Confirmed now that we're going to be in this with the draw taking place in December and a two legged playoff in March. We'll play a team that finishes second in one of the C groups. The possibilities are one of the following:
C1: Most likely Slovakia, but also still a reasonable chance that it could be Sweden.
C2: Almost certain to be Kosovo.
C3: Could still be any of the four teams in this group with Belarus and Bulgaria looking slightly more likely and Luxembourg and the north looking slightly less likely.
C4: Could be any of the Faroe Islands, Latvia or Armenia, with the Faroe Islands (!) currently rated most likely to be second placed team in this group.
We'll know the four teams we can draw by early next week. Some difference between drawing the Faroes and drawing Sweden.
It really is luck of the draw here.
C1 and we're really up against it.
C3 and C4 are we'd be favourites.
Kosovo, I'd just blindly assume we're 60/40 favourites in that game without actually knowing much about them.
Kosovo would fancy their chances against us I think - a speedy technical side that could cause us problems.
I wouldn't necessarily disagree with your 60/40 suggestion, but I'd rather not face a side that would fancy a go at us. Belarus or the Faroes is fine by me.
I think you are underestimating the Faroes a bit - they are always capable of pulling out a result (like beating Turkey in the last Nations League).Originally Posted by Eirambler
Imagine the reaction here if Stephen Kenny trotted out that line?
I like high energy football. A little bit rock and roll. Many finishes instead of waiting for the perfect one.
I remember the reaction when Stan trotted it out about San Marino.
(That Turkey game was a dead rubber; wouldn't read too much into it. It's about their only notable result since doing the double over Greece ten years ago)
Just by way of a comparison of the (Elo) rankings of the likely candidates, as there is a big difference as Eirambler says -
Sweden 1724
Slovakia 1713
Ireland 1613
Northern Ireland 1544
Kosovo 1535
Bulgaria 1468
Belarus 1467
Armenia 1392
Latvia 1296
Faroes 1280
So the gap between us and Sweden (which feels big) is larger than the gap between us and Kosovo, but a lot smaller than the gap to the bottom five in that list. Roughly speaking, a 100 point gap equates to a 67% score (say, two wins from three). A two-legged tie should obviously favour the better team.
In Group A, Sweden host Slovakia tomorrow and probably a draw will see them top the group as they host Azerbaijan in the last round.
Kosovo travel to Romania tonight three points behind them having lost 3-0 at home; Romania have Cyprus at home if they do slip up. Kosovo can't finish third so 99% on for second.
The North/Belarus/Bulgaria is a tricky one to call as there's been 11 goals in 7 games, of which 7 were scored by the North in Windsor. If the North win at home against Belarus tonight they'll be almost assured of winning the group. Bulgaria host Belarus on Monday and maybe are slight favourites to come second.
The Faroes are second in Group D with one game left, but it's their toughest game, away to North Macedonia. Lose that, and the winner of Latvia v Armenia (if there is one) takes second. Draw it, and Latvia can still come second by beating Armenia, but Armenia can't come second by beating Latvia.
Last edited by pineapple stu; 15/11/2024 at 3:01 PM.
Same now. If we can't beat the Faroes HH is automatically in trouble.Imagine the reaction here if Stephen Kenny trotted out that line?
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
Tonight's ROM v KOS match Abandoned, with the score 0-0. Dunno what the problem was, but there had been two (extended?) stoppages in injury time before it was called off.
"The north"? Macedonia? Cyprus? Korea?
Oh, you mean NI! Aye, we're looking handy enough to top the Group after tonight, but we never take anything for granted. While Bulgaria could still outdo us if they beat Belarus at home on Monday and we lose in Luxy. Otherwise, Bulgaria only need to avoid defeat to clinch second place.
Tbh, were I the south, sorry, ROI, I'd actually prefer to play Bulgaria over Belarus, since the latter are very well organised and hard-working, while not conceding many goals (one in four games before tonight).
Kosovo walked off because the Romanian ultras started chanting “Serbia”,Kosovo fans on twitter are calling it racism but I’m not sure how, seems a bit pathetic and soft from Kosovo tbh ……
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
Kosovo should get the boot from the competition if that is what they are going to claim made them leave the pitch
On that basis, we should be claiming that we were offended by some of the English chants in Dublin, and we want those points back
It's going to be intersting seeing the draw.
You'd have to say that you'd want anyone except the 2nd in C1.. so that means we're playing Sweden or Slovakia
But no matter who we play, it is imperative we stay in the B Path.. it's vital for better chances of play offs in Euro's down the line, and we need to be at the Euros in 2028, if they are being played in Dublin.
Being in the play offs also means we're destined for a 4 team WC group next Autumn.. but also means that HH will have two extra friendlies to prepare at the end of the season
The same thing happened when the sides met last year too - I think the chants were more on the line of "Serbia is Kosovo". There was plenty of general on-pitch needle throughout the match it seems.
The Kosovans were gesturing to the home crowd too - not sure which was first, and it does make a difference, but they're not fully blameless I think.
Still, wouldn't expect our players to walk off the pitch for "Ireland is in the UK" chants. Even 90 years ago when it would have had more of a sting. Feck it, the idea we'd have walked off the pitch in 93 as Billy Bingham was winding up sectarian chanting was never remotely considered.
You're going down a dangerous road if everyone can decide what's offensive to them and cause a game to be abandoned.
Oh dear, that is quite ungentlemanly from his lordship.
The good news tonight is that the highest rated potential opponent - Sweden - is now out of the picture. Latest position on potential opponents is:
C1: Confirmed as Slovakia
C2: A bit of a mess given the way the Romania v Kosovo game ended last night, but barring anything surprising such as point deductions it will be Kosovo.
C3: It now cannot be Luxembourg, will be one of Belarus, Bulgaria or the north.
C4: No games since the OP so still either Latvia, Armenia or the Faroes.
Sweden not being involved would make you a lot more optimistic overall, but Slovakia will still likely be the team we'd most want to avoid. Not that we couldn't give them a game either though.
You'd have to be pretty hard up to lie in the wings and wait almost forever to emerge onto an obscure thread on a mildly populated football website to be grievously offended by an erroneous comment about some event that happened 30 years ago? Then throw down your glove to Stu's feet and challenge him to a duel at dawn over the details of that night in time when the NI fans could sing about the Billy Boys being up to their knees in fenian blood with repeated gusto.
The final games in C4 are on at 2pm today, if anyone is looking for some football to watch before the Ireland game. North Macedonia are at home to the Faroes and Latvia are home to Armenia. The second placed team in this group would likely be the best possible draw outcome for us in the playoff.
Armenia and North Macedonia both leading with half an hour to go, Armenia would be the second placed team in this group if things stay the same.
Interesting to see our recent nemeses Luxembourg and Azerbaijan both in the League C relegation play-out, having not won a game between them all campaign.
Crikey, they were bad results...
We were told at the time they were teams on the up...
Another of our old foes, Armenia, scrape into the C4 playoff spot ahead of the Faroes.
Interesting to note after our third four-team Nations League campaign that the bottom team in our group has lost every game against sides other than us. Bulgaria got two draws against us and Armenia got a win.
We've had some tough draws in recent years, but we've been really steeped not to have been relegated so far.
Not so much we've been steeped.. we've been playing "at our level".. remember in the one 3 team NL competition, we finished 3rd in the group and would have been relegated but for the change to 4 teams
We're at the level of 25-30th in Europe
Because we've been shockingly poor for 10 yrs now
But as much as getting hockeyed today looks bad, we're only a couple of players shy of having a pretty decent team.. unfortunately.. those players are a decent holding midfielder, and a decent creative midfielder
But that discussion is a different thread
Back to play offs..
Its absolutely imperative we stay in the B path
England were an anomaly this time, they are not a B team, but of course we get to draw them
Next time, stay in B, and none of the big beasts are lurking
Runners up in B are teams like Georgia, Albania, Greece, Austria, Wales etc..
Even the top seeds next time are the likes of Scotland, Bosnia, Isreal..
HH is beginning to put shape and structure on the team.. in 2 yrs time, this is a young team but will hopefully have improved enough to be able to mix it with those teams and give us a decent chance of qualfying for 28
We have to be in that tournament
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