General Election 2024

[seanfhear]

As the count goes on ~ ~ The results are getting more interesting.

Shockingly low turn-out ~ ~ A lot of people are becoming very dis-engaged from Irish politics ~ ~ This is not good and it is very hard to tell where that could end up.

[Neish]

A

Shockingly low turn-out ~ ~ A lot of people are becoming very dis-engaged from Irish politics ~ ~ This is not good and it is very hard to tell where that could end up.

True and it just plays into the hands of FF & FG

[D24Saint]

True and it just plays into the hands of FF & FG

I didn’t or wouldn’t vote for either but this election has been interesting if uninspiring. Imo it has shown the vast majority of the electorate are of a conservative mindset. A few protestors on various issues and a cohort of loudmouth online agitators don’t represent the public at large. It is what it is , in a democracy there are no right or wrong results in an election.

[pineapple stu]

I'm not sure who the viable alternatives to high carbon/high house prices/being the MNC bitches are to be honest. That has to be part of the problem.

I heard two people of around college age recently talking about how scary it was that everyone they knew had left and how "there's nothing here for us any more". Who do they vote for?

[dahamsta]

At least we're not as bad as America, we didn't actually elect an actual crook.

Apart from Lowry. Again.

While I'm genuinely saddened that Ireland continues to vote for FF in light of the appalling damage they continue to inflict upon Ireland, and the laziness and/or carelessness of people that didn't go out and vote, I'm at least glad to see that Ireland isn't tracking the rest of the cretinous electorates in voting big for the hard right. Those people deserve what they will inevitably get.

[Mr A]

Would worry FF and FG may go in with the likes of Independent Ireland and or Aontu - they'll push things in a regressive direction.

Weird campaign. Never had fewer canvassers- only one at my door and that's in Galway City. People just seem resigned to it staying the same.

[John83]

Would worry FF and FG may go in with the likes of Independent Ireland and or Aontu - they'll push things in a regressive direction.

I was curious whether that's realistic. Right now, there are 12 seats left to fill, and I don't know how any of those races are going, but FF+FG is currently 43+36 = 79 seats, 9 short of a majority. II+Aontu is only another 2+4 seats, three short, so that could be an option depending on how those final 12 seats fall but may require both of them. I guess Labour or the SDs are going to look like safer partners, if they don't take excessively *****ly negotiating positions. What do you even offer Aontu? A reunification poll? An abortion referendum? Can you offer either with a straight face? And how do you court Aontu while arguing that the shinners (the cuddlier, abortion-friendly version of Aontu) are still beyond the pale?

EDIT: Anyone curious about the asterisks, check out this recipe! https://tinyurl.com/4zw9wurf
EDIT 2: Kildare North seems like 3 of the remaining seats go 1 SF, 2 FF/G. So they're closing in on where they could maybe get away with independents. That'll strengthen their hands in coallition negotions.

[Eminence Grise]

I think the deliberations in FF-FG will be balancing the cheapest concessions with maximum fig leaf.

I tot 83-85 between them, so two to four needed for a wafer-thin majority, assuming the Ceann Comhairle role goes to an opposition TD – three to five otherwise. FG have so many newbies they can’t afford to put one of their senior deputies forward for it. Ideally, for stability, they’d want 92, 93 seats minimum – to cover for backbencher/the third party’s flakiness, death/resignations in office etc.

The cheapest route to that is Green (one ministry, two senators) and a scatter of independents from the FF-FG gene pool. Roderick O’G is, to all extents and purposes, an independent but he has ministerial experience that the coalition is going to lack and policy concession could be limited to a relatively minor department of state – transport, heritage. It would be a scenario not entirely unlike Mary Harney remaining in government after the winding up of the PDs. More likely, though, it would be all independents, and buying them is going to be just a cash cost at constituency level – any with a policy issue are likely to be frozen out unless it dovetails with the master PfG – with no concession on ministries or senate appointments. If an independent kicks up, they can be chucked overboard and replaced with another. On the down side, they’re the ones, not the local FF-FG, announcing the new factory, road, hospital wing etc etc.

But, if things go pear-shaped, who can FF-FG blame? Greens, this time, Labour in the past, PDs in the ancient history. That’s where Labour come into play: coalitionable, out of power for a while and missing it, and big enough for stability – but not so big they’d be anything but the fall guys. But the cost is higher: they’ll need concessions in the PfG, two ministries, two juniors (maybe settling on one of each with a super-junior for three posts) and probably two or three senators. Throw in a couple of Oireachtas committee chairs for good measure.

Soc Dems – I’d be surprised if they were in the mix. A bit more left than Labour than is palatable for the early risers who go out to work in FG, and maybe a hint of inexperience about them. If they hit 12 seats, they’ll want four ministers/juniors and three senators, and concessions in the PfG. It’s a high price with less certainty.

Aontu, II – here’s the devil, Taoiseach, he’s willing to make a good offer for your soul. That said, if you can stomach them for five years, there’s no better way to kill a small party. The fear in FF-FG, I think, would be that coalition would legitimise their discourse. Personally speaking, Michael Fitzmaurice as a super-junior would make me renounce my Rossie heritage!

PBPS – fnarrrf! From both sides.

The Seanad composition is only a minor consideration. With 11 Taoiseach's nominees, FF-FG only need to win 19 out of 49 seats (43 less the university panels) to control the house.

So, were I a betting man, I’d say one of these:

1 FF-FG-Independents – cheap and stable, outweighs the lack of fall guys for the government.
2 FF-FG-Labour – stable fall guys outweigh the cost of ministries, senate seats and policy concessions.

[passinginterest]

I think the gap between FF and FG is going to complicate the negotiations a bit. I make it 48 to 38 now. Gives them a good chance to form a Government with Independents maybe even the Independent Ireland cohort. But the balance of power has shifted dramatically to FF. They might have a case now for no rotation of the Taoiseach and could that be a deal breaker for FG and push FF to talk to SF? It's a very unlikely scenario, but it's more possible now than yesterday.

If they want stability they'll try and lure Labour back in as the third party, Labour are landing at 10 or 11 seats so combined it would be a very stable mid 90s. Would Labour risk getting wiped out again, when they're only starting to recover? They'd have to have some major red line, probably including control of housing and or social welfare Ministries.

I don't think it'll be completely straightforward now. If there was only 5 or 6 seats between FG and FF it's simple rotating Taoiseach and bring in a junior partner. Not so simple now with FF looking like being 10 seats ahead and SF looking like getting a seat more that FG. I think it'll be into January and maybe longer before it gets sorted.

[Mr A]

I was curious whether that's realistic. Right now, there are 12 seats left to fill, and I don't know how any of those races are going, but FF+FG is currently 43+36 = 79 seats, 9 short of a majority. II+Aontu is only another 2+4 seats, three short, so that could be an option depending on how those final 12 seats fall but may require both of them. I guess Labour or the SDs are going to look like safer partners, if they don't take excessively *****ly negotiating positions. What do you even offer Aontu? A reunification poll? An abortion referendum? Can you offer either with a straight face? And how do you court Aontu while arguing that the shinners (the cuddlier, abortion-friendly version of Aontu) are still beyond the pale?

EDIT: Anyone curious about the asterisks, check out this recipe! https://tinyurl.com/4zw9wurf
EDIT 2: Kildare North seems like 3 of the remaining seats go 1 SF, 2 FF/G. So they're closing in on where they could maybe get away with independents. That'll strengthen their hands in coallition negotions.

Fair comments on Aontu.. but there are a lot of FF were against abortion rights as well and FG has obvious conservative leanings also. So an outside chance at best.

Looks like FF 48, SF 39, FG 38.. 86 between FF and FG so not too many needed to get that majority.

Do II even know what they want except fewer brown people and faster climate change though.

[Eminence Grise]

I think the gap between FF and FG is going to complicate the negotiations a bit. I make it 48 to 38 now. Gives them a good chance to form a Government with Independents maybe even the Independent Ireland cohort....

If they want stability they'll try and lure Labour back in as the third party, Labour are landing at 10 or 11 seats so combined it would be a very stable mid 90s. Would Labour risk getting wiped out again, when they're only starting to recover?

Only Cavan Monaghan left to declare. Sarah O’Reilly, Aontú next to go, I imagine (distributing SF’s Pauline Tully’s votes now) and that’s going to leave 2 FF and 1 SF for the three seats. So that’d be FF 48, FG 38. 86 seats: I did not see that.

The gap of ten will add to the optics, but the genie is out of the rotating Taoiseach bottle and there is no other viable path to government than both parties sticking together again. Neither is going to cosy up to SF. Maybe there’d be a 3+2 or a 2+2+1 rotation (it might be a positive to only have two St Patrick’s Day visits to the White House…!)

I didn’t think Labour would end up with the same number of seats as the Soc Dems. It changes my calculations a little, and less favourably to FF-FG. Would Labour go into bed with them? Wouldn’t they just! There’d be a constituency that would damn them for not taking the opportunity, but it is a case of going all in just as they’re making a recovery. Still, it would be very tempting for FF-FG to court seven independents, and play one off against the other. There’s a strong Independent Alliance cohort back in play – Sean Canney, Kevin Boxer Moran and Finian McGrath protégé Barry Heneghan – and (vom! The fa*ts that linger in a lift) Mattie McGrath and Michael Lowry can always be counted on to do the right thing for [themselves ] the country. Healy-Raes count double. Now, the IA rump might have junior ministries as a price and I’m pretty sure FF-FG would want to dissuade another party emerging. Might be January alright…

Do II even know what they want except fewer brown people and faster climate change though.

Snouts in the trough. I sincerely doubt there is a passionately held belief in that quartet other than saying and doing whatever gives them the best chance of a seat. In another country they'd be raging communists, or monarchists. They're probably the most dangerous of all forms of populism because extremism is never nebulous but they legitimise a version of it that makes it look acceptable.

[John83]

Final results