What we need to happen

[Stuttgart88]

I think your right ... think having to win 2-0 might be a bit tough ...think if we just have to beat switzerland without having to win by a certain margin knowing we could get second would be the best option ...

Interesting dilemma: we're 1 up with 10 mins to go. A 2-0 win wins us the group. They need a draw. What do you do?

[gspain]

Posted already but please read carefully.

Best result for us is Switzerland to beat France 2-0/3-1/4-2 etc.

This means a 1 goal win v Swiss gives us the playoff and Swiss the group.

A 2 goal win gives us the group and Swiss the playoff.

Means if we do go 1 up Swiss won't be trying too hard to equalise rather ensure they don't concede another.

French win or draw means we need to win both games for the playoff.

Worst result possible is 2-1/3-2/4-3 to Swiss as a 1-0 win will probably still mean elimination for us.

[Stuttgart88]

Sorry you're right - oversight on my part. I even posted exactly what you have just said about 12 posts ago!

But OK, do we chase a 2-0 to win the group when a 1-0 is enough for second (say the Swiss have beaten France 2-0)? Similar dilemma.

Please don't ask me to read carefully - I've been as meticulous as anyone in explaining the permutations to those who not interested enough or who couldn't be bothered to work them out for themselves. I even took the (bloody substantial) effort to prepare & update the original spreadsheet posted on this site that works out the combo's and I modified it yesterday to include the "3 way tie" outcomes. You can view it on Tetsujin's site.

[Volcán Masaya]

Posted already but please read carefully.

Best result for us is Switzerland to beat France 2-0/3-1/4-2 etc.

This means a 1 goal win v Swiss gives us the playoff and Swiss the group.

A 2 goal win gives us the group and Swiss the playoff.

Means if we do go 1 up Swiss won't be trying too hard to equalise rather ensure they don't concede another.

French win or draw means we need to win both games for the playoff.

Worst result possible is 2-1/3-2/4-3 to Swiss as a 1-0 win will probably still mean elimination for us.

Lads, we don't need to be worrying oursleves about 3-2 Swiss wins. Not gonna happen. That's away with the faeries stuff.

The bottom line is we need to win next two games. We should beat Cyprus, even without RoyK, Reid, etc. Seriously, if we can't beat them without a few key players, then we have no business in the WC.

Now, the key thing is that the last game will be a win only situation for us. So it will be interesting to see how Kerr responds to that. My main criticism of him is that he is tooooo conservative and is more afraid of losing than going for the win. I believe this has cost us dearly, esp against Isreal the first time and against Swiss the first. We should have gone for the jugular and we didn't.
It's almost as if he's stuck in the old "2 pts for a win" days, when it made sense to play it cagey and settle for half the points. We need someone who's not afraid to roll the dice and go for the 3 pts. In this day and age it's actually more benefical to win some games and lose others than to draw all the time and only get the one point..... i.e... 2 wins and 2 loses is 6pts..... 4 draws is 4pts.

[zinedineontour]

Beat the Cypriots and worry bout it then me thinks !

[Dotsy]

Beat the Cypriots and worry bout it then me thinks !

Spot on. Whetever happens we need to win that one by as many goals as possible and then do whatever needs to be done on the last day.

[deego11]

good article from Irish Independent today sums up the permutations!

AMAZING as it seems after Wednesday's defeat by France in Lansdowne Road, Ireland can still win Group Four and qualify automatically for next summer's World Cup Finals.

However, we must beat Cyprus (away) on October 8 and Switzerland (home) on October 12 to keep our World Cup hopes alive. Draws are no longer any good at this stage.
Two wins from our final two games will leave us on 19 points and the following factors then come into play.
If France win their final two games against Switzerland (away) on October 8 and Cyprus (home) on October 12 they will finish on 22 points, win the group and qualify automatically for Germany. Ireland will finish second and go into the play-offs.

If France draw with Switzerland and beat Cyprus they will finish on 20 points and will win the group. Ireland will finish second.

If France lose to Switzerland and beat Cyprus they will finish on 19 points as will Switzerland and Ireland and FIFA's regulations come into play.

The first method of division is the greater number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.
With a draw and a win each team would be on four points so it would be impossible to divide them on this basis.

The next criteria is goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned. At present this is France (+1), Switzerland (0) and Ireland (-1). Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by two goals more than the Swiss beat France to win the group and qualify automatically.

If the sides have the same goal difference then the greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams will be used to divide them. At present this reads France (1), Switzerland (1), Ireland (1). Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by two goals more than the Swiss score against France which is also what they would need to qualify through goal difference.

If the Swiss beat France 1-0 and Ireland win 1-0 in Dublin then France are out and Ireland and Switzerland are level on goals scored (2). However, if it is a high scoring game between Switzerland and France then Ireland could be out if they don't score at least one more goal than the French and would have to settle for a play-off spot if they don't get two more than the Swiss.

If Ireland and Switzerland cannot be separated at this stage then FIFA will take the goal difference in all group matches and at present this is Switzerland (+11) and Ireland (+6). Ireland will need to beat Cyprus by at least six goals to gain the upper hand here.

The final criteria is the greater number of goals scored in all the group matches and once again Switzerland hold the upper hand with 16 while Ireland have 11 but if Ireland have got to this stage by hammering Cyprus then they will edge the Swiss here and there will be no need for a play-off at a neutral venue.
So, everything is still in the melting pot as far as Group Four is concerned and two wins should be good enough to at least guarantee Ireland a place in the play-offs.

[gaf1983]

Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by two goals more than the Swiss score against France which is also what they would need to qualify through goal difference.

surely that should read:
" Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by one goal more than the Swiss beat France "

e.g.
if we beat swiss and they beat france all (1-0)

we'd all be (=) goal difference in swiss fra ire mini league.

but if we beat swiss by 2 goals and they beat france by one goal (ie. we beat swiss by one more one more goal tan they beat france) we'd be (+1) swiss wud be (-1) and france wud be (=).

[deego11]

Whoops sorry thought that that was right! its so confusing all the different potentials. now im even more confused!

[deego11]

It's not you who should be apologising, it's the media. The lack of basic numeracy in the media never ceases to astound me. They just can't do simple sums. Over and over again they get it wrong. Before the game, we had the BBC claiming that if Ireland lost they would 'almost certainly' have no chance of qualifying, and now all of a sudden the media discover that that is not true, and that we could still easily qualify if we win our last two games. But still, having looked at the table more closely, they manage to get the calculations wrong. We also have Cunningham now saying that now 'it's out of our hands' (see http://www.eleven-a-side.com/worldcu...p?newsid=19040) but it isn't 'out of our hands'! To be 100% certain of finishing in the top two, all we need to do is beat Cyprus and beat Switzerland by 2.

That is unreal that they can get it so wrong! I automatically took it that it was right, well its their job to have it right isnt it! Very annoying alright.

[Stuttgart88]

It's infuriating alright. It tells me 2 things: (a) they're lazy and (b) they don't care as much as we do.

I honestly think there are 2 traits common to all fans of my era (late-Giles / Hand era) - every time we score we immediately look at the linesman's flag and we've developed the mental agility to run all kinds of group permutations in our minds!

Lazy journalists should just look at some of the posts above for the DEFINITIVE explanation of what needs to happen. It's not difficult.

Edit: I was in a taxi home from watching the match in SW London & was running through the possible outcomes on my mobile to a mate in Dublin. When I stopped the cabby said that Radio 5 had just run through the exact same analysis. Even the thick London cabby who had no interest in our group was able to recap fully what R5 had - accurately - said. At least somebody in the press is doing his job right.