Now that Pascal Donohue has packed his bags for Washington, the resultant by-election looks an absolute bearpit. Sinn Féin would have to start as clear favourites, being Mary Lou's home turf, the only major reservation being the lack of an obvious candidate (could Lynn Boylan be parachuted in from Strasbourg?). Fine Gael currently possess the Dublin Lord Mayor in Ray McAdam, but aside from FF, they don't have an obvious source of transfers, and three of the current four TDs are from the left. If there is to be a surprise, it could come from the Social Democrats, who have an inner city councillor in Daniel Ennis, and can expect to hoover up preferences from Labour, the Greens and some PBP votes. Malachy Steenson will pick up a big chunk of Hutch FPVs (assuming the Monk doesn't run this time), but leapfrogging everyone to election seems improbable, and the transfers of PBP's Eoghan O'Ceannabháin could prove pivotal to the final result.