Beecher Networks - Web Development, Hosting & Domains
Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Opta power rankings

  1. #1
    Reserves A N Mouse's Avatar
    Joined
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    828
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    77
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    153
    Thanked in
    101 Posts

    Opta power rankings

    With only weeks before we have better things to talk about Opta have weighed in on the tired old debate about comparing clubs in different leagues.

    https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/02/wh...ower-rankings/



    hint search for premier division ireland, you should see it in the suggestions, as Derry are listed under a different country for some reason

    you can apply multiple filters for countries or league to compare

  2. #2
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2002
    Location
    In the long grass
    Posts
    38,099
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,663
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    4,893
    Thanked in
    3,197 Posts
    Interesting to see Kerry rated higher than Athlone and Cobh already!

  3. #3
    Youth Team Burnsie's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    241
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    114
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    41
    Thanked in
    29 Posts
    If you filter it for England and Rep Ireland (plus N Ireland for Derry) ,it projects the following league positions in the English divisions:


    Shamrock Rovers: 5th in Championship

    Derry: Top of League One
    Dundalk: 4th in League One
    St Pats: 6th in League One
    Sligo: 13th in League One
    Bohs: 15th in League One

    Shels: 5th in League Two
    Cork City: 15th in League Two
    Drogheda: 19th in League Two
    Waterford: 22nd in League Two
    UCD: 23rd in League Two
    Last edited by Burnsie; 01/02/2023 at 12:10 PM.

  4. #4
    Youth Team
    Joined
    Feb 2022
    Posts
    188
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    0
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    22
    Thanked in
    16 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Burnsie View Post
    If you filter it for England and Rep Ireland (plus N Ireland for Derry) ,it projects the following league positions in the English divisions:


    Shamrock Rovers: 5th in Championship

    Derry: Top of League One
    Dundalk: 4th in League One
    St Pats: 6th in League One
    Sligo: 13th in League One
    Bohs: 15th in League One

    Shels: 5th in League Two
    **** City: 15th in League Two
    Drogheda: 19th in League Two
    Waterford: 22nd in League Two
    UCD: 23rd in League Two
    Seems realistic ok

  5. #5
    Like the Fonz. Only a dog. Mr A's Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2004
    Location
    In the gutter, but looking at the stars
    Posts
    11,479
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,729
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,309
    Thanked in
    1,522 Posts
    These rankings clearly do not ascribe proper weighting to the quality of soup available at home games.
    #NeverStopNotGivingUp

  6. Thanks From:


  7. #6
    Coach John83's Avatar
    Joined
    Feb 2003
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    8,624
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,950
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,148
    Thanked in
    711 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Burnsie View Post
    Shamrock Rovers: 5th in Championship
    If this were remotely true, the Rovers team would all be competing for places in the Ireland squad, which is riseable.

  8. Thanks From:


  9. #7
    First Team
    Joined
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    2,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    249
    Thanked in
    172 Posts
    Yeah I agree, the idea that this Rovers team would be even close to 5th in the english championship is completely false. We would be battling relegation in the championship, and I wouldn't expect us to survive. Top 5 in league 1 would be more appropriate I'd imagine

  10. #8
    First Team
    Joined
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    2,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    249
    Thanked in
    172 Posts
    Meant to add, the other projections for LOI teams are equally nonsensical. Dundalk/sligo /bohs would be at the bottom of league 1

  11. #9
    Youth Team
    Joined
    Feb 2022
    Posts
    188
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    0
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    22
    Thanked in
    16 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by placid casual View Post
    Yeah I agree, the idea that this Rovers team would be even close to 5th in the english championship is completely false. We would be battling relegation in the championship, and I wouldn't expect us to survive. Top 5 in league 1 would be more appropriate I'd imagine
    i would'nt be sure Rovers would be even that level in League one , and i reckon the rest would be a mixture of League two and non league

  12. #10
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2002
    Location
    In the long grass
    Posts
    38,099
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,663
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    4,893
    Thanked in
    3,197 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by placid casual View Post
    Meant to add, the other projections for LOI teams are equally nonsensical. Dundalk/sligo /bohs would be at the bottom of league 1
    Yep, and an amateur student/youth team probably wouldn't be Conference level, let alone L2.

  13. #11
    Reserves
    Joined
    Sep 2018
    Posts
    693
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    11
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    156
    Thanked in
    116 Posts
    There is no way Rovers would even be at the top of the League 1 and the notion of them (or any Irish club) being anywhere near the Championship is nonsensical.

    The likes of Portsmouth, Barsnley, Derby, Ipswich, Sheffield Weds etc all in League 1 ffs.

    Even clubs bigger than any in Ireland like Bradford sitting in League 2.

    Find it hard to think that any LOI would survive for any sustained period of time in League 1. I think vast majority would struggle to hang about the lower echelons of League 2 / upper end of National League as well.

  14. Thanks From:


  15. #12
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2002
    Location
    In the long grass
    Posts
    38,099
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,663
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    4,893
    Thanked in
    3,197 Posts
    I've brought up the below chart from this tweet before (or, well, Jd2793 did originally here)

    It uses European results to try gauge the strengths between each league. Summer football may "help" us there of course, but it's a comparison I'd be more in agreement with anyway.

    (Ignore the "UK" reference...I think we were added to the chart at a poster's request)


  16. #13
    Seasoned Pro brendy_éire's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Up the town, Derry
    Posts
    3,751
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    32
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    300
    Thanked in
    222 Posts
    The LoI/IL comparison seems to be fairly accurate.
    A combined 10 team PD would have three IL clubs (Linfield, Larne, Cliftonville), a combined 16 team PD would have 6 IL teams (+Crues, Glens, Coleraine). I reckon that'd be how it would work out in reality.

    It's exceedingly difficult to make comparisons, but the English ones well off.
    Have you ever won the treble?

  17. #14
    First Team
    Joined
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    2,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    249
    Thanked in
    172 Posts
    There's probably a tendency to see a well known english team and assume based on their historical stature that they'd be better than a LOI.
    As mentioned no LOI team would survive in the championship, I'd wager Rovers, Derry and Pat's could hold their own in league 1. Most of the next 3 or 4 could manage league 2 imo.

  18. #15
    Seasoned Pro El-Pietro's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Cork
    Posts
    3,617
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,322
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    646
    Thanked in
    447 Posts
    League of Ireland teams could beat Championship/League one clubs in one off matches. But those leagues are 46 game slogs which regularly involve two games a week. You could make an argument that Shamrock Rovers best 11 or say 14 would be comparable with specific English Clubs but the depth just isn't there and over a full season any Irish club as currently constructed would struggle to stay afloat in any of the professional divisions in England.

  19. #16
    First Team
    Joined
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,527
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    323
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    242
    Thanked in
    187 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by El-Pietro View Post
    League of Ireland teams could beat Championship/League one clubs in one off matches. But those leagues are 46 game slogs which regularly involve two games a week. You could make an argument that Shamrock Rovers best 11 or say 14 would be comparable with specific English Clubs but the depth just isn't there and over a full season any Irish club as currently constructed would struggle to stay afloat in any of the professional divisions in England.
    I see the point you’re trying to make but I think rovers have the squad to deal with that. A quick look at Carlisle United for example, this season they’ll have played 52 games by the end of the season. Shamrock rovers played 54 games last season
    Paaatrick's Agletic

  20. #17
    Apprentice
    Joined
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    38
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    13
    Thanked in
    7 Posts
    I've just taken a look at the methodology here:

    https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/01/po...r-club-ranked/

    and I have to say that there are quite a few significant flaws with it. For one thing, Elo ratings in chess (where they were first used) do not become final until a player has played more than 25 games, yet Kerry are ahead of Athlone and Cobh without even playing a competitive match at senior level! I suspect what they did is that they simply applied the league rating without any further adjustments. It would have been more accurate (if still not ideal) to have given then Cobh's ranking of 48.8 for now.

    The methodology is quite vague and lacks any statistical formulae, which one usually sees in Elo rankings like this. Compare it with ClubElo, which has been going for a while now:

    http://clubelo.com/System

    and you can see that they go down much deeper into how their rankings are calculated.

    For what it's worth, I've been producing my own rankings for a couple of months now, but I didn't use the Elo system since this is difficult to get right. Instead, I used a generalised linear model to calculate attack and defence ratings for each team. I have about 10,000 teams formally ranked as well as a further 10,000 clubs where not enough matches have been played for a ranking:

    http://clubfootballrankings.net/

    As part of this, I can use the team rankings to calculate the average team ranking, and I have the Premier Division in 85th, between League Two and the National League, and the FD is in 290th, between the English sixth and seventh tiers and below the NIFL Premiership. These seem to tally with the general consensus in this thread. I have Shamrock Rovers in 437th (vs 299th in the Opta Rankings), which is equivalent to third in League One (perhaps a little controversial!).

    I should say that there are a few problems with my effort as well, particularly at the intercontinental level, due to a lack of matches causing a lot of volatility, and newly promoted teams that start the season very strongly are given unrealistically high rankings, again due to a lack of games, but I'll settle for that given I have just a laptop, SQL and R to generate these. Opta on the other hand are the leaders in sports statistics and are usually quite reliable, so it's suprising that this isn't up to their usually high standards.

  21. Thanks From:


Similar Threads

  1. Rankings
    By swinfordfc in forum Ireland
    Replies: 152
    Last Post: 12/08/2011, 2:15 PM
  2. FIFA Rankings
    By EalingGreen in forum Ireland
    Replies: 67
    Last Post: 30/03/2007, 9:31 AM
  3. Opta stats
    By eirebhoy in forum Ireland
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 23/08/2005, 4:08 PM
  4. OPTA Premiership Team of the Season
    By Karlos in forum World League Football
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 19/05/2005, 2:03 PM
  5. city-opta halfway report
    By pete in forum Cork City
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 25/08/2003, 5:58 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •