QuoteWhy is it 100% confirmed we’ll be in a 4 team group?Originally Posted by Eirambler
Please not Greece again, have had enough of them after 4 defeats in a row. They also look the strongest of those listed.
Why is it 100% confirmed we’ll be in a 4 team group?
Dale Johnson says so
FIFA apparently released their World Cup draw regulations last night/this morning which has confirmed it. Makes things a bit easier in terms of fitting in match dates as we (and the other Nations League playoff teams) can't play qualifiers in March. There will probably be teams with four qualifiers played (in the March and June windows) before we even start in September.
The only way it could have happened is if we got England or Switzerland who were both not playing playoffs. It would basically have been a 14.29% chance if the first seeds were locked in, 12.5% chance if all totally randomised and a 4.47% chance if seeds were prioritised sequentially. Would have been the better path for us. It's kinda needless to lock the second and third seeds into 4 group teams but UEFA.
We now have 6 groups available to us, which will include the 4 best teams in Europe (last time was Spain, Croatia, Italy, Netherlands) and 2 other top seeds, so very likely to get a top tier team, a France, Spain, Germany type team.
In the second seeds, we can get: Ukraine, Turkey, Hungary, Serbia, Greece, Slovakia (not massive difference between the two groups of seeds) - can't get (Sweden, Wales, Poland, Romania, Norway, Czech Rep.)
Couldn’t we do with a really top tier 1st seed though? A team that’ll win all 6 of its matches. I can’t see any other way of sneaking second, unless we’re the only ones to nick something off the top team.
It’s basically a NL group again where there’s no debate about whether 3rd is any good or not.
Yeah, that makes sense.
And I wouldn't completely rule out the Greeks if we got them again.. they're decent, but if we could win the play offs and get a decent camp together, we might be a bit more organised come September
I've kind of written off the WC anyway.. if you offered me guaranteed WC or Euros, I'd take the Euros.. we have to be in our home Euros
By the way.. another thing making the play offs so important
If Norn Iron are still considered "part of the bid".. then they'll be in Path B next time
Only two of the "bid Nations" get automatic qualification
England will qualify through groups, so us, Scotland, Wales.. you'd imagine one of Scotland and Wales would qualify.. leaving us in by default
But, if Norn Iron are in the mix..then as a Path B team, they'd automatically be ranked higher than us, should we drop to Path C..
Then we'd need two of Scotland, Wales, Norn Iron to qualify direct for us to pick up a default spot
March's games will be so so important for us for the next half a decade
Maybe, it's all low probability because you have to ultimately end up in the Top 16 in Europe, which given our current plight is very difficult.
But I think you'd definitely hope for a weak first seed like Austria. Imagine you get Austria and Slovakia and the Faroes - you've got an outside chance to win the group which qualifies you directly and I don't think you're any less likely to come second. If you get say Germany and Slovakia and you come second - then you're in a quarter final, let's imagine with Poland and then a final against Ukraine (so even if we come second, we've only got max a 20% chance of qualifying for the world cup. It drops dramatically if a second seed underperforms (think France going to the playoffs in 2009)
Once again, mapping it out. Group winners:
Austria 55%
Slovakia 23%
Ireland 22%
-
Germany 96%
Slovakia 2%
Ireland 2%
and chance of assuming the favourites win, then the chance is still about 50-50 between you and Slovakia.
So qualification likelihoods in Scenario A is about 32% and in Scenario B is 12%.
You could argue whether a bad second seed is more important that a bad first seed - but i think both second seed pools are pretty equal, so I don't think our chances of getting a bad team really change much depending on which group (2 strong teams, 2 average teams, 2 weak teams - maybe the 5 team group is a little weaker)
Bulgaria it is.
Have to be happy with that - albeit we drew twice with them in 2020, so it certainly won't be a gimme.
Bloody hell Bulgaria lost 5-0 to the North last month,would be a disappointment to lose over 2 legs to them you’d feel……
Last edited by joey B; 22/11/2024 at 10:32 AM.
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
Well, the Charlton years kicked off with a win in Bulgaria.. albeit, a Scottish win.. so maybe this might be a sign, that we've hit the bottom and will start to climb from here
They're beatable.. but we'll have to be on our game.. but they are beatable
I can see two pretty boring games coming up though
I see the poor Scots got stuck with Greece
Bulgaria beat them in Sofia in September, that was the North's only loss in the group
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E...ague_C#Group_3
Strangely it's also Bulgaria's only defeat in the past 12 months, and they've only conceded twice this year outside of that game.
But that's the Nations League for you in a way. They were bottom of their Euro qualifying group before that, without a win in a group of Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro and Lithuania. They did draw at home to Hungary and home and away to Serbia though, so they're not without their moments.
Let's not talk them up. They drew twice with Belarus, and lost 5-0 away to the North in their NL group. And judging by their 2024 results, they do not have a striker (6 goals in 10 games). Very beatable opposition.
They've lost once in their last twelve with three wins. Previous to that they lost six from eight. They are draw merchants.
Since the 90s, is there another nation in Europe who have fallen as much as ourselves & Bulgaria?
It's a great draw
They aren't complete minos, but v beatable. Think of the confidence boast. If we beat them.
We will have beaten Finland twice who these players lost twice too and beaten Bulgaria who we couldnt beat last time.
Last edited by Diggs246; 22/11/2024 at 11:28 AM.
Last time we played Bulgaria, we started with a front line of Ronan Curtis, James Collins and Daryl Horgan. No disrespect to these players, but our options are considerably stronger now than then. And looking at the current Bulgaria squad, the bulk of their players are pulled from their domestic league which is ranked 28th in Europe. The LOI is ranked 32nd for reference. Nothing is a gimme in international football but we have to be backing ourselves here.
happy out, flights booked, roll on 2025!
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks