Who will form the Government?

**OneRedArmy** · 25/05/2007, 3:24 PM

Can a poll be added as to who people think will form the coalition (or if FF will get in on their own).

Suggest its:
FF only
FF + Labour
FF + Green
FF + Independents
FF + PD
FF + SF
None of the above.

I'm going with FF plus the Greens.

**Poor Student** · 25/05/2007, 3:28 PM

I'm going with FF + Greens too, but far from certain. I feel as long as a possibility exists that isn't SF they'll go for it, but I think they will be a reluctance against Labour too due to the ministerial positions they'd have to give up. If the PDs can avoid total meltdown and make 4/5 then throw in a few independents and you could see the status quo returned more or less. Gormley v McDowell could play a big part.

**Mr A** · 25/05/2007, 3:30 PM

I'm guessing FF with the remaining PD's, or if they don't make it then a few independents will do. Labour would cost them too many cabinet positions and they don't really need them.

**John83** · 25/05/2007, 3:37 PM

Yeah, FF/Labour is looking unlikely with FF doing well enough not to need nearly that many seats from a partner. I'm hoping that the PDs have been beaten up by the electorate hard enough to be useless to FF, leaving the Greens the best option.

**Poor Student** · 25/05/2007, 3:39 PM

Originally Posted by John83

Yeah, FF/Labour is looking unlikely with FF doing well enough not to need nearly that many seats from a partner. I'm hoping that the PDs have been beaten up by the electorate hard enough to be useless to FF, leaving the Greens the best option.

I think the PDs have been given a black eye but fall short of receiving a knockout blow. Liz O'Donnell is conceding.

**Dodge** · 25/05/2007, 4:46 PM

Originally Posted by Poor Student

I think the PDs have been given a black eye but fall short of receiving a knockout blow. Liz O'Donnell is conceding.

Gormley v McDowell is going down to the wire. I don't think I'd stop laughing for a week if McDowell lost his seat, again

**pete** · 25/05/2007, 5:17 PM

No use having a poll at this stage until the results come in. A vote now could be invalid in a few hours...

**Poor Student** · 26/05/2007, 12:45 AM

So where are we heading? FF are looking like 78-80 now I think. Greens look like the ideal number to help them bridge the gap although FF/PD coalition in minority government with FF gene pool independents could also work like in 1997. The only other possibility I can see is FF minority with independents.

**Dodge** · 26/05/2007, 12:46 AM

FF looking to get 78 tops

Greens on RTE recently far from dismissive of the idea of a coalition with FF

**Poor Student** · 26/05/2007, 12:49 AM

Originally Posted by Dodge

FF looking to get 78 tops

Greens on RTE recently far from dismissive of the idea of a coalition with FF

Dermot Ahern was on RTE radio around 7:30 talking up FF's environmental record and described himself as an environmentalist and said they were far from incompatible. The Green chairman came on after and said it would take more than "wishy-washy" talk to bridge the gap between them.

**pete** · 26/05/2007, 1:01 AM

If the numbers add up (including independent FF) i have no doubt Greens & FF will do business.

**pete** · 26/05/2007, 9:43 AM

Looking at the projected numbers the rainbow was only just off making the numbers which makes the bookies paying out on Bertie a bit premature...

FF 78
FG 51
Labour 20-21
Greens 6
SF 3-4
PD 2
Ind 5

FF + Green = 84

FG + Labour + Green = 78
Lowry, Gregory & McGrath would do business leaving them on 81.

Rainbow to add SF stripe?

**Poor Student** · 26/05/2007, 11:15 AM

Rainbow + SF + independents couldn't be on the cards. Too many agendas, too unstable.

If the Greens get into government it'll be a real test of their mettle. Going by their policies they should only settle for the Environment, Transport or Health portfolios. If they don't get at least one of those it'll be a very weak deal they'll have settled for. I wonder what would happen to cohabitation? Greens also on an anti corporate donations agenda.

**pete** · 26/05/2007, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by Poor Student

Greens also on an anti corporate donations agenda.

Stupid for Greens to suggest that would be a deal breaker already. Shows how they still have a lot to learn. FF banned Corporate donations is unthinkable. What would they do with those Galway races tents then?

FF can still add those couple of PDs plus independents so they don't need the Greens.

FG+Lab+Green+PD+Independent? The multi technicolour dream rainbow...?

**Poor Student** · 26/05/2007, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by pete

Stupid for Greens to suggest that would be a deal breaker already. Shows how they still have a lot to learn. FF banned Corporate donations is unthinkable. What would they do with those Galway races tents then?

FF can still add those couple of PDs plus independents so they don't need the Greens.

FG+Lab+Green+PD+Independent? The multi technicolour dream rainbow...?

I haven't seen TV today but from what I gather it's definitely 77 FF and 5 independents? That means they need 4 indepdents to bridge the gap. I know Flynn and Healy-Rae could be gotten onside but what about the others, Lowry in particular? Even at that it's hard to keep 4 onside with nowhere else to do a deal with. You're also at the mercy of the government collapsing on a by election. At least if FF lose one or two seats over the term when they have the Greens they can add in those independents.

**pete** · 26/05/2007, 11:47 AM

I think its predicted to be 78 + 6 Greens.

There are few sudo-FFers to pick from if they come up one short. They could always add the 2 PDs but that would probably kill the PD party...

Pat Rabbite being very cagey on RTE. He was asked straight Yes or No question & he said he'd have to go back to talk to the party.

I don't think FF would go with Labour as they would have to give up too many Minister mercs.

**osarusan** · 26/05/2007, 12:32 PM

how many seats needed for a majority? (pardon my ignorance but i've been away a while)

**micls** · 26/05/2007, 12:32 PM

Originally Posted by osarusan

how many seats needed for a majority?

83 i think

**Dodge** · 26/05/2007, 1:12 PM

84 for a majority

166 in total

**Sheridan** · 26/05/2007, 1:33 PM

If the Greens prop up FF, it's going to be the ultimate Pyrrhic victory. At the moment they pick up tons of transfers because they're seen as an inoffensive candidate for a protest vote or a possible component of a centre-left coalition. They're not going to exert enough influence on the next government to change those perceptions. I certainly wouldn't countenance giving them a preference as part of an outgoing FF administration, and I can't imagine many other non-FF voters would.