UEFA Euro 2028

[pineapple stu]

Also, if I'm reading it correctly, it looks like the Nations League playoff spots will be primarily for group winners this time around. So we likely would have been better to have been relegated from the B division to the C division in terms of getting a playoff place if that element of the qualification system has been changed in that way.

Is that not the same as before though? NL group winners were given first dibs, but if they'd qualified then the spots moved down the NL groups. So we didn't get in despite third place in the NL, while three of the four League C group winners got in (Turkey having qualified by rights)

[Eirambler]

just to note that 20 teams qualify automatically - 12 group runners and the 8 best runners up. so we need two of england, wales and scotland to finish as group winners or one of the best 8 runners up, should we fail to get the business done ourselves.

i am not clear what happens if the above criteria is met but we end up in a playoff and lose. i guess we still get in.

If the above criteria are met we wouldn't play in the playoffs. If England plus one more host qualifies directly, then the other two hosts are granted qualification and other teams contest the playoffs.

[Eirambler]

Is that not the same as before though? NL group winners were given first dibs, but if they'd qualified then the spots moved down the NL groups. So we didn't get in despite third place in the NL, while three of the four League C group winners got in (Turkey having qualified by rights)

Kind of, but there were three or four playoffs qualification places to be won and the playoffs were broken up by division. So if all the B group winners qualified automatically then all the B group second placed teams would get a playoff. My reading is that those places would now go to a Group C or D winner before they'd go to a Group B second placed team, as there won't be any League C playoff path as such this time around.

For us to be in a playoff that would mean that only England of the hosts have qualified automatically, and then Wales and Scotland have been given the two host spots because they've failed to qualify automatically but have done better than us in the groups.

In that case there would only be two playoff qualification places left to be won for everyone else, as Wales and Scotland would have already taken two of them, so it would likely only be group winners that would get a playoff place. So in that case we'd likely need to have won our Nations League B group to even get in to the playoffs.

[sbgawa]

Does this mean the pubs around Dublin will be chearing on ENGERLAND

[Eirambler]

Not really, as England qualifying is more or less a given (though if they don't we have real problems).

The question is more whether we want Wales and Scotland to do well or do poorly? That really depends.

In one sense we want them to do well because if one of them qualifies them they'll take us with them (and vice versa).

On the other hand, if none of them qualify automatically we want them to do badly as we would get one of the two host spots by performing better than them in the groups.

So it's probably the case that if they start badly we will want them to continue to do badly so that they're ranked worse than us. But if they start strongly, like Scotland did in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, we may just want them to continue strongly and go ahead and qualify automatically.

[pineapple stu]

Kind of, but there were three or four playoffs qualification places to be won and the playoffs were broken up by division. So if all the B group winners qualified automatically then all the B group second placed teams would get a playoff. My reading is that those places would now go to a Group C or D winner before they'd go to a Group B second placed team, as there won't be any League C playoff path as such this time around.

For us to be in a playoff that would mean that only England of the hosts have qualified automatically, and then Wales and Scotland have been given the two host spots because they've failed to qualify automatically but have done better than us in the groups.

In that case there would only be two playoff qualification places left to be won for everyone else, as Wales and Scotland would have already taken two of them, so it would likely only be group winners that would get a playoff place. So in that case we'd likely need to have won our Nations League B group to even get in to the playoffs.

Ah - yeah, if there's half the number of qualification spots from the play-off, then that would impact alright.

[Eirambler]

It also needs to be clarified what "best ranked" means in terms of deciding who gets the two host places if none of Ireland, Scotland or Wales qualify automatically.

If it's based on the Nations League that's bad news as Wales will be in the A division so we can't be ranked ahead of them. If it's based on FIFA rankings that's even worse as we're currently behind the other two by a distance. We will need to hope it's based on performance in the Euro 2028 qualification groups, which would seem the fairest way to decide it. But it hasn't been clarified in the press release.

[Eirambler]

Looking at our current standing in the game, qualification for our home Euros is becoming less and less certain as time goes on and we fail to improve.

We really are reliant on one of Scotland and Wales either winning their qualification group (unlikely) or being one of the eight best ranked second places teams (slightly less unlikely, but far from guaranteed).

But will those two teams really have any huge incentive to chase auto qualification when all they actually have to do is not being as useless as us and they'll qualify anyway? Right now, they have us as a safety net, whereas we don't really have a safety net. Yet our association and football media keep talking as though qualification is assured, even the few good Irish football journalists seem oblivious to the potential problem here.

Not even competing at our home Euros would arguably be the FAIs biggest ever embarrassment, and that's not exactly a low bar to clear.