8 0.800 5 6 1.200 15 14 0.933
38 (35) Lithuania 10 10 1.000 5 4 0.800 15 14 0.933
39 (39) FYR Macedonia 12 9 0.750 6 7 1.167 18 16 0.889
40 (38) Georgia 12 10 0.833 6 6 1.000 18 16 0.889
41 (45) Liechtenstein 12 8 0.667 5 3 0.600 17 11 0.647
42 (43) Cyprus 10 4 0.400 6 4 0.667 16 8 0.500
43 (41) Armenia 12 7 0.583 5 1 0.200 17 8 0.471
44 (48) Malta 10 3 0.300 5 4 0.800 15 7 0.467
45 (37) Iceland 10 4 0.400 5 3 0.600 15 7 0.467
46 (46) Azerbaijan 10 3 0.300 6 4 0.667 16 7 0.438
47 (44) Moldova 10 5 0.500 6 2 0.333 16 7 0.438
48 (50) Kazakhstan 12 1 0.083 6 5 0.833 18 6 0.333
49 (47) Andorra 12 5 0.417 5 0 0.000 17 5 0.294
50 (49) Faroe Isles 10 1 0.100 6 0 0.000 16 1 0.063
51 (51) San Marino 10 0 0.000 5 0 0.000 15 0 0.000
52 (52) Luxembourg 12 0 0.000 5 0 0.000 17 0 0.000
53 (--) Montenegro - - - - - -


Realistically, we should get third seeds. To get second seeds we'd probably have to take 7 points from Germany,Slovakia and Czech Republic + win the games against Wales and Cyprus.

[Bungle]

I don't think the above icludes the home games with Slovakia and Wales.

[Bungle]

oh wait it does!

[tetsujin1979]

This is the group table from the same point in the last set of qualifiers:

Team          Pd    W    D    L    GF   GA   Pts
Ireland        7    3    4    0    11    4    13
Switzerland    6    3    3    0    13    4    12
Israel         7    2    5    0    10    8    11
France         6    2    4    0    5     1    10
Cyprus         6    0    1    5    4    12     1
Faroe Islands  6    0    1    5    3    17     1

we still had to play France and the Swiss at home and Cyprus away
Arguably the home fixtures are easier this time around, obviously the away fixtures are far more difficult. The World Cup group is far more open than the current one. At the same point it was any 2 from 4, at the moment while Slovakia and Wales are still there or thereabouts, they have a far harder run in than we do, so realistically it's any 2 from us, the Germans or the Czechs, both of whom we still have to play.
I'd expect Germany to run away with it, leaving the away game against the Czechs as what turn out to be the decider.

[Stuttgart88]

Looking at that, what would the same twits who cited Kerr as a "miracle worker" after beating Georgia and getting 4 points from Albania say about losing out after that position?

[youngirish]

Looking at that, what would the same twits who cited Kerr as a "miracle worker" after beating Georgia and getting 4 points from Albania say about losing out after that position?

True Kerr didn't know how to win games. At least with Staunton we seem to go for it even though sometimes we get hammered because of it. Staunton has better players overall than Kerr had though IMO.

[paul_oshea]

tets that tables says all along, look at france with 10 and in 4th place, points mean nothing, its who you have played, when in the qualifying stage and where that are important, and that right there is proof.

bungle are you a schizo or are you just having a little conversation with your alter ego?

[tetsujin1979]

Looking at that, what would the same twits who cited Kerr as a "miracle worker" after beating Georgia and getting 4 points from Albania say about losing out after that position?

The table is a little misleading, France had a game in hand over us against the Faroes at home, and also had to play Cyprus at home.
The Swiss also had a game in hand - Cyprus away, and Israel had to play the Faroes twice.
A more realistic look to the table would be this (taking into account the remaining games for all teams against the Faroes and Cyprus were wins):

Israel 17
France 16
Ireland 16
Switzerland 15

[paul_oshea]

The current group is far more open than the World Cup one

how do you make that out?

stuts who were the twits? are they the other two that make up the TW*Ts?

whats wrong with the word that begins with the letter T and ends with T and has WA in the middle?

[tetsujin1979]

how do you make that out?

D'oh, got confused, post edited

[Bungle]

Nah I'm a schizo.If you worked with Zippy,George and Geoffrey you would be too.

[Stuttgart88]

stuts who were the twits?

The uninformed man in the street, prompted by daytime radio idiots, who saw that we lost our first 2 deals but 3games later thought we were in pole position again. I lost count the number of times I heard people who wouldn't look twice at Robbie Keane if he was playing keepy uppy in their garden commenting on how brilliant Kerr had done to get us back into the mix & how much of a nob Mick was.


I think my point is that on the face of it it looked like we were in good shape but we had left points on the table that would have had us out of sight. It's the other way around now in a way. Despite having done our best to eliminate ourselves we're still in with a shout.

[tetsujin1979]

group D permutations table: http://tetsujin1979.googlepages.com/groupD.html
Be warned, there's a lot of assumptions, and the permutations table is huge, even after assuming the results of several games
It's not easy to read, but there you go

[eirebhoy]

I don't agree with hoping germany hammer slovakia tonite. I believe its much better to have the possibility of getting one of two places rather than germany running away with the group. If germany did lose tonite (but i dont think they will) we would still be within touching distance of them also.

I understand your logic that slovakia mite not be up for it against us if they lose tonite, but at the same time the czechs still have to play them also so i think whatever form theyre in against us they will be the same against the czechs (good or bad).

So I'm supporting the slovakians tonite cos i believe if they win two places are up for grabs instead of one. especially as germany aren't great by any stretch

I don't think there's much doubt that Germany will qualify.

Betting is about winning the money. If you lose it matters little what odds you got.

It's about finding value. If you're getting 5/4 on a flip of a coin then eventually you'll return a profit. If a team is evens to win a match but you think they've more chance of winning than not winning then you should take the evens. Anyway, I don't see much value in Ireland winning the thing. Steve Staunton winning the European championships...

Anyway, one thing I don't understand is many/most people think we've a better chance of winning in Slovakia than beating Germany. I really think we will beat Germany if we're still in with a good shout by then and have most of our players available. 95% of my bets are on home teams, for good reason.

[eirebhoy]

1-0 Germany in tonights game!

[SuperDave]

If the Czechs are 25/1 and England are 10/1 then 150/1 represents great value for money IMO. Do I think we will win it? No we probably won't even qualify but I'd say if we do (and we've a decent chance) then we have as good chance of winning it as most of the teams in it with some notable exceptions (Italy and France spring to mind).

I'm also optimistic that if we did qualify we'd have a better team next summer than we've had this year with Stokes, Long, S Quinn, O'Dea, Mc Shane, St Ledger, Garvan, J O'Brien, S Kelly and Ireland all having another season under their belts.

what represents great value for money at those odds is laying against the the english on betfair.

[SuperDave]

This is the least we should expect bearing in mind how well results have gone for us in this group. Forget about catching Germany we are not going to do it. It is crucial for us that they win all their remaining games, except of course, the one against us.

yeah, because no matter what in this group, we're virtually guaranteed to finish second. would you rather go to wales in a 24-21-18 situation, with ireland on 21, or a 21-21-21 situation? i know which one i'd pick (i know this is really unlikely, but the fact of the matter is the less points the team in third have, the easier it is to finish second)

[SuperDave]

This is the group table from the same point in the last set of qualifiers:

Team          Pd    W    D    L    GF   GA   Pts
Ireland        7    3    4    0    11    4    13
Switzerland    6    3    3    0    13    4    12
Israel         7    2    5    0    10    8    11
France         6    2    4    0    5     1    10
Cyprus         6    0    1    5    4    12     1
Faroe Islands  6    0    1    5    3    17     1

we still had to play France and the Swiss at home and Cyprus away
Arguably the home fixtures are easier this time around, obviously the away fixtures are far more difficult. The World Cup group is far more open than the current one. At the same point it was any 2 from 4, at the moment while Slovakia and Wales are still there or thereabouts, they have a far harder run in than we do, so realistically it's any 2 from us, the Germans or the Czechs, both of whom we still have to play.
I'd expect Germany to run away with it, leaving the away game against the Czechs as what turn out to be the decider.

slovakia v san marino
san marino v slovakia

hum de dum (murmurs to self)

[SuperDave]

group D permutations table: http://tetsujin1979.googlepages.com/groupD.html
Be warned, there's a lot of assumptions, and the permutations table is huge, even after assuming the results of several games
It's not easy to read, but there you go

do you get out much?

[tetsujin1979]

slovakia v san marino
san marino v slovakia

hum de dum (murmurs to self)

remaining Slovakia fixtures

Germany		06/06/07	Slovakia	
Slovakia	08/09/07	Republic of Ireland	
Slovakia	12/09/07	Wales	
Slovakia	13/10/07	San Marino	
Czech Republic	17/11/07	Slovakia	
San Marino	21/11/07	Slovakia

hmmm....Germany 2-1 up at the moment
hard to call the game with ourselves
Away to the Czechs - local derby, and all that entails
After tonight, Wales will be 2 points behind with a game in hand, and still have to go to Slovakia, with revenge on their mind from the hockeying they took in Cardiff
San Marino should be a cakewalk alright, it's the game to be facing into at the end of the campaign

do you get out much?

bite me