Revenue After Shels Again

[passerrby]

corks debt was historical shels is hysterical

[Stato]

WAR, a charge doesn't give an automatic right to evict, that can only happen if the tennant is in breach of the terms of the agreement. It also doesn't give an automatic right to take full owenership of the asset.

It's highly likely that the loans so far advanced have only to be repaid on a sale of the lease. It's is also highly likely that there is a time limit, hence Shels' desire to move to Dalymount or Morton (given Tallaght's current problems and the fact that a decision won't come from the High Court until just before Christmas implies that Shels deadline is before then).

€300K isn't much if you've still potentially got another €7m coming to you.

Bad Mongo, developers have gotten around these problems in the past. Dublin City Council like the idea of private apartment blocks beside public areas as it is what I think they refer to as "passive security", reducing the risk of problems in those areas.

I'm not supportive of what their trying to do, I believe it will ultimately end in failure, but there is quite a bit more time to run on this one than most people on this forum think.

[Dr.Nightdub]

Baffled and all as I am by the appeal of baseball (basically rounders played in builders' hard hats), they do have one rule that we could do worse than adopt - three strikes and you're out.

[bohs til i die]

WAR, a charge doesn't give an automatic right to evict, that can only happen if the tennant is in breach of the terms of the agreement. It also doesn't give an automatic right to take full owenership of the asset.

It's highly likely that the loans so far advanced have only to be repaid on a sale of the lease. It's is also highly likely that there is a time limit, hence Shels' desire to move to Dalymount or Morton (given Tallaght's current problems and the fact that a decision won't come from the High Court until just before Christmas implies that Shels deadline is before then).

€300K isn't much if you've still potentially got another €7m coming to you.

Bad Mongo, developers have gotten around these problems in the past. Dublin City Council like the idea of private apartment blocks beside public areas as it is what I think they refer to as "passive security", reducing the risk of problems in those areas.

I'm not supportive of what their trying to do, I believe it will ultimately end in failure, but there is quite a bit more time to run on this one than most people on this forum think.

Stato

Rumour I know, but it is widely believed that Ossie Kilkenny has forwarded Shelbourne FC a considerable sum over the last few years. Remember when Shels played Deportivo, Finbarr Flood was in the papers saying the club's debts would be down to a more manageable figure, I think he said €700k.

Thats 2 years ago. In the mean time Shelbourne have established one of the most expensive squads ever assembled and income has obviously fallen away.

Shels may still have a considerable enough sum to come when the time comes to leave Tolka but the lease is only worth about €10-€12 million. Subtract €2-€3 million and you are left with the figure which was widely believed to be what they needed to get half of Dalymount.

Bottom line is the money required to get set up elsewhere after debts are paid, and I reckon they have fairly sizeable debts [i know Bohs have debts before anyone throws that into the equation]. When they are paid off they will be left with enough to keep them going for a few years and if they dont hit the jackpot in that time then they are rightly fukked

[Longfordian]

Brian McEniff the hotelier/developer was spotted at their game v. Sunderland.Being treated very respectfully by the Shels hierarchy apparently. Didn't know he was a Shels fan..

[Mr A]

Didn't know he was even an association football fan at all! he does own a hotel quite close to Tolka though.

[Stato]

Bottom line is the money required to get set up elsewhere after debts are paid, and I reckon they have fairly sizeable debts [i know Bohs have debts before anyone throws that into the equation]. When they are paid off they will be left with enough to keep them going for a few years and if they dont hit the jackpot in that time then they are rightly fukked

It's highly unlikely that Shels have sizeable debts. Firstly, banks don't want to touch eircom League clubs and certainly not to lend money to so their debt to financial institutions cannot be significant. Revenue are now employing a get tough policy and so their debt to them is probably six to eight months PAYE/PRSI at a maximum. Given that other costs of running a football club (light, heat, rates, telephones etc) are probably no more than €250K a year and that a lot of the suppliers of these services will use a get tough policy too (especially given the fact that it's public knowledge that Shels have cashflow difficulties), their overall creditors cannot be that high.

The only significant debts Shels could have would be to current and/or previous board members and shareholders. Most of them will have written that amount off as they wrote the cheque.

The other assumption you make is that they'll have to pay out a large amount to get a new stadium. That's not the case if they're going to be renting.

[Dodge]

All those little creditors add up (as was the case with Rovers). If they owe a printer €20K and a kit supplier €15K, it'll hurt. I take your point totally though

[CharlesThompson]

I don't think it's as highly unlikely that they have sizeable debts that you think Stato. The banks have been throwing money at people for the last 6-7 years. With the great press that Shels got over their European campaign and winning the leagues they have done recently, add in the fact that they have sold their lease on Tolka Park - what was to stop Oily going down to the AIB in Drumcondra looking for a short term loan here and a short term loan there "because of a little cashflow problem we have at the moment" - and that it will be paid back as soon as the Uefa money comes in.

It's easily done and the way Oily has been managing that clubs business for the last ten years or so who's to say that this scenario is an impossibility or even an improbability? I know it's all conjecture, but if anybody seriously thinks that with the crowds that Shels pull in and a commercial revenue stream of €300k per annum at best, that they have been able to pay a wage bill in excess of €30k per week based on these figures plus the paltry sum clubs get for TV and prize money then they are sadly deluded. The money has to have come from somewhere, unfortunatly for Oily not enough of it and it's coming back to nite him on the bum!

[Stato]

The banks have been throwing money at people to buy assets i.e. property. They've been doing it once you can show the ability to make the repayments with a consistent annual income. If Shels were borrowing, it wasn't to buy an asset and it wasn't with accounts showing regular annual profits.

Banks haven't been throwing money at businesses to fund their daily expenses. If they did extend facilities on the basis of something like the UEFA money they would have withdrawn the facility once that money came in. The type of scenario that the late Charlie Haughey got away with happened in the 1980s, not in this decade. It's because of what happened in the 1980s that the banks centrallised all major lending decisions (over €50K for most banks) rather than allow the local manager make the decision.

True, the amounts Shels will have earned in the past will not have been close to what they've spent but then if they hadn't kept all their accounting records in cardboard boxes on the lowest floor in the ground they wouldn't have been destroyed by that flood and we might have some real idea of the figures.

The future might be a little different though. Consider that the league champions are now picking up €225,000 prize money. For each round they participate in Champions League qualifiers they get another €100,000 (if they don't make the group stages), and if they get to round 3 and get beaten they get €70,000 for playing one round in the UEFA Cup. That's what happened Shels a couple of years ago, if they do it next year that's a total of €595,000 income, not to mention the gate receipts. Starts to become a different scenario then.

Again, I'll repeat, it's a win or die gamble though.

[bohs til i die]

It's highly unlikely that Shels have sizeable debts. Firstly, banks don't want to touch eircom League clubs and certainly not to lend money to so their debt to financial institutions cannot be significant. Revenue are now employing a get tough policy and so their debt to them is probably six to eight months PAYE/PRSI at a maximum. Given that other costs of running a football club (light, heat, rates, telephones etc) are probably no more than €250K a year and that a lot of the suppliers of these services will use a get tough policy too (especially given the fact that it's public knowledge that Shels have cashflow difficulties), their overall creditors cannot be that high.

The only significant debts Shels could have would be to current and/or previous board members and shareholders. Most of them will have written that amount off as they wrote the cheque.

The other assumption you make is that they'll have to pay out a large amount to get a new stadium. That's not the case if they're going to be renting.

Stato

I believe they have significant debts. They have failed to produce a programme on a number of occasions this season including two home games they had against Bohs.

I get the Bohs accounts every year as a member. I see the costs in running a football club. If Shels vacate Tolka and rent say Dalymount or Richmond, they will still have to fund a training setup etc. I dont believe the money they will get will significantly increase the chances of them landing the European Jackpot in the few years they will have the moneyto give it a go.

As for the costs of running a football club, well there is home match expenses, away match travel and food, training facilities, insurance to name but a few. Shels will also need an office of some description to run the club from. They will also lose some income from bars/kiddy disco's etc. Commercial income may drop off significantly as well.

There is still some substantial costs involved. Bohs spend about €500k a year on top of the first team squad so how long will it take Shels to go through a few million with no sustainable income streams?


You seem to think/believe that Shels will get the few million[5/7.5/10 or whatever] and it will be used to land group stage of the champions league.

The way I see it, if Shels end up renting from another organisation, they lose income streams and the windfall will be making up an even bigger annual deficit unless they curb the spending.

[pete]

This is all speculation here as no one knows what the situation is at Shels. I know most City fans were a bit concerned with our tax bill when first came out but then actually happy had come out into the public domain as at least we knew that should be the limit of the tax bill. The Revenue are or have invested every club in the league.

I think to have a go at the CL group stages Shels would need to invest a lot more on a yearly basis which would not seem to be possible now.

[bad mongo]

[QUOTE=pete;515924]This is all speculation here as no one knows what the situation is at Shels. I know most City fans were a bit concerned with our tax bill when first came out but then actually happy had come out into the public domain as at least we knew that should be the limit of the tax bill. The Revenue are or have invested every club in the league.

Bohs' members are privy to a lot of Shels financial constraints due to the offer put on the table for the Dalyer groundshare. That combined with some educated guesswork and media leaks would suggest Shels will exit Tolka with anything between 3-8M spondools, depending on debts and asset strippers. I would believe it's the lower figure, or maybe even less.

Stato: I assume we share a similiar professional background in built environment matters judging by your educated responses on this thread.
Shels cash input on the Dalyer groundshare deal was predicated on the density of residential development at the rezoned Tolka. i.e more cash available if higher density development was getting the go ahead at Tolka.

Reading between the lines of the City manager's report Tolka will be redeveloped at medium density, thus reducing the value of Shels' asset. Tolka park is subject to a draft local Area Plan, which as you may know will have considerable policy clout when it comes to planning decisions made by the likes of An Bord Pleanala, and would also be a material consideration at local authority level. The whole LAP area also covers land belonging to Stella Maris FC and a hospital situauted across the road will be subject to a comprehensive urban design framework. This will be an indicative template of what developers can expect to get away with building in the area. The city manager's report states that the higher density of residential development is prefered to take place on the other site mentioned along Richmond Road. Add to that the potential objectors from the granny flats and the popensity for flooding at Tolka and you arrive at the conclusions stated...

[WeAreRovers]

Stato - I should have explained myself better re. Ossie Kilkenny's charge on Tolka. Kilkenny and co. have been bankrolling Shels since March 2003. That's a lorra lorra cash. And if Shels can't make any demanded repayments then the charge comes into effect.

It's a simple case of smart developers/speculators vs. dim football administrators. A tale as old as the game itself.

Bad Mongo - You who I assume you to be?

KOH

[bad mongo]

Stato - I should have explained myself better re. Ossie Kilkenny's charge on Tolka. Kilkenny and co. have been bankrolling Shels since March 2003. That's a lorra lorra cash. And if Shels can't make any demanded repayments then the charge comes into effect.

It's a simple case of smart developers/speculators vs. dim football administrators. A tale as old as the game itself.

Bad Mongo - You who I assume you to be?

KOH

some rovers dufus beat me to my preferred handle on this MB

[WeAreRovers]

some rovers dufus beat me to my preferred handle on this MB

In fairness, that's his real name.

KOH

[pineapple stu]

It's highly unlikely that Shels have sizeable debts. Firstly, banks don't want to touch eircom League clubs and certainly not to lend money to so their debt to financial institutions cannot be significant.

Surely if Shels have an asset worth, let's say, E10m (i.e. Tolka), then the bank will lend them a good chunk of that on the basis that the worst case scenario is Shels go broke, their asset is sold and the bank recoup their loan from the E10m. Shels being in business isn't going to affect the value of the ground. So Shels' debts could certainly be up to 50%, 60%, maybe 70% of the value of their lease, depending. E5m to E7m. (That's a possible maximum debt, not a stab at their actual debt obviously). Though I don't know how much of the value of a lease a bank will mortgage for you.

[Poor Student]

Has any paper reported on this yesterday or today? I only had a glance at yesterday's Herald and I didn't see anything.

[passerrby]

yes i read in this mornings paper that shels were folding and all the players were free agents and that tolka park was been turned into a new superhighway to dalymount and that ollie had started a life sentence in grange gorman :**** it was only a dream ,why did you wake me

[anto eile]

Not true, their lease could potentially be worth €10m to €12m (bear in mind that any developer is going to try to get as many units on it as possible and each extra unit is extra money for Shels). Even if they've eaten into about €2.5m over the last couple of years they've still a large chunk to eat into before it's all gone (bear in mind too that Ollie is looking for a cheap option on a ground, think it was €5m for 49% of Dalymount, also looked at renting Tallaght apparently).

You've also got to bear in mind that the lowest tv money payment to any club in the Champions League in 2004 was €2m, not to mention the extra gate receipts that would be generated. That's a big carrot to aim for.

Again, I'm not suggesting it's the right thing to do, it's the Russian Roulette gamble. There's no room for failure but they have a few years left to try to achieve it.

youre realy joining this deabte months too late
weve been thru the whole housing on tolka thing. the amount of housing isnt going to be huge. shels chunk of their lease is worth roughly E7M according to the sunday business post a few months ago.thats areliable source.

the champions league dream is what shels have already tried, and failed. the CL dream is over simplistic cloud cuckoo land stuff.
get realistic.theres n omagic solution to clubs problems. it will take years of hard work building clubs up in their local community with investment in schoolboys, coaching and developement facilities. yes its damn long hard work but its the only relaistic choice. waffling on about throwing money at a champions leage pipedream is what has gotten shels into the state their in.

an unremarkable man learns form his own mistakes
a clever man learns from the mistakes of others
now..who wants to learn from shels mistakes?? and who wants to learn from their own?