A best case scenario of unbeaten against Finland/Greece - who beat us four times from four under Kenny - is "staggeringly pessimistic"?
Bloody hell fire
I think that's staggeringly pessimistic considering the players we have available to us compared to Greece and Finland.
Minimum acceptable return: For me 6 points is the bare minimum.
We should be winning against Finland in Dublin. And we should really get something in Helsinki. We can't contemplate losing in Dublin against Greece either. And there should be something else picked up along the way. That might be it a point against England, a win in Helsinki, beating the Greeks in Dublin or taking a point in Athens. Anything less than that just isn't good enough.
Success: 9 points or more.
A good campaign would be winning home and away against Finland, and a win in Dublin against Greece.
Approaching Best Case: 13 points or more.
That's 6 points against Finland, take at least 4 points against Greece, and either upgrade to a win in Athens and nab a point vs England or fluke a win against England.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
A best case scenario of unbeaten against Finland/Greece - who beat us four times from four under Kenny - is "staggeringly pessimistic"?
Bloody hell fire
Last edited by pineapple stu; 08/02/2024 at 8:57 PM.
He was sacked for a reason lads. We can and should be doing significantly better than we were under Kenny.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
We're going to win the group. The scoundrel Kenny is gone and Neil Lennons BIG are going to tear into Carsleys Englanders.
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
We can send should improve, sure, but to say adding an extra eight points to our haul is "staggeringly pessimistic"?
Eh - no
What's all this "promotion play off", "relegation play off stuff"
There's no promotion play off.. you finish as a Group winner.. you're promoted
You finish 4th in your group, you're relegated
Finish 2nd or 3rd, you stay in Path B
The only play offs are finish top of group, and don't qualify automatically, there's a place for Path B teams via a play off
Historically, if you finish 2nd in Path B, you're guaranteed at least a shot at Euros via the play off
For the last WC, the four group winners got a shot at a WC play off.. but that was when there were 3 team groups, so only 12 teams in Path A.. now Path A has 16 teams,
Europe get 16 spots..
10 or 12 groups (likely 12, winners go in direct)
4 extra space will come from Group A teams not qualified, plus 4 from Group B (4 winners, or next best)
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
I don't know Finland's players that well, except Lukas Hradecky, Tom Galvez (an English born Man City prospect who they've smartly capped at 18), Glen Kamara, Fredrik Jensen and Teemu Pukki.
Saying that, I think Greece's squad is, on paper, better than ours... I think most would agree
Finland had 1 player plying his trade in one of the top 5 European leagues in their most recent squad. He's the sub goalkeeper at Bayer Leverkusen. 11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.
According to transfermarkt their most valuable play is Glen Kamara who they value at €6.00m, and the total valuation of their squad is €32.70m.
Evan Ferguson is our most valuable player, valued at €60m. They value our squad at €166.13m.
Losing home and away to them in 2020 was a national embarrassment. Kenny should have been run out on a rail at that point. That we wasted another 3 years tilting at a League of Ireland windmill doesn't make Finland a good team.
Oh, and their big threat back then was Pukki, who was a goal-scorer any mid-table premier league side would have been glad to have had. He'll be 34 by the time we face them and can't be the same player he was back then.
Smart move. We should be doing that sort of thing much more often than we do.
I don't think there's all that much in it. I'd say fairly similar quality available to Gus Poyet no matter what dugout he finds himself in.
Last edited by backstothewall; 08/02/2024 at 10:07 PM.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
Actually, second place would quite possibly be enough to get us into the playoffs. We could even come third and get into the playoffs as long as the group winner and runners up from the main qualification campaign are almost all ranked above us in the Nations League. 12 group winners qualify for the Finals, 12 runners up go into the playoffs, to be joined by the four highest ranked Nations League teams who do not qualify through the main qualification campaign. So, it's possible for the worst third-placed League B team to get into the WC playoffs.
Last edited by samhaydenjr; 09/02/2024 at 1:21 AM.
A lot of that is fair enough but I will say two things. I’ve seen a lot of Leverkusen this season and Hradecky isn’t a sub. He’s their captain and has started 19 of 20 games. Not sure quite why he was dropped for that one game but was reinstalled immediately. He’s widely considered one of the three outstanding keepers in the Bundesliga over the last decade alongside Neuer and Gulacsi.
Other thing I’d say is transfermarkt comes with its usual caveats that a lot of it is based on age and contract length. So Kevin De Bruyne is valued the same as Ferguson and Salah is at €65m. Van Dijk is at €35m. However if you wanted to win a game tomorrow, you’d definitely chose them over Evan.
Saying that, I would assume we have a better squad than Finland on paper but I’ve never seen Hakans, Olila, Suhonen, Peltola or Antman play and you do get excellent young players (age 21-23) plying their trade in the second tier in France and Germany along with the MLS and the Norwegian league. So maybe they have a Mahrez or a Almeiron that we don’t know about. Unlikely - but I wasn’t gonna commit to saying they were **** when I had only seen a handful of players. The fact that they are second seeds presumably means they’re not that bad (or they got a very lucky draw in the previous group)
Re the Greek squad. If you asked me objectively, I think if you’re glass half full, you could argue that we would have 6 players in a combined 11 - but glass half empty and you could also argue that the Greeks could have 9 of a combined 11. I think only at right back and centre back are we guaranteed a player. As good as Evan is, Pavlidis has scored 20 goals in 20 games for AZ in the Eredivisie - so right now, it’s definitely a selection choice. Maybe Bazunu gets in over Vlachodimis. Maybe Ogbene and Cullen also get in, but maybe not too.
Last edited by elatedscum; 09/02/2024 at 2:45 AM.
Yeah, don't go saying that in Finland. Finland is not in Scandinavia no more than we're in the UK.
elated has given a good response to your summary of the teams, but I would add that while two of the Finns are playing in top five leagues (there's a guy at Augsburg as well), we're not exactly over-endowed with players in those leagues ourselves, and if you take out those in big relegation trouble you're left with Kelleher, Doherty and Ferguson I think. Most of our squad is bog-standard Championship players.
You would certainly hope a new manager would have us competing with Finland and Greece and the three-team mini group (behind England) would be very tight. But that's a long way from saying that a best case scenario of going unbeaten against them is "staggeringly pessimistic". That makes no sense at all.
Fixture list is out -
Saturday, 7 September: Ireland v England, KO 5pm
Tuesday, 10 September 10: Ireland v Greece, KO 7.45pm
Thursday, 10 October: Finland v Ireland, KO 7.45pm
Sunday, 13 October: Greece v Ireland, KO 7.45pm
Thursday, 14 November: Ireland v Finland, KO 7.45pm
Sunday, 17 November: England v Ireland, KO 5pm
Greece at home in the second game is huge. If we lose that, then the October games look nasty in terms of avoiding relegation.
Will the guards allow a 5pm kick off on a Saturday against England ?
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