Originally Posted by
elatedscum
It was an awful draw.
There were 5 teams you wanted to avoid in Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Portugal. In Pool 2, there were 2 teams: France, England. And if you did get France or England, you'd hope you'd get a team like Hungary or Switzerland or Poland. So we basically had a 10% chance of getting a rough draw and with France being stronger than England and the Netherlands stronger than average good Pot 1 side. Getting the second best and the best team in both pots is basically a 2% outcome, getting Spain and France being the 1% outcome, but the 6th percentile outcome for Ukraine is pretty bad too (Italy and England).
That's ignoring the 4th seed. Greece were probably the best 4th seed and them and Turkey were the only have decent sides in that pot. Once again though, if you're purely talking about qualification, then when you've got two excellent teams, the quality of the 4th seed is pretty immaterial - like there's no scenario where it's us and Greece qualifying. And Greece are more likely to take points off France than the Faroe Islands would be. Obviously the chance of us coming 4th is much higher than it would be if we had the Faroes in our group, which will affect our future seedings and so on.
What you'd hope is that one of France and Netherlands beat the other home and away, and we pick up draws against them all, even 3 draws and a loss would be enough if it were against the better side. Then we beat Gibraltar and Greece home and away. That's how you'd map the path. It starts with not losing to France in March.
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