Palestinian Israeli Conflict.

[Neish]

Ceasefire deal agreed. Hamas to release all reaming hostages in next few days whilst Israel to release both militant prisoners and civilian hostages also to pull out of Gaza City but remain stationed in Palestinian territory

Sounds great in principle just remains to bee seen if both parties hold up their sides of the bargain

[pineapple stu]

Hmmm. I mean, a ceasefire is good news obviously - but do we now quietly forget the reality of genocide? Shake hands, all better again, until the next time?

[Razors left peg]

Its hard to imagine that Netanyahu will all of a sudden agree to a Palestinian State so Im skeptical that this is anything meaningful

[SkStu]

they'll get their hostages back, Hamas will have a load of prisoners released, Israel will retreat, the "war" will end, the process will break down and then, at some point probably soon, the "terrorism meets genocide" will start again.

[culloty82]

If Israel were actually serious about creating a genuinely popular Palestinian alternative to Hamas, then they would release Marwan Barghouti, who has been in Israeli jails for over twenty years, but given their priority is to weaken the political leadership and annex the West Bank by degrees, that won't be happening:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marwan_Barghouti

[pineapple stu]

Bizarrely, Austria are now saying they won't host the Eurovision next year if Israel are banned.

I presume the UEFA vote on them is now quietly shelved. It appears Eurovision is the most likely place for sanctions against them. Which kind of sums up the world's approach to this.

[Nesta99]

When various bans started to gain traction there did seem to be a backing off by Netanyahu, he needs the Israeli people to at the very least stay pretty quiet and this was turning on him. The world will back off calls for bans and sanctions now and in the short term the conduct of Netanyahu and the IDF will just not be spoken about. It will be up to history to record that the Israeli state actors were responsible for a genocide and to express the irony.

It will take time to play out obviousl but seeing whether Hamas is viable as a paramilitary now will determine the sustainability of this process. I dont think they expected such a response to October 7th, they have been all but eliminated. Their support from Iran has been significanly undermined and allies in Lebanon and Yemen acted with token support when I think Hamas expected an all out response. The West Bank has been very very quiet. In this regard the Israelis have succeded and frightened the fook out of would be active (para)milititary opponents.

Has this all fed Hamas ranks with angry next gen Palestinians, or are the average Palestinians angry with Hamas for disregarding them, using them as human shields, and the Israelis just ddnt care about innocent civilians. Can a Palestinian Authority type elected group thrive by marginalising hardline groups like Hamas in fear of a future repeat? I think its possible, that Hamas have agreed already to this 20 point plan as a starting point, already allowing some aspects to apply - 'negotiating' some points like demilitarisation is a charade of still having capability which they dont. They could fight a limited insurgency but not a confontational urban conflict that they thought they could as it would require Israeli restraint from causing major collateral casualties which didnt happen this time.

Netanyahu is distancing himself from semantics of the 20 points like issues of statehood. But there is a potential mechanism included and he will be long gone, as will many of ourselves, by the time such conditions exists that this could be progressed. But he too seems to have been reigned in, by what or whom? Trump, well that pains me a bit but maybe credit where its due. Knowing that the Israeli people wre on edge under the weight of growing international condemnation, you cant ignore multiple countries recognising Palestinian statehood, a true fear for Israeli, it wasnt little Ireland but international powers that at the very least would make a hole in finances if boycotts were next step.

Israeli have 'won', at enormous cost of life, and sadly for now people are going to see a cessation as a success to political pressure. At least hostages will be released which is a great relief to all. Nobody is going to end up in the Hague, things will just carry on, Hamas is for now smashed. We will see how a rebuild of Gaza goes and whether the people will risk further Hamas support. There will be a power vacuum there so who knows what will fill it, an Israeli well funded proxy is likely.

[SkStu]

I hope he gets pulled in by ICC at some point. I still think he might.