Republic of Ireland V Latvia - Wednesday, 22nd March 2023 - Friendly

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 5:50 PM

Originally Posted by DCWA

Yes, really.

However I do in general agree with the rest of your post. Whilst expecting nothing France do regularly have slip ups in qualifying and I am hoping they are feeling a bit of post WC fatigue… or something like that…

Put the likely team from 2023 alongside that 09 team. Not as big a gap as you're painting. Fairly even.

**Eirambler** · 17/03/2023, 5:51 PM

Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Euro 2020?

Norway didn't qualify for Euro 2020, their last finals was Euro 2000.

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 5:53 PM

Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Euro 2020?

Were Norway at that?

**elatedscum** · 17/03/2023, 6:14 PM

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Put the likely team from 2023 alongside that 09 team. Not as big a gap as you're painting. Fairly even.

New keeper < Lloris

Kounde/Pavard > Sagna
Upamecano > Gallas (close enough)
Konate > Escude
T Hernandez < Evra (close enough)

Tchoumani > L Diarra
Camavinga > A Diarra

Coman > Anelka (close enough)
Giroud > Gignac
Mbappe > Henry (Thierry was 32, different story 5 years earlier)

Both good teams but not at all even. Escude, Gignac, Alou Diarra - they wouldn’t get anywhere close to the current squad, let alone the first team

**osarusan** · 17/03/2023, 6:18 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

Ive made the same point a few times, i'll give it one more go

The draw is happening:
Scenario 1 (Ireland in 3rd pot): Hungary, Israel, Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
Scenario 2 (Ireland in 2nd pot): Holland, Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Gibraltar

Which of these would you prefer for qualification purposes? And which of these scenarios would be a matter of credit to the manager v. luck of the draw?

How can a manager get credit or blame for the luck of the draw.

But I don't really see what the point is that you are making here.

You can get lucky draws or unlucky draws, but dropping down a seed is only bad news. The unlucky draws get more unlucky.

Kenny shares the responsibility for us dropping down a seed and being expoed to more unlucky draws.

**SkStu** · 17/03/2023, 6:29 PM

Originally Posted by osarusan

How can a manager get credit or blame for the luck of the draw.

But I don't really see what the point is that you are making here.

You can get lucky draws or unlucky draws, but dropping down a seed is only bad news. The unlucky draws get more unlucky.

Kenny shares the responsibility for us dropping down a seed and being expoed to more unlucky draws.

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 6:35 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

New keeper < Lloris

Kounde/Pavard > Sagna
Upamecano > Gallas (close enough)
Konate > Escude
T Hernandez < Evra (close enough)

Tchoumani > L Diarra
Camavinga > A Diarra

Coman > Anelka (close enough)
Giroud > Gignac
Mbappe > Henry (Thierry was 32, different story 5 years earlier)

Both good teams but not at all even. Escude, Gignac, Alou Diarra - they wouldn’t get anywhere close to the current squad, let alone the first team

Even your biased view gives it close to 50/50. And you could have Henry ahead of Coman and Anelka ahead of Giroud. So not really a huge gap between them.

**Eirambler** · 17/03/2023, 6:36 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

But, as has already been pointed out, he blew a golden opportunity to get us a higher seeding from a favourable Nations League group. Therefore he's responsible for us being third seeds, which is what led to the horror draw. You can't just leave that bit out because it doesn't suit your argument!

**osarusan** · 17/03/2023, 6:39 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

Nope, you're right and I'm wrong. I got it mixed up with NL relegation.

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 6:39 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

You can call it an unlucky draw if you get a tough draw while second seeds. If you fail to get second seeds by losing to Armenia/coming close to the bottom of your Nations League group, you can't really call it unlucky. Scotland's draw is much better than ours I think you'll agree?

**SkStu** · 17/03/2023, 6:40 PM

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

**tetsujin1979** · 17/03/2023, 6:42 PM

Originally Posted by Eirambler

Norway didn't qualify for Euro 2020, their last finals was Euro 2000.

Sorry, thought you meant Scotland

**Eirambler** · 17/03/2023, 6:48 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

Winning the group or best second placed team would have gotten us a second seeding. Even just the results we got plus beating Ukraine (or more accurately their second team for the most part) at home would have done it. It would have guaranteed a playoff too. The team setup for those first two Nations League games was appalling as well. A massive missed opportunity.

**elatedscum** · 17/03/2023, 7:31 PM

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Even your biased view gives it close to 50/50. And you could have Henry ahead of Coman and Anelka ahead of Giroud. So not really a huge gap between them.

I went off the formation on Wiki with Anelka playing RW, Henry LW etc

**elatedscum** · 17/03/2023, 7:32 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

Pretty much. Ukraine finished 2nd and are 3rd seeds

**tetsujin1979** · 17/03/2023, 7:51 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

I went off the formation on Wiki with Anelka playing RW, Henry LW etc

Anelka had a free role, coming off the right. Was the best player on the pitch in the home leg

**John83** · 18/03/2023, 3:50 AM

Originally Posted by osarusan

This is just silly.

France were a 119th minute world class save away from being world champions. They're a side with quality all over the pitch we can only dream of. They are so superior that they could come to Dublin and win by 3 goals and it still wouldn't automatically be a terrible night for Kenny. There could still be positives in defeat. I'd even say the same about the Dutch, albeit to a lesser extent.

The idea that Kenny needs a good result against France isn't one I'd agree with myself. He needs solid performances against the French and the Dutch.

He needs results against Greece and Gibraltar.

France's elo rating right now is 2082. Ours is 1676. Statistically, us getting a result against France would be comparable to Rawanda or Indonesia getting a result against us. If it happens, Deschamps should be fired. Even in a friendly.

**WexCar.** · 18/03/2023, 7:48 AM

Originally Posted by John83

France's elo rating right now is 2082. Ours is 1676. Statistically, us getting a result against France would be comparable to Rawanda or Indonesia getting a result against us. If it happens, Deschamps should be fired. Even in a friendly.

Well Malta aren't that far off Rwanda or Indonesia and we barely scraped past them with a lucky goal.

While the odds are heavily against us winning, it is reasonable to expect this team to be able to make it difficult for France and keep the game close.

Ultimately in this group to be a success for us, I would want 12 pts from Greece and Gibraltar and good displays against NL & FR regardless of the result. That would show progress as a team and put us in good momentum and form should we find ourselves in a playoff

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 18/03/2023, 9:53 AM

Lads, on that ELO rankings, France are 3rd. Portugal are 5th. We drew with Portugal at home and nearly beat them away in the World Cup campaign. Ok, we had Anthony Barry at that stage but it was under Kenny's reign. Drawing at home to France will take some luck but it really isn't as outlandish as some of you are making it out.

**pineapple stu** · 18/03/2023, 11:14 AM

The more relevant fact to take from the Elo ratings is that Portugal are 100 points weaker than France. That's a lot. It close to halves our chances of a draw.

Plus Portugal weren't that bothered about the game in Dublin and left out 4/5 players. But losing and not getting any injuries ahead of Serbia was the key.

We're actually more likely to draw against Latvia than France based on ratings and that would be a pretty crap result.