WAR - can you or someone else scan or type-in Delaney's comments ?Originally Posted by WeAreRovers
Different facts, I would imagine. There was no Welsh league before 1992, so any Welsh team played in England. I think the Welsh league tried to make their clubs join the league, but some refused? Newport presumably gained an exemption as they were in the English league by necessity already and were under no compunction to move back. Even now some want to leave for England (eg Rhyl). That argument doesn't hold for NI clubs joining the eircom League or vice versa.
Irish Daily Mirror
Headline - Delaney won't stand in the way of All-Ireland League...in fact he likes the idea.
"As far as I'm concerned I will give the members what they want. Nobody owns the FAI. So I will support the wishes of the clubs. But like everything in life you have to do things gradually. It's a crawl, walk, run process.
Two years ago people would have said a cross-border tournament was a pie-in-the-sky idea. No one would have thought that Derry could go to Windsor Park for a competitive game. But it has happened. The Setanta Cup is established now. It's a great tournament.
I was there on Monday night in Windsor and it was a marvelous atmospheric occassion. Where it goes from here? Only time will tell. My personal view is that I am here to support the clubs. and if they want to go and pursue an All-Ireland league then we wil look at that.
Alternatively if they want to extend the Setanta Cup then we will look at that option. But it must be what clubs on both sides of the border want and what both associations want."
And there's loads more like that, along the lines of Genesis recommending an all-island league, improving infrastructure etc. It's the usual politicking from Delaney but it's easy to read between the lines.
Basically the FAI are up for it, the big clubs North and South are up for it and momentum is a powerful thing.
KOH
No One Likes Us, We Don't Care
Sorry Pineapple, but you're completely and utterly wrong again.
There were Welsh leagues prior to 1992 for teams to play in - but no national one. The Welsh FA set one up to protect their international team's position, and they sought to force ALL the Welsh clubs playing in England to join their new league. Some did (e.g. Bangor and Rhyl) but a hard-core refused (namely Newport, Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham and Merthyr). Newport did NOT get any sort of exemption from the Welsh FA on this just because they were already playing in England (as were all the others, btw).
To punish them for refusing to join their new league, the Welsh FA therefore said that as it was the body in charge of football in Wales, Welsh-based clubs who refused to join the Welsh Pyramid system could no longer play within the borders of the nation of Wales. The clubs refused - and as a result for 2 years they were forced to play their home games in various grounds in England instead (e.g. Kidderminster, Chester).
Eventually the clubs - lead by Newport - took advantage of the Restraint of Trade regulations in the Massstricht Treaty (that came into force at the end of 1992) to take the Welsh FA to court. They lost their initial case, but it eventually made its way to the English High Court (which also covers Wales) in 1994 where, under the statutes of Competition and Restraint of Trade contained within EU law, Lord Blackburn judged that the Welsh FA was actign illegally in seeking to prevent any team within its juridiction from 'plying their trade' in any other EU footballing jurisdiction. As a result, the clubs were able to return to playing English-pyramid games in their home grounds in Wales.
This was a test case under European law, and a clear judgement was made. It therefore affects ANY club in ANY EU footballing jurisdiction - including Irish clubs.
Everything I am stating here was explained to me directly in some detail by a man who was Chief Executive of the Welsh FA for 13 years, and a member of UEFA's governing committee (Alun Evans). I should suspect he knows his stuff......
Last edited by dcfcsteve; 24/02/2006 at 4:10 PM.
The writing is on the wall really.
Incidentally - there is a major row brewing over the British government's strong desire to enter a 'Great Britain' football team into the 2012 World Cup. The Scots and Welsh rightly fear that it will set a precedent against the indefensible situation of the UK being the only political institution in the world to have multiple international football teams. There are a lot of voices in FIFA/world football who want to see this historical anachronism end, and any combined Olympics team will give them a hell of a precedent to push with in achieving this aim.
It's always interesting how small, seemingly insignificant things now can have a big impact upon much more in the future. Roll on 2012....
Last edited by dcfcsteve; 24/02/2006 at 4:11 PM.
There's an enormous difference between being "up for it" and it happening.
To put it starkly the FAI have been told by UEFA that an All Ireland League cannot happen without political unity. If they sanctioned it tomorrow there is nothing to stop the old firm playing in the premiership or other clubs playing in other leagues.
There is also the issue that Jeffrey was alluding to the other night that the whole island would only have 4 European spots. This is a side issue but relevant nonetheless.
In fairness to Delaney he cant come out and say no to an AIL publicly. Privately he knows the truth.
Dcfcsteve check your PM. The welsh case is entirely different.
KOH
Not supported by legal fact - as explained in some detail above, and as explained to me by a former member of both UEFA and FIFA Management Committees. Who should know his stuff better than you or I really.........
This issue is a complete and utter red herring, that is brought up every time with no real thought attributed to it.
Yes - having a single league would see the ISLAND OF IRELAND losing 4 Euro slots. However - no single team in either the EL or IL would lose any Euro slots. Here's why. Currently Linfield can play for one of only 4 European slots available to them in the IrishLeague. If they joined the EL, they'd still be playing for one of only 4 Euro slots available. If there was an all-island league each team would still be eligible for only one of only 4 Euro slots. There would therefore be NO CHANGE to their current circumstances.
To put it in layman's terms - the government may decide to give each household a 10% salary tax break. If you live on your own your household would therefore get that 10% tax break on your salary, as would your girlfriend if she lived on her own. If you then moved into your girlfriend's household and knocked your old place down, you would STILL only get the 10% tax break - not a 20% one ! And neither you nor she would have lost out on ANYTHING.
Conversely - you could argue strongly that an all-island league would lead to improved Euro performances/co-efficients - and thereby increase the total number of Euro slots available to each and every team within it. Hey presto - all-island league actually leads to INCREASE in available Euro slots.
Can you send again - my inbox was full. Or better still - just post it here as part of the debate.
Last edited by dcfcsteve; 24/02/2006 at 4:28 PM.
Steve, we've had this argument before, and your continuing bad maths makes me worry about the rest of your argument.
Currently, there are 12 teams in the eircom League Premier Division, so each had (on average, and assuming a First Division team doesn't get into Europe) a 4 in 12 chance of getting into Europe - 0.333.
There are 18 teams in the IL Premier, so a 4 in 18 chance - 0.222.
A unified Irish league would have those 30 teams fighting over 4 places, so a 4 in 30 chance - 0.133.
There is quite clearly a change in the chances of getting into Europe.
There would be no change, however, given that you are in the Premier Division. Which is a big assumption.
Don't even try and argue this one. Your maths are quite simply wrong, and no rhetoric can change the fact. Let's have a million-team Premier with four Euro slots - do you still think the odds of getting into Europe are the same? It's a major issue (though arguably not the way clubs should be looking, but anyway), end of story.
Steve clear your inbox.
Thanks
I will argue it Pineapple because your arguement falls down on 3 key grounds :
1) Size of Premiership
- You are assuming that any All-island Premier Division would be a straight combination of all the current Premier teams north and south (there are only 16 teams in the ILP btw, not 18). This is highly unlikely to happen.
- I accept that any of the 28 current 'premier teams north and south who didn't make it into an AIL Premiership, would be denied access to a Euro slot they would otherwise have technically been able to compete for. But so fcuk. Reality suggests that this would make little or no difference, as follows.
2) Qualification chances in sport cannot be explained simply by the law of mathematical averages.
- Do Brazil and Trinidad both GENUINELY have the same chance of winning the World Cup this year ? The mathematical laws of averages says they do ! Meanwhile, sporting reality asserts strongly that Trinidad have no chance.
- Likewise, Ards are an Irish League Premier Division team.
- They haven't won any trophy that would see them qualify for Europe in 32 years.
- They did blag an Inter-toto slot in 1997 - but nothing in the 23 years in-between and nothing since.
- Meanwhile, Linfield have been an Irish League rep in Europe practically EVERY SINGLE YEAR for as far back as anyone can remember.
- The mathematical law of averages may therefore claim that both Ards and Linfield have an equal chance of qualifying for Europe - but sporting fact highlights that this would clearly be an absurd expectation to make.
- The law of averages is completely ineffectual in highlighting the genuine chances of success of sporting teams. That is why bookies offer odds - not averages.
- Therefore : so feck if the likes of Ards or Larne didn't make any AIL Premier Division. They're unlikely to qualify for the Euro slots available to top-finishing teams anyway - regardless of what league they're in.
3) Your arguement is more one against an increase in the size of ANY Premier Division - and not one exclusively against an AIL.
- Ignoring for a moment the fact that the law of averages is meaningless when determining chances of success for sporting teams : when the EL Premier Division recently increased to 12 teams, the simple mathematical chances of Euro qualification also changed for the EL teams. Big deal.
- Likewise : when the IL has gone through its numerous changes re the size of their top division, the basic mathematical 'averages' regarding Euro qualification slots have likewise fluxed for their teams.
- If you're syaing that an all-Ireland league damages teams likelihood to qualify for Europe on the basis of each team facing more competitors, then you should also be arguing for the smallest possible Premier Divisions as well. Or at the very least for no increases whatsoever. Ever.
- Your argument is therefore not one against an All-island league, but one against any growth in the size of top divisions - regardless of where the teams in those divisions originate from.
Last edited by dcfcsteve; 24/02/2006 at 5:25 PM.
Steve, 8>4. It's quite simple.
Let's look at it this way. NI teams - Linfield, Glentoran, Portadown and Dungannon are in Europe next year. Irish teams Cork, Derry, Drogheda and Shels are in. Under a unified league, four of those would miss out.
My point about averages was meant to take the league as a whole, not to consider any one team in particular. If you average the odds of all the clubs in the league qualifying for Europe, you get the average (there's that word again), which is what I compared. If you reduce the league's average, it can clearly be seen that every club in that group's average reduces. Take the two examples you quoted. Ards' actual chances of getting to Europe based on the past 30 years is 1 in 30. Now it'd be nil. That's a reduction. But you eloquently dismiss this by saying "fcuk it", and ironically by saying that they were "unlikely" to qualify before - odds which by definition are higher than none, which would now be their odds. You also quote Linfield getting into Europe every year. Do you think that'd happen in a unified league? Of course not. So their average would reduce. Shels have qualified for Europe the past 12 years or so - would that happen in a unified league? Probably not. So their average would reduce.
Your post is an absolute triumph of loquacious waffling over hard maths.
Last edited by pineapple stu; 24/02/2006 at 5:51 PM.
I don't think anyone is doubting UEFA or FIFA would resist a cross-border League as it is a fundamental change to their neat, functional and overwhelmingly national FA view of organised football.
However, that doesn't automatically imply they are right and their word is gospel. The Bosman ruling similarly shook up football and was widely resisted as it protected the established hegemony, but as that ruling proved, the Courts have very little time for historical reasoning and rely on assessing the information before them in against the provisions of the compendium of European Statutes.
So its not going to happen next year or the year after, but its not impossible, whatever UEFA may say.
and your post is akin to re-arranging deckchairs on the Titantic.
Given the financial possibilities of an All-Ireland League, I suspect the big clubs would be more than willing to take their chance of a slightly reduced chance of qualifying for Europe for the growth possibilites on offer.
And as has been mentioned before, it only takes a few clubs to make it happen, the FAI and IFA could be left swinging in the wind if they don't join in.
I can understand your point of view however. For all bar the 6 (plus or minus) largest clubs (and I don't mean most successful) North and South, playing in a feeder League would not be an attractive proposition in the long-term.
I agree entirely. I'm just trying to correct Steve's maths. As a UCD fan, I'd welcome it too (though with the proviso of an expanded Premier). We'd still have the Fair Play award anyway!
If the IFA and the FAI don't join in, there's no European slots at all. The clubs have much less sway than you make out.
Pineapple,
I totally understand what you're saying. However - I'm saying that to look at the situation solely through basic mathematical eyes is at best irrelevant, and at worst misleading.
If there was an all-island league tomorrow, then yes - the 8 Euro slots that the island of Ireland currently has would be reduced to 4. But as no SINGLE club is able to compete for those 8 slots, then that numerical change is frankly meaningless to each individual club.
Beyond that, every single thing you've been saying is an arguement against increasing the number or quality of teams in the top division. They are NOT arguements exclusively against an all-island League. You can't say that an all-island league will impact European qualification, using basic maths to argue it, but then not say the same is true for every other significant change we've had in our league - the introduction of Cork and Longford in 1984, the large 1985 expansion, the introduction of a mid-season split in the table, the 16 team premier, the 14 team premier, the 10 team premier, the 12 team premier etc etc. You're being dishonest here by suggesting that your wonderful mathematical conundrums are exclusively negative when applied to an All-island League. Your arguments are arguments against change to the number or quality of teams in the top division - FULL STOP. It's misleading to therefore suggest that this is only relevant in the context of an all-island league.
If you're going to argue that an all-island league has a negative impact upon individual clubs chances of European qualification - then I also expect you to come out and say the same for ANY other change to our league. Anything else would be misleading or hypocritical.
Steve, your argument is that reducing the number of European places in the league won't actually make it any more difficult to get into Europe, and that it consequently isn't an issue. That's nonsense. Your household example is completely irrelevant. If you were to shoot four people out of 12 in one group, and 4 out of 18 in another group, and then offer them the chance of going into one big group and only 4 of that group being shot, you'd soon see your maths invalidated.
I am in favour of an All-Ireland league, as I have said numerous times here before. I have said I wouldn't mind seeing it in conjunction with an increase in the size of the Premier. But I don't use wrong maths to argue my point.
Surely there is precendent for the old clubs to just reapply to the IFA, Shelbourne, Bohemians, Derry City and the other clubs who i can't remember of the top of my head could all reapply to the IFA and leave the FAI. Cork City who only started in 1984 could apply under the grounds that it's boring in the FAI . With the precedants already in place that clubs from one side of the border can play in the other, and with the big teams gone, slowly the Eircom League would cease to be meaningful and an all ireland league would be created. Eventually even the first division clubs would be playing up north and we could marvel at the clash of Institute vs Kilkenny. We would alas be under the jurisdiction of an organisation as bigoted towards certain clubs as the FAI is, but sure no change there.
http://www.rte.ie/aertel/p221.htm
Just wondering what everyone thinks of this. I don't see the point in having a league between two seperate organisations. It would be the same as merging the Premiership and the SPL.
Your entire arguement is based on a presumption on the size of the Premier division in any All-island League - and on another presumption regarding how many teams would be in that league overall. It is highly unlikely that the reality will reflect your presumptions.
You also seem unwilling to step outside your fascination with mathematical averages and accept that the likes of Ards, Larne, Finn Harps, Dublin City etc have little chance of European qualification in the short-to-medium term - regardless of which side of the border they play on, or how big the league they play in is (unless it's so small that they'd struggle NOT to qualify). Hence - it is frankly academic for a lot of teams whether or not the island as a whole loses Euro slots, as they aren't in the running for any such slots north, south, or cross-border anyway.
Regardless - back to the main substance of the issue. There is a legal precedent that means the IFA and/or FAI would be powerless to stop an all-island league taking place even if they wanted to. All they could do would be to withhold Euro slots. But even if they did take that drastic measure, it wouldn't last long. In the incerdibly political world of international football, an association that has lost jurisdiction over either its biggest and best clubs, or indeed all of its clubs, would be a complete laughing stock. Hence - any breakaway would sooner or later be followed by a face-saving resolution with the Association(s) and a return of any with-held Euro slots.
Last edited by dcfcsteve; 24/02/2006 at 11:03 PM.
One thing on all of this is it wont be easy, it'll take a bit of time to work things out if all parties sit down to sort it out. All clubs will want the best possible deal for themselves, and so far not many have looked at the overall benefits for the league (if they merged) .... and there has been nothing near 'the greater good' considered by any club to date.
The thing about it, for all stakeholders is that there are alot of benefits to be had from the merger, alot of clubs seem themselves losing what benefits they have and dont really see any of the possibilities. There is alot of potential but its as if they assume that this will not be realised, straight away they think it'll fail, but on no clear basis, the reasoning isn't very sound (thats when the ever was any reasoning) in my opnion.
The SFAI are the governing body for grassroots football in Ireland, not the FAI. Its success or the lack of is all down to them.
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