QuoteOriginally Posted by pineapple stu
The joy of stats !
Two quick questions before some analysis. Are we missing a column for 2004 above ? Also - is the Overall change figure of 12.10% the change from 2004 to 2006, or 2005 to 2006.
Crowds are down but they're up !
The joy of stats is that you can use them to say anything. For example, the above could be interpreted to say that attendances are actually broadly up in the league - as the majority of clubs (55%) have actually had an increase in average attendances over time. When you add in the fact that one of the teams that has had a decline is now no longer in existence (Dublin City) then 57+% of existing teams saw their crowds increase across the period reflected above.
No real surprises in there !
If you look at the stats - teams that had a better year this year than last have pretty much all all seen attedances rise. Those who've had a worse year (and/or been in a lower league) have seen them fall. The only exception to this is Shels - who, as we all know have never had a particularly large or loyal fan base anyway.
A Dublin-lead decline ?
You could argue that the main story from the above stats is the decline in attendances of the Dublin clubs over time. Shels, Bohs, Pats Shamrock Rovers and Dublin City all had significant drops in attendance, meaning only one club in the capital (UCD) saw an increase. So outside of Dublin, the vast majority (69%) of clubs saw attendances increase. This should be no great surprise really, for a number of reasons. Firstly - Dublin clubs are much more reliant upon each other for crowds than teams outside the City, due to the greater than average number of away fans they provide to each other. So if a couple of Dublin teams are struggling league-wise (e.g. Bohs and Pats) this will obviously impact their own crowds, and in-turn impact the other Dublin teams greater than it will non-Dublin teams. For the last 2 seasons in a row, only one Dublin club has finished in a Top 5 league position. For perspective - the last time only a single Dublin club finished in the Top 5 was in 1979/80, and you have to go back 30 years to 1975-77 for the last time only one Dublin clubn finished in the Top 5 for 2 seasons in a row. That's back to the era of Cork Hibernians, Galway Rovers, Thurles Town and Limerick United. Also - no Dublin team has won the FAI cup for the last 5 years - whereas in the 3 years from 1975-77 at least the Cup was claimed by a Dublin team twice. For a league that has traditionally been substantially dominated by teams from the capital, we appear to be in a uniquely difficult period for our capital's clubs. Even with Bohs' money, does anyone genuinely expect more than 1 Dublin club to finish in the Top 5 next season, for example ?
Secondly - the fact that none of the Dublin teams really have any strong local roots doubtless doesn't help them maintain crowds through the lean times (although to be fair it hasn't helped Cork much in the stats either).
Thirdly - would it be fair to argue that Summer football could impact Dublin teams greater than those outside of the capital, given the greater income and tranisent nature of the capitals' population ? Do more Dubs take more holidays in the Summer than us mere mortals down the country ? A moot but interesting point.
Conclusion
From our stats, attendances across the league appear to have fallen about 10% in the last year, and about 12% across the last 2 seasons. But they've fallen year-on-year where you'd expect them to have fallen, and risen year-on-year where you'd expect them to rise as well. Also - the overall decline appears to have been particualy marked amongst clubs from the capital, where despite hosting the league winners the on-field fortunes of Dublin teams have generally been at their lowest ebb for 30 years.
Margin of Error
Finally - the old margin of error whorry chestnut. The above stats are just damn good guesses, usually conservative ones, and not fact. They are purely indicative, and can't really be relied upon to any great degree for accuracy. It is highly likely that the margin for error in them would completely distort the picture, but it would be fair to say that the overall picture would probably be of a slight decline regardless of the margin.
Pineapple - great job on pulling these stats together for another year. I await the inevitable barrage of statistical cross-examination from all and sundry...
). You can't offset Sligo's increase of 0.6% against Cork's drop of 19%, nor Monaghan's increase of 11% against Bohs' 26%. Obviously, in the former case, the 19% decrease far outweighs the 0.6% increase, even before you consider that the 19% decrease was on a much higher starting point than the 0.6% increase. Similarly, Monaghan's 11% increase was only about 15 people in real terms, whereas Bohs' decrease was about 500. So it's utterly pointless to say that half the teams showed increases and conclude that crowds are up. That's why we have the average movement, which shows a 10% decrease this year.
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