Nations League 2024/25

[backstothewall]

It's a good question. Best case scenario is home wins against Greece and Finland, Draws away. Anything against England is a bonus. That's the best case, not exactly what I expect to happen

I think that's staggeringly pessimistic considering the players we have available to us compared to Greece and Finland.

This is an ideal time to ask as no one has any pre-programmed biases because of who the manager is etc.

How many points do people think represents success in that group?

Minimum acceptable return: For me 6 points is the bare minimum.

We should be winning against Finland in Dublin. And we should really get something in Helsinki. We can't contemplate losing in Dublin against Greece either. And there should be something else picked up along the way. That might be it a point against England, a win in Helsinki, beating the Greeks in Dublin or taking a point in Athens. Anything less than that just isn't good enough.

Success: 9 points or more.
A good campaign would be winning home and away against Finland, and a win in Dublin against Greece.

Approaching Best Case: 13 points or more.
That's 6 points against Finland, take at least 4 points against Greece, and either upgrade to a win in Athens and nab a point vs England or fluke a win against England.

[pineapple stu]

A best case scenario of unbeaten against Finland/Greece - who beat us four times from four under Kenny - is "staggeringly pessimistic"?

Bloody hell fire

[backstothewall]

He was sacked for a reason lads. We can and should be doing significantly better than we were under Kenny.

[nigel-harps1954]

We're going to win the group. The scoundrel Kenny is gone and Neil Lennons BIG are going to tear into Carsleys Englanders.

[pineapple stu]

We can send should improve, sure, but to say adding an extra eight points to our haul is "staggeringly pessimistic"?

Eh - no

[Insidetherock]

It'd get us a promotion playoff against a League A team at least - heck of a difference between that and a relegation playoff against a League C team.

We could even get lucky and draw, say, Scotland or Israel in a playoff and win and get promoted. One season in League A, almost a guaranteed Euro 2028 playoff spot, and a few quid extra off the Delaney debt

What's all this "promotion play off", "relegation play off stuff"

There's no promotion play off.. you finish as a Group winner.. you're promoted

You finish 4th in your group, you're relegated

Finish 2nd or 3rd, you stay in Path B

The only play offs are finish top of group, and don't qualify automatically, there's a place for Path B teams via a play off

Historically, if you finish 2nd in Path B, you're guaranteed at least a shot at Euros via the play off

For the last WC, the four group winners got a shot at a WC play off.. but that was when there were 3 team groups, so only 12 teams in Path A.. now Path A has 16 teams,

Europe get 16 spots..

10 or 12 groups (likely 12, winners go in direct)

4 extra space will come from Group A teams not qualified, plus 4 from Group B (4 winners, or next best)

[seanfhear]

He was sacked for a reason lads. We can and should be doing significantly better than we were under Kenny.

Kenny was worse than worse.

[nigel-harps1954]

What's all this "promotion play off", "relegation play off stuff"

There's no promotion play off.. you finish as a Group winner.. you're promoted

You finish 4th in your group, you're relegated

Finish 2nd or 3rd, you stay in Path B

The only play offs are finish top of group, and don't qualify automatically, there's a place for Path B teams via a play off

Historically, if you finish 2nd in Path B, you're guaranteed at least a shot at Euros via the play off

For the last WC, the four group winners got a shot at a WC play off.. but that was when there were 3 team groups, so only 12 teams in Path A.. now Path A has 16 teams,

Europe get 16 spots..

10 or 12 groups (likely 12, winners go in direct)

4 extra space will come from Group A teams not qualified, plus 4 from Group B (4 winners, or next best)

There are playoffs for second. The four League B runners-up play the four League A third place teams in March 2025.

[elatedscum]

I think that's staggeringly pessimistic considering the players we have available to us compared to Greece and Finland.

I don't know Finland's players that well, except Lukas Hradecky, Tom Galvez (an English born Man City prospect who they've smartly capped at 18), Glen Kamara, Fredrik Jensen and Teemu Pukki.

Saying that, I think Greece's squad is, on paper, better than ours... I think most would agree

[pineapple stu]

There are playoffs for second. The four League B runners-up play the four League A third place teams in March 2025.

Yep, this.

New format for this year.

Good addition I think

[backstothewall]

Finland had 1 player plying his trade in one of the top 5 European leagues in their most recent squad. He's the sub goalkeeper at Bayer Leverkusen. 11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.

According to transfermarkt their most valuable play is Glen Kamara who they value at €6.00m, and the total valuation of their squad is €32.70m.

Evan Ferguson is our most valuable player, valued at €60m. They value our squad at €166.13m.

Losing home and away to them in 2020 was a national embarrassment. Kenny should have been run out on a rail at that point. That we wasted another 3 years tilting at a League of Ireland windmill doesn't make Finland a good team.

Oh, and their big threat back then was Pukki, who was a goal-scorer any mid-table premier league side would have been glad to have had. He'll be 34 by the time we face them and can't be the same player he was back then.

Tom Galvez (an English born Man City prospect who they've smartly capped at 18)

Smart move. We should be doing that sort of thing much more often than we do.

Saying that, I think Greece's squad is, on paper, better than ours... I think most would agree

I don't think there's all that much in it. I'd say fairly similar quality available to Gus Poyet no matter what dugout he finds himself in.

[samhaydenjr]

Unfortunately second, while a good result, would be useless in terms of World Cup playoff qualification. Meaning the qualification groups are now our only real hope. But this tough draw, plus the run of difficult friendlies we have lined up, limits our chances of getting a second seeding for those groups, meaning another shocker of a draw could be on the way.

We just seem to be on a negative spiral of bad results and bad draws that we can't seem to get out of. I look at the likes of Greece and Norway who have gone 10 and 20 years without a qualification and that looks to be the road we're heading down too. Benefitting from an easier qualification path for euro 2028 as hosts is about the only positive I can see at the moment, to maybe haul us out of this cycle and back towards where we want to be.

Actually, second place would quite possibly be enough to get us into the playoffs. We could even come third and get into the playoffs as long as the group winner and runners up from the main qualification campaign are almost all ranked above us in the Nations League. 12 group winners qualify for the Finals, 12 runners up go into the playoffs, to be joined by the four highest ranked Nations League teams who do not qualify through the main qualification campaign. So, it's possible for the worst third-placed League B team to get into the WC playoffs.

[elatedscum]

Finland had 1 player plying his trade in one of the top 5 European leagues in their most recent squad. He's the sub goalkeeper at Bayer Leverkusen. 11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.

According to transfermarkt their most valuable play is Glen Kamara who they value at €6.00m, and the total valuation of their squad is €32.70m.

Evan Ferguson is our most valuable player, valued at €60m. They value our squad at €166.13m.

Losing home and away to them in 2020 was a national embarrassment. Kenny should have been run out on a rail at that point. That we wasted another 3 years tilting at a League of Ireland windmill doesn't make Finland a good team.

Oh, and their big threat back then was Pukki, who was a goal-scorer any mid-table premier league side would have been glad to have had. He'll be 34 by the time we face them and can't be the same player he was back then.



Smart move. We should be doing that sort of thing much more often than we do.



I don't think there's all that much in it. I'd say fairly similar quality available to Gus Poyet no matter what dugout he finds himself in.

A lot of that is fair enough but I will say two things. I’ve seen a lot of Leverkusen this season and Hradecky isn’t a sub. He’s their captain and has started 19 of 20 games. Not sure quite why he was dropped for that one game but was reinstalled immediately. He’s widely considered one of the three outstanding keepers in the Bundesliga over the last decade alongside Neuer and Gulacsi.

Other thing I’d say is transfermarkt comes with its usual caveats that a lot of it is based on age and contract length. So Kevin De Bruyne is valued the same as Ferguson and Salah is at €65m. Van Dijk is at €35m. However if you wanted to win a game tomorrow, you’d definitely chose them over Evan.

Saying that, I would assume we have a better squad than Finland on paper but I’ve never seen Hakans, Olila, Suhonen, Peltola or Antman play and you do get excellent young players (age 21-23) plying their trade in the second tier in France and Germany along with the MLS and the Norwegian league. So maybe they have a Mahrez or a Almeiron that we don’t know about. Unlikely - but I wasn’t gonna commit to saying they were **** when I had only seen a handful of players. The fact that they are second seeds presumably means they’re not that bad (or they got a very lucky draw in the previous group)

Re the Greek squad. If you asked me objectively, I think if you’re glass half full, you could argue that we would have 6 players in a combined 11 - but glass half empty and you could also argue that the Greeks could have 9 of a combined 11. I think only at right back and centre back are we guaranteed a player. As good as Evan is, Pavlidis has scored 20 goals in 20 games for AZ in the Eredivisie - so right now, it’s definitely a selection choice. Maybe Bazunu gets in over Vlachodimis. Maybe Ogbene and Cullen also get in, but maybe not too.

[CSAD]

A lot of that is fair enough but I will say two things. I’ve seen a lot of Leverkusen this season and Hradecky isn’t a sub. He’s their captain and has started 19 of 20 games. Not sure quite why he was dropped for that one game but was reinstalled immediately. He’s widely considered one of the three outstanding keepers in the Bundesliga over the last decade alongside Neuer and Gulacsi.

Other thing I’d say is transfermarkt comes with its usual caveats that a lot of it is based on age and contract length. So Kevin De Bruyne is valued the same as Ferguson and Salah is at €65m. Van Dijk is at €35m. However if you wanted to win a game tomorrow, you’d definitely chose them over Evan.

Saying that, I would assume we have a better squad than Finland on paper but I’ve never seen Hakans, Olila, Suhonen, Peltola or Antman play and you do get excellent young players (age 21-23) plying their trade in the second tier in France and Germany along with the MLS and the Norwegian league. So maybe they have a Mahrez or a Almeiron that we don’t know about. Unlikely - but I wasn’t gonna commit to saying they were **** when I had only seen a handful of players. The fact that they are second seeds presumably means they’re not that bad (or they got a very lucky draw in the previous group)

Re the Greek squad. If you asked me objectively, I think if you’re glass half full, you could argue that we would have 6 players in a combined 11 - but glass half empty and you could also argue that the Greeks could have 9 of a combined 11.I think only at right back and centre back are we guaranteed a player. As good as Evan is, Pavlidis has scored 20 goals in 20 games for AZ in the Eredivisie - so right now, it’s definitely a selection choice. Maybe Bazunu gets in over Vlachodimis. Maybe Ogbene and Cullen also get in, but maybe not too.

"The Greeks could have 9 in a combined 11"...I've seen some hilarious takes where Irish fans desperately try to talk up the opposition but this has to be a new one. Idk why fans who clearly know very little about the Greek squad feel the need to talk them up so much!

[tetsujin1979]

"The Greeks could have 9 in a combined 11"...I've seen some hilarious takes where Irish fans desperately try to talk up the opposition but this has to be a new one. Idk why fans who clearly know very little about the Greek squad feel the need to talk them up so much!

We have seen quite a bit of the Greek squad over the last 12 months, I think we're reasonably educated on their abilities

[pineapple stu]

11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.

Yeah, don't go saying that in Finland. Finland is not in Scandinavia no more than we're in the UK.

elated has given a good response to your summary of the teams, but I would add that while two of the Finns are playing in top five leagues (there's a guy at Augsburg as well), we're not exactly over-endowed with players in those leagues ourselves, and if you take out those in big relegation trouble you're left with Kelleher, Doherty and Ferguson I think. Most of our squad is bog-standard Championship players.

You would certainly hope a new manager would have us competing with Finland and Greece and the three-team mini group (behind England) would be very tight. But that's a long way from saying that a best case scenario of going unbeaten against them is "staggeringly pessimistic". That makes no sense at all.

[pineapple stu]

Fixture list is out -

Saturday, 7 September: Ireland v England, KO 5pm
Tuesday, 10 September 10: Ireland v Greece, KO 7.45pm
Thursday, 10 October: Finland v Ireland, KO 7.45pm
Sunday, 13 October: Greece v Ireland, KO 7.45pm
Thursday, 14 November: Ireland v Finland, KO 7.45pm
Sunday, 17 November: England v Ireland, KO 5pm

Greece at home in the second game is huge. If we lose that, then the October games look nasty in terms of avoiding relegation.

[CSAD]

We have seen quite a bit of the Greek squad over the last 12 months, I think we're reasonably educated on their abilities

One team looked well set up and knew what they were supposed to be doing, the other didnt and we were the later.

[ltfc_2004]

Will the guards allow a 5pm kick off on a Saturday against England ?

[Fixer82]

Is it the Shop or the Country ? !

The shop is gone out of Ireland so it's abroad anyway