Confidence is the key for Kerr's republic

[TerryPhelan]

Confidence is the key for Kerr's republic
30/08/2005 - 07:28:03

Republic of Ireland boss Brian Kerr is convinced self-belief is the key to his side qualifying for the World Cup.

Manchester United midfielder Roy Keane and Tottenham striker Robbie Keane are back in Kerr’s squad for the Lansdowne Road showdown with France on September 7.

The former was rested for the friendly against Italy earlier this month, while an ankle injury kept the latter – Ireland’s all-time leading scorer – out of the game.

With three matches remaining, Ireland top Group Four by a point from Switzerland, two from Israel and three from France, albeit with the Swiss and the French having a game in hand.

Raymond Domenech’s French outfit first take on the Faroe Islands on Saturday, with Switzerland at home to Israel on the same night, by the end of which Ireland could well find themselves down to third.

But with matches in Cyprus and at home to the Swiss to follow, a top-two finish is firmly within Ireland’s grasp, and with it a potential ticket to Germany.

“Three of the top four teams are completely in control of their own destiny,” said Kerr.

“Israel are the exception as they can only finish on 20 points, while ourselves and France can take 22, with Switzerland 24.

“I presume that’s how everyone else will be looking at it. I know that’s how we are looking at it. We know we need to do our own job in the last three matches.

“We have to rely on our own ability and our own confidence to go out and do that job.”

With a France victory against the Faroes expected, the result between Switzerland and Israel is a key one, and Kerr has been unable to determine what would be best for his side.

“If Israel beat Switzerland they can end up with the 20 points,” added Kerr.

“That would mean the other teams have to finish better than that to win the group, and in our case we would need seven points from our last three games to draw level, and to win our last three to better them.

“But if Switzerland win I believe that would knock Israel out of it, with the Swiss in a strong position, although they would still have to play France at home and us in their last game.”

The Republic do have an edge in that they have won the last three World Cup qualifiers in Dublin against France – albeit in 1972, 1977 and 1981.

Kerr was dismissive of such a record and instead focused on attracting the right support.

“I don’t think any of the previous matches will have any influence,” said Kerr.

“This is the game. This is the match that matters now, with history not counting much, except it may have an influence psychologically in the minds of the French players.

“What may have a serious influence is the fact we are at home, especially if our crowd are as passionate as they were in Paris last October when we held France to a goalless draw.

“They were a major factor, with more of them there that night than I think we will have for this game in Dublin.

“But if the people who turn up in Dublin are as mad as they were in Paris, then it won’t be a bad thing.”

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2005/08/30/story218405.html

Let's hope the crowd are as fired up at Lansdowne as they were in Paris. But equally, let's hope the players are too. The salient characteristic of Brian Kerr's profile as a manager is that he is a master when it comes to good psychological preparation, with the much-vaunted 'video analysis of the opposition' (actually introduced by McCarthy) seen as the miracle drug to eradicate the contagious bumbling of the FAI which was perceived to have spread to our performances. We have yet to witness the fruits of this 'revolution'. Our mental weaknesses at crucial junctures in important games (1-0 up in Basel, 1-0 up in Tel Aviv, 2-0 up at home) have cost us 6 points now. I do not accept that the away results are points 'gained'. We took the lead. We had the initiative. We had the players. We didn't have the bottle. Even though we weren't playing particularly well (and I say this with Basel in mind more than anything else), we should still back ourselves enough to grind out a result. Every team has substandard performances, but the sign of a good team is their mental strength (and admittedly, some luck) which enables them to hold on to a lead in spite of the flow, and in spite of themselves. We simply didn't have that strength. Kerr is right in that to beat France we will need to back ourselves (even though he still hasn't come out and said we are going out to win this game). But we need to start backing ourselves when we are 1-0 up, rather than just when we're 1-0 down. The centre of the Irish defence will be the fulcrum on which this game will pivot. Make no mistake, France are going to be having a right old go at us, and we were given a glimpse in the first 30 minutes against Italy of how much joy opposition can get out of pressuring our centre backs. This was also evidenced in the Romania friendly, where Cunningham looked all at sea when balls were knocked in behind him. And while undoubtedly solid, neither of our centre halves are what you would call 'pacy'. Thusfar, it has been our fullbacks who have borne the brunt of opposition pressure. I fear O'Brien and Cunningham could be in for a miserable evening if the French can identify this. Henry haring onto Zidane passes poked through our defence seem, in the wake of the Italian game, the most likely source of French goalscoring.

The crowd will rise to the occasion if they are given something to rise to. If Ireland can make it to the hour-mark without conceding or falling behind, Lansdowne will be a cauldron, and we could be set up for a last half-hour of a more vintage Irish performance. Kerr has asked for the crowd to get behind the team with as much passion and fire as they did in Paris. This is a given. What we ask is for an Irish performance to get behind. This is not such a certitude.

[wallis]

There are many similarities between the run up to this game and the Dutch game a few years back. I remember being in my local Irish club and listening to many of the fans asking how would we cope with their attack. Van nistelrooy and Kluivert were suddenly the greatest finishers in europe, davids was a monster in midfield , Overmars was going to take our full backs apart with his pace and what about that defence ? etc etc...

My answer was 'if WE know about the threat then dont you think the players do ?' .

Most of the talk on the forum concerns our lack of pace at the back, who is going to play on the right , is JOS good enough for midfield , will it be 4-5-1 or back to the 4-4-2. These are all things that the players and manager will already have addressed. Just like the Dutch when they came to Lansdowne, we KNOW where the threat will come from. The players have been up against Henry/Wiltord/Gallas/Silvestre/Pires/Viera and co for years. Cunningham and O'Brien know exactly how Henry plays, they are not going to be stupid enough to play far up the pitch and leave acres of space behind them for ZZ to drop a ball into. Nor are the midfield going to stand off the French and allow them to play intricate passes in and around the penalty box. We know how the French will play this football match and it holds no suprises.

I dont think its any coincidence that the Swiss, Israel and us have already held them to a draw (and some on their own patch). Even the Faroes gave them a tough time and why ? because the threat is pace and Henry but nothing else. Trezeguet is gone so we dont have to fear the high ball being knocked down and so the only thing to guard against is being cut through the middle by quick passing and movement. If Zidane cracks home a 30 yard free-kick then so be it.

But what else is there to fear ? The deadly French set piece ? The wing backs running at us ? Makele going on a mazy dribble ? hardly... If they were that good a side they wouldnt be three points behind us. Did they impress you at Euro 2004 ? what about in Paris ?

Lets not forget who tops the group - its us. Which team is everyone else praying will slip up - us. Who has the automatic qualification place in their hands .... and so on.

So follow the managers persona - head to Lansdowne in confidence. Ask yourselves, just how will they cope with Duff ?. When Harte swings in the dead ball who is going to compete in the air with O'Brien or JOS ? How many times will the French keeper come out punching because he cant catch a ball. Whats the look on Vieras face going to be like when Roy stares him down as the anthem roars through a fulll house ? How are they going to beat us - because as we know they MUST beat us to keep their chances alive.

We approach this match knowing that we are so close to that World Cup place - we know that , and so does Brian !

[TerryPhelan]

There are many similarities between the run up to this game and the Dutch game a few years back. I remember being in my local Irish club and listening to many of the fans asking how would we cope with their attack. Van nistelrooy was suddenly the greatest finisher in europe, davids was a monster in midfield , Overmars was going to take our full backs apart with his pace and what about that defence ? etc etc...

My answer was 'if WE know about the threat then dont you think the players do ?' .

Point taken. I remember well the build-up to the Dutch game, and I was convinced that their defence would simply swat away an unfit Keane and out-of-position Duff up front. van Nistelrooy was the big name in the Premiership at the time, and we kept him scoreless. So I accept that. But we should never forget how damn lucky we were against the Dutch too. Kluivert walked through our defence in the first 2 minutes (OK, so there'll be no Gary Kelly he can dispossess this time, but Stevie Carr's form is patchy, and he is prone to outbursts if he's being given the runaround by someone as annoyingly skilful as Henry) and we really should have been 2-0 down after 15 minutes. Our defence is better now than it was then, but I think it would be misguided to laugh off our worries about the Dutch, because going on the amount of clearcut chances they were able to create against us, we were quite lucky to beat them.

Most of the talk on the forum concerns our lack of pace at the back, who is going to play on the right , is JOS good enough for midfield , will it be 4-5-1 or back to the 4-4-2. These are all things that the players and manager will already have addressed.

And yet the players and manager seem at loggerheads about the formation. Any players interviewed about it are adamant that we stick with 4-4-2, whereas Kerr is pretty undecided about whether he will dabble with 4-5-1 or not. Personally I think we have to go with 4-4-2, no matter how unadventurous that may seem. A crucial game against France upon which WC qualification hangs is no time to be vetting an unfamiliar system, which would disrupt the players who are settled and comfortable in their roles.

Just like the Dutch when they came to Lansdowne, we KNOW where the threat will come from. The players have been up against Henry/Wiltord/Gallas/Silvestre/Pires/Viera and co for years. Cunningham and O'Brien know exactly how Henry plays, they are not going to be stupid enough to play far up the pitch and leave acres of space behind them for ZZ to drop a ball into. Nor are the midfield going to stand off the French and allow them to play intricate passes in and around the penalty box. We know how the French will play this football match and it holds no suprises.

Silvestre and Pires will not be playing. Cunningham and O'Brien may well know how Henry plays, but that is not to say they will be able to contain him. Both have been given the runaround by him in the Premiership on countless occasions. We just about coped in Paris because we fielded two rightbacks and they had a threadbare midfield. Just knowing what a player is capable of doing is not that much protection if you cannot cope with them. As an Arsenal fan, I have been watching Henry for years, and would know his game pretty well. However, I wouldn't suggest that this would help me deal with him if it came to marking him in a match! It's a bit facetious, but I hope you see my point that simply knowing about a player or a team does not equate to having an edge or putting a lid on them. My point about the whole 'better preparation' spiel was that we may well know lots about what the other team have done in the past, but we still keep crumbling against them in spite of this knowledge.

I dont think its any coincidence that the Swiss, Israel and us have already held them to a draw (and some on their own patch). Even the Faroes gave them a tough time and why ? because the threat is pace and Henry but nothing else. Trezeguet is gone so we dont have to fear the high ball being knocked down and so the only thing to guard against is being cut through the middle by quick passing and movement. If Zidane cracks home a 30 yard free-kick then so be it.

Agreed, but still, that was a French team whose morale was in decline and who were without the inspiration of ZZ, Makalele and Thuram. As Kerr acknowledged yesterday, it's a huge boost for them, a big improvement and an alteration to their attitude. Things are different now.
By the way, I've been having recurrent nightmares about Zidane popping in a 30-yard free kick the last two weeks. 72 minutes, scores tied at 1-1. 24 hour rosaries being said.

But what else is there to fear ? The deadly French set piece ? The wing backs running at us ? Makele going on a mazy dribble ? hardly... If they were that good a side they wouldnt be three points behind us. Did they impress you at Euro 2004 ? what about in Paris ?

Again, I agree mostly. They did not impress me at Euro 2004. England - similar style, similar players to us - ran them off the park for 89 minutes, and were able to carry Beckham, who was anonymous at best that night, while they were at it. They should have been 2-0 up before half-time. What I am anxious about is them running the midfield. There isn't a weakspot for them there, in my mind. Zidane-Vieira-Makalele-Malouda vs Duff-Keane-Kilbane/Reid-Finnan? We're strong, but it'll be a hell of a battle. Attacking-wise, they have the edge.

Lets not forget who tops the group - its us. Which team is everyone else praying will slip up - us. Who has the automatic qualification place in their hands .... and so on.

It's fairly inconsequential who's top of the group right now, given the games in hand and the different run-ins. I don't know the other side's fixtures off by heart, but we've played Faroes twice and are facing into our two strongest opponents. I don't think we should be deceived by being top of the group when everything is going to be radically altered by September 8th. there's too little between the top teams to make it an issue of any substance.

So follow the managers persona - head to Lansdowne in confidence. Ask yourselves, just how will they cope with Duff ?. When Harte swings in the dead ball who is going to compete in the air with O'Brien or JOS ? How many times will the French keeper come out punching because he cant catch a ball. Whats the look on Vieras face going to be like when Roy stares him down as the anthem roars through a fulll house ? How are they going to beat us - because as we know they MUST beat us to keep their chances alive.

We approach this match knowing that we are so close to that World Cup place - we know that , and so does Brian !

I'm trying to be as optimistic as possible. But I can only allow myself genuine optimism when I have braced myself for what could really pan out. They have got 3 fantastic players back in the side who can inspire and lead their team-mates. It seems to have given everyone there a massive lift. On paper, they are better equipped to win this than us. They have more game-breakers. We have Duff and Robbie, that's it. I am going to cheer my head off and tear my hair out and pray and shout and curse and scream for Ireland when it comes around. I am going to say a lot of politically incorrect things about French people over the course of 90 minutes. But at the back of my mind will be the unshakeable belief that they are better equipped to win this game than us, and we are going to need something very very special to beat them. Fingers and all other opposable digits crossed.

[NeilMcD]

They also had much better players than Greece. Liverpool are hardly the most gifted side in Europe neither were Porto or Wimbledon were not more gifted than Liverpool in 1988. Home advantage counts a huge amount in International football. Just look at the results of the games around Europe over the last 10 years and you will see very few wins againts tops teams away from home. We would be considered a top team so the chances of us losing are slim in my view. I think if we play really well we can win but if we are slightly off our best I think the draw is the likely result.

[Stuttgart88]

Sure, if we're to win we'll probably have to ride our luck. That's a given in any game against a really good team. And yes, Cunningham has been turned over by Henry a few times but by & large Andy O'Brien has done well against him. Shay Given most certainly has.

And as an Arsenal fan I'm glad I've yet to see Henry's Highbury form when he plays for France.

But Terry, please dont be fooled about Kerr thinking of trying 4-5-1. He will start 4-4-2. What he says to the press before the game counts for nothing.

And I don't recall England playing them off the park. England scored from a free kick & should have scored from a Rooney counter attack / penalty. My recollection is that France totally controlled possession that day but failed to create anything at all until Heskey's error on 89 minutes. Our game will be more open than the game in Portugal I reckon.

[wallis]

Hi all - Terry, yes I think you have good points for all off your arguments and I fully understand your concerns.

Im still adamant that knowing what to expect is in our favour. We coped well with Henry in Paris and I honestly prefer playing against Makele and ZZ than the alternatives. ZZ was terrible for Madrid on Sunday and really looks a shadow of the player he was. Im glad Makele will play because he wont get forward and Viera is nothing to be fearful off. I would be more concerned with the line up they played recently against Hungary which was a midfield packed with pace and skill. (Giuly , Rothen , Micoud ?)

the 4-5-1 / 4-4-2 is a tough one. I know that the majority want the 4-4-2 back but I just wonder if 4-5-1 is the way to go. I still maintain that playing JOS, RK and KK in the middle would be a good way to take on the midfielders you named. Then let Duff and Reid operate on the flanks supporting Robbie. RK and JOS play this system at United all the time and its certainly how Ferguson liked to play against Henry/Viera at Arsenal.

My biggest worry is that France play three in the centre against our two and dominate the possession.

I also hope that Harte plays. A free kick or dead ball situation might be what makes or breaks a tight game and he is the man for the job. We all know that his pace isnt great, but in all honesty who is able to keep up with Henry anyway ? I would gladly take that gamble in return of him swinging in some dangerous crosses into the box. I thought the French looked very weak on set pieces in Paris and Thuram/Gallas are not the best in the air.

I really cant see us losing. The pressure on the French is enormous and the praise that the French newspapers are lavishing on the return of ZZ and co just seems to me to be 'whistling in the graveyard' (to quote muhammed ali).

Its one of those game that you cant wait to begin , but will be praying for the final whistle after 15 minutes !

[Cowboy]

Excellent debate guys, very enjoyable reading

[wallis]

One thing is for certain , this will be the defining match for Kerr. If he gets through this without a loss he should be able to take us to germany as group winners. I fear for him if we were to lose, its the perfect opportunity for the Kerr bashers to lay into him and bring up 'missed chances' from previous matches in the group. Im sure the arguments will begin over team selection, formation, who he should have played etc etc.

I want us to get through so that we can all make it to Germany next year because I believe we deserve it on current form (unbeaten, done the 'hard work' of getting away draws at three difficult venues). No offence to the other sides but why should the Swiss, Israel or France take our place ?

Also I firmly believe that we have a good man at the helm in Kerr. We looked in total dissarray when he came in and this in all fairness is his first crack at qualification and here we are top of the group with three games to go. I doubt there is an Ireland supporter out there who wouldnt have taken this scenario if offered it 12 months ago.

If we are well organised, put in a typical hard-working Irish performance and have a little bit of luck (that I think we have sadly lacked so far), we can do this.

[onenilgameover]

Should have tried the whole confidence thing when we had a four on two situation in Israel when we were just 1 up and decided to take the ball back into our own half. I'm not enjoying listening to Kerr right now..

[Stuttgart88]

If we are well organised, put in a typical hard-working Irish performance and have a little bit of luck (that I think we have sadly lacked so far), we can do this.

Undoubtedly. Despite the errors we've made so far, only a little luck would have meant we'd have got away with it. Yer man's shot in Israel was probably the best of his life, the ref in Dublin, O'Shea's shot in Paris was unlucky, Awat's saves...

I want us to get through so that we can all make it to Germany next year because I believe we deserve it on current form

We'll only deserve it if we can get the points necessary. Blowing 2 leads against Israel isn't "current form" I'd like us to maintain.

No offence to the other sides but why should the Swiss, Israel or France take our place ?

Maybe if they get more points than us?

Also I firmly believe that we have a good man at the helm in Kerr. We looked in total dissarray when he came in and this in all fairness is his first crack at qualification and here we are top of the group with three games to go. I doubt there is an Ireland supporter out there who wouldnt have taken this scenario if offered it 12 months ago.

I think this is his second crack at qualification, though I accept he was severely handicapped in the first. But we really had something to play for against Russia & Switzerland and we failed miserably. And regardless of what the Joe Duffys & Marian Finucanes of this world say, Kerr did NOT "perform miracles" to get us back into contention last time out. Standard results against Albania & Georgia, good luck and our opponents dropping points along the way got us back into contention.

But, despite my criticisms of him, I too think we have a good man at the helm. I certainly want to think it. And I also think Chris Hughton's CV would suggest he's a capable deputy. They've come up a steep learning curve to get this far & hopefully they'll put the experience to use. Hopefully the players will give him a hand this time though as they were equally culpable in the Israel games.

[Fergie's Son]

Have to agree, this is a good debate with some good points on both sides. If I may weigh in a little...

To put it bluntly, I am nervous. We were a little lucky in Paris. A repeat viewing of that game suggests that the French were the better team. Henry looked like he was on iceskates he was that smooth. I can't see us stopping the French from scoring so I think we have to take the game to them. Play balls to the wing, harass them at every opportunity and generally make it difficult for them to focus. The tighter Lansdowne pitch should help as should the crowd and perhaps even the weather.

This will not be a game for the faint hearted. We have the skill and we have the passion. If we can marry the two then I think we can get a result against them.

[Stuttgart88]

and have a little bit of luck (that I think we have sadly lacked so far)

On reflection:

Bad Luck:
Conceding an injury time equaliser
Bad refereeing in Dublin
Freakish goalkeeping against Israel
Very bad offside calls in Basle (at least two)
O'Shea's miss in Paris
Barthez' elbow on O'Brien going unnoticed
Robbie's injury against Israel

Good Luck:
Surviving Basle without defeat
Not conceding earlier against Israel away (I remember one appalling miss from appalling marking)
Not conceding in Paris when we left Gallas completely unmarked from a corner
Not conceding in Faroes when we left some fisherman completely unmarked from a corner (and at 0-0 too)
Most of the other results in the group

[thejollyrodger]

I think we can and will beat France but it mightnt be pretty. It might resemble something like the second half against Israel at home.

France defintely have some great names but I cant see them controlling the game. Zidane said he wanted to show his best ever performance in Euro 2004 because he said he was getting on. Well I didnt rate him at that tournament. Only a stupid free kick and a stupid goalkeeper cost England that game.

Were going to be all over France, the crowd will be screaming their lungs out and we have a better team than against the Dutch. Plus this match suits the Irish mentality than say Israel. We play our best football against good teams.

We do have a few worries at the back, and if we pick up some injuries on the day it will mean it will be all very close.

9th of June, 2006, Olympiastadion, Berlin. Destiny awaits!

Is that date correct ?? maybe it should be July or something like that ?

[wallis]

Fergies Son - Im sort of with you on your way of thinking about getting the ball wide. Ive already mentioned the idea of 4-5-1 mainly because the threat with the french is in the midfield and if we can snub that out and get it to Reid and Duff we can cause some real problems. Id rather the ball went out wide as much as possible and we lose it in those positions than giving it away in the centre where the danger is. I just have this feeling that with ZZ playing the French are going to be looking for him with every pass and it could backfire if he doesnt perform - or rather , we dont let him perform.

Stutgart - yes, I see what you mean by the 'second qualification' thing. BK was forced to go away from home for the win and we got picked off (swiss). We were just downright poor against Russia.

Is this the first time in the group stage that we have everyone fit ?

Do you think that Roy Keane has been looking at this fixture since the draw and gearing his whole summer pre-season towards it ? (not playing so much for Man U on their tours, rested in the CL etc)

Terry - dont jinx it by mentioning last minute Zidane freekicks !! I live in england and after the amount of stick I gave all my friends after that Euro2004 match I would have to move house if it happened to us

[Fergie's Son]

Do I think Keane will be geared up for this? Allow me to respond with reference to an incident in Sunday's game between MU and Newcastle.

The teams were lining out and Newcastle were already in the tunnel. Keane led MU into the tunnel at a jogging pace. He walked by Stephen Carr with a big grin on his face and slapped him on the back. He then went to the top of the tunnel to stand next to Alan Shearer. The smile just vanished. Keane's face went from happy to "I may kill and eat you". You could almost feel the temperature dropping.

Yes, I think Keane will be up for it!

Viera, Zidane, Makalele...let them all come!

[Paulie]

Is that date correct ?? maybe it should be July or something like that ?

He's referring to the opening game which is being played on Friday June 9th.

[eirebhoy]

Should have tried the whole confidence thing when we had a four on two situation in Israel when we were just 1 up and decided to take the ball back into our own half. I'm not enjoying listening to Kerr right now..

It was the players that wouldn't create the chances, Kerr said he was disappointed with this. This is honestly the first time I've seen an Ireland manager get blamed for every poor performance we have had. FFS, we have a population of 4m.

[onenilgameover]

It was the players that wouldn't create the chances, Kerr said he was disappointed with this. This is honestly the first time I've seen an Ireland manager get blamed for every poor performance we have had. FFS, we have a population of 4m.

Look if you watch the match again...its late into the 2nd half and Israel are causing us problems and throwing people forward. We break and move forward. There's a Four on Two situation (RMK in possession) and we could have killed the game but kerr comes flying off the bench hands flying, gesturing to bring the ball back into our half. That will be my over-riding memory if this is a failed campaign. Nothing at all to do with the players or are size of country.

[onenilgameover]

Is that date correct ?? maybe it should be July or something like that ?

Mixed up with the months.It starts on the 9th of June, Munchen ends July 9th, Olympiastadion, Berlin.

[eirebhoy]

Look if you watch the match again...its late into the half and Israel are causing us problems and throwing people forward. We break and move forward. There's a Four on Two situation (RMK in possession) and we could have killed the game but kerr comes flying off the bench hands flying, gesturing to bring the ball back into our half.

seriously? I'd love to watch the match again just to see that. I remember Keane was going up the right wing, could have crossed but passed it back. This is the first time I've hear this, surely there would be uproar over that incident alone. I really, really want to see the incident as if what you said is true my opinion of him will have changed completely. Any match reports on the game with this mentioned even?

Roy: “In saying that, we should still have killed the game off. We could have done more in the second half in terms of possession and testing their goalkeeper."

Kerr: “We didn’t create a whole lot, and could have been more incisive going forward"

Kav: "it certainly wasn't a conscious effort on the lads to sit back and defend deep"