Property Crash

[drinkfeckarse]

For the record, I don't believe Ireland is in a bubble or ever was. All that happened was that we modernised. No need to assume there's a great big fall waiting for us.

[pete]

There may be one or two slight holes in the logic, but it works for me.

One or two?

If you think believe private ownership is a crime I suggest North Korea as the place for you to emigrate to.

[Jerry The Saint]

All Property is theft

Theft is a crime

Therefore, if property is dropping in value, the amount of theft drops in value too, thereby lowering the amount of crime

Therefore, plunging house prices means that Ireland is becoming a safer place to live.

Fianna Fáil Manifesto - Election 2012

[BohsPartisan]

For the record, I don't believe Ireland is in a bubble or ever was. All that happened was that we modernised. No need to assume there's a great big fall waiting for us.

Sorry did you miss this?

The current boom is based on an artificially inflated property market i.e. a bubble. It is unthinkable that it could continue to expand ad infinitum or even stabilise without deflating.

That is not opinion, it is fact. The fall in house prices is symptomatic of the @rse falling out of the economy i.e. a pin in the bubble.

[pete]

That is not opinion, it is fact. The fall in house prices is symptomatic of the @rse falling out of the economy i.e. a pin in the bubble.

I think it may be symptomatic that the Construction sector falling. In recent years that has taken bigger portion of the economy which makes us more exposed.

We are losing some manufacturing jobs but that was always likely as more people move into the Services sector. Its a bit like the move away from Agriculture in the past. I am not aware of any other sectors that suffering that much.

[BohsPartisan]

I am not aware of any other sectors that suffering that much.

What sectors do we have left? The manufacturing/export based boom that was The Celtic Tiger ended around the turn of the century. We were saved a fall by the property bubble. Chickens roost home coming to.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/

[pete]

What sectors do we have left? The manufacturing/export based boom that was The Celtic Tiger ended around the turn of the century. We were saved a fall by the property bubble.

- Pharmaceuticals
- IT
- Services
- Finance
- Tourism

Dell was mentioned recently as Irelands biggest employer but at half those jobs in sales, support & other services. Dell is more a manufacturing company than an IT company.

IT had a big boom followed by a significant withdrawal but is fairly busy for last few years.

Ireland never had a sizeable manufacturing sector. We have few heavy industry largely due to our colonial past.

[BohsPartisan]

- Pharmaceuticals
- IT

AKA manufacturing.

Services are being moved abroad - call centres in India etc. Finance is totaly reliant on the other sectors. Tourism, well we can't all dress up as leprechauns for a living.

250,000 people are employed directly in the construction industry. This doesn't even count auctioneers and all the other people who rely on the property market.

[pete]

AKA manufacturing.

IT = software & other services. Microsoft, Google, eBay to name high profile examples are not manufacturing companies. There are apparently 17,000 vacant IT jobs

Pharmaceuticals are not traditional manufacturing & not as price sensitive like say a toaster factory. This has been a large growth area for the last 5 years. The recent high profile announcement by Pfizer to let people go was worldwide decision & nothing to do with the irish economy - trials of a new drug failed so large drop in expected revenues.

There is no doubt as an economy we are exposed to the boom of the construction sector but Interest Rate rises will hopefully soften the downturn.
Call centres are minimal employer in Ireland & the trend is for call centres to move back from India.

As has always been the case the biggest threat to the Ireland economy is the World economy as we are so open & trade a lot. If EU Interest Rates are increasing it should mean the EU economy rising.

[BohsPartisan]

As has always been the case the biggest threat to the Ireland economy is the World economy as we are so open & trade a lot. If EU Interest Rates are increasing it should mean the EU economy rising.

As I said one eight of the population is employed directly in construction. If one eight of the population's livelyhood is in jeapordy then consumer spending decreases leading to a downturn in other sectors including services. If services are hit then so is IT. Anyway you look at it its bad news for the Irish.
You are right that we are linked to the World economy. The biggest factors in the world economy are China and the U.S.A. The construction industry is in freefall in the US and consumer spending is down. The US is Chinas biggest market for its cheap consumer goods. If US spending is down, the effects of that will be felt in China. The EU is not immune to what happens elsewhere in the world economy. I would also argue that we are more prone to infection from whatever affects the US as we never had a developed indiginous economy and have relied on the multinationals far too much.

[Magicme]

Kingspan Century cut jobs this week due to the "property crash" apparently.

[DvB]

Kingspan Century cut jobs this week due to the "property crash" apparently.

Timber frame manufacture was always likely to drop off, signs of this have been clear for a while. Our construction industry is largely based on traditional tried & trusted methods & is slow to embrace new methods on a large scale (trust me i'd love it to change & alot of architects are constantly pushing for this to happen), TF has had alot of negative press (some deserved, some not so) in the last couple of years with a number of developments being erected substandard leading to massive problems further down the line! The vast majority of home buyers over here are still extremely wary of investing in TF homes, this is now being reflected in the reduction of orders & hence loss of jobs!

If its any consolation its generally accepted the first people to see the pinch in the construction industry are the architects/planners, from my perspective whereas the amount of new work has dropped off, realistically all its really done is drop from the ridiculous levels of 2/3 years ago to a more acceptable level, if its to collapse its either a couple of years off yet or will do so in a massive 'Black' monday type scenario!!

[Peadar]

Kingspan Century cut jobs this week due to the "property crash" apparently.

Could it have anything to do with the fact that we don't tend to want wooden homes, in Ireland?

Anyway, I believe that our economy is like nothing we've ever known, in this country. We were over dependant on farming, which was never modern or efficient enough, to allow farms be run as businesses.

We've modernised, as a state and now have a work force which is very diverse and is willing to diversify. The idea of someone staying in the same job for 50 years, will be a thing of the past.

People rarely moved home, with some families living in the same house for generations. The extended family was a support network and families tended to live in close proximity to each other.

Improved wealth and transport has changed all that and moving jobs is very common. As a consequence, moving house is much more common, than it used to be.

The state isn't finished it's upgrade, with communication & transport infrastructure continually being improved. We now list Tourism as our leading indigenous industry and have increased numbers of people involved in the service industry.

There's no doubt that our circumstances will change again. It's inevitable, as we live in an ever changing world, but we've proved many times that we're durable & adaptable, so there's no reason to believe that we wont be able to cope with significant change.

[endabob1]

I'm no architect but aren't most modern houses built on a timber frame?

[Peadar]

I'm no architect but aren't most modern houses built on a timber frame?

Quite simply, no!

[dahamsta]

Quite a lot of them though, at least down here. I'd say a good 50% of the developments I see are of timber-framed houses.

adam

[endabob1]

I live in one which is why I asked the question, then again I live in Engerland so maybe it's more prevalent here. I know from my time in Oz virtually all modern houses there are timber framed.

[BohsPartisan]

Nearly sure that whole Tyrrelstown area is timberframe. Onghar anyway.

[DvB]

Nearly sure that whole Tyrrelstown area is timberframe. Onghar anyway.

Parts of each (ongar & Tyrellstown) are, a friends of mine worked for the Architectural firms reponsible for both developments, according to them there have been loads of problems with the TF causing problems!
TBH Its partly their feedback that gave me the impression things were starting to swing back to traditional methods, as they & their clients were predominantly pushing the TF method as an cheaper method of construction and now seem to be going back to the traditional concrete block forms of construction!

Another colleague/friend works for a Timber Frame manufacturer and said the same thing, simply that the orders were reducing in number at a rate far greater than the reduction in theamount of new homes being built per quarter!

TBH i'm not debating here the pro's & cons of the different methods of construction i'm merely pointing out some observations & feedback i've recieved through work based on Magicme's post that Century Homes have let people go! If someone has more nationwide detailed figures i'll happily stand corrected!

[dahamsta]

What problems though? Pointing out problems without actually pointing out problems is typical of those involved in the business!