LOI in Europe 2023

[ontheotherhand]

My take on this in in bold .

Wish I shared your optimism. Avoiding Hacken was great but we'll most likely be playing the Icelandic champions who went out in the 3rd round of the ECL last season and the season beforehand so can win games in Europe. They knocked out Austria Vienna the season before and were beaten in the 3rd round by Aberdeen but managed to score in both ties and only lost both ties by a goal.

It's definitely a winnable tie and I think we should win it, but they'll be looking at the draw favourably as well. They are mid-season and will have 2 CL prelims under their belt as well.

I love Europe but it's absolutely nerve wracking.

[EatYerGreens]

Assume not, but even with draw, it's a big ask. I'd be disappointed not to get past Tórshavn, but KuPS is a different story. They're consistently in Europe, and have been in a playoff spot two of the past three years.

"Candystripes Cope with KuPS in Conference League Cup Competition"

[sbgawa]

My take on this in in bold

Rovers v Prelim 70% - I'd think more 85 - 90%
Derry v HB 75% - Agree
Dundalk v Bruno's 90% - Not sure about that - Prob 65-70% - the heat out there and afternoon KO ?
Pat's v Dudelange 50% - Fancy Pats, but as mentioned since, Lux football club and national team on the rise big time, they had good 2-0 away win v Bosnia & H during week.
.

Jeez Oriel i cant decide whether you are taking the **** or are just beaten down by Dundalks ropey form this season....
Rovers 85-90% to win (probably) against a team that beat Austria Wien and lost by the odd goal to Aberdeen recently but Dundalk are only 65% to 70% to beat a literal pub team .

I reckon the original percentages are right enough but my nerves makes me worry that its the hope that kills me

[Nesta99]

As we all know LoI in Europe is pure elation and total despair. We are all scarred so will try to dampen expectation. Dundalk should of course beat Burno's bunch but there is that chink in the armour, of fear that you become the next Bohs v TNS, Longford, S Rovers etc. To lose would be a sackable offense, not that SO'D would be fired but it would be very damaging for him and the club. There is a bit of the fear of the unknown too. 2nd round should be an expected win also tbh. The rest are fine albeit Pats isnt just so straight forward but they thrive in Europe and against better sides - it wouldnt be a massive shock if they did get knocked out but its unlikely especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

[pineapple stu]

Almost sure with Dundalk v Bruno's Magpies, its a first LOI v GIB also.

Yep, Gibraltar is one. Montenegro is the second, and the Faroes is the third.

LoI has played a Faroese club, but never in the Faroes. The only tie was the one-legged Dundalk v KÍ Klaksvík tie in Lansdowne.

What's left is Kosovo and Georgia (the sixth country on my list was actually Ireland... )

[TonyD]

As we all know LoI in Europe is pure elation and total despair. We are all scarred so will try to dampen expectation. Dundalk should of course beat Burno's bunch but there is that chink in the armour, of fear that you become the next Bohs v TNS, Longford, S Rovers etc. To lose would be a sackable offense, not that SO'D would be fired but it would be very damaging for him and the club. There is a bit of the fear of the unknown too. 2nd round should be an expected win also tbh. The rest are fine albeit Pats isnt just so straight forward but they thrive in Europe and against better sides - it wouldnt be a massive shock if they did get knocked out but its unlikely especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

Just on the away goals. The scrapping of this was to Pats advantage last year. We would have been out against Mura, having drawn 1-1 at home and 0-0 away.

[yurt]

Calm down lads, I know we’ve done ok in recent years but some are getting a bit carried away.

I’d never have any LOI side as a 90% to win any European tie, no matter how lowly ranked the opponent may be. 70-75% absolute tops.

If history has taught us anything about Irish football, it’s the hope/expectation that kills you.

Nothing wrong with some quiet confidence but don’t go OTT.

I meant to expand on my point with the initial percentages that while I make all teams favourites the chances of all 4 progressing at those chances is less the 25%, so a pretty unlikely eventuality still.

Since the introduction of the the ECL and the ECLQ1 being exclusively for the bottom 25 or so leagues or record has been excellent, granted it's only been two years but it suits a league like ours which constantly has different euro participants (i.e unseeded) to not have the big boys in the draw.

Not taking anything for granted but I do think we along with the likes of Finland and the teams to avoid in this first round.

Dundalk have to be bearing the likes of Magpies home and away. They are on par with the Gibraltar national team, Annesley bring the obvious benchmark.

[Knocklyonhoop]

My take on this in in bold .

C’mon. Better chance to qualify vs Icelandic / montengran champs as opposed to a pretty much pub team?

early let’s save face in case we lose bang off that! No way Dundalk shouldn’t be making R3. “Skip” (can’t believe I said that!) surely can’t survive not winning w rounds after that draw?

[Knocklyonhoop]

As we all know LoI in Europe is pure elation and total despair. We are all scarred so will try to dampen expectation. Dundalk should of course beat Burno's bunch but there is that chink in the armour, of fear that you become the next Bohs v TNS, Longford, S Rovers etc. To lose would be a sackable offense, not that SO'D would be fired but it would be very damaging for him and the club. There is a bit of the fear of the unknown too. 2nd round should be an expected win also tbh. The rest are fine albeit Pats isnt just so straight forward but they thrive in Europe and against better sides - it wouldnt be a massive shock if they did get knocked out but its unlikely especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

”Bohs v TNS, Longford S Rovers etc.” .is this Sligo Rovers? They knocked out a Scottish team last year. Why single Bohs v tns? who knocked out Aberdeen around then and good last few yrs?

I think Dundalk could be relegated, finish bottom div1 and a good portion be saying “Skip” is under resourced, not his fault ffs!

[holidaysong]

...especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

One obvious example of the away goals rule benefiting the LOI was in 2016. It meant Dundalk progressed past FH in our first tie. Maybe the group stage journey would never have been, had it gone to penalties instead.

[2 Year Contract]

Just on the away goals. The scrapping of this was to Pats advantage last year. We would have been out against Mura, having drawn 1-1 at home and 0-0 away.

I don’t think it can be put as simply as that. Pats went into the second leg knowing they didn’t need to go all out attack in need of a goal in normal time and the game plan would’ve taken the new rules into account

[TonyD]

I don’t think it can be put as simply as that. Pats went into the second leg knowing they didn’t need to go all out attack in need of a goal in normal time and the game plan would’ve taken the new rules into account

Well, maybe. And of course there is no way of knowing, but on the face of the results we’d have gone out in the past.

[pineapple stu]

One obvious example of the away goals rule benefiting the LOI was in 2016. It meant Dundalk progressed past FH in our first tie. Maybe the group stage journey would never have been, had it gone to penalties instead.

*Cough*My avatar!*cough*

[Nesta99]

”Bohs v TNS, Longford S Rovers etc.” .is this Sligo Rovers? They knocked out a Scottish team last year. Why single Bohs v tns? who knocked out Aberdeen around then and good last few yrs?

I think Dundalk could be relegated, finish bottom div1 and a good portion be saying “Skip” is under resourced, not his fault ffs!

Did you miss the 'pure elation to total despair' comment? Sligo were beaten by an Albanian side thrying to throw the fixture (Total despair) and beat Motherwell (pure elation). Bohs beat Aberdeen (I was in Tolka Park that night), could have knocked out Kaiserslautern after. lost to 4-0 to TNS a decade later not around then, TNS considerably weaker than they would be now, their 2nd ever win in Europe and still a poor result. Shels losing to Hibs Malta (David Crawleys error) but Scared Deportivo. just for you Knocklyonhoop Flora was an awful result but I even jumped when O'Donnell put you through the against Partizan and Im sure taking the lead in White Hart Line was some moment for Rovers fans. I dont get the relevance of the last sentence - football is all about speculation, opinion, discussion, rivalry. fears, the highs and lows, especially in LoI - its like an addiction or wheres the point!? ffs

[Nesta99]

I don’t think it can be put as simply as that. Pats went into the second leg knowing they didn’t need to go all out attack in need of a goal in normal time and the game plan would’ve taken the new rules into account

Well, maybe. And of course there is no way of knowing, but on the face of the results we’d have gone out in the past.

Hence the perception of the impact of the away goal change. It took a fear factor out of the mix and teams sitting in to not concede which is always risky especially playig higher caliber opposition. Now with increased number of teams and competitions that sides can play in especially in the champions pathway sides can have a go and pull off a surprise result. It will be interesting to see how Rovers approach games this year as they gave too much respect to sides previously and when they had nothing to lose like v Slovan or Ludogorats and went at them they showed they could compete and could have won ties.

[oriel]

I meant to expand on my point with the initial percentages that while I make all teams favourites the chances of all 4 progressing at those chances is less the 25%, so a pretty unlikely eventuality still.

Since the introduction of the the ECL and the ECLQ1 being exclusively for the bottom 25 or so leagues or record has been excellent, granted it's only been two years but it suits a league like ours which constantly has different euro participants (i.e unseeded) to not have the big boys in the draw.

Not taking anything for granted but I do think we along with the likes of Finland and the teams to avoid in this first round.

Dundalk have to be bearing the likes of Magpies home and away. They are on par with the Gibraltar national team, Annesley bring the obvious benchmark.

I'm fully expecting to go through, but they will prob ko at 3pm in Gibraltar, the heat will be a huge factor, wont make it easy there but we should advance.

[oriel]

Jeez Oriel i cant decide whether you are taking the **** or are just beaten down by Dundalks ropey form this season....
Rovers 85-90% to win (probably) against a team that beat Austria Wien and lost by the odd goal to Aberdeen recently but Dundalk are only 65% to 70% to beat a literal pub team .

I reckon the original percentages are right enough but my nerves makes me worry that its the hope that kills me

No easy games these days SB, that said for this year I am fully expecting all 4 LOI to go through, will let you know about pub team standard after the away game first leg in probable 28c heat!

That said (and I looked it up) we have won 19 games in total in Europe from 90 matches, so should really be looking to add 2 more here, plus more importantly the club coefficient for wins, as draw almost count for nothing.

[yurt]

So should really be looking to add 2 more here, plus more importantly the club coefficient for wins, as draw almost count for nothing.

The club co-efficient is only calculated on what round you get to. So 2 wins vs. going through on pens won't actually make any difference to Dundalk's co-efficient.

It's only the country co-efficient which is calculated of wins and draws. 1 point for a win, 0.5 for a draw. Then total points divided by teams, in our case 4.

After the first round of fixtures I reckon we could be on 1.625* and well on our way to what I consider to be the new base target of 3.000 in the new format and us getting the benefit of competing in the first round.

*(Dundalk 2W, Derry 1W1D, Pats 1W1D, Rovers 1W1D = 6.5/4 = 1.625)

[oriel]

There is also a club and country coefficient though, and clubs are re-calculated every 5 years or on a 5 year cycle.

Dundalk currently on 8.5 meant we avoided big clubs in 2 rounds (Club Brugge an FC Twentee on same side of mini grouping R2 and avoided), surely the more wins you can rack up and advance through rounds will add to the club coefficient.

[holidaysong]

The nature of progression does not affect the club coefficient though. i.e. getting two wins in a tie is the same as two draws and advancing on penalties. It's simply the round you get to that is the determining factor.

The individual match results are what determines the country coefficient.