I think you would have to spend a few hours running through deep scenarios on an excel sheet there will be loads of them
Barring choking results Pats/Derry should be ok for Europe. No question now that Dundalk vs Bohs game on Friday is going to be massive for 4th spot. Dundalk realistically have to win, if Bohs win and then they draw against Cork that could still see Shels pip them to 4th and then Bohs are dependent on winning the cup for Europe. With Shels I still can't be convinced we will definitely secure 6 points in our final two games against UCD and Drogheda especially up in United Park that final night will be a tough game, from our perspective we need Dundalk and Bohs to draw or Dundalk to win next week to keep things alive
The other thing that could come into play is goal difference, all very tight currently between Bohs (11), Shels (14) and Dundalk (9) Shels will be the happier of the 3 with that position if it comes into play which it could do in the scenario that - Dundalk beat Bohs, Shels beat UCD, Shels draw against Drogheda
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