Can we still qualify?

**liam88** · 11/10/2006, 10:31 PM

If we win all our remaining games?

Or is it too late?

**Soper** · 11/10/2006, 10:33 PM

Too late I feel.Still think we might drop points against Wales and Slovakia, whilst earning draws against the big 2, at best.

**tricky_colour** · 11/10/2006, 10:43 PM

After Cyprus qualification looks remote, what would help is if either Germany or the Czechs take six points out of each other, that would give us a chance at the runners up spot. Oh yeah and we would probably have to win all our remaining games too, thats the really tricky bit

A few more shock results wouldn't do us any harm either, but it's hard to see San Marino beating Germany etc....
Would also help if Cyprus took some points off Germany or Czechs, 4 draws would be lovely

We need a strong ream to take points off the other teams to make up for the ones we have already lost, that might give us a chance as runner up.

**Colbert Report** · 12/10/2006, 1:26 AM

Germany have won four matches out of four so far. What we need is Germany to beat the Czechs twice and hopefully Cyprus, Wales and Slovakia can take some points off of the Czechs as well. I can't see us beating the Czechs away but if we can get a draw against them and a draw against the Germans at home, and win all our remaining matches then we should have a remote chance at second. Can't see it happening though, no way we'll take twelve points from Wales and Slovakia. Might be lucky to get six.

**drinkfeckarse** · 12/10/2006, 8:04 AM

Can we still qualify? Mathematically yes.

Will we still qualify? No.

**shakermaker1982** · 12/10/2006, 8:15 AM

If we beat San Marino (twice) and Wales at home we'll have 10 points. Were the Germans to beat the Czech's away then we'd be level on points with Koller and co but they'd have a game in hand.

We have a small chance - not likely but it'd take some famous wins over the Germans and a few away wins to make it happen.

**Dr. Ogba** · 12/10/2006, 8:59 AM

In a word....no

**endabob1** · 12/10/2006, 9:03 AM

Mathematically - Yes.
Realistically - No. Our only chance is for Germany to run away with the group, which they're doing a good job of so far. We would still need to beat Wales, Slovakia & San Marino Home & Away, Beat Cyprus at Home and pick something up against the Germans & Czechs in the other games. If we do all of that then we might scrape 2nd but realistically it's at best a scrap for 3rd with Wales & Slovakia or at worst a scrap for 5th with Cyprus!

**OwlsFan** · 12/10/2006, 9:10 AM

Saturday told us we probably wouldn't qualify. Last night not beating the Czechs at home confirms we won't. That's why I was so disappointed. Not with the performance but with the result. It meant yet another European campaign with no qualification. Realistically, we won't win in Prague. We won't beat Germany at home and we'll be doing well to pick up anything in Slovakia. Way too much ground to pick up on the Czechs.

Gutted.

For our seeding sake we must try and aim for 3rd place and even that is a big ask.

**NeilMcD** · 12/10/2006, 9:26 AM

We wont win in Prague cause we are not playing in Prague.

**OwlsFan** · 12/10/2006, 9:46 AM

Whether it's in Prague, Brno, Ostrava, Zl�n, Plzeň, Pardubice, Hradec Kr�lov�, Česk� Budějovice, Liberec, Olomouc or �st� nad Labem we won't win.

**Poor Student** · 12/10/2006, 10:08 AM

We might scrape 2nd place. We need the Germans to blitz their way to first beating everyone except ourselves at home to level things out. We'd need to beat the Czechs away or possibly draw and hope teams take points off them. We'd really need to be talking about beating Slovakia and Wales home and away and Cyprus at home to have any chance at all. Not to mention not screwing up the San Marino games.

**The Swordsman** · 12/10/2006, 10:16 AM

The timing of the remaining games is of some advantage to us.

The next two games are against San Marino home and away. Should get six points. Then we have Wales and Slovakia in Croker in March. No reason why we can�t get six points from these if we play the way we did last night.

We�ve no end of season games. This is a blessing as we generally don�t do well in these. Hopefully there will be no friendlies arranged so the winning streak can remain unbroken.

Then we�re away to Slovakia and Czech Republic next September. These games are the key and it depends on how the team has developed in the meantime but if we could get four points from these games, we would still be in with a shout. Looking at the Czechs last night, I�m not convinced that they�re anywhere near as good as the team that should have won Euro 2004.

In October we have Germany and Cyprus at home. Germany are the outstanding team in the group but we will have 70,000 packed into Croker for that game. The main problem for Ireland here is that Germany will have only played the Czechs once at this stage and are not likely to have qualified. They will play the Czechs the same night we play Cyprus � it�s a pity that those two rounds of matches weren�t the other way round. If they were, Germany may have qualified before they meet us. In any case, I think we need to win this one. We�ll need a huge performance and a lot of luck, a la Holland 2001. For the Cyprus game we�ll get sweet revenge for last weekend, so it�s Ireland 25 Cyprus 0 (Andy O�Brien with six hat tricks

).

Our last match next November is away to Wales. If we�re not out of contention at this stage, this will have the same significance as the NI game had in Nov. 1993.

As was said elsewhere, what we need to happen elsewhere is for Germany to beat everyone twice except us. I do believe this can happen. It would also help if the so called lesser teams such as Wales and Slovakia take points off the Czech Republic.

What people seem to forget is that the Cyprus defeat, horrible as it was, was only three points. We cannot afford another performance like that. Our performances need to be at least as good as last night to win against the lesser teams. It going to have to be even better against the bigger teams and I think it can be�remember last night�s squad were missing several key players.

Keep the faith.

**londonirish17** · 12/10/2006, 10:24 AM

No... I am afraid not... to late already.

**DeNiro** · 12/10/2006, 10:30 AM

While this sounds very optimistic I reckon there's a slight chance. In a year's time, the squad will be more experienced and Staunton will be as well. Maybe Bobby Robson (or his replacement) will be in place to help us. There are freak results in every international group. Ours will be no different. We've had our one, unfortunately against us. I reckon we will get one in our favour. Wales aren't up to much I think. I think it would be wise to play friendlies at every occasion though! But I suspect we are limited with the free weeks and Croke Park. Even 'B' internationals in Tolka / Dalymount would be of great benefit.

**bluemovie** · 12/10/2006, 10:45 AM

No chance. The group is pretty much wrapped up already with Germany and the Czechs in very strong positions. The hope when the draw was made was that teams would take points off the top seeds, but the Czechs went to Slovakia in September and won 3-0. The top two should cruise through with an almighty battle for third place.

**harps1954** · 12/10/2006, 11:04 AM

Although I am optimistic about the future after last night's performance, I don't think we'll qualify for the finals. I would ask the question . . are we good enough? Do we expect too much from our team?

So far we have played three games and picked up just one point from a home game and have lost both our away games. Where is the evidence on last night's performance that we can beat the Germans at home, beat Slovakia home and away and beat Wales home and away. I can see us getting full points against San Marino home and away and against Cyprus at home and possibly against Wales at home. After that, the best I can see us getting out of the other games is draws - just like last night. If we can finish third, I think it will be a good campaign.

People always talk on this message board about the last time we beat a top nation away from home in a competitive game, and most point to Scotland in 1987 (when Scotland were considered a top nation). I would also like to question when we last beat a top nation at HOME. Let's look back at the past campaigns:

Euro 2008 Qualifiers:
Czech Republic at home (drew 1-1)

WC 2006 Qualifiers:
Israel at home (drew 2-2)
France at home (lost 0-1)
Switzerland at home (drew 0-0)

Euro 2004 Qualifiers:
Switzerland at home (lost 1-2)
Russia at home (drew 1-1)

WC 2002 Qualifiers:
Portugal at home (drew 1-1)
Holland at home (WON 1-0) on 1st Sept 2001

So, we have to go back five full years to see the last time we actually beat any of the top nations in our qualifying groups at home. So in eight HOME games against the strongers nations in our qualifying groups, we have won 1; drew 5 and lost 2. Also, apart from the 0-0 draw with Switzerland in Kerr's last match, we actually took the lead in the other four matches that we ended up drawing. Keane gave us the lead against Portugal in the 2002 qualifers; Duffy gave us the lead against Russia in the 2004 qualifers, we led 2-0 against Israel in the last campaign; and last night Kevin Kilbane gave us the lead against the Czechs.

Therefore, I think it is too much to expect us to pick up enough points to catch either the Germans or the Czechs. Just where will these points come from?

**razor** · 12/10/2006, 11:21 AM

Not a hope.

**blobbyblob** · 12/10/2006, 11:22 AM

Id be looking at between 18-20 points as a successful campaign at this stage. What happens after that I dunno

I reckon between 21-24 should get a play off