Table 40, page 14.Originally Posted by MojoPin
http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/P...es%2031-40.pdf
adam
There supposed to be an insane amount of empty houses in Leitrim. 30% of all houses there I think?
Pete, you're also forgetting a fall in house construction means a fall in employment and the number of people with disposable income able to purchase a property lowering demand with supply.
Also the number of people in the country needing a house - I presume a lot of the foreign workers will be let go and will return home as the construction industry contracts.
Of course they will, a lot of them already have. (A friend's father and brother run a busy timber-frame construction firm in Cork, I'm not just speculating.)
adam
I think it was Leitrim @ 30% alright. You would have Leitrim as a sparsely populated country like Longford always has lots of empty cottages. 200k empty homes is 12% of the total homes in the State. How do they classify an empty home? Is an apartment/house that is still in construction deemed vacant? Anyone got the figures from the previous census?
Its also fairly clear from the figures that claims that only 3% are holiday homes is hopelessly low.
All the data is on the CRO website pete, have a look yourself. I don't know who you're referencing with 3%, the CRO number is 20% circa. Houses under construction aren't included in that figure, or holiday homes. Again, you're clutching at straws, and I'll be honest with you, it's starting to look like trolling now.
adam
The last two years of property discussions is becoming tiresome, too sum it up I think we're just in another stage of national progression the great property boom of the mid 90's to mid 00's is over, we're in a new phase of progress and adjustment culturally and financially, we're a young progressive nation attracting both unskilled and skilled workforce from all over Europe making Ireland a more diverse interesting country for it, the Service sector is booming, our infrastructure improves with every year..the hoards in Sunday Indo regularly and in an imbalanced fashion have been screaming out headlines the last few months which if believed we would all be all the dole crews next year, so what if jimmy made a fortune buying and selling propery in the last few years and greedy builders and Estate Agents in all their detestable glory made a fortune,We live in a capilist democratic country where Darwin laws exist..If you made money fair play to you enjoy it prosper and enjoy this country, we spent so much time building the UK and USA, what would our ancestors given to have had such opportunities that now exist in our little Island, so stop gripping and talking up a Crash move on, be optimistic and think outside the box!
I don't care one way or the other & we probably way off topic. There is no need to suggest a troll just because you disagree.
Maybe I am looking at incorrectly but I see Table 40 says:
- 1.769m homes in the state.
- 50k unoccupied holiday homes.
The figures don't show how many occupied holiday homes but i would be surprised if 6-7 times more occupied on a Sunday night than unoccupied?
2002 figures http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/vol13_entire.pdf but I can't find the same table. Seems there were 1.25m homes in 2002 though.
Last edited by pete; 07/09/2007 at 10:25 PM.
Just to put things in perspective. In my neighbourhood in North Culchie Dublin a three bedroom semi is selling for €370k. I believe it was bought in the early eighties new for £29k = €37k aprox. In the mid to late 80's house's in this estate couldn't sell for €25k. All we're seing now is a levelling off in the market. Supply and demand, low interest rates -v- higher interest rates. But remember this, in the mid eighties interest rates were over 17% and the high rate of tax was 60% IMO we're a lot better off now than then. It's just that people have become more materialistic and want want want, and there are a lot of people out their willing to lend them the funds to do it come hell or high water.
"Look at them. They're all out of step except my son Johnny"
Mrs. Delaney
Enough with the trolling pete. You know damn well that CA is for serious discussion only, and you're not above the rules. Knock it on the head, now, or I'll toss you out of this forum like I'd toss anyone else out.
adam
Last edited by dahamsta; 08/09/2007 at 2:29 PM.
If you have problem PM me. I am using facts to argue my point.
The CSO figures you linked above show 15% vacant properties including holiday homes. When you take holiday homes out of the numbers it is 12% (approx 210,000 properties). Where is this 20% figure?
Back on topic. There is no doubt there is drop in new homes being build but does this mean the country about to fall into a recession? I don't think the facts back this up yet but maybe they will change...
4.6-4.7% unemployment is basically full employment.
Even 6% is not a recession.Companies in the construction sector are still hoarding workers, but those job losses have been postponed rather than cancelled, they said in a research note. House completions have started to fall (-35% yoy in July), so workers are bound to be laid off it said.
He expects an unemployment rate of 5.1% by the end of the year, ticking up to 6% by the end of 2008.
Apologies pete, we're at cross-purposes here. You said:
I see now that you were talking about 3% of homes in the state, I thought you were trying to claim that 3% of vacant homes were holidays homes. That's where my 20% comes from (50k in 250k).Its also fairly clear from the figures that claims that only 3% are holiday homes is hopelessly low.
I still think you're trolling though. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks to me like you're still suggesting a "soft landing", in complete denial of the market, and zero evidence for such a thing having happened any place at any time in history. Why don't you address that with evidence of a previous occurence and prove you're not trolling? (On that topic, there's a difference between someone saying something disagreeable and someone saying something stupid. Trolling is when someone intelligent says something stupid. QED.)
(Again though, apologies for the above. It really was a misunderstanding.)
adam
Last edited by dahamsta; 08/09/2007 at 7:23 PM.
Unfortunately crashes aren't defined by assessing property price movements over generations. I'd also be surprised that the area you quoted suffered a fall in value between the start and the end of the eighties, as property prices in Ireland are generally accepted to have only fallen once, by a very small amount (1.6%?) in the last 35 years. http://www.arandomwalk.com/wp-conten...use-prices.png
As in the UK, its the people that bought in the last few years, and who stretched (or lied) to afford a mortgage, that are in real danger. On a macro level its much more serious as property drove a large amount of the GDP growth in the last 5-10 years.
Prices did drop in my area in the 80's. Not for long mind you.
Construction has driven the economy over the last few years. The reduction in new house starts will inevitably lead to greater unemployment. Many of those who will become unemployed are migrant workers who will eventually have to move on. There is talk of major construction projects in England ahead of the 2012 Olympics. If they leave there will be a huge surplus of accommodation to rent leaving many investors stretched. Remember a lot of these investors are those who bought new homes and kept their first one to rent and pay their mortgage. There will also be knock on loss of employment in the supplies sector. Add all this to our inability to maintain competetiveness in the manufacturing industry and it doesn't paint a pretty picture. I read some years ago that Ireland would end up as a country of services. It could come true.
"Look at them. They're all out of step except my son Johnny"
Mrs. Delaney
The most advanced countries are 75-80% Services based.
I think the biggest threat to Irish competitiveness is the weak US dollar. If you are a US multinational you will see Irish wages increase every year even with no pay increases. This can be ok if the Irish based company if earning money is Euro but a disaster id supporting US based activities. The dollar - euro rate is likely to continue to get worse & we have no control over it.
I didn't think we had a manufacturing industry to be competitive in, unless you count a couple of thousand people in Limerick screwing the lids on computers, who are living on borrowed time
We've been a country of services for at least 15 years. Before that we were a country of farmers.
Broad generalisations, but ever since protectionist policies were dropped in the 60's and 70's we've never really made anything of substance.
These are figures for IDA companies.I didn't think we had a manufacturing industry to be competitive in, unless you count a couple of thousand people in Limerick screwing the lids on computers, who are living on borrowed time
We've been a country of services for at least 15 years. Before that we were a country of farmers.
Broad generalisations, but ever since protectionist policies were dropped in the 60's and 70's we've never really made anything of substance.
Total Employment by sector in IDA Ireland supported companies
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare - 20,207
Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) - 43,661
Engineering - 13,161
International & Financial Services - 51,021
Miscellaneous Industry -7,437
Many of the above jobs could be outsourced to lower cost base countries. We've sen some of this already.
However the IDA recognise the need for change. The following is an extract from theIr Website www.idaireland.com/home/business
"While production and manufacturing industries will continue to be the backbone of the Irish economy well into the future, IDA is also promoting Ireland as a location for a range of headquarter functions. A movement away from the industrial economy to the knowledge economy has caused a shift in the understanding of headquarter operations. Headquarters are no longer necessarily located with the manufacturing site and made up of the functions such as finance, strategy, marketing and human resources. Activities previously considered as cost centers are being converted to profit and wealth generation centers.
Headquarter Activities
Activities which are relevant for headquarter functions today include:
Research & Development
Sales and Marketing
Intellectual Property Management
Supply Chain Management
Shared Services/Contact Centres
Digital Media
Why Ireland for Headquarter Activities
IDA is promoting Ireland as an ideal location for headquarter activities because of its
pro-business environment
political stability
transparent tax regime
knowledge intensive skills and excellent telecommunications infrastructure"
Sorry for going off topic a bit but if our immigrant work force up sticks and go it will lead to problems in the housing market.
"Look at them. They're all out of step except my son Johnny"
Mrs. Delaney
Your perception of soft or hard landing obviously depends on your situtation. My house has doubled in the last four years so a drop in house price won't really effect me. its also my home here i intend staying for a long time & so view it as a long term investment. Its my second home so i'm seeing a soft landing. Now if you take someone thats just bought, lets say last year. Then they are could be looking at their house being worth less than they paid for it. For them thats a hard landing. Reality is, we probably will never see the same rate of growth. But if you view your house as a long term investment, you'll be ok in the long run.
I agree but when we reach the bottom there could be a surge back into the market due to people delaying first home purchase. I think investors will dry up but some people will still buy houses as its the correct location & they willing to rise out the fall in prices.
I think some prices may be inflated by developers giving away freebies as part of the deal. Its easy that selling houses lower than the you sold a few months ago.
I still lots of building in the Dublin City area. Developers are started to build on the gaps (derelict builds & such) as people will always want to buy close to the City. I am sure it will harder to sell property far from City without transport links as more options for buyers.
My favourite site of the minute, www.arandomwalk.com has spotted a devious scheme by one particular property website to, allegedly, try to obscure price drops in properties being advertised.
Interesting stuff and pathetic if they think this will pull the wool over peoples eyes.it appears that the site (myhome.ie) has started to display house prices as images rather than text. This is interesting because it impacts on two things
1. IrishPropertyWatch which provided very helpful statistics on price drops
2. It prevents people using google’s “cache” to find out whether houses had changed price in the past
I think it’s indicative of the property vested interests in this country who are running scared of the public finding out what is really going on in the market. We have to rely on the PTSB monthly reports which tell us property prices have fallen by a few %, when most observers know they’ve fallen by a lot more. We find ourselves in a situation where statistics from a couple of computer nerds and other amateurs are more reliable and timely than the “official” statistics - it’s an absurd situation for such an important industry.
Someone on the Sunday Business Show on Today FM yesterday made a great point that its exactly those people with vested interests who talked the economy/house prices (as they are so interlinked to be one and the same at the minute) up over the last decade who are howling now that we are talking ourselves into a recession.
So its okay to inflate the bubble but wrong to burst it?
Posting Permissions
Quote
Bookmarks