Originally Posted by beautifulrock
Not as easy at all to reposses homes in Ireland, some lawyers have made their very health livings out of opposing repos on numerous grounds but I'd agree with the general point you make
Oh no not them again
plus the high street banks are very reluctant to repossess because of the bad publicity; . Repossession stats in Ireland are very very low - no more than double figures every year I think.
the sub-prime sector has no such qualms though so that might change
Just to add further fuel to this. The ERSI says the averge price paid for a house has dropped 4.7% in the last twelve months. October produced the 8th successive decline in house prices. http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/1123/house.html Another year like this and we'll have a near 10% drop in two years.
Any chance we can please stop misquoting the PTSB/ESRI survey as being representative of house prices.
This index has been repeated rubbished (see earlier in thread) as it uses valuations rather than actual sale prices.
Actual prices falls are likely to be significantly higher as the ESRI index includes lots of properties with unrealistically high valuations that unsurprisingly haven't shifted and have no hope of shifting at the valuation price.
We are already over the 10% fall that you refer to. Well over in some areas.
Rant over.
I agree with you, ORA, but what else can we use? If the the ERSI is registering decreases it's at least an indication that prices are falling.
The only value of that report is when you compare with previous versions of it but debatable what use that is. That report shows a significant difference in property outside Dublin which probably makes sense as easier to travel an extra 10 miles (cheaper property) than it is in Dublin region.
I see one of the "leading" property firms has been running a fullpage ad in many papers over the last week stating that "there's never been a better time to buy"......
I'm not au fait with misleading advertising laws but this strikes me as being on the verge of being as such (not to mention in all probability being plain inaccurate).
Market consensus now appears to be sustained falls across the board through 2008, with recovery in 2009.
But why would you believe a body of opinion who have continued to be wrong throughout this year and many of whom are openly admitting they "underestimated the negative sentiment"? Particularly when the Economist and many other international publications have been warning about Ireland's bubble for years (along with a few notable Irish economists, McWilliams among them).
Given commodity prices appear to be on a steep upward trajectory with no sign of reducing, are we in danger of stagflation?
Out of interest, who's predicting recovery in 2009, and on what basis?
Most of the usual suspects (bank and property company economists).
Tribune or Business Post (can't remember which) did a piece by 5 or 6 of the usual suspects yesterday.
Basis for recovery appeared to be relying on the following happening:
1) interest rate falls next year
2) drop in new housing stock means new demand from potential FTBs who are renting pushes prices up
3) rocketing rents lure Buy-to-Let investors back into the market
Personally I'm doubtful on one, and on two and three, I can't seem to reconcile the huge number of empty apartments in Dublin (per census and other studies) with the rocketing rents that apparently we are seeing.
Apparently developers are starting to rent unsold new apartments to help cashflow (Gasworks cited as an example).
I see the Indo, one of the main papers for talking up the market, don't even bother to do so anymore. For the last few weeks they've begun to print doom and gloom articles. See here: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/an...m-1254826.html
The "Ah sure, wait for the autumn selling season" and "Ah sure, wait until the spring 2008 season" have been replaced by admissions that the slump will last well into 2009 at least. A lot of papers were insisting that ECB rates will drop soon too, that talk has kind of faded. If you ask me there's at least another 0.25% rate increase coming in the next few months. The ECB's main task is to control inflation and it's not coming down. Trichet even admitted that at a recent ECB council meeting there was support for putting the rates up.
It would take a foolish person to argue against the property market being Donald Ducked for the foreseeable future.
Here's an example of how the media, specifically Fox News, continues to try and blow smoke up the publics butt with regard to real estate. Isn't it great to live in a society where you can say anything you want, and be a pundit for whoever will pay you (whether you believe in the position or not), and you will never be held accountable for what you said?
The way they laughed at Peter Schiff(one smart dude!) in both the 1/07 and 1/08 clips reminds me of how they laugh at Ron Paul. Discredit them by laughing -- makes you look cool, and Joe Public will take your side ('cause we know he's not gonna investigate the facts for himself).
Next time you hear someone on (Insert your favourite here) pumping up the stock market or housing market, remember this lesson.
Did you ever notice that in every painting of Adam & Eve, they have belly buttons. Think about that...take as long as you want.
I switched off when I saw the overlay saying "doesn't he look like a cross between" yadda yadda. This is supposed to be more credible than Fox News? Please.
I have no time for Fox News, but if the person that made that video wants intelligent people to watch it, they should drop that kind of childish idiocy.
adam
Indeed, but I was just highlighting an underlying problem when it comes to the media and the US housing market.
Last edited by strangeirish; 08/01/2008 at 11:16 PM.
Did you ever notice that in every painting of Adam & Eve, they have belly buttons. Think about that...take as long as you want.
can anyone advise on the viabillity of buyiny a residential property in ireland at the moment.iwould like to hear informed opinions please
Depends on what you're trying to achieve. As an investment, to rent, to live in? Where? What size? What budget have you? Etc.
Informartive article here
Highlights.
- From November 2006 to 2007 prices fell 6% Nationwide (does not account for freebies included in prices)
- Dublin 2005-2006 prices increased 16%
- Dublin 2004-2005 prices increased 10%
- Number of mortgages issued have reduced 25%
Patience, Grasshopper.
Did you ever notice that in every painting of Adam & Eve, they have belly buttons. Think about that...take as long as you want.
At the moment, it is a very bad time to buy. Despite the fact that there is NO interest in 80% of residential properties most owners are refusing to reduce asking prices in the hope that the market recovers which is of course impossible.
The economy is in a state of emergency due to mis managemnt by our government members, external affairs not much better with the USA in a resession due to the various wars which helped fuel inflation over the last few years and basically things are bleak for employment.
Basically, don't buy anything for at least another 18 months. Your investment will be losing value by the day otherwise.
The deepest layer of human thinking and feeling somehow knows that God must exist - Pope Benedict XVI
No they didn't. Asking prices/valuations fell 6%. Which in a falling market is a woefully understated measure.
Sorry for banging on about the uselessness of the PTSB index, but what else would you expect a property lender to produce other than ridiculously overstated figures.
Likely drop is completion prices is more in the 10-15% space over 2007.
it must be noted how the commercial sector still has a major role to play in the sustainability and the stability of the residential market, aswel as the economy itself. Certain developments need to be as modern and regulated as possible to be on par with other major cities in the EU which will in turn help the economy to become less dependent on 'property' itself, thus creating an equilibrium between the market values and the demand/supply ratios in the future. This is long term reality ~ at best! IMO
"Read not to contradict and confute, nor to believe and take for granted, nor to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider."
Posting Permissions
Quote
Bookmarks