Without wanting to take away from this (which I do agree with), Bosnia losing in Iceland tonight is another result we could have done without. Wales won at least - if they can beat Croatia next month we may have a chance. But that's what we've come toOriginally Posted by Bungle
If we make it to a playoff, I'll obviously support the team and hope we get in. But yeah I can't say I'm a huge fan of this system or that path to qualification.
Same here. I'll take anything Ireland can get, but qualification for the Euros has been really devalued by this nations league playoff stuff UEFA have brought in. Almost harder NOT to qualify for the tournament these days (which really puts our desperate results into perspective). You'd always want Ireland there, but due to greed and TV money, the tournament itself has been devalued from the days of the top 8 sides in Europe battling it out.
Had Russia been involved in the league, I think Ireland would have been ranked higher than Slovenia.
It's not that much different to euro 2016, except for 3rd place play offs we have nations league play offs.
Not many criticised that one when we finished third in the qual group and went the play off route and also finished 3rd in the Euro final group and went to the knockouts, minnows take what crumbs fall their way.
Of the 4 teams who qualified via the 2020 playoffs, Hungary did well and Slovakia did decent.
I'm a big fan of the Nations League format, not just for replacing deadbeat friendlies, but it provides good competitive games where you can test your squad and gain rewards for good results.
Bit of a topsy-turvy second half of the window - culminating in the last game, Romania v Kosovo, finishing an hour late after Kosovo walked off the pitch early on in protest at "Kosovo is Serbia" banners from the home fans. A key match for us too. Romania were playing against ten men for 50 minutes, missed a penalty, and finally scored twice in the last five minutes. So they remain unconvincing...
But at the moment the play-offs would be -
League A
Poland
Wales
Estonia
Iceland *
League B
Israel
Bosnia
Finland *
Ukraine *
League C
Georgia
Greece
Kazakhstan
Luxembourg
* - I'm not actually sure if the League A play-off gets filled by the lowest qualifying League B team (as last time) or if there's a draw for the place, excluding the League B group winners.
Anyways, bottom line is there's still four teams placed below us in the Nations League who are qualifying, and we can't have that be more than two.
Slovakia beat Liechtenstein 3-0 yesterday, and Bosnia lost 1-0 to Iceland. Disaster there. Bosnia are now seven points behind Slovakia with four games to go, and really not looking at all capable of bridging that. (As an aside, Luxembourg could overtake Slovakia in second with the right results next month, including a home win against Slovakia - that would have them in second despite losing 15-0 across two games against Portugal. They've only conceded one goal in their other four games...)
Wales had a 2-0 win in Latvia yesterday and are just three points behind Turkey with three games to go, and still have to play Turkey at home. Both sides have to play Croatia (Wales at home, Turkey away) and a lesser light (Turkey H v Latvia, Wales A v Armenia). But Wales' form has been poor lately and it's hard to see them doing the business.
Albania beat Poland 2-0, which was fairly unexpected. They're now four points ahead of Poland with three games to go. Wins against the Faroes at home and Moldova away and they'll qualify even if they lose to the Czechs at home next month. Poland for their part have the same run-in, except it's Moldova at home and the Faroes away. The next set of games is Albania v Czech Republic and Faroes v Poland - two away wins there and Albania could feel a bit of pressure; I can't imagine they're used to being in their current position.
And then Romania, who still look encouragingly flaky. They're a point ahead of Israel with four games to go, and have to travel to Israel. They've a similar run in, including Switzerland at home each. October is Israel v Switzerland, Kosovo v Israel, Belarus v Romania and Romania v Andorra. So expect Romania to be still in second going into November, but a gain in Kosovo v Israel and Belarus v Romania is quite possible.
So Bosnia we can forget about. Wales not looking great. Albania could yet bottle it. And Romania's form is unconvincing and our best bet. But we need two of those four to go our way to sneak into the playoffs. Maybe a 20% chance at best?
Kind of sad if we can't even reach the play-offs for a 24-team Euros now...
Israel usually do manage to 'scotch' qualification from a good position in a group.
Afaiu, the 4 team league B play off path is not decided on ranking should there be more than 4 league B teams who qualify for the play offs.
If there are more than 4 teams in League B who qualify for the playoffs then there will be a draw to decide the 4 teams who enter league B play off path.
The team(s) who miss(ed) out in the draw will go into the league A playoff path.
As it stands now, realistically Poland & Wales from League A, joined by Estonia and the league B team who missed out on the draw for the league B path.
I'm open to correction of course.
I was about say that you were incorrect outright, but there was a nagging doubt in my mind, like I had read something about a draw before. I checked Wikipedia and it described team selection based on ranking (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_E...Team_selection). Then I linked through to the UEFA regulations and found the regulations below. Section 16.02 seems to reiterate that play-off team selection is based purely on ranking and that should be that. But then Section 16.03 starts talking about a draw to allocate teams and mentioning something cryptic about seeding principles, which seems to contradict Section 16.02 - unless they're saying that, once the four teams are determined by ranking, there's a draw to decide who plays who, subject to some vague seeding principles. Should we be watching for some shenanigans by UEFA?
Article 16 Path formation – play-offs
16.01 Twelve teams enter the play-offs, which are played in three separate paths of four teams each, to determine the remaining three teams that qualify for the final tournament.
16.02 To determine the 12 teams that enter the play-offs, the following principles apply in the order given:
- Four play-off slots are allocated to each league from UEFA Nations League C to UEFA Nations League A, i.e. in reverse alphabetical order.
- The UEFA Nations League group winners enter the play-offs unless they have qualified for the final tournament directly from the qualifying group stage.
- If a UEFA Nations League group winner of Leagues A, B and C has qualified directly for the final tournament, the next best-ranked team in the relevant league ranking which has not directly qualified will enter the play-offs (see Regulations of the UEFA Nations League).
- If fewer than four teams from one league enter the play-offs, the first available slot is allocated to the best-ranked group winner of League D in the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings (see Regulations of the UEFA Nations League), unless it has already qualified for the final tournament. The remaining slots are then allocated to the best-ranked of the teams that have not already qualified for the final tournament on the basis of the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings, subject to the restriction that group winners of Leagues A, B and C cannot be in a play-off path with higher-ranked teams.
16.03 The UEFA administration conducts a draw to allocate teams to the different play-off paths, starting with UEFA Nations League C, subject to the following conditions:
- If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path of four teams from the league in question must be formed.
- A group winner cannot form a path with a team from a higher-ranked league in the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings.
- Additional conditions including seeding principles may be applied, subject to approval by the UEFA Executive Committee.
the indo have summarised the playoff picture nicely here:
https://www.independent.ie/sport/soc...409049221.html
Sam, the criteria got the better of me last time but it became clearer when I saw how the 3 teams were selected from league c to join Iceland in the league A play off path. League B just had 4 teams who qualified for the play offs.
There was draw to select those three teams from League C, they were not selected on rankings (Hungary Romania and Bulgaria).
This time most probably there will only be 4 teams from League c who qualify for League c play off path.
If there are more than 4 in League B who qualify for the playoff there will be a draw to determine which non group winner will be placed in the league.A play off path.
Last edited by geysir; 13/09/2023 at 6:15 PM.
We're screwed with the play off routes after tonight's results
Yeah - we were pretty screwed anyway but we needed 2 of 4 scenarios to happen... 1) pretty unlikely 9% chance? 2) almost zero chance, less than 1% 3) likely enough 60% chance 4) very unlikely 2%
- Assuming Croatia beat Wales, Turkey beat Latvia and Wales beat Armenia - we would need Wales to beat Turkey at home, by more at least more than a goal. Winning by a 2 goal margin would send it to goal difference - which would probably end up close, with a two goal win, Wales would be one goal up, but Wales losing to Croatia would have them at least one goal down, making it even. Then it comes down to if Wales can win by more against Armenia than Turkey can against Latvia. Overall very unlikely (FYI that Armenia team that everyone was saying were **** last year, they beat Wales in Wales, they drew with Turkey in Turkey and they only lost to Croatia by a goal - the longer it goes the better and better that Scotland, Ukraine, Ireland, Armenia group looks - with Scotland winning a group featuring Spain and Norway - and Ukraine likely to go down to the wire with Italy for a place in the group with England)
- Albania will now certainly take Group E. They need 1 point from two games against Faroe Islands or Moldova. Definitely nothing happening for us there.
- Israel finishing ahead of Romania is still likely. No idea what will happen there or how those games can be made up. Israel 2 points behind Romania with a game in hand. But they’re also guaranteed a playoff in March. So they’ll likely have 4 games to play in November which seems impossible.
- So in this one, let's assume that Portugal beat Slovakia and Slovakia beat Luxembourg. That puts Slovakia on 16 points. We would then need either Iceland or Bosnia to beat both Portugal and Slovakia and you’d need the other team not to lose to Slovakia - so really unlikely to happen.
Yeah, I held out hope before today - but Croatia losing at home to Turkey and Albania hammer Czechia? I think the footballing gods have made their point about us qualifying. Well, might as well save the money and let Kenny see it out at this point - perhaps not firing him after the Greece game might have been the better option after all.
Like I said when the draw was made I had hoped that we used up all our bad luck with the laughably bad draw we got that hopefully results at least in other qualifying results would go our way to make up for it…literally everything that could go wrong in the other groups has gone wrong, like others have said there is definitely someone up there in the heavens who does not want us at this tournament. We needed some shock results to have a chance and while thankfully we’ve had shocks sadly pretty much all of them have been bad shocks, the shock doesn’t tend to be results like Wales or Bosnia/Iceland miraculously Turing things around it tends to be results like Albania qualifying or Slovakia being so far ahead of the pack in their qualifying group.
3 tickets available in Block520, row Q. Season ticket holders who can't attend. Let them go for best offer.
Think some posters were flagging it here at the start too. Greece v Holland on Monday is a tasty game now, though the Dutch hammered them at home last month.
Though it's looking highly unlikely we'll make the play-offs anyway. If Slovakia win in Luxembourg on Monday and Bosnia lose at home to Portugal, then Bosnia are out. (Luxembourg in fairness are unbeaten in the group apart from home/away to Portugal, and drew in Bratislava, so a Slovakia win isn't assured at all). And because Poland play the Czechs in the last round, Albania only need a point against the Faroes at home or Moldova away to qualify. That'd be the end of us, even before Israel try play four games next month to pass out Romania, or Wales play Croatia tonight needing (for us) a win.
We can't even make a 12-team play-off to qualify for a 24-team Euros now...
What a fitting end to the Kenny era it would be to go to to Amsterdam and win the game we have to lose.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
Not only that, but might it keep him in the job for another bit?
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