Pretty sure it was for a Greek outfield player entering the box. There was nothing wrong with what the keeper did, as you mentioned.
Hungary > Slovakia , as evident in their their games against France and Germany in the Finals.Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Ah, that explains it. Cheers.
Out for a spell, got neglected, lay on the bench unselected.
Are we still 50/50 for the play off guys?
Will know more after tonight - though it's skewed now in that none of the Nations League finalists (Holland, Spain, Croatia and Italy) are qualifying by rights as it stands, in part because they have games in hand, having not played this window because of the Nations League finals.
i think 5 A teams are outside the top 2 at the moment. We can afford no more than 2 remaining outside the top 2. Is that right? ie, we need at least 2 A playoff spots to remain open aswe are the 6th ranked B team.
There's 6 teams outside the top two - Holland, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Denmark, and Wales.
Right now, there's seven teams below us qualifying by rights we're fifth in line for a playoff race - Denmark, Wales, Estonia, Slovenia, and then us. But within that, Estonia can only reach the A League playoff ahead of us (not the B or C League). So working out how many A League teams we can afford to not qualify gets tricky I think!
The idea that we can only have a max of two teams ranked below us qualifying seems to be holding solid still (as in the example above - seven teams below us currently qualifying, and we're fifth in line...7-5 = 2), so that may be the safer way to consider it.
Scotland v Georgia is going to be finished about 11:30pm after a huge rain delay, but we can still look at the playoff standings as they stand; that game is between the top two, who'll both still be in the qualifying spot at the end of tonight whatever the result.
The current playoffs are -
League A
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Holland
League B
Israel
Bosnia
Iceland
Norway
League C
Luxembourg
Azerbaijan
Kosovo
Bulgaria
There's currently seven League A teams not qualifying by rights - Poland lost 3-2 to Moldova tonight, meaning Albania are second instead - and eight sides ranked below us in the top two in their groups (Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Armenia, Albania, Kazakhstan, Romania and Slovakia). The League B playoffs now go down to Norway - next is Slovenia and then us - but bridging that gap isn't going to be easy, especially as part of the reason so few League A teams are in the top two as it stands is because they have games in hand, having played the Nations League this window. So we have to assume Denmark, Poland, Wales and Estonia are also ahead of us in the race as well as Slovenia. We're now sixth in line, and we still need to reduce the number of teams qualifying but ranked below us to 2. I think in order of likelihood, you're looking at -
Georgia are being outplayed by Scotland at the moment; they won't stay in second ahead of Spain and Norway. They still have to play Spain twice.
Armenia are a surprise, having beaten Wales and Latvia this window, but Croatia have a game in hand and you'd expect them to come top two instead, which suits us.
Albania are in second courtesy of Poland throwing away a 2-0 half-time lead in Moldova tonight to lose 3-2. That's a bad result for us, but Albania have at least already lost to Poland and are yet to play the Czechs (who also beat Poland), so there's time for Poland to recover yet.
Kazakhstan won in Belfast after some shocking defending from about 5/6 Nordy players - and with Denmark and Slovenia drawing, they now have a two-point gap to third. I think they'll fade away, but beating Denmark at home (again from 2-0 down) was a serious result and they need to be watched. They play group leaders Finland next.
Greece we know about - probably won't finish ahead of Holland, but they seem better than we'd thought and Holland seem weaker than we'd thought, so you never know.
Romania are another side who came from 2-0 down, this time scoring in the 89th and 90th minute in Switzerland to earn a draw. It keeps them a point ahead of Israel, who they haven't played yet. That's a huge game for us in September.
Turkey are a problem - they did beat Wales (who we need to qualify instead) and are now five points clear of them at the half-way point. Realistically Turkey have to be short odds to be one of the two teams we can allow to qualify.
Slovakia scraped past Liechtenstein tonight - but Bosnia, who we want to qualify, lost 2-0 at home to Luxembourg. That's a seven point gap after four games. Next up is Bosnia v Liechtenstein and Slovakia v Portugal, which you'd hope would help, but this isn't looking good at all.
So basically Turkey and Slovakia are looking very good to qualify, which means we can't have any other side ranked below us qualify if we want a playoff spot. But between Romania, Greece and Kazakhstan, the odds probably are one of them will do us out of the Euros.
So not looking good at the moment by my calculations unfortunately.
Looking at the tables, and still expecting the Group A sides to come good ie Holland, Denmark etc..
In my opinion, our play off hopes rest squarely with Isreal.. they have to get ahead of Romania, because Turkey are going to get out of Wales group.. and as said above, Slovakia look like they'll come out of the group with Bosnia/Iceland.. Frankly even if they don't, Luxembourg will
So it all hinges in my opinion on Isreal getting past Romania
We might have a bit of a chance in the playoff stakes again actually.
Turkey and Slovakia are the two who seem to be home and hosed. Slovakia only lost 1-0 to Portugal this round, but Bosnia (who we want to see qualify instead) scraped past Liechtenstein 2-1 at home and don't look like they have it in them to qualify. Turkey needed a late equaliser to draw at home to Armenia, but Wales - who we want to qualify instead, and who didn't play - are six points adrift with four games to go.
We can't allow anyone else who finished lower in the Nations League to qualify automatically. There were six others at the last update.
The good news is four of those have dropped out of the top two. Georgia lost 7-1 to Spain, Kazakhstan lost at home to Finland, Greece lost to Holland, and Armenia drew in Turkey, allowing Croatia to pass them.
There's now just two teams we need to drop out of the top two - Albania and Romania. Albania had a good draw away to the Czechs and stay ahead of Poland, and host them tomorrow. Huge game there (as mentioned elsewhere). And Romania held on for a 1-1 draw against Israel tonight, which keeps them in second but they're maybe wobbling a little. Three draws in a row now; Romania v Kosovo and Israel v Belarus (who drew against Andorra tonight) midweek. Had Romania won it'd have been close to all over for us
If those come off, then it would leave the League B draw as Bosnia, Iceland, Norway and Slovenia. League A would be Italy, Wales, Estonia and Ireland. I think as the last team to be selected from League B, we would form part of the League A playoffs (obviously UEFA want that to be as weak as possible to help any fallen big sides like Italy)
Italy had another Macedonia tonight, but host Ukraine in midweek; they're three points behind with a match in hand. Ukraine are a League B side so if they end third in the group, we'd be in the League A playoffs with Wales, Estonia and Slovenia. That could be worse.
Big games this week then I think are Albania v Poland on Sunday, and Romania v Kosovo/Israel v Belarus on Tuesday. Results for the North in Kazakhstan and Croatia in Armenia would be welcome. We also don't want Greece to come ahead of Holland, so a defeat for us against the Dutch would actually not be a bad result, with Greece facing Gibraltar the same day.
Last edited by pineapple stu; 09/09/2023 at 9:43 PM.
Kenny been playing 4d chess all this time.
Been saying all along, our chances hinge on Isreal, because no more than two who finished below us, can qualify automatically or we're out
Slovakia and Turkey look good.. because I can't see Wales getting back into it
Of course, if Italy fall asunder, we're screwed anyway
It's potentially going to be bonkers, that we could finish 4th in the group.. and still end up in an eminently winnable play off with Wales, Estonia and Slovenia..
The importance of the Nations League is going to have to be highlighted even more in the future.. the loss away to Armenia cost us a place higher than Slovenia and could be the difference between a play off or not
Finish 2nd in the NL are you're as good as certain you'll always get a play off spot
And he knew not to do too well in the Nations League too, so we could get the easier League A playoff!Kenny been playing 4d chess all this time.
A disguised genius. We could win the whole Euros yet!
Pretty much guaranteed ! ! !
Albania 2-0 Poland is a disaster of a result for us tonight. Albania are now four points clear of Poland with three games to go, and have to play the Faroes at home, Moldova away, and the Czechs at home. So they can afford to lose to the Czechs in October if they win both their November games, and if we assume Bosnia and Wales aren't getting top two, that's our playoff chances gone I think.
We don't deserve a playoff. I'm losing interest in what others do.
A joke of a system if we stumble into a playoff after potentially losing six games and maybe just beating Gibraltar home and away in eight games. Yeah a very tough group, but UEFA need to address that.
I recall very good Irish teams with top talent being robbed out of playing in the biggest competitions through genuine bad luck or dodgy refereeing at a time when only a few got through.
I bear no ill feeling towards Kenny, but he has to go and we can make a plan to have a go at qualifying for WC 2026 but more likely build a group to ensure we get to Euro 2028. We have some very good talent. A lot of it will fall by the wayside for various reasons, but enough will come through to make us a decent team in the coming years. Carsley seems to be the most likely but I'm sure there's a few very credible options out there across Europe.
Koeman was a magnificent player but is a mediocre manager. Still, the football knowledge in that man and the respect I'm sure he has from the Dutch team for who he is. Those Irish lads may like Kenny as a man, but they must doubt his credibility. You could see after a good first half, he let the game get beyond him. He is a good man out of his depth, but who is getting backed in a way no others would. Time to go and give us a fighting chance and build momentum with a young team in the coming years.
My brain aches trying to keep on top of this.
We could conceivably get one of 8 playoff spots: One of 4 path B playoff spots if we’re one of the best NL B teams not to qualify and any A playoff spot made free by all the A teams qualifying.
Right now 3 A teams are outside top 2 in normal qualifying so will need a path A playoff spot, so right now only 1 is “spare”.
Right now the NL B teams that are not qualifying based on current group position are Israel (3rd), Bosnia (4th), Finland (3rd) , Iceland (5th), Norway 3rd), Ireland (4th), Montenegro (3rd), Sweden (3rd), Armenia (3rd). These are all looking for a B play off spot.
Teams ranked below us in NL who are occupying an automatic spot are: Albania (looking good) and Romania (might be overhauled by Israel).
So right now there are 5 A and B playoff spots available (1 A and 4 Bs) and we are 6th in line.
What might change?
Group A – nothing can happen that is to our advantage
Group B – nothing can happen that is to our advantage?
Group C – Italy overtaking Ukraine makes an extra A spot available but reduces a B spot
Group D – We could really do with both Wales and Croatia qualifying (unlikely), otherwise an A playoff spot will be unavailable for us; if both qualify we are higher ranked than Turkey and Armenia, so that’s good
Group E - Hard to see any change - one of Czech Rep and Poland will now need an A play off spot
Group F - We need to hope Sweden don’t improve on current 3rd place. They play Austria (2nd) at home tomorrow!
Group G – We need to hope Montenegro don’t improve from current 3rd. With away matches in Serbia and Hungary this is unlikely
Group H – Nothing can happen here that is to our advantage. Whichever team is 3rd will take a playoff spot away from us.
Group I – Israel overtaking Romania into second will free up a B playoff spot for us
So as things stand, Israel leapfrogging Romania is about the only thing that can get us a playoff - probably a A playoff? – and Sweden remain a risk.
You're missing Estonia there - the League D winners get first dibs on a League A playoff spot in the event that fewer than four League A sides reach the playoffs.
So it means one more team ahead of us than in your calculations.
We need two from Turkey, Slovakia, Albania and Romania to be replaced by (specifically) Wales, Bosnia, Poland and Israel.
Ah, I was wondering where Estonia was coming from in the earlier posts. Thx.
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