Originally Posted by
samhaydenjr
Well, things definitely look much brighter than they did when you posted in 2004, Ramondo - for starters, as of now, we have 122 qualified athletes, compared to 46 in '04. And there are more medal hopefuls - so many, in fact, that it will be somewhat disappointing if we don't top our haul from 2012. I've grouped them into three rough categories: serious medal contenders, who would be disappointed not to win a medal in a given event; those with a fair chance, where a medal is a distinct possibility but you couldn't quite say it's expected; outside chances, where we could get a medal if the relevant athlete/team plays out of their skins and/or some of their competitors underperform. So here is that list, as I see it:
Serious medal candidates:
1. Daniel Wiffenx2 - Swimming - 800m and 1500m freestyle - World Champion in both, World Record holder over 800m short-course, triple European Champion in short-course. Caveat for Wiffen - in the 2023 Worlds, he came fourth behind three swimmers who are about his age - two of them did not compete against him in 2024.
2. Rhasidat Adeleke - Athletics - 400m - her rise to the top has been stunning - she is already a superstar, with three European medals under her belt aged 21. Her PB of 49.07 would have won a medal at pretty much any Worlds, Olympics or Europeans. Caveat - Natalia Kaczmarek's stunning run to beat Rhasidat in the Euros means there's now four women in the field who have run sub-49 seconds
3. Rhys McClenaghan - Gymnastics - Pommel Horse - double World Champion, triple European Champion - undoubtedly the man to beat in his discipline. Caveat - underperformed in two major championships, including the last Olympics
4. Fintan McCarthy and Paul O'Donovan - Rowing - Lightweight Double Sculls - as a pair, Olympic Champions, double World Champions, Triple World Champions - made the German boat look like plucky underdogs happy to win silver in Tokyo.
5. Kellie Harrington - Boxing - Women's Lightweight - World, Olympic and European Champion - I thought she fought better in her final than Katie Taylor in 2012
Fair Chance at a medal:
1. Mixed 4x400m relay - Athletics - European Champions, bronze at the World Relays - an amazing few months has put them really in the mix - I'm almost tempted to upgrade them to Serious contenders. Caveat - if Rhasidat's coach decides she should focus on the individual 400m (had she broken 11 seconds in the 100 at the National CHampionships today, that would have created a scheduling clash)
2. Ciara Mageean - Athletics - 1500m - European Gold in 2024, silver in 2022, fourth in Tokyo. Also close to being a serious contender, but with Faith Kipyegon almost a lock for the gold, that leaves her competing with a number of other talented runners for the minor medals
3. The Golfers - any of the four could win a medal, but given the nature of golf, I wouldn't expect a medal from any of them, not even Rory. He does have as good a chance as anyone else in the field and a better chance than most.
4. Men's Rugby Sevens - third in the 2022 Sevens World Cup, second in the 2023-24 Sevens Series, coming second or third in four of the seven tournaments. However, they didn't win any and never seemed to top their group
5. Rowing - we've been picking up medals in rowing at Worlds, Europeans and Olympics, even when Paul O'Donovan isn't in the boat, so there's definitely a fair chance of a second medal in rowing.
6. Boxing x 2 - Apart from Harrington, six of our boxers have won medals at major championships
Outside Chance:
1. Women's 4x400m relay - Athletics - European Silver Medalists but with the Americans and Jamaicans also to compete, they may have to go up another level to claim hardware
2. Sarah Healy - Athletics - 1500m - stellar underage, hasn't quite translated it into senior success yet, but has started reaching major finals - you never know
3. Boxing x 2 more - if they have a really great meet
4. Rowing - a third medal if they have a really great regatta
5. Lara Gillespie - Track Cycling - Omnium/Madison - multiple medals at underage championships. Came fourth in the Omnium and sixth in the Madison at this year's senior Europeans, competing against much more experienced riders. This year may be too soon but you never know.
6. Equestrian - have disappointed on a number of occasions but capable of winning medals if they can keep the horses off drugs and get them to dance better (but why is Bertram Allen omitted again?)
7. Women's Rugby Sevens - seventh in the World Series, but did win one tournament - would need to produce at least two upsets to medal, but that's possible
8. Mona MacSharry - Swimming - Olympic finalist, multiple medal winner at major short-course and underage Championships - would need to up her game but not impossible
9. Ellen Walshe - Swimming - similar to MacSharry, but not as many medals and not yet an Olympic finalist
10. Jack Woolley - desparately unlucky to be beaten by a semi-finalist in 2021 - has since won two European medals
11. A second golfing medal - Rory plus one of the others
So, in total, I make that six medals where we have a serious contender, seven where he have a fair chance, and twelve where there's an outside chance. So if everything went our way, we could be looking at 25 medals, although 6-10 is a more realistic goal, which would still be fantastic.
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