Iraq, the future?

[rebs23]

I know there are other threads on the Iraq and the Middle East but to start a seperate discussion, where do we go from here? The other arguments seem to be well discussed at this stage ie. the rights and wrongs of invading Iraq, etc.
I think everyone agrees at this stage it's a mess, but what should the USA do now, pull out and leave the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds at it?

I am just completely at sea on this issue at this stage as we seem to heading more and more into a complete mess not just in Iraq but also in the Middle East generally with several issues colliding and feeding off each other eg. Irans Nuclear Power, Islamic Fundamentalism, Iraq, etc, etc.

[dcfcsteve]

Iraq was an artificial country when it was established in the first place, so has no sacred right or need to continue existing as it is currently constituted. The big problem, however, is that if Iraq fragmented the Shi'ite part would probably look to join Iran - and the West would never let that happen.

I would like to see more/complete autonomy for the Kurds. I don't give a feck what impact it would have on Turkey and Syria - the Kurds have been pished around by the West and their neighbours for long enough now. It won't happen though...

Regardless - I have a rather harsh view of these things. Countries both have a right and a need to sort their own situation out. External meddling only delays the inevitable and prevents a longer-term workable solution from being determined. Countries like Ireland, America, England, Spain and Yugoslavia needed Civil Wars to sort out fundamental issues regarding the direction in which they were going. Whilst i'd hate to see any further life lost, civil war's can often be important events in sorting out incredibly complex and volatile situations. An unpopular view I'm sure, but a valid one none-the-less. Pretending massive fundamnetal differences don't exist, and trying to suppress any violent symptoms they create, does not solve the situation at all.

[pete]

Who knows what will happen in Iraq. I've never been there so don't know much about. I agree though that sometimes a decisive (if thats possible) Civil War can decide a lot in short space of time.

[hamish]

Interesting article from the conservative Wall Street Journal.


Full article
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editor...l?id=110008178

Extract
Contrary to what so many in the Bush administration hoped, Iraq's salvation still rides with the two forces that few had foreseen: the religious Shiites, who recognize Ayatollah Sistani as moral guide, not the secularists in whom U.S. officials placed such store; and the U.S. military, which remains the only effective counterinsurgency force capable of diminishing sectarian strife and staunching Sunni-led violence. Together, they can corner the militants in their midst; if either falters, Iraq will probably descend into hell.

Extract
If Baghdad remains a killing zone, where Iraq's leaders can safely gather only under U.S. protection, then the prognosis for the Iraqi national identity, which has always had Baghdad at its center, is poor. Lasting political compromises will probably be impossible if the increasingly vicious sectarian strife in Baghdad and its environs intensifies. Within a year, at most two, Iraq could become Algeria.

Extract
It is irrelevant whether small businesses, imports, and school and hospital construction are doing better if Iraq's political and intellectual classes (not to mention foreigners who are trying to help them) cannot walk out of their homes unguarded.

Footnote to extract 3 - no mention of academics, businesspeople etc who have been assinated or who have left Iraq.