Who will form the Government?

Originally Posted by Dodge

84 for a majority
166 in total

No, its 83. The Ceann Comhairle doesn't vote except in a tie.

Originally Posted by crc

No, its 83. The Ceann Comhairle doesn't vote except in a tie.

True but 84 is better because you can vote in a Ceann Comhairle from your party. If you've 83 you need to convince someone from the other side to take the job.

According to the news this morning FFs prefered option is to put a deal together with PDs and independents. But it's hit a snag already.

Fragrant Beverly Cooper Flynns chickens are on their way up the drive in the form of a bankruptcy order being sought by RTE against her (Irish Mail On Sunday). If RTE succeed her stay in the 30th Dail will be shorter than if she'd paid into the the public gallery.

Couldn't happen to a nicer, genuine, more sincere person ...except her Da maybe.

Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie

Fragrant Beverly Cooper Flynns chickens are on their way up the drive in the form of a bankruptcy order being sought by RTE against her (Irish Mail On Sunday). If RTE succeed her stay in the 30th Dail will be shorter than if she'd paid into the the public gallery.

Can you not serve in the Dail if bankrupt? Last I heard was 2m? She lost that case it think...?

Originally Posted by pete

Can you not serve in the Dail if bankrupt? Last I heard was 2m? She lost that case it think...?

I'm virtually certain a bankrupt cannot sit in Dail Eireann. I'm not sure whether she'd have to relinquish her seat but she'd have no vote and is therefore of no use to an administration relying on her support.

With regards to the independents:

Healy-Rae can and has been brought into support of the government before and he has FF history. Could Fine Gael buy him over with a super-highway to Killarney or something?

Tony Gregory did it in 1982, it might require another 'Gregory deal' but with him sharing the same constituency as the Taoiseach that may not be too problematic. I assume FG could buy him over just as easily.

I don't know much about Finian McGrath, what's his ticket?

Beverly Flynn has as good said she'd do a deal with either side. There's problems with her outlined in the post above.

Lowry is FG gene pool but he's not the most principled chap. Could FF buy him too if needed or would his roots not let him do that?

Enda Kenny can only be Taoiseach if he takes the PDs or SF into the rainbow as well as winning over at least one independent. But unless Bertie or Enda have one or two to spare at least then the government could be brought down by a by-election.

Originally Posted by Poor Student

Enda Kenny can only be Taoiseach if he takes the PDs or SF into the rainbow as well as winning over at least one independent. But unless Bertie or Enda have one or two to spare at least then the government could be brought down by a by-election.

For Enda Kenny to be Taoiseach he would need to convince the PDs and Greens that better to go with him than more stable FF government.

FG+Labour+Green = 77
+ PDs = 79

Needs all 5 Independents. I think Lowry (tell him he is a nice man), McGrath (build him a hospital) & even Healy-Rae (South Kerry Turnpike) could be bought off. Flynn may not even be a TD for much longer & if a by-election run FG could actually win that as they 53% of the vote in Mayo. Tony Gregory could be bought off easily too.

Be very surprised if Greens or PDs turned down FF for that sort of rainbow.

If FF go with the PDs they need 4 Independents which could be difficult especially as Bertie is talking so much about stability.

By the way, I meant if they got SF on board they'd need one but that's a wrong calculation on my part. They'd need two more. I know FG + SF isn't a likely combination but just putting every possibility out there.

Finian McGrath, Gregory and Healy-Rae will support Fianna Fail. Beverly Flynn also provided she can stave off Bankruptcy. I doubt if the Tiocfaidhs will support Fine Gael. That gives FF/PD/INDO'S 84 plus a parachute from Sinn Fein. I think there are some in Labour who don't like the idea of doing business with FG, Howlin in particular.

Originally Posted by onceahoop

I doubt if the Tiocfaidhs will support Fine Gael.

Are you kidding? They'd jump into bed with anyone who'd give them the time of day.

I don't think Howlin has a problem doing a deal with FG per se, I think he just doesn't like the idea of not fighting a campaign by themselves to maximise their own vote.

Originally Posted by Poor Student

I think he just doesn't like the idea of not fighting a campaign by themselves to maximise their own vote.

Anyone else find the Labour moaning annoying. They entered into a pact & it did not work out. Its a bit rich of some Labour TDs coming out moaning about it not considering I presume it was a democratic decision to enter into in the first place. I still believe some of the ambigious comments by some Labour about going into government did not help them as on election day the majority of people seemed to vote for status quo or change.

That's politics, Pete. The bigger the party the more bitching and backstabbing that will emerge. Obviously some people have designs on Pat Rabbitte's position. I see John Deasey quoted as saying FG didn't do well and a change of leadship would give them new energy. Wonder who he has in mind?

Enda Kenny has formally ruled out a deal with SF. RTE also said he 'does not accept he's an outside chance for Taoiseach'. I assume that means he's given up?

It looks to me like it will be FF, PD and the Indies. Does anyone else think it's a disgrace that a party(PD's) which has been decimated in the election is more than likely to find itself back in Government ? I know "that's politics" as the cliche goes, and it's all about the numbers, but still. I can't help thinking it's outrageous. Looking up the results on Aertel, the PD's got a poxy 56,000 first preference votes. And this entitles them to govern ?

BTW, on the Labour Party moaners, it's obvious that this is the section of the party who are not hapy with Rabbitte as he's not a traditional Labour man and see this as their chance to heave against him. After the last election they were saying that the fact they had no pact with FG was what cost them.

As for Deasy - LOFL.What a plonker he is.

Originally Posted by TonyD

It looks to me like it will be FF, PD and the Indies. Does anyone else think it's a disgrace that a party(PD's) which has been decimated in the election is more than likely to find itself back in Government ? I know "that's politics" as the cliche goes, and it's all about the numbers, but still. I can't help thinking it's outrageous. Looking up the results on Aertel, the PD's got a poxy 56,000 first preference votes. And this entitles them to govern ?

No more disgraceful that Berties buddy Cyprian Brady getting elected off 900 (2.7%) first preference votes in Dublin Central. Even with transfers he did not make the quota of around 6,900.

I sensed a lot of anti-PD feeling even among FF voters. Will they be happy to take the PDs back in?

If PDs come in Harney will keep Health as suits FF. Who will take Justice? Dermot Ahern to risk his reputation with a tough ministry?

Originally Posted by TonyD

Does anyone else think it's a disgrace that a party(PD's) which has been decimated in the election is more than likely to find itself back in Government ? I know "that's politics" as the cliche goes, and it's all about the numbers, but still. I can't help thinking it's outrageous. Looking up the results on Aertel, the PD's got a poxy 56,000 first preference votes. And this entitles them to govern ?

I think it just shows the tightness of the margins in which the smaller partys live -and indeed by which even the larger ones rule. The PDs number of seats has been quartered but their number of first preference votes only fell by somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000.

I find it far more galling that, as indicated by Pete, the likes of Cyprian Brady can get a vote that puts him down with the yogic flyers in the Natural Law party and still get's to be a TD. But that's the system.

It would be a disgrace if the PD's got in on the back of 2 seats. The people have said that they don't want the PD's to govern anymore, so why haven't FF got the message yet?

Still think it will be FF + Labour, but probably best for the country would be FF + Inds.

Enda, concede defeat ffs, and go back to the drawing board.

Originally Posted by mypost

Still think it will be FF + Labour, but probably best for the country would be FF + Inds. .

IMO no chance but hey its politics.

Greens look like will bargain hard which may be forcing FF in the PD, Indo alliance...

One point about the FF/PD/Independent option is that it's not necessarily that stable- Flynn has problems and Healy Rae is an old man and may not last the five years. Lowry might be a loose cannon. Gregory would ask for a lot.

On the other handy Healy Rae and his supporters could probably be most easily bought off simply by providing them with access to modern dentistry.

I think in the end it'll be FF-Green.

Originally Posted by pete

No more disgraceful that Berties buddy Cyprian Brady getting elected off 900 (2.7%) first preference votes in Dublin Central. Even with transfers he did not make the quota of around 6,900.

He didn't get elected off 900 first preference votes. He got elected because of the massive amount of other people giving him a second preference knowing that Bertie was safe on the first count.

It's a remarkable result and it will have civics teachers rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of a juicy example to explain PR STV with, but it's hardly "disgraceful".