Property Crash

[NeilMcD]

At the moment, it is a very bad time to buy. Despite the fact that there is NO interest in 80% of residential properties most owners are refusing to reduce asking prices in the hope that the market recovers which is of course impossible.

The economy is in a state of emergency due to mis managemnt by our government members, external affairs not much better with the USA in a resession due to the various wars which helped fuel inflation over the last few years and basically things are bleak for employment.

Basically, don't buy anything for at least another 18 months. Your investment will be losing value by the day otherwise.

Yeah I am holding off buying myself for the next 2 years as I am of the view that if I buy now my equity will just fade away by the day. Much better value to rent at the moment in my view.

[pete]

No they didn't. Asking prices/valuations fell 6%. Which in a falling market is a woefully understated measure.

Sorry for banging on about the uselessness of the PTSB index, but what else would you expect a property lender to produce other than ridiculously overstated figures.

Likely drop is completion prices is more in the 10-15% space over 2007.

I knew there was some report like that but could not remember which one. The fact the ESRI part of this fooled me. Is there any independent survey that record sale prices?

Interestingly some Irish guy who sits on EU Central Bank board (can't find link) said today that 6% fall was not accurate & closer to 15%.

Still not in crash mode. I think would need to see addition of people unable to offload property & does not seem enough people desperate enough yet. I would think this quiet time for home sales so might be more accurate come March-May? I feel would need prolonged recession to start this freefall.

[GavinZac]

Free fall away, lads, we'll probably be in the market this summer

[dahamsta]

I'm holding off myself for another year, but telling the OP not to buy is the wrong answer imho. Everyone has different circumstances; some people have to buy whether they like it or not. And you can't lose in a well thought-out long-term property buy.

adam

[GavinZac]

I don't know if this is the right thread for it but heard ads on the radio the other day advertising property in India. Apparently it rose as much as 70% last year and Meryll Lynch predict that will continue for the best part of a decade. Too good to be true? Surely if that was the case, anybody even considering investing in the irish property market (for profit rather than for a home) would have their heads turned?

[pete]

Any else noticed those adverts for mortgage agencies "no proof of income, bad credit history, let us get you a mortgage..."

If in those circumstances maybe should you really be taking out what is basically a 30-40 year loan at rates above high street banks?

If location is important & have permanent job for life as will to see home value fall in the near future then could be ok buying a home. As long as interest rates don't rise you would be ok.

[OneRedArmy]

Concerted effort in most of the papers over the last week to portray the property downturn as being effectively over.

Lots of the usual suspects being rolled out to recount stories of how new development launches are being overrun with people and selling out on the first day.

In actual fact the only reason the new supply is shifting is that the banks are forcing builders and developers to sell, regardless of price(many with c20% price drops from previous phases...)., to reduce their exposure.

The second hand market appears to still be dead, interesting whether this changes as we move into spring. The new market will always drop in price quicker as developers can't sit on stock forever whereas movers can sit almost indefinitely, which is what has happened over the last 18 months.

Personally I wouldn't touch the market yet given the wider economic concerns. Although at least interest rate increases don't seem as likely (people still woefully optimistic about ECB cutting rates though).

[dahamsta]

Rent prices seem to be going up again. I'm seeing silly money prices for 3 beds in Cork county, in the same region we were seeing 4 beds just a month or two ago. €900+ for a 3 bed is just ridiculous like.

adam

[Lionel Ritchie]

Rent prices seem to be going up again. I'm seeing silly money prices for 3 beds in Cork county, in the same region we were seeing 4 beds just a month or two ago. €900+ for a 3 bed is just ridiculous like.

adam

That's mad alright. My mortgage isn't much higher than that.

I'd say the Ritchies will be on the move in 2008. Houses that were out of our grasp less than a year ago (on asking price alone) are now starting to become achieveable. Wherever we go we'll likely be there for a decade or two so I'm not too worried about negative equity.

The house we've been in these last five years, in a local authority area, has (had more like) increased about 60% in value in that period but even if that all fell away (which it hardly will) between now and us leaving we'd have lived rent free for five years.

[dahamsta]

The Dahamstas are waiting another year, both because we feel it's right to wait, and because we have to whether we like it or not.

Moving again in two weeks time, to a house in the (rural) estate we're like to buy in next year. 5th move in 4 years. I reckon the next one'll have wheels on!

adam

[OneRedArmy]

Rent prices seem to be going up again. I'm seeing silly money prices for 3 beds in Cork county, in the same region we were seeing 4 beds just a month or two ago. €900+ for a 3 bed is just ridiculous like.

adam

I can grasp the fundamentals of everything else in the property market but I really don't understand rent increases, given the number of empty properties around the country.

Dublin has risen very strongly in the last 18 months. I have a rent review next month.

[Reality Bites]

The trend Continues, Manor Park dropped prices in their Hansfield Ongar Development by up to 80,000 for terraced house styles and Park Developments dropped there price by 100,000 for Leopardstown development, this follows on from the well documented drop by Capel Developments for phase 2 launch of Apartment scheme in Ashtown leaving very disgruntled phase 1 buyers with massive negative equity, expect other big guns to follow suit in the coming month the traditional spring launch will I suspect be another damp squib!!

[Poor Student]

I can grasp the fundamentals of everything else in the property market but I really don't understand rent increases, given the number of empty properties around the country.

Dublin has risen very strongly in the last 18 months. I have a rent review next month.

They're going to have to halt or reduce soon. With banks putting the squeeze on developers there's more and more properties going up for rent.

[monutdfc]

Looks like it has stared:

Cost of rent stops rising as supply doubles

THE number of rental properties available across the country has almost doubled in just one year.

It highlights the increasing pressure on the property market and signals how some are struggling to service their mortgage debts.

The survey, by property website Daft.ie, shows that it has directly resulted in a stagnation of rental prices for the first time in four years. The survey of rents in the last quarter of 2007 shows that the average rent nationwide remains unchanged at €1,388.

http://www.independent.ie/business/i...s-1288359.html

[dahamsta]

Heard on the radio earlier that the number of mortgages is down 22%, value of mortgages down 15%.

adam

[onceahoop]

The Dahamstas are waiting another year, both because we feel it's right to wait, and because we have to whether we like it or not.

Moving again in two weeks time, to a house in the (rural) estate we're like to buy in next year. 5th move in 4 years. I reckon the next one'll have wheels on!

adam

Moved once and won't be doing it again. The most stressfull thing I've ever been through and believe me, I've been through some.

Mind you, if your renting you probably don't have a lot to bring with you.

[dahamsta]

We have lots of crap and it increases every time, but not a lot of big furniture so it's not too bad. Plus I drive a van, and that makes things a lot easier.

I've allowed for two more moves, one to our first house and a second to the house we'll build. I think that's quite enough for anyone!

adam

[Paddyfield]

They're going to have to halt or reduce soon. With banks putting the squeeze on developers there's more and more properties going up for rent.

Rents in central locations will always be strong. One bedroom apartments without parking on Cork Street, Dublin 8 are €1,200.
Two bedroom Galway city centre apartments (without parking) can also fetch €1,200. Only 3 or 4 years ago, the same type of apartment in Galway would probably achieve €850. Madness.

However, in the outskirts of Galway like Knocknacarra (about 4km from city centre/2km from Salthill) there are lots of properties for sale and rent is reasonable. On www.daft.ie , you can get a large 2 bed apartment with parking for €850.

It's all relative to location.

[dahamsta]

What has location got to do with the general raising of rental prices we're talking about?

[Paddyfield]

What has location got to do with the general raising of rental prices we're talking about?

Rents are increasing in locations that are much sought after.
Rents are not increasing in areas that are not greatly sought after.