QuoteInteresting that Greece are ahead of us on Elo rankings
If matches were decided by ELO rankings then we'd probably never qualify for anything. What was the difference in ELO rankings between Saudi Arabia and Argentina at the World Cup? Japan and Germany?Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Again, we've been beaten in qualification groups 4 times at home since 2005. We are not easy to beat. And we've played some very good teams. I don't think we've ever gone into a home match without considering we could get a draw at least.
Interesting that Greece are ahead of us on Elo rankings
Not really. Results have been very bad for Ireland the past few years so many teams have moved past us.
I'm not sure you understand how Elo works. A difference of 400 points - which is what we have here - means we should score 10% over a set period of games (eg we might win one in ten, or draw one in five). 300 points (ie us v Portugal) means we should score 17% (eg one win in six, or one draw in three).
You don't undermine that argument by simply picking the one win in ten and saying it's defeatist to talk about the 9 chances of defeat, which is what you're trying to do. There's actually quite a strong correlation between Elo and match results.
Do those ELO figures take home advantage into account? Seems like they have limited meaning if they don't.
Keane O'Shea Given Best Long Cox
Not that I don't understand, I don't care how they work. I'm saying with our 4 defeats in qualifiers at home in 18 years, it's not impossible to get a draw against France. ELO rankings never scored a goal.
Worth mentioning that we've only won 2 qualifying games out of 19 against first/second seeds at home in those 18 years (Germany, Bosnia 2015).
Pretty sure they do.
So... 1-1 draw it is then
1. Bazunu/Kelleher
2. Doherty
3. O’Shea
4. Egan
5. Collins
6. McClean
7. Cullen
8. Molumby
9. Knight/Smallbone/Sykes/McGrath
10. Ferguson
11. Obafemi/Parrott
I think I’d be confident in knowing for sure 8 of my starting 11 against France, probably even 9.
X??Doherty
O’Shea
Egan
Collins
McClean
?Cullen
Molumby
X??Ferguson ?X
Against Latvia, I’d plan to play two different formations. I’d play the first half in a 5-3-2 and the second half in a 4-3-3. What we’ve found is that against weaker sides - once we score, 5-3-2 is successful but when teams sit deep, and we don’t score early, we can struggle to break them down. So I think going forward, being able to play both systems would help avoid most of those calamity results or near misses.
GK: I’d start with Kelleher in goal for the Latvia game. I’d very likely start Bazunu for the France game but I’d make that call after the Latvia game was over. If for some reason, Kelleher managed to perform so well that it changed my opinion. Don’t see it as being likely but no harm in having the info
RWB: Doherty - he probably needs minutes against Latvia, but not too many. He struggles with fitness when playing 2 games in a short space of time, no point on burning him out. So I’d play him and switch him for Coleman after 55 mins. I don’t fancy Mbappe taking on Coleman and the pace differential, so I think Doc is the only option. I’d play 5 at the back and try have your wing back and your right sided centre half (O’Shea) double up on Mbappe. Same on the other side with Coman or Kolo Muani or whoever will be playing right wing. Then just hope that the space that their fullbacks get at a result doesn’t cost us too much. But generally the real danger France have comes from the 3 behind Giroud - the two wingers and Griezmann.
RCB - O’Shea - I’d start Omobamidele against Latvia to give him minutes and to see how he looks after the injury but I think O’Shea is the starter for the France game. Coleman is playing really well of late and is an option but I do think he’s a better right back than a right wing back or right centre half.
CB - Egan - will probably captain the side. I’d start him against Latvia and take him off after 45 and bring on a winger and move to a back 4. He doesn’t need the minutes particularly.
LCB - Collins - get him 90 mins against Latvia and again against France.
LWB - McClean. I haven’t seen a huge amount of O’Dowda at LWB but I’d trust McClean a bit more defensively and that he’d be a bit more fight about him which we’ll probably need against the french. I’d start O’Dowda against the Latvians and bring on McClean at the same time as Coleman, in part because McClean is probably better at left back.
RCM - Molumby would start for me against France. It’s between him and Hendrick and I’d value the extra bite, energy and athleticism he provides. Hendrick probably to come on when Molumby is at risk of getting a second yellow. ??CM - Cullen. I’d wrap him in cotton wool for the Latvia game given his current workload and his lack of a viable replacement. I’d start Smallbone along with Hendrick in the Latvia game.
LCM - the more attacking midfielder - i’d most likely start Knight for the france game - and probably Sykes for the Latvia game - but i’m undecided. All of Knight, Smallbone, Sykes, McGrath and Browne offer different qualities. Browne would be the most conservative (aeriel ability, aggression and goal threat) and probably the only one I’d be against. McGrath has been widely slated here but his performances for Ireland have been good. And he has qualities as a composed carrier of the ball, linking midfield and attack, with more vision than any of the other midfielders (a low bar).
ST - Ferguson starts for me. I’d give him 70 minutes against Latvia (before being replaced by Obafemi) and I’d start him again against France. Hard to know who is his best partner. I liked the Obafemi-Parrott pairing, I felt they had great understanding - but you can’t ignore Evan. Only problem is that you’ve got to create a partnership on the fly. ??ST - I’d start Parrott against Latvia and give him 45 minutes before bringing on Ogbene for the 4-3-3 switch. So basically game begins with a Ferguson-Parrott pair, before turning into a Ogbene-Ferguson-Johnston front 3 with Obafemi replacing Ferguson for the last 20. Obafemi needs minutes but I’d be more afraid of him picking up a knock against Latvia. He has a terrible knack of getting injured on the first game of an international window. I kinda fear Kenny might see Keane as the ideal partner for Ferguson. I hope not - but I can imagine Keane sitting deeper is something that might appeal to Kenny, the number 10 to Ferguson’s no. 9. Anyway, i’d make a call between Parrott and Obafemi after the Latvia game, seeing how they both looked.
So it’d end up with:
- Latvia First half:
Kelleher
Doherty
Omobamidele
Egan
Collins
O’Dowda
Hendrick
Smallbone
Sykes or McGrath
Parrott
Ferguson
Latvia Second half:
Kelleher
Coleman (after 55)
Omobamidele
Collins
McClean (after 55)
Same midfield with Knight coming in after 70
Ogbene
Ferguson (replaced by Obafemi after 70
Johnston
France:
Bazunu/Kelleher
Doherty
O’Shea
Egan
Collins
McClean
Cullen
Molumby
Knight/Sykes/McGrath
Parrott/Obafemi
Ferguson
Thanks for your honesty at least; means I can safely dismiss your comments as ignorance so.
They do. I don't think it needs to though - Elo ratings to rank chess players don't differentiate between playing as white or black for example. Effectively it'll balance out over time. Probably it was added in due to the relatively low amount of international games a country plays each year.
A good example of the detailed posts that can make this site a good read!
Two comments on the above - would we not be better starting 4-3-3 against Latvia? If we struggle to break smaller teams down with 5-3-2 (and we clearly struggle for some reason), would we not try a more attacking system from the start? I don't think I want to watch another game we should win but where for an hour we struggle to make any inroads...
Then on Kelleher - I think if he puts in such a good performance against Latvia that you'd promote him to number 1 based on it, we have bigger problems than in nets!
Ferguson and Obafemi seems like a more natural pairing to me than Ferguson and Parrott. Ferguson is good at holding the ball up and Obafemi can exploit those opportunities. Either pairing would have me a bit worried about our ability to press the opposition from the front when they have the ball though. From what I have seen of him playing for Brighton, Ferguson does a bit of pressing and tracking back, but it's not a major part of his game.... he seems to be the type of player that appears to amble around a lot, not looking like he's doing much of anything and then 'suddenly' scores a goal. It makes him very exciting to watch, but makes me wonder whether he needs a partner that's willing to do more chasing up front when the opposition has the ball? Nothing to be said for Ferguson and Ogbene?
What I mean though is, when a poster says we should be heavily beaten by France because we're X number of points behind them in the ELO rankings, is that number taking account of the fact we're playing them at home?
In other words, if we were playing them away, would the points difference be higher? Because, if it wouldn't, the calculation is largely meaningless because it suggests we're equally as likely to lose to France in Dublin as we are in Paris or Marseille. The comparison between black and white in chess is a poor one, because statistically home advantage can be proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game.
Keane O'Shea Given Best Long Cox
White does have the advantage of moving first in chess
Wow, they've discovered a system that can predict a team ranked 3rd will probably beat a team ranked 47th. Amazing, how do they do it? We don't need some ranking system to tell us that a team like France are likely to beat Ireland.
Apart from the 4 qualifier defeats at home in 18 years stat, we've only taken one big beating in that time, against Germany. So a draw isn't out of the question like some say and a thrashing is unlikely going on our history at home. In order to qualify from this group, we need a draw at least.
I think going on form, Coleman might be more deserving of a start. Doherty's move really hasn't gone well. Keeper and 3 centre backs pick themselves. McClean or O'Dowda is a tight one. I think McClean just edges it. Scored again yesterday. Midfield of Cullen and Molumby with one other. Sykes should get his chance to impress v Latvia but so should Smallbone, I'd have him starting v France as of now. Obefami and Ferguson up front.
Bazunu
Coleman
Collins
Egan
O Shea
McClean
Cullen
Molumby
Smallbone
Obefami
Ferguson
That's 4 premier league players, 1 on loan from a premier league team and 3 close to gaining promotion to the premier league. We're not a team of no hopers that some like to portray.
That's hardly fair, you can't dismiss comments/opinions just because that person doesn't put has much significance on a ranking system as you do.
At the end of the day ranking positions change because results regularly happen that go against what statistics or ranking would predict (Did Elo predict the Luxembourg result in Dublin??)
As BOOM said, you don't need a ranking system to know that Ireland are unlikely to get a result against France. As long as we play a good disciplined game we can make it difficult for France even if we do lose the game
Except it's eight.
France 05 and 09, Russia 10, Germany 12, Sweden 13, Serbia and Denmark 17, and Luxembourg 21. Unless you're discounting playoffs, but that still makes six.
For comparison, we'd only lost three in the previous eighteen years. (Spain 93, Austria 95, Switzerland 02)
Also, the 5-1 against Denmark was a pretty big beating.
Last edited by Supreme feet; 19/03/2023 at 12:21 PM.
It does take home advantage into account. You can see that in the list of upcoming matches and the likelihood of a win here - so it gives Tahiti a better chance of beating New Caledonia tomorrow despite being lower-rated - reason being they're at home.
First-move advantage in chess is very similar to home advantage in football; it's statistically proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game (white scores about 55% and black scores 45%).
I'm not dismissing his comments because he doesn't agree with the rating system; I'm dismissing them because he doesn't attempt to engage in it and still says that Kenny needs a result against France and stuff like that or that we drew in 2009 so we can draw again (a bizarre comparison seeing as our squad is much worse than 2009), or tries to say that there's much of a muchness between third and fifth; that sort of stuff. Elo is pretty well-respected as a measuring system and has even been incorporated into the FIFA rankings.
Elo doesn't predict individual results. What it does do is say that when you play a team 220 points lower at home (Ireland v Luxembourg), you should be winning 80% of the time (or whatever it is). And it can happen that the lower-rated team win too. If those results start exceeding chance, then something's going wrong (and indeed by the time of that Luxembourg result, we had dropped 100 points in Kenny's first ten games, which is pretty stark)
So it's not about saying France are favourites - we know that. It's about showing by how much they're favourites, and even why the comparison with the Portugal draw (even if they were up for the game in Dublin, which they weren't) isn't all that relevant because our chances of drawing with France are 40% lower.
So yeah, we can make it difficult for them even if we lose - that's fine. But when Boomers says "If we had a competent manager I'd be very confident of a draw at least", for example - well then it really helps to put the task ahead of us in perspective. That's the point of Elo.
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