LOI in Europe 2022

[pineapple stu]

YStill think getting to 2.000 would be a good step forward for the league - our three year average as it stands is over 2 - over 5 years if we could get to approx. 10.000 as a country that would bring us to roughly 33nd place.

But if other countries are also getting a coefficient boost, then the 10.000 mark is going to drop over the next three years.

Though there is going to be an accordion affect too to an extent in that leagues that skip QR1 (from 42 up currently, with 30 up getting two byes) will be losing out on coefficient points but that doesn't mean they're weaker

[Asterix]

In the Europa League playoff draw tomorrow Rovers/Shkupi will be drawn against either a priority 1 team:

KAA Gent (BEL)
FK Austria Wien (AUT)
Heart of Midlothian FC (SCO)
Sivasspor (TUR)
Dnipro-1 (UKR)
Silkeborg IF (DEN)

or a priority 2 team which is the losers of one of:

PFC Ludogorets 1945 (BUL)/GNK Dinamo (CRO)
FK Crvena zvezda (SRB)/FC Pyunik (ARM)
FC Sheriff Tiraspol (MDA)/FC Viktoria Plzeň (CZE)
Qarabağ FK (AZE)/Ferencvárosi TC (HUN)
FK Bodø/Glimt (NOR)/FK Žalgiris Vilnius (LTU)
Maccabi Haifa FC (ISR)/Apollon Limassol FC (CYP)



For the Conference it will be the winners of one of:

Víkingur Reykjavík (ISL)/KKS Lech Poznań (POL)
RFS (LVA)/Hibernians FC (MLT)
Ballkani (KOS)/KÍ Klaksvík (FRO)
HŠK Zrinjski (BIH)/FC Tobol Kostanay (KAZ)
FC Shakhtyor Soligorsk (BLR)/CFR 1907 Cluj (ROU)

[ontheotherhand]

I'm happy to hear arguments to the contrary, but when you ignore the fact that Dundalk's most recent Euro qualification wouldn't have happened because (a) they wouldn't have dropped into the EL and (b) the draw they got (Andorra, Moldova, Faroes) was almost uniquely lucky, then it's hard to feel your point has value.

Similarly, Drogheda might have made the groups in 2008 but transfer to the EL wasn't a thing for them, even after winning a round. Or Rovers can reach the groups this year by beating a Maltese and a North Macedonian team; in 2008, Bohs lost to an Austrian team (narrowly) but had no second (or even third) bite at the cherry.

Like it or not, this impacts on the comparison of Euro performances between the 00s and the 10s, and is why I'd value the rankings - even though not perfect - over the number of times we've achieved something that is now demonstrably easier to achieve.

If lower European teams have caught up on us significantly as you suggest, then that's the same as saying we've gone backwards (relatively speaking).

Not necessarily. We could be completely stagnant at the same level! Just because other glasses have been topped up a bit doesn't mean our own can't be sitting half empty all these years.

The FAI and league as a whole should still benchmark against other leagues. We agree there. We obviously disagree on the leagues relative strength versus itself over time. I think we are seeing a better style of football lately with some really good players scattered around. We had the standout good players before but I think the overall product is better now than it was. It's changed so much though both in terms of the type of player and manager in the league. Would Rovers or Dundalk's championship winning team beat the teams from the 2000s? I wouldn't write them off doing so. Would you?

[yurt]

But if other countries are also getting a coefficient boost, then the 10.000 mark is going to drop over the next three years.

Though there is going to be an accordion affect too to an extent in that leagues that skip QR1 (from 42 up currently, with 30 up getting two byes) will be losing out on coefficient points but that doesn't mean they're weaker

Yeah I agree. It looks like 15.000+ is going to be what is needed to be top 30 within a few years of this format. (20/21 only had one leg games which has thrown the cycle of this format a little bit).

Looking at the table for last year in isolation (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/ccoef2022.html), 2.875 had us in 32nd, 2.000 would have only placed 38th and Bulgaria in 30th place had 3.375.

Extrapolating this for the next 5 years and account a little for lower leagues finding it easier to pick up points, I think it's fair to estimate 30th place will be in and around the 15.000 mark by 25/26 which is about the minimum time frame we could realistically expect to be near there.

[legendz]

Rte are looking for some form of award for showing the match. It's carried on radio sports news bulletins (Radio One and 2fm), it's rolling on their news channel and Declan McBennett has tweeted about it.

Virgin Media have the rights to the Europa League and Conference League. They should the one's coming under scrutiny. VM Three could be utilised to show LoI qualification rounds.

[pineapple stu]

Would Rovers or Dundalk's championship winning team beat the teams from the 2000s? I wouldn't write them off doing so. Would you?

Wouldn't write them off for sure. Stephen Kenny's Dundalk are I think the best LoI side I've seen, and while I don't think this Rovers team are as good, they're not bad either (though so need to prove themselves in Europe I think)

Though I suppose it links into another point in comparing strength - the champions of the 00s were generally pushed a lot more than the champions lately. There's typically a 10 point gap back to second and often 20 back to third these days. We haven't really had a title race worthy of the name in a few years, and we don't have the variety of clubs capable of winning the league as we did ten or so years ago.

I might do up some quick stats on that later to chart that and see if it isn't just me mis-remembering! But that'd point to a lack of depth in quality behind the champions

[A N Mouse]

If you just multiply the Points per year by 4 you get the total. I think people here are more familiar with the average number so put that in.

That's not strictly true true. 4 teams (in contributing comps) came in round about 2009/10, and one year we had five teams compete. The total gives more accurate reflection of matches won/drawn, while the co-efficient value show what we got - effort vs reward

I'd have to create a data set with the 30th and 40th team each year - will take a while - I'm not sure what you would get out of it though - average 30th is roughly 11-12 points - 40th is probably 7-8 ish?

It's the change over time. I'm fairly sure those values are higher now than 1998/99. Interested if can see the effect of competition changes on the values. Three to four teams, prelim rounds, back to three comps, second/third chances for some etc.

It's all well and good saying we were ranked 30th once. If that was during 3 teams and (for sake of argument) required 6 coefficient points, which could be achieved by one team getting through two rounds and one of the others winning a dead rubber. And now it's 10 points, which for 4 teams is each team winning a tie home and away, or one team going through 3 rounds, and a couple of dead rubbers

[pineapple stu]

Good point on the change to 4 teams - happened later than I thought, in 2009 as you say

For what it's worth, when we were 29th (in 2010), that was four years of three teams and one of four teams (as indeed it was for everyone around our level)and we had 9.541 points (and then a big gap of 2.000 to 28th). Ten years later (ie 2020) 29th was 16.645 - obviously an extra team means extra points, but also extra bites at the cherry and now extra group spots

[ontheotherhand]

Wouldn't write them off for sure. Stephen Kenny's Dundalk are I think the best LoI side I've seen, and while I don't think this Rovers team are as good, they're not bad either (though so need to prove themselves in Europe I think)

Though I suppose it links into another point in comparing strength - the champions of the 00s were generally pushed a lot more than the champions lately. There's typically a 10 point gap back to second and often 20 back to third these days. We haven't really had a title race worthy of the name in a few years, and we don't have the variety of clubs capable of winning the league as we did ten or so years ago.

I might do up some quick stats on that later to chart that and see if it isn't just me mis-remembering! But that'd point to a lack of depth in quality behind the champions

That's probably fair yeah. It might be just us remember the good battles between sides and not the walkovers but it feels right. We've tended to have strong champions with a big gap between them and the middle of the pack more recently. I do think it's a bit better the past few seasons but that's probably just because that Dundalk side were so good. Now we have Rovers who are a good side and absolutely the best in the league but they can be beaten on any given Friday by anybody really and the top 3 in particular have reasonably comparable best 11s.

[ontheotherhand]

A casual glance, just looking at the league winners early in the 2000s and late in the 2000s (who unfortunately were Bohs) might tell us something. They narrowly won their 2002/2003 titles with a fairly competitive chasing pack both years but ran away with the 2008 title and although it got closer again in 2009 at the very top, the gap to 3rd was still fairly large.

[pateen]

Rte are looking for some form of award for showing the match. It's carried on radio sports news bulletins (Radio One and 2fm), it's rolling on their news channel and Declan McBennett has tweeted about it.

Good to see them actually promote it

[pateen]

Dont think so Pateen unless its on loi tv perhaps?

Cheers Martinho.
That's a balls, not on Premier Sports either.

Maybe Norwegian TV might carry it.

[redobit]

The problem is that Sligo is a small town of 20,000 people, with no larger town within a two hour radius either. Spending a lot doing up their stadium to a standard required just for Europe wouldn't make much sense, and would be a white elephant really. Especially as qualifying for Europe is still a fairly rare event for Sligo. Surely a better option would be a decent stadium in a much larger place like Galway or Derry that Sligo could access on the very rare occasions that they get to a 3rd round stage in Europe ? 4-5,000 seats is about the max that Sligo could feasibly justify, and they just don;t need loads of car parking, high-end media facilities etc.

Haha. This made me laugh.

What a load of horse manure. Thanks for pointing out our 'problems' to us. I'm sure it wasn't meant but it is the condescending tripe that Sligo Rovers fans hear fairly regularly. There is an attitude out there that Sligo Rovers should almost know there place.

Well funk that. Sligo Rovers set our own standards and will raise our own bar. Why shouldn't we have the best of the best. Its our club and we strive to be the best club in the league, on and off the pitch.

Btw, the masterplan is for a 6000 seater Category 3 stadium and Ive no doubt we will achieve it. Cat 3 floodlights being installed soon and planning & construction drawings currently being compiled.

[Real ale Madrid]

That's not strictly true true. 4 teams (in contributing comps) came in round about 2009/10, and one year we had five teams compete. The total gives more accurate reflection of matches won/drawn, while the co-efficient value show what we got - effort vs reward



It's the change over time. I'm fairly sure those values are higher now than 1998/99. Interested if can see the effect of competition changes on the values. Three to four teams, prelim rounds, back to three comps, second/third chances for some etc.

It's all well and good saying we were ranked 30th once. If that was during 3 teams and (for sake of argument) required 6 coefficient points, which could be achieved by one team getting through two rounds and one of the others winning a dead rubber. And now it's 10 points, which for 4 teams is each team winning a tie home and away, or one team going through 3 rounds, and a couple of dead rubbers

Fair enough - i'll have a look.

[pineapple stu]

Btw, the masterplan is for a 6000 seater Category 3 stadium and Ive no doubt we will achieve it.

Ye're surely close enough to it now that there'd be no reason not to go for that, no?

Europe aside, our grounds are generally crap and any moderate improvements have to be welcome

[pineapple stu]

To add to the info on Rovers' pot, Pat's and Sligo can get -

St Pat’s
Brondby IF (Denmark) or FC Basel (Switzerland)
Breidablik (Iceland) or Istanbul Basaksehir (Turkey)
FC Kyzylshar (Kazhkstan) or APOEL (Cyprus)
Fiorentina (Italy)


Sligo Rovers
Neftçi (Azerbaijan) or Rapid Vienna (Austria)
Villarreal (Spain)
Dunajska Streda (Slovakia) or Fotbal Club FCSB (Romania)
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel) or Aris Thessaloniki (Greece)

It's hard to see how to get past any of those, unless the Icelandics fluke their way through

[Nah Nah Nah Nah]

Cheers Martinho.
That's a balls, not on Premier Sports either.

Maybe Norwegian TV might carry it.

Its being broadcast alright. Not sure if it’s free or what the story is with it mind.

[EatYerGreens]

Nobody ever watches RTE News Now otherwise so they have to make people aware somehow.

My mother has it on in the kitchen constantly. I know rolling news is inheretly fairly repetitive, but RTE News is literally the same thing shown every hour.

[A N Mouse]

Good point on the change to 4 teams - happened later than I thought, in 2009 as you say

For what it's worth, when we were 29th (in 2010), that was four years of three teams and one of four teams (as indeed it was for everyone around our level)and we had 9.541 points (and then a big gap of 2.000 to 28th). Ten years later (ie 2020) 29th was 16.645 - obviously an extra team means extra points, but also extra bites at the cherry and now extra group spots

To put that into context if we take the year earlier 2008/09 (just so all seasons had 3 teams). We were 30th with 9.499, and in 2018/19 30th had 15.625.

If you divide each by 5 then find out what kind of results need to average to stand still. (9.499/5) 1.899, between three teams, would need 5 wins and a draw.
And (15.625/5) 3.125, between four teams, is 12 wins and a draw.

So far this year we've played 12 matches, won 5 drew 3
Last year played 20, won 10 drew 3 - for 11.5 divided by 4 teams 2.875, best since 2006/07 when played 14, won 6, drew 4 should be 8 but 8.5 (cos final round scored more) divide by 3 for 2.833.

[EatYerGreens]

Haha. This made me laugh.

What a load of horse manure. Thanks for pointing out our 'problems' to us. I'm sure it wasn't meant but it is the condescending tripe that Sligo Rovers fans hear fairly regularly. There is an attitude out there that Sligo Rovers should almost know there place.

Well funk that. Sligo Rovers set our own standards and will raise our own bar. Why shouldn't we have the best of the best. Its our club and we strive to be the best club in the league, on and off the pitch.

Btw, the masterplan is for a 6000 seater Category 3 stadium and Ive no doubt we will achieve it. Cat 3 floodlights being installed soon and planning & construction drawings currently being compiled.

Stop being such an insecure princess/snowflake. I'm doing my degree in Sligo (ATU), so know the town and club very well.