Couldn't wait any longer to see the return of what is annually my favorite thread.
Larne clinching the league up north has meant that Shamrock Rovers are now guaranteed to be seeded in CLQ1. Looks like there will be some strong outfits in the other side of the draw, Hacken of Sweden are already there for example.
If you haven't visited before I recommend spending some time on Bert's website to learn everything there is to know about seeding and the co-efficient calculations; https://kassiesa.net/uefa/index.html
Dundalk look set to be seeded for the first 3 rounds in the ECL should they manage to make it. Pats and Derry will be unseeded from the outset.
Been keeping an eye on that excellent site for the past month or so, is there a possibility for Derry to go into the second round of the ECL? Ireland is ranked 40th, with 39th's (and aboves) cup winners going into the ECL second round.
Last season, it was 41th and above.
Is it a case of waiting to see who wins this year's CL/EL/ECL, to see if the slots for the winners for those competitions are freed up by the winners already qualifying via their domestic competition?
One interesting thing on next year's European runs I hadn't realised - the new Swiss format extended group stage for the CL applies down the line too.
So if an LoI team can get into the EL groups, it's eight games, not six. And there's four extra teams getting to the Europa and the Conference League groups, which can't hurt. The Conference League will remain just six games in the group stage though
Not yet sure how the Swiss system will work, but I think it means the end of group-stage draws - but do clubs get a fortnight's (or less) notice of their next opponents based on their previous round result? That's what it sounds like, but it seems impractical
With a coefficient of 8.5 we will def be seeded in 2 rounds, that's not in question, R3 (if we make it past R1 and 2 of course !) not fully sure seeding, its probable but not confirmed, still need to see a good few leagues finishing before, but good chance.Originally Posted by yurt
Obviously on current form / constant injuries wouldn't be holding out too much hope, but lets say any club with 8.5 and if they do get to R3, win that and its the play off, doors then open for a group stage and 3m, but that's winning through 4 rounds, 8 games, that's a lot of football for things to go wrong and to have off days plus bigger clubs will enter the fray in R3 and might even be in the unseeded side, Vitesse Arnhem were that animal in 2021.
That said the high coefficient will help as means starting out v Wales / Andora / Gibraltar etc.
#DundalkFC - First Irish club to win an away game in Europe (1963), first Irish club to win points in a group stage in Europe (2016).
From playing football manager....
I think they split sides into 4 pots and you get drawn against 2 teams in each pot - so in theory everyone plays 2 of the strongest, 2 of the weakest and 4 in the middle..... Am sure there will be some 'draws of death' based on the seedings and draw.
So that means you only play each team once then?
The seedings for UCL Q1 are pretty much set now. Just a matter of seeing who come through the prelim round and who wins in Armenia and Albania. Potential opponents are:
- Lincoln Red Imps
- KI Klaksvik
- CL-PR *p
- Dinamo Tbilisi
- Raków Czestochowa
- Aris Limassol
- BK Häcken
- Farul Constanta
- CH Alb 4.000 - 5.000
- Valmieras FK
- FC Ballkani
- Larne FC
- CH Arm
- Hamrun Spartans
- Swift Hesperange
- FC Struga
The way the seeding are weighted towards consistent champions means that there are some strong teams in the unseeded side. I would split the potential opponents into 3 groups.
Good: Struga, Hamrun, Larne, Albanians, Tbilisi, Klaksvik, LRI, prelim qualifiers x2.
Bad: Armenians, Ballkani and Valmieras.
Ugly: Rakow, Limassol, Hacken and Farul.
As always with these things it's the luck of the draw. Rovers have got a relatively soft ride with draws the past couple seasons so hopefully that will continue. They've put themselves in a good position to get a winnable tie.
This tie is by far the most important from an LOI co-efficient POV. Getting through guarantees Rovers an additional 4 games via EL route. Losing means they are straight into ECL qualification with no further safety nets after a loss.
Dundalk are def seeded in R1, and also will be R2 if we make it, below is the list we can draw, in bold is yet to be seeded and of course the other LOI clubs we can't draw but def unseeded.
Would love to go to Gibraltar to the magnificently names Brunos Magpies, also closer to home Penybont FC who are based in Brigend mid way between Swansea and Cardiff would be fun too, easy travel.
NI Clubs would be a drag, we only ever drew one and that was a disaster, infamous game v Linfield in 1979 with the 'away' leg played in Netherlands.
Georgia (country) Dinamo Batumi
Andorra Inter Club d'Escaldes
Northern Ireland Crusaders
Estonia Paide Linnameeskond
Georgia (country) Torpedo Kutaisi
Slovakia Winners of 2022–23 Slovak First Football League play-off
Moldova Runners-up of 2022–23 Moldovan Super Liga
Bosnia and Herzegovina Fourth place of 2022–23 Premier League of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Armenia Winners of 2022–23 Armenian Cup
Albania Winners of 2022–23 Albanian Cup
Albania Runners-up of 2022–23 Kategoria Superiore
Estonia Winners of 2022–23 Estonian Cup
San Marino Winners of 2022–23 Coppa Titano
Iceland Víkingur Reykjavík
Republic of Ireland St Patrick's Athletic
Faroe Islands Víkingur
Republic of Ireland Derry City
North Macedonia Makedonija
Lithuania Panev?žys
Finland Honka
Malta Balzan
Moldova Zimbru Chi?in?u
Kosovo Gjilani
Finland Haka
Georgia (country) Dila Gori
Malta Birkirkara
Northern Ireland Glentoran
Lithuania Hegelmann
Belarus Isloch Minsk Raion
Iceland KA
Albania Egnatia
Wales Penybont
Wales Haverfordwest County
Gibraltar Bruno's Magpies
San Marino Cosmos
Montenegro Winners of 2022–23 Montenegrin Cup
Last edited by oriel; 23/05/2023 at 8:22 PM.
#DundalkFC - First Irish club to win an away game in Europe (1963), first Irish club to win points in a group stage in Europe (2016).
I would be thinking by far the two to avoid there for Rovers and probably in order would be Raków Czestochowa (first time Polish Champions 2022/23) and then Hacken - Swedish cup winners 2023 and champions from 2022, both fall into the 'no mugs' category, Limassol too would be a very tough outcome.
#DundalkFC - First Irish club to win an away game in Europe (1963), first Irish club to win points in a group stage in Europe (2016).
If I read the Country coefficients correctly, if we score the same as last year, and everybody else keeps their average, due to us losing a poor year, we might end up in ranked 30th?
Right on the Fai's schedule....
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Considering how tight the league is this year, and how much Rovers won it last, it still must be somewhat fustrating how conservative Rovers were in Europe. Much better chance last year for this Rovers team to finally do put in a Eurpean performance. Rovers will have more reasons this year to focus on league than Europe over last year, considering its a lot tighter. Rovers always had the talent, as shown by their home performances.
Last edited by Kiki Balboa; 24/05/2023 at 10:39 AM.
Ten wins and three draws across the board last year. Hard to see Irish clubs replicate that this year. A lot depends on the draw.
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/collisions - New music. It's not that bad.
https://www.nigelhegarty.bandcamp.com/releases
https://www.facebook.com/54CrewFHFC
Scandalous to think that was included in the FAI's long term plan with absolutely zero mention of how they are going to support us reaching that point.
Should we end up in the top 30 they'll tick that off and chalk it up as a win for the association while at the same time we've still no NT or proper league sponsor and they missed their target of 2023 for the third tier. They are getting a very easy ride just because JD is gone imo
Couple of wins in dead rubbers too - plus of course a million quid's worth of talent has left the league since then. And was there more "easy" draws than might have been expected (in terms of who else was in the pool)?
But let's see how it goes I guess. Dundalk are the obvious weak link, but the others seem to be doing ok. Six wins in seven for Derry, nine wins in 11 for Rovers, even Pat's turning things around a bit.
I'd definitely be worried about Dundalk. Though their seeding will be obviously be a big help to them (or should in theory anyway).
Rovers tend to be pretty steady in Europe, and you'd expect would be again here. A couple of rounds of progress over all would be the minimum expectation. Pats had the good run last year which will hold them in good stead, though will probably need a lucky draw to progress agan now.
I'd be nervous enough about Derry. Apart from that great run 20yrs ago under Stephen Kenny, they've had a fairly mediocre record in Europe for years tbh. Avoiding a tough first round draw will be key to them, as they always seem to underwhelm at this level.
Why a drag? Handy, very cheap away match, with a decent chance of winning.
Qualifying for the group stages of the Conference should be the expectation really from here out for the League winners due the recent changes. LOI teams have a good chance of only having to win against teams ranked below them to qualify. Champions only play other Champions, and considering how many spots there are for Champions across the 3 competitions, its really in our favour. You need to be bounced out of three competitions not to get into it. If that happens, there really wouldn't be any excuses. Thats including if Derry or anyone else win the league for next year.
Bit weird that Dundalk is to be singled out, considering that we will be seeded. You have to remember all the players who are unfit and half-fit playing for us at the moment. They return, we would be a different team.
I think luck of the draw is still huge.
Rovers could draw the Polish or Swedish champions in Rd 1 and would be massive underdogs. Lose and you drop down to the Conference second round which means you have to win 3 rounds in a row to get groups.
On the other hand win the first round with a handy draw , TNS . Imps etc and you have 3 chances with only 1 win required.
I think its probably fair to say that expectations for LOI champs should be to qualify for groups provided they win the first round match or at least get a handy enough draw.
Exactly this.
Our champions could draw the champs of a stronger league with an annual budget of 30-40 mill and its probably curtains after game 1.
Admittedly the chances of drawing a team that strong is only 20-30% so hopefully you’d avoid them most years, but still it will probably happen some years.
I know the intro of the champions route definitely has created more opportunities but expecting a LOI team in the group stages every year is a bit ott.
If I was offered an Irish team into the groups stages one year out of every 2 I’d take the hand off.
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...JJHZbWEiHqbZgw
Live rankings here.
Every second year seems quite reasonable alright. And even that's a great opportunity compared with previously.
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