UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying Group B

[CSAD]

To bring one element of positivity to the discussion is traditionally Stephen Kenny Irish sides have gone well against similar or better sides. Portugal Serbia for example in the last campaign.

You got the Dutch and French who are better

The Greeks who would be similar level to us (we probably would be abit better) and Gibraltar who are so bad that even a Kenny side couldn?t screw up against.

I don?t think we?ll get top 2 obviously but I don?t think we?ll go as bad as some think, it largely comes down to how we start, don?t start with 0 points from 2 or 3 games for a change and maybe we?ll at least give it a go even if it almost certainly end up in us finish 3rd or 4th.

[WexCar.]

It doesn't matter how Denmark, Switzerland, France & Netherlands compare with each other, truth us we are nowhere near Netherlands and France.

We will be lucky to get 1pt from those 4 games, our best chance is to catch them in the first couple of games with world cup hangover or in the last couple of games when they are already qualified and send out 2nd string teams, but even then Greece will be thinking the same thing.

IMO success in this group will be a comfortable 6pts from GIB, at least 4pts from Greece and being able to put it up to NL & FR and keep it close even though I'm not confident of getting points from either. I think that will show progress and give confidence in the playoffs.

Looking at the other groups I am confident we will have a playoff spot as at least 7 of the groups should be predictable enough with who finishes top 2.

[Insidetherock]

Time for a play off simulation:

Group A: Best case Spain and Scotland qualify, Norway move to 7th in B standings. Or Spain and Norway qualify, Scotland remain in play off final. Worst case, Georgia qualify and both Scotland and Norway remain above us in Play off places.

Prediction: Spain/Norway, Scotland go to B play off finals

Group B: Best case, we qualify directly. next best, Scotland qualify from group A, and we move up to 9th in play off standings.

Prediction: Netherlands/France qualify, but as Norway qualified in A, we move up to 9th in play off standings

Group C: Best case, Italy/England qualify, Ukraine finish 3rd. Worst case, North Macedonia qualify ahead of Italy/England, pushing them into a play off spot in Path A

Prediction: Italy/England qualify. We stay in 9th in play off standings

Group D: This is the first of the potential outcomes that might hurt us. I think Wales may begin to go backwards after the World Cup, with retirements imminent. Best case scenario would be Croatia and Wales qualifying, but I think Turkey will finish ahead of Wales here.

Prediction: Croatia/Turkey qualify, Wales take a place in the Path A play offs

Group E: Another Group that might have an impact. Best case would be Poland and Czechia qualifying, keeping extra places in the Path A play off open.. but Albania might be a kicker. Because they finished below us in NL Path B, if they could get past one of the two A teams, they'd reduce the number of play off spots available. But I think the two A teams will prevail

Prediction: Poland and Czechia to qualify

Group F: More hassle for us. Belgium will qualify for the group, but Austria will likely fight Sweden for 2nd place. We really need the Austrians to do us a favour here, but going to go with the worst case scenario and say Sweden will finish second.

Prediction: Belgium/Sweden qualify, Austria got to NL Path A play off

Group G: The Balkans War group.. there'll be plenty niggle in a lot of these games.. but I think Hungary and Serbia will come out of the group as direct qualifiers in the end. This means we then move up to 8th in the play off standings. Things will start to get bad for us if Serbia don't get out of this group

Prediction: Hungary/Serbia, Ireland move to 8th in play off standings

Group H: This could help us as Denmark are likely to qualify, but the second qualifier is likely to be one of two teams higher than us in the play off standings.. meaning if/when they qualify, we'll move up a place in the rankings. Worst case scenario.. is if Kazakhstan or Norn Ireland have a banger of a campaign and displace Finland or Slovenia for the second direct spot in qualifying..

Prediction: Denmark/Finland, we move up to 7th in the play off standings in Group B

Group I: Another really iffy group for us. Switzerland will qualify, but Romania or even Kosovo could beat Isreal to the 2nd spot. We will really need to be cheering on the Isrealis in this one. But for the purposes of this, I am going to give this to Romania

Prediction: Switzerland/Romania

Group J: Another good group for us, with the second qualifying spot likely to fall between two teams higher in the rankings than us, thus freeing up a spot ahead of us. But who knows with Iceland these days

Prediction: Portugal/Bosnia, moving Ireland up to 6th in the play off rankings

So, if/when that all shakes out, where do I think we'll stand?

Direct qualifiers:

Spain Norway Netherlands France England Italy Croatia Turkey Poland Czechia Belgium Sweden Hungary Serbia Denmark Finland Switzerland Romania Portugal Bosnia

Nations League Path A play offs:

Austria, Wales, Estonia*


Nations League Path B play off:

Israel, Scotland, Ukraine, Iceland


Path B team that moves to complete Path A

Slovenia


Ireland would lose out in the play offs.. by one spot

We're going to struggle I think..

[brine3]

lads tying themselves up in knots for their own agendas. you are truly deluded if you think denmark and switzerland are as good as france and holland. holland are one of the best teams in the europe under LVG.

LVG won't be in charge though... we'll see

Not that he did much better against Ireland previously

[Eirambler]

Yes, and again the playoffs are a completely self inflicted mess for us. If we had taken even just one more point off either Ukraine or Scotland we'd be a spot higher up the Nations League rankings and would take the playoff spot Slovenia have gained in the simulation above.

I agree Sweden and Romania will likely qualify automatically ahead of Austria and Israel. That means we need every group to go our way to get a playoff place - it's highly unlikely we will be that fortunate, there is always a surprise qualifier somewhere and there are three or four more possibilities that could go against us in this draw.

[CSAD]

Time for a play off simulation:

Group A: Best case Spain and Scotland qualify, Norway move to 7th in B standings. Or Spain and Norway qualify, Scotland remain in play off final. Worst case, Georgia qualify and both Scotland and Norway remain above us in Play off places.

Prediction: Spain/Norway, Scotland go to B play off finals

Group B: Best case, we qualify directly. next best, Scotland qualify from group A, and we move up to 9th in play off standings.

Prediction: Netherlands/France qualify, but as Norway qualified in A, we move up to 9th in play off standings

Group C: Best case, Italy/England qualify, Ukraine finish 3rd. Worst case, North Macedonia qualify ahead of Italy/England, pushing them into a play off spot in Path A

Prediction: Italy/England qualify. We stay in 9th in play off standings

Group D: This is the first of the potential outcomes that might hurt us. I think Wales may begin to go backwards after the World Cup, with retirements imminent. Best case scenario would be Croatia and Wales qualifying, but I think Turkey will finish ahead of Wales here.

Prediction: Croatia/Turkey qualify, Wales take a place in the Path A play offs

Group E: Another Group that might have an impact. Best case would be Poland and Czechia qualifying, keeping extra places in the Path A play off open.. but Albania might be a kicker. Because they finished below us in NL Path B, if they could get past one of the two A teams, they'd reduce the number of play off spots available. But I think the two A teams will prevail

Prediction: Poland and Czechia to qualify

Group F: More hassle for us. Belgium will qualify for the group, but Austria will likely fight Sweden for 2nd place. We really need the Austrians to do us a favour here, but going to go with the worst case scenario and say Sweden will finish second.

Prediction: Belgium/Sweden qualify, Austria got to NL Path A play off

Group G: The Balkans War group.. there'll be plenty niggle in a lot of these games.. but I think Hungary and Serbia will come out of the group as direct qualifiers in the end. This means we then move up to 8th in the play off standings. Things will start to get bad for us if Serbia don't get out of this group

Prediction: Hungary/Serbia, Ireland move to 8th in play off standings

Group H: This could help us as Denmark are likely to qualify, but the second qualifier is likely to be one of two teams higher than us in the play off standings.. meaning if/when they qualify, we'll move up a place in the rankings. Worst case scenario.. is if Kazakhstan or Norn Ireland have a banger of a campaign and displace Finland or Slovenia for the second direct spot in qualifying..

Prediction: Denmark/Finland, we move up to 7th in the play off standings in Group B

Group I: Another really iffy group for us. Switzerland will qualify, but Romania or even Kosovo could beat Isreal to the 2nd spot. We will really need to be cheering on the Isrealis in this one. But for the purposes of this, I am going to give this to Romania

Prediction: Switzerland/Romania

Group J: Another good group for us, with the second qualifying spot likely to fall between two teams higher in the rankings than us, thus freeing up a spot ahead of us. But who knows with Iceland these days

Prediction: Portugal/Bosnia, moving Ireland up to 6th in the play off rankings

So, if/when that all shakes out, where do I think we'll stand?

Direct qualifiers:

Spain Norway Netherlands France England Italy Croatia Turkey Poland Czechia Belgium Sweden Hungary Serbia Denmark Finland Switzerland Romania Portugal Bosnia

Nations League Path A play offs:

Austria, Wales, Estonia*


Nations League Path B play off:

Israel, Scotland, Ukraine, Iceland


Path B team that moves to complete Path A

Slovenia


Ireland would lose out in the play offs.. by one spot

We're going to struggle I think..

How would Estonia be the the play off? There is not automatic spot for league D.

[Insidetherock]

Yes, and again the playoffs are a completely self inflicted mess for us. If we had taken even just one more point off either Ukraine or Scotland we'd be a spot higher up the Nations League rankings and would take the playoff spot Slovenia have gained in the simulation above.

I agree Sweden and Romania will likely qualify automatically ahead of Austria and Israel. That means we need every group to go our way to get a playoff place - it's highly unlikely we will be that fortunate, there is always a surprise qualifier somewhere and there are three or four more possibilities that could go against us in this draw.

It does absolutely show the importance of the Nations League that people still talk about as "meaningless friendlies"

[CSAD]

Yes, and again the playoffs are a completely self inflicted mess for us. If we had taken even just one more point off either Ukraine or Scotland we'd be a spot higher up the Nations League rankings and would take the playoff spot Slovenia have gained in the simulation above.

I agree Sweden and Romania will likely qualify automatically ahead of Austria and Israel. That means we need every group to go our way to get a playoff place - it's highly unlikely we will be that fortunate, there is always a surprise qualifier somewhere and there are three or four more possibilities that could go against us in this draw.

The Sweden and Romania who were relegated to league C?

Feel a lot of these teams are being judged on reputation rather than recent form.

[Real ale Madrid]

Time for a play off simulation:

Group A: Best case Spain and Scotland qualify, Norway move to 7th in B standings. Or Spain and Norway qualify, Scotland remain in play off final. Worst case, Georgia qualify and both Scotland and Norway remain above us in Play off places.

Prediction: Spain/Norway, Scotland go to B play off finals

Group B: Best case, we qualify directly. next best, Scotland qualify from group A, and we move up to 9th in play off standings.

Prediction: Netherlands/France qualify, but as Norway qualified in A, we move up to 9th in play off standings

Group C: Best case, Italy/England qualify, Ukraine finish 3rd. Worst case, North Macedonia qualify ahead of Italy/England, pushing them into a play off spot in Path A

Prediction: Italy/England qualify. We stay in 9th in play off standings

Group D: This is the first of the potential outcomes that might hurt us. I think Wales may begin to go backwards after the World Cup, with retirements imminent. Best case scenario would be Croatia and Wales qualifying, but I think Turkey will finish ahead of Wales here.

Prediction: Croatia/Turkey qualify, Wales take a place in the Path A play offs

Group E: Another Group that might have an impact. Best case would be Poland and Czechia qualifying, keeping extra places in the Path A play off open.. but Albania might be a kicker. Because they finished below us in NL Path B, if they could get past one of the two A teams, they'd reduce the number of play off spots available. But I think the two A teams will prevail

Prediction: Poland and Czechia to qualify

Group F: More hassle for us. Belgium will qualify for the group, but Austria will likely fight Sweden for 2nd place. We really need the Austrians to do us a favour here, but going to go with the worst case scenario and say Sweden will finish second.

Prediction: Belgium/Sweden qualify, Austria got to NL Path A play off

Group G: The Balkans War group.. there'll be plenty niggle in a lot of these games.. but I think Hungary and Serbia will come out of the group as direct qualifiers in the end. This means we then move up to 8th in the play off standings. Things will start to get bad for us if Serbia don't get out of this group

Prediction: Hungary/Serbia, Ireland move to 8th in play off standings

Group H: This could help us as Denmark are likely to qualify, but the second qualifier is likely to be one of two teams higher than us in the play off standings.. meaning if/when they qualify, we'll move up a place in the rankings. Worst case scenario.. is if Kazakhstan or Norn Ireland have a banger of a campaign and displace Finland or Slovenia for the second direct spot in qualifying..

Prediction: Denmark/Finland, we move up to 7th in the play off standings in Group B

Group I: Another really iffy group for us. Switzerland will qualify, but Romania or even Kosovo could beat Isreal to the 2nd spot. We will really need to be cheering on the Isrealis in this one. But for the purposes of this, I am going to give this to Romania

Prediction: Switzerland/Romania

Group J: Another good group for us, with the second qualifying spot likely to fall between two teams higher in the rankings than us, thus freeing up a spot ahead of us. But who knows with Iceland these days

Prediction: Portugal/Bosnia, moving Ireland up to 6th in the play off rankings

So, if/when that all shakes out, where do I think we'll stand?

Direct qualifiers:

Spain Norway Netherlands France England Italy Croatia Turkey Poland Czechia Belgium Sweden Hungary Serbia Denmark Finland Switzerland Romania Portugal Bosnia

Nations League Path A play offs:

Austria, Wales, Estonia*


Nations League Path B play off:

Israel, Scotland, Ukraine, Iceland


Path B team that moves to complete Path A

Slovenia


Ireland would lose out in the play offs.. by one spot

We're going to struggle I think..

Cracking post. I don't think Turkey are great at the moment but whatever way you look at it - its a lot tighter than I thought it would have been so it makes the whole draw doubly disappointing from an Irish perspective.

[CSAD]

How would Estonia be the the play off? There is not automatic spot for league D.

Just found out the answer

Not to say it as an excuse for Ireland failing but things like this make a mockery of the whole qualification system, beating a bunch of part timers gets you a play off automatically.

League C I could tolerate but League D especially now should have 0 bearing on qualification for a major tournament.

[Eirambler]

The Sweden and Romania who were relegated to league C?

Feel a lot of these teams are being judged on reputation rather than recent form.

Sweden were in the Nations League group of death. And have attacking players of a standard we could only dream of in Isak and Kulasevski.

Romania took as many points in their group as we took in ours, despite not having an Armenia type no-hoper in the group. I'd be fairly confident we'd have been relegated from their group. And they only really have to get past Israel to qualify automatically for the Euros.

We're going to need a lot of luck to scrape a playoff place.

[elatedscum]

Just found out the answer

Not to say it as an excuse for Ireland failing but things like this make a mockery of the whole qualification system, beating a bunch of part timers gets you a play off automatically.

League C I could tolerate but League D especially now should have 0 bearing on qualification for a major tournament.

John Delaney is to blame. Wasn?t the nations League his idea? And the only reason that England and France were second seeds was because of nations league.

The groups were basically self perpetuating - England were first seeds, they?d get a handy draw and would generally win the group and therefore they?d remain first seeds. Very occasionally they?d get a decent team in their group and struggle (see Croatia and Euro 2008) - but basically it was a consistent.

The nations league means that you had groups with, for example, all of Germany, England and Italy in the same group and you had some 3rd place teams being made second seeds for the euros.

It?s shaken things up much more which is both a good and a bad thing. The positive is you don?t get top sides with automatic qualification forever. The negative is, a side like ireland are essentially ****ed. Same with Ukraine in the group with England and Italy.

Meanwhile Norn Iron as 5th seed got this group:

Denmark
Finland
Slovenia
Kazakhstan
Northern Ireland
San Marino

Greece are probably as good as Finland - they certainly have better players anyway.

If you gave a playoff to the 3rd place teams, that?d be a decent solution, because then the groups of death have a reasonable alternate route.

Anyway - **** it. Rough day

[Eirambler]

Was it not the 24 team Euros Delaney came up with, rather than the Nations League? Obviously not wanting to defend Delaney about, well, anything really, but the 24 team Euros is the only thing that's even giving us a sniff of a chance here as we might still sneak a playoff place if we're really lucky.

Obviously that's more than cancelled out by Delaney hiring Kenny though. Arguably only when Kenny is gone can we really start to put the Delaney era behind us.

[CSAD]

Sweden were in the Nations League group of death. And have attacking players of a standard we could only dream of in Isak and Kulasevski.

Romania took as many points in their group as we took in ours, despite not having an Armenia type no-hoper in the group. I'd be fairly confident we'd have been relegated from their group. And they only really have to get past Israel to qualify automatically for the Euros.

We're going to need a lot of luck to scrape a playoff place.

I would accept that if they were half decent in that group but in the end they were well short. Put it this way, if Slovenia were in Sweden?s position right now would you back them to finish ahead of Austria? No you wouldn?t.

It doesn?t really matter what we could dream of because at the end of the day they are the third best team in their group on paper and what form have we seen to say they would finish ahead of Austria? All the teams in Austria?s group would have won the NL group Sweden were relegated from?

Except 3 of those points were in a dead rubber against Bosnia when they were already promoted. The fact of the matter is there very little evidence to suggest Romania or Sweden would qualify ahead of the team currently in 2nd in their group unless you judge based on reputation or give the most negative outcome possible the benefit of doubt.

[CSAD]

John Delaney is to blame. Wasn?t the nations League his idea? And the only reason that England and France were second seeds was because of nations league.

The groups were basically self perpetuating - England were first seeds, they?d get a handy draw and would generally win the group and therefore they?d remain first seeds. Very occasionally they?d get a decent team in their group and struggle (see Croatia and Euro 2008) - but basically it was a consistent.

The nations league means that you had groups with, for example, all of Germany, England and Italy in the same group and you had some 3rd place teams being made second seeds for the euros.

It?s shaken things up much more which is both a good and a bad thing. The positive is you don?t get top sides with automatic qualification forever. The negative is, a side like ireland are essentially ****ed. Same with Ukraine in the group with England and Italy.

Meanwhile Norn Iron as 5th seed got this group:

Denmark
Finland
Slovenia
Kazakhstan
Northern Ireland
San Marino

Greece are probably as good as Finland - they certainly have better players anyway.

If you gave a playoff to the 3rd place teams, that?d be a decent solution, because then the groups of death have a reasonable alternate route.

Anyway - **** it. Rough day

You see 85-90% of things I can tolerate. England & France being in pot 2 I can live with

League C having play offs through gritted teeth I can accept

But Estonia having a play off because they finished ahead of Malta & San Marino is where I draw the line and say this is all ********.

You just knew once France or England were in pot 2 we were getting them, 20% chance and yet it happened

Would be nice if we defied the odds like this in a positive way for a change?

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Yeah ok - i see your point a bit, but Switzerland only beat Turkey over 90 mins at the Euro and Denmark despite having home advantage - struggled before beating Wales and the Czech's in the knockouts. We got 3 points in Qualifiers against SWI and DEN and it would be hard to see us do any better than that. I think NED and FRA are a lot stronger and a lot deeper squad wise making picking up points against them very difficult - I can see both having deep runs at the world cup as well, so both could be top 5 in the FIFA rankings come March.

It is a tough draw but we've got through tougher. These teams going deep into the world cup could be a big advantage. When we play them, their players will have had a long, hard season. That's even if we play them in March nevermind in the summer. We could be in a strong position after round 4. No one is expecting us to qualify and our position in the group after that is irrelevant. Basically it's a no pressure group with a free chance to have a go at it.

[CSAD]

What we need now if Gibraltar at home early.

Whatever challenge we have face we haven?t made it easy for ourselves as we usually have shot ourselves in both feet at the start

For me if we can even give ourselves a fair shout (and by that I mean be in with a realistic mathematic shot of qualifying by the halfway point) I would be happy

The good thing is there is no real banana skins as all of Greece,Netherlands & France will be tough and Gibraltar are too poor to be considered a banana skin. Banana skins are where we traditionally screw up so at least that won?t happen this time.

[Eirambler]

I would accept that if they were half decent in that group but in the end they were well short. Put it this way, if Slovenia were in Sweden?s position right now would you back them to finish ahead of Austria? No you wouldn?t.

It doesn?t really matter what we could dream of because at the end of the day they are the third best team in their group on paper and what form have we seen to say they would finish ahead of Austria? All the teams in Austria?s group would have won the NL group Sweden were relegated from?

Except 3 of those points were in a dead rubber against Bosnia when they were already promoted. The fact of the matter is there very little evidence to suggest Romania or Sweden would qualify ahead of the team currently in 2nd in their group unless you judge based on reputation or give the most negative outcome possible the benefit of doubt.

Actually I would have fancied Slovenia to take out Austria if that had been the draw. Anyway it isn't, and Sweden have good players and qualify for more tournaments than they miss. I fully expect them to qualify from that group.

Romania are not as good but have a weaker group. Israel are only where they are because Russia were kicked out, they were the second seed you wanted to draw. Mad that they were in the same pot as France.

And then there's Turkey against a Wales team in decline. We need Wales' older heads to pull out one more campaign for them because, other than maybe Brennan Johnson at a push, it turns out their much hyped younger players aren't up to much. That one's 50/50 at best.

[CSAD]

Actually I would have fancied Slovenia to take out Austria if that had been the draw. Anyway it isn't, and Sweden have good players and qualify for more tournaments than they miss. I fully expect them to qualify from that group.

Romania are not as good but have a weaker group. Israel are only where they are because Russia were kicked out, they were the second seed you wanted to draw. Mad that they were in the same pot as France.

And then there's Turkey against a Wales team in decline. We need Wales' older heads to pull out one more campaign for them because, other than maybe Brennan Johnson at a push, it turns out their much hyped younger players aren't up to much. That one's 50/50 at best.

They haven?t as good a team as Austria though, that?s the point. I would forgive that if Sweden had form on their side I would give them the benefit of doubt but that isn?t the case.

And right there you?ve proved my point. you?re backing them based on reputation, there is no evidence from Sweden to show they will pip Austria. Unless you are suggesting Sweden have top players and Austria don?t?

Possibly and in that case it?s probably more up in the air but even in Russia?s disqualification I saw more from Israel than Romania.

Possibly but Wales have turned into a side who are consistent able to do just enough to qualify weather be hook or by crook. A lot could hinge on the WC performance but over 10 games based on what I saw from them and Turkey I would give Wales the edge although it?s a close call.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Just looking back over our recent groups. We obviously came nowhere near Serbia and Portugal for the World Cup. We ran Switzerland and Denmark very close for Euro 2020. For World Cup 2018, we got a play off coming second behind Serbia, came ahead of Wales and Austria. For Euro 2016, we came a few points behind Poland and Germany, ahead of Scotland. World Cup 2014, we came 4th behind Germany, Sweden and Austria. 2012, we got a playoff coming just behind Russia. Same in World Cup 2010, got a playoff after coming behind Italy. 2008 was our worst until Kenny came along, finished 3rd, 10 points behind Germany and 12 behind Czech Republic.

So we've generally been competitive no matter who we've drawn and we have had some very tough draws. There's no reason why we shouldn't be competitive in this group either bar an incompetent management team.