What we need to happen

**Littlest Hobo** · 08/09/2005, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by Tuff Paddy

Lads, as sad as it has made me tonight, we have achieved nothing in this pathetic group. We don't deserve to qualify. We aren't going to Germany. Time to get over it. But at least we lost to former (recent) World Champions. England lost to a team ranked lower than Rwanda and Lebanon.

C'mon Tuff, your usually the most up-beat one around here.
Were still in with a chance, mate.

**zinedineontour** · 08/09/2005, 10:27 AM

If we win our next 2 games i thought we automatically got 2nd as if we on same points as swiss does it not go on how we performed against the swiss ??

**tetsujin1979** · 08/09/2005, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by zinedineontour

If we win our next 2 games i thought we automatically got 2nd as if we on same points as swiss does it not go on how we performed against the swiss ??

Yes, if we beat the swiss and finish on the same points as them, we'll go ahead of them having a better head to head record (1 win and 1 draw VS 1 draw)

**Stuttgart88** · 08/09/2005, 10:47 AM

Yeah zinedine, but France would "beat" us, Swiss would beat the French & we'd beat the Swiss. There's no logical dominant outcome that separates the 3 teams so then it goes down to GD, then GS between the 3 teams in the 6 matches played, then overall GD.

I think there is only one scenario where 6 points will leave us third: if Swiss beat the French by the same margin that we beat the Swiss but in a higher scoring game. Then we'd probably come third to France on overall goal-difference.

As totalfootball says a 2-0 win over Switzerland MUST get us at least second. If we beat the Swiss by more than they beat France (or the same if winning margin > 1) we win the Group.

Simple.

**Dotsy** · 08/09/2005, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by TerryPhelan

I believed you. I expressed as much when I started the France Prediction thread.

I can't understand how people can expect some glorious 2-0 or 3-0 to be plucked out of the air against a reinforced French side full of world class players, purely on the back of empty notions such as 'home advantage', 'guts' or 'heart'. As last night showed, we are simply not good enough. Duff and Robbie Keane never showed up. Kilbane was atrocious. Our last throw of the dice was to throw on a fringe player at a second division Spanish side and a Norwich city reserve. We failed to produce in the final third, and our tactics, for some inexplicable reason, seemed to be about playing the long ball.

The thing is, none of our performances in the group - up until and including last night - give cause for that kind of optimism. Cyprus have been very difficult for better sides than ours to break down away from home. And why people view Switzerland at home as some kind of foregone conclusion is beyond me. Just because we 'owe' them, doesn't somehow entitle us to a victory.

Last night showed that tactically and otherwise, while we can rally and scrap a bit for a while at this level, we don't pose nearly enough attacking threat to worry good teams. In the last 15-20 minutes we lost our shape and went out without a peep. I don't see how, on the back of our performances to date, people can expect much different from the tricky ties ahead of us.

The game last night was a game between two poor teams. They took one of their two chances, we failed to take any of the two or three we had. You are right, it wasn't a foregone conclusion we would win but equally it wasn't a foregone conclusion they would either. A draw would have been a fair result last night. FRance may go on to win this group but I wou'dn't give them a hope of doing anything of note in Germany with this team. I don't think we are much better than Switzerland but IMO it should be a failrly evely matched game and we can nick it but it will be close either way. We hould beat Cyprus no qustion no matter who is suspended. If we don't then we can truly say we didn't deserve to get anything from this group

**thejollyrodger** · 08/09/2005, 11:04 AM

http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin197...mutations.html

Most helpful page ever !!

I expect France to beat Switzerland. They are weaker than us.

I think we will scrape a win out in Cyprus.

It all comes down to the last game. 1st is a pipedream. We might just get a draw at home against switzerland. We dont look like scoring goals

**gaf1983** · 08/09/2005, 11:28 AM

i predict a strange game on the last day - if France beat Swiss and we beat cyprus.
Switzerland and Ireland will both need a win to finish second, whereas a draw will mean neither finish second and Israel go through!

imagine the last few minutes at 0-0 when a draw is useless for both teams!!!!!

**tetsujin1979** · 08/09/2005, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by totalfootball

Yes, but there are a few errors at this page. It isn't true that we need France to drop points against Cyprus for us to finish top, nor is it true that if we beat Switzerland and Cyprus and the Swiss beat the French and the French beat Cyprus that we will definitely finish second - if these results occur we will finish first, second or third, depending on the precise results. Please re-read the rules for what happens if three teams finish equal on points.

Fair enough, I left out the France - Cyprus and Cyprus - Ireland games, I'll put them in

**Stuttgart88** · 08/09/2005, 11:42 AM

I've updated the Group 4 Spreadsheet to include a "mini-league" table between us, France & Switzerland in the event that we all fiinsh on 19 points.

I've e-mailed it to Tetsujin who I hope will make it available for all.

**tetsujin1979** · 08/09/2005, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I've updated the Group 4 Spreadsheet to include a "mini-league" table between us, France & Switzerland in the event that we all fiinsh on 19 points.

I've e-mailed it to Tetsujin who I hope will make it available for all.

Done and done - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip
I've updated the results for the MobileGroupTable, and there's a slightly newer version available on the site below, the only difference is now you can scroll the group screen over to see the points in the table, some people were complaining the screens on their phones were too small for it. If you're happy with it as it is, don't download the newer version, just hit update in the menu You'll notice it now defaults to the next set of games as well

**zinedineontour** · 08/09/2005, 12:12 PM

so obivously we will hopefully win our two games ..

so france v switz ? should we be hoping for switz win so we may top the group ? or france win so that we have better chance of second ??

**Stuttgart88** · 08/09/2005, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by zinedineontour

so france v switz ? should we be hoping for switz win so we may top the group ? or france win so that we have better chance of second ??

Depends on whether you're an optimist or not!

Personally I think a 1-0 or any 2 goal win for Switzerland is the best outcome. A 2-0 win over the Swiss would win us the group.

If the Swiss beat the French by 2 then even a 1 goal win for us in Dublin will get us second over France with Switzerland winning the group on overall goal difference. The risk is a 2-1 win for Switzerland & we only beat Switzerland 1-0. In that scenario we come third.

In one sense though a Swiss win means that they're more likely to be able to beat us too & they'll be in a good state of mind for Dublin etc. But sod it, we should be beating them regardless. Otherwise we don't deserve it as many have said above.

**Stuttgart88** · 08/09/2005, 12:53 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

The risk is a 2-1 win for Switzerland & we only beat Switzerland 1-0. In that scenario we come third.

Zinedine, would that be a risk you'd be prepared to take? Or would you prefer a French win / draw just to completely put this possibility out of the equation?

Personally, I'm hoping for a Swiss win & then take it from there. I'd really fear for our play-off chances. Too many good teams out there.

**Stuttgart88** · 08/09/2005, 12:57 PM

totalfootball, I was editing my post as you were submitting yours!

**Stuttgart88** · 08/09/2005, 1:14 PM

Originally Posted by totalfootball

5) Switzerland beat France by one goal by some other score than 1-0. In this case we will probably need to beat Switzerland by the same score as they beat France, or by a better score, in order to avoid elimination. The advantage of Switzerland beating France by 2-1, or by 3-2, etc. would be that we would still have a chance of winning the group, but this would only happen if we beat the Swiss by two goals, or beat them by the same score as they beat France and beat the Cypriots by five. I feel this would be the worst result from the Swiss-French game because of the danger of not finishing in the top two, even if we win our last two games.

I'm not sure I agree on beating Cyprus by 5 though based on your thoroughness so far you're probably right.

If, say, Sitzerland beats France 2-1 and we beat Switzerland 1-0, Switzerland will win the group of three on goals scored. France & ourselves will tie on goal difference & on goals scored & it'll go down to total group goal difference. On that basis if we better France's win over Cyprus our overall GD will be better than France's. And even if we exactly match France's win over Cyprus we'd go through on overall goals scored (by +2).

**eirebhoy** · 08/09/2005, 2:05 PM

France haven't lost a competitive away match since 1992 so there's little chance of a Swiss win.

**Schumi** · 08/09/2005, 2:26 PM

There's another point to consider here. If France and Switzerland draw, then a draw against us is likely to be enough for Switzerland to get second which won't help us at all.

**elroy** · 08/09/2005, 4:39 PM

Christ lads, my head is wrecked with all these permutations.

Personnally after last night I think top spot is gone from us, although I think we played quite well and were very unlucky to lose in what was a tight game won by a moment of genius.
Therefore, I think the best result for us is a French win in Switzerland as that would mean the Swiss would be coming here needing a win also to qualify. This should lead to an open game which would def suit us (in particular Duff) better. I couldnt see us scoring two goals against the Swiss if they had beaten France and only needed a draw here.

**holidaysong** · 08/09/2005, 6:22 PM

Originally Posted by elroy

Christ lads, my head is wrecked with all these permutations.

Personnally after last night I think top spot is gone from us, although I think we played quite well and were very unlucky to lose in what was a tight game won by a moment of genius.
Therefore, I think the best result for us is a French win in Switzerland as that would mean the Swiss would be coming here needing a win also to qualify. This should lead to an open game which would def suit us (in particular Duff) better. I couldnt see us scoring two goals against the Swiss if they had beaten France and only needed a draw here.

Yeah that is what I think too. I just want to know going into the Switzerland game that if we win then we definately have second place, even if it is just a 1-0. I don't fancy us having to win by more than one goal against the Swiss.

**zinedineontour** · 08/09/2005, 6:44 PM

Originally Posted by holidaysong

Yeah that is what I think too. I just want to know going into the Switzerland game that if we win then we definately have second place, even if it is just a 1-0. I don't fancy us having to win by more than one goal against the Swiss.

I think your right ... think having to win 2-0 might be a bit tough ...think if we just have to beat switzerland without having to win by a certain margin knowing we could get second would be the best option ...