Bird Flu

**macdermesser** · 19/08/2005, 12:37 PM

nothing to do with 'er indoors ...

don't know if anyone else has been following this story at all ... and I don't know what sort of coverage its getting back home, or if it can displace important items like Big Brother or Michale Jackson from the headlines.. but read this hairy article this morning... more depressing news after "What is the world coming to?" by Roo69

Is the Dept. of Health in ireland taking any measures to prepare for this? Going on previous history, e.g. the emergency plan for a nuclear accident in Sellafield, I would not hold my breath.

Scare-mongering? Unnecessary worrying? Or something to be genuinely worried about?

" The new US Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the Associated Press in early August that an influenza pandemic was now an "absolute certainty", echoing repeated warnings from the WHO that it was "inevitable". Likewise, Science magazine observed that expert opinion held the odds of a global outbreak as "100%".

In the same grim spirit, the British media revealed that officials were scouring the country for suitable sites for mass mortuaries, based on official fears that avian flu could kill as many as 700,000 Britons."

Article

W.H.O. Update

**Troy.McClure** · 21/08/2005, 4:58 PM

From my masters, our lecturers have assured us many times that this is going to wipe out millions of people, prob mainly in Asia as thats where it will break out first. AFIK richer countries are stocking up vacines already. Thankfully it has not spread human to human yet, but given the crisis surrounding SARS, I think that there's going to be a huge panic when it kicks off. Sorry for the bad news

**Poor Student** · 21/08/2005, 5:07 PM

I saw a report saying it had spread to Russia but then there's a tad difference between Kaliningrad and Vladivostock. Not that the report mentioned.

**CollegeTillIDie** · 21/08/2005, 5:36 PM

Originally Posted by Poor Student

I saw a report saying it had spread to Russia but then there's a tad difference between Kaliningrad and Vladivostock. Not that the report mentioned.

The World is overpopulated.... and these things break out from time to time to keep us humans in check......

**Poor Student** · 21/08/2005, 6:44 PM

Originally Posted by CollegeTillIDie

The World is overpopulated....

Is it though? At the risk of sounding left wing/communist is it not more about an horrendus distribution of rescources on a global wide scale than overpopulation?

Troy is there a rough scale when this is supposed to go pandemic? Are we talking months or years? Damn, all the things I've read about this sound frightening. Some probability studies for chances of pandemic have come out at 100%.

**Troy.McClure** · 21/08/2005, 6:57 PM

At a guess Id say within 5 years as it seems to be spreading from bird to human with increasing regularity. When the virus mutates to spread from human to human, the $hit will hit the fan then! Asia first, rest of the world second, just like SARS. Will be over within 2 years though (although that will be too late for many old/young/HIV AIDS +)

**Poor Student** · 21/08/2005, 6:59 PM

Originally Posted by Troy.McClure

At a guess Id say within 5 years as it seems to be spreading from bird to human with increasing regularity. When the virus mutates to spread from human to human, the $hit will hit the fan then! Asia first, rest of the world second, just like SARS. Will be over within 2 years though (although that will be too late for many old/young/HIV AIDS +)

What exactly causes a pandemic to end? Can you really legislate for one with a vaccine or does mutation not render one useless? I imagine a pandemic would involve multiple strains of the disease?

**Troy.McClure** · 21/08/2005, 7:07 PM

Originally Posted by Poor Student

What exactly causes a pandemic to end? Can you really legislate for one with a vaccine or does mutation not render one useless? I imagine a pandemic would involve multiple strains of the disease?

AFIK (and its not a huge amount) currently 2 strains are being used to develop vaccines. A pandemic would end by natural development of the human immune system and use of vaccines. Viruses mutate all the time, but that doesnt necessarily mean that a vaccine would become useless, it depends on where the vaccine targets (maybe TicTok can answer more

) I dont think that multiple strains would necessarily be required for a large scale outbreak, one new one would do the job just fine

**Poor Student** · 21/08/2005, 7:12 PM

So in your semi-professional opinion should one be crapping themselves?

**liam88** · 21/08/2005, 10:54 PM

I'm dead worried about this....though SARS never really hit the UK....but 700 000 Britons to die!!!

Next boat to Pitcairn for me!!

**Dyl10** · 21/08/2005, 11:29 PM

Next ****in rocket to the moon! at leat theres no pigeons there

**Troy.McClure** · 22/08/2005, 3:53 PM

Originally Posted by Poor Student

So in your semi-professional opinion should one be crapping themselves?

Not particularily really. Ya loads will prob die, but most of that will be in Asia where human contact with chickens is very close (helping flu transfer) and health systems are poor compared to western countries. If you're in Europe youre not in huge risk IMO unless you are v young or old, immune suppressed (HIV AIDS, organ transfer) or in close contact with asian communities (well, maybe). Dont bother worrying about it, theres not much you can do right now

**CollegeTillIDie** · 23/08/2005, 8:09 PM

Originally Posted by liam88

I'm dead worried about this....though SARS never really hit the UK....but 700 000 Britons to die!!!

Next boat to Pitcairn for me!!

What part of the country will they be living in?

**macdermesser** · 30/08/2005, 9:00 AM

Anyone read this at the weekend?

here

Might be an idea to stock up on Tamiflu that apparently will protect you from the bird flu ...although not sure if it will help if this thing mutates.

Also read that the first case has been reported in Finland.

If this shot is going to save lives, then why not give it to the people most at risk i.e. old people and children.