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Thread: Third Tier Talk - A Championship Mk II

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954 View Post
    Monaghan United aren't defunct. They're playing in the Ulster Senior League now.

    They're almost certainly targeting the third tier, and I'd wager the likes of Letterkenny Rovers and Cockhill Celtic may just look to step in there too.
    Haven't Fanad United dropped down a level - which would rule them out of something like this ?

    Cockhill Celtic could really do with a new name if they intend to play in a nationwide league structure.

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    Seasoned Pro legendz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiki Balboa View Post
    I also love speculating about new teams in the league, and what the Third Tier would be comprised of. Here is a list of former LOI related teams. My guess (if the Third Tier does happen) it will be comprised of most likely these teams/areas.[U][B]
    Given that Kerry are at U19 level, Kerry do appear to be next in line. As mentioned in another thread, there is potentially an opportunity for Kerry to take the vacant spot in the First Division.
    Cavan/Monaghan FC, Klub Kildare FC and Carlow Kilkenny FC at U17 level would probably be next in line for an Intermediary League, in a few years.
    Regards third level institutions, Kerry in partnership with Munster Technological University - Tralee and Kildare having a partnership with Maynooth University might be the best approach for both.
    https://foot.ie/forums/117-Kerry-FC
    A Championship: 4 years - 8 first teams - 0 financially ruined. First Division '14: 7 first teams.
    Opportunity lost for new clubs/regions to join the LoI family.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    Haven't Fanad United dropped down a level - which would rule them out of something like this ?

    Cockhill Celtic could really do with a new name if they intend to play in a nationwide league structure.
    Yeah Fanad and Swilly Rovers have dropped out in recent seasons and they’d have been 2 of the mainstays of the league.

    Bonagee seem to be the main challenger to Cockhill who’ve won it 10 times in a row!

    I do find it funny that Letterkeny Rovers would be talked of making a step up when they haven’t even won the USL in over a decade,always seemed to be happy enough playing at that level but maybe I’m wrong….

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    I am wondering would timing be right to have a third midlands team ie the likes of Mullingar Town who did try to join the first division wot 21 years ago?
    Gary Cronin is he the right man to manage Longford Town?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinho II View Post
    I am wondering would timing be right to have a third midlands team ie the likes of Mullingar Town who did try to join the first division wot 21 years ago?
    Have they shown an interest in joining the youth leagues?

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/socce...-26078551.html
    https://foot.ie/forums/117-Kerry-FC
    A Championship: 4 years - 8 first teams - 0 financially ruined. First Division '14: 7 first teams.
    Opportunity lost for new clubs/regions to join the LoI family.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinho II View Post
    I am wondering would timing be right to have a third midlands team ie the likes of Mullingar Town who did try to join the first division wot 21 years ago?
    Mullingar could probably make a decent go at an LOI team (or at least, no worse a go than most others). However - there would need to be a club there keen to make the leap. And since the crash killed off the Celtic Tiger-era bunfight within the town over who would get to play LOI (Athletic vs Town) it all seems to have gone a bit quiet there re league ambitions.

    If you accept that football is primarily an urban sport, and focus on the fact that Ireland is seeking rapid growth in its main urban areas/regional centres, then that means the places that should have the future populations to comfortably sustain viable, professional LOI clubs are :

    1) The 5 cities (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Waterford).
    - They've been given a target of 50-55% population growth by 2040 (except Dublin).
    2) The 3 Regional Growth Centres (Athlone, Letterkenny, Sligo).
    - Have been given a target of 40% population growth by 2040.

    There was previously talk in the middle of the last decade about having a much bigger 'ATM' (Athlone, Tullamore, Mullingar) Midlands growth centre, but that has been abandoned in favour of a more concentrated focus upon Athlone instead.

    Therefore - of the 8 towns and cities that the State has identified for future population growth to be concentrated within, 7 already have at least one LOI team. The outlier in there is Letterkenny (population 20,000). It obviously has a club located just 23kms away in Ballybofey (combined population with Stranorlar of almost 5,000). But Ballybofey-Stranorlar is only the 3rd biggest population centre in Donegal (Buncrana near Derry is the second with approaching 7,000 people, and likely to remain in 2nd place for the foreseeable future). I've long been of the view that Letterkenny is a better long-term prospect for a viable LOI club than Ballybofey is - purely on the basis of its current and future size. The cost of running an LOI club will continually rise IMO, as more clubs become professional, wages etc increase. Harps have done an amazing job to be viable at Premier Division level in such a small town, but there are only so many rabbits you can keep pulling out of the same hat. I appreciate that Nigel and others won't agree, but for me the most viable long-term location for a professional, competitive football club in Donegal is in its largest popualtion centre = Letterkenny. Ballybofey may only be 23kms away from Letterkenny - but then so is Derry. So those looking for an LOI club to support in Donegal's largest town and its environs could find themselves just as easily tempted over the border to a club that is likely to be significantly more successful than they are to Finn Harps. Especially as Donegal's second largest town (Buncrana) is the same distance from Derry as Letterkenny is, and realistically is already Derry City territory. Plus the governments north and south of the border are creating a joint 'North West City Region' identity between Letterkenny, Derry and the space in-between - which will diminish any inherent notion of rejecting Derry in favour of a fellow Donegal club, and will draw Letterkenny closer to Derry's orbit over time.
    Last edited by EatYerGreens; 05/06/2022 at 4:42 PM.

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  9. #207
    Capped Player nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sidewayspasser View Post
    What would be left of the USL then?
    USL is long dead at this stage. There's only four senior teams in it, and Harps/Derry reserves propping it up to six teams.

    Monaghan United are using it as a stepping stone back to senior football currently.

    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    Haven't Fanad United dropped down a level - which would rule them out of something like this ?

    Cockhill Celtic could really do with a new name if they intend to play in a nationwide league structure.
    Fanad are a shadow of the club they once were. They're in the Donegal League, just promoted back to the Premier Division there after winning the second tier, but the standard in junior football in Donegal is pretty poor at the minute. I don't see them ever having ambitions to get back to the level they were at when they competed in the A Championship.

    As for Cockhill Celtic, it's the name of the area they're from. They're just outside of Buncrana, have a decent enough setup, and I'd doubt if they'd change anything. Unless they managed to scramble together some sort of Inishowen side playing out of Maginn Park, I wouldn't see an alternative, and they're a fairly ambitious side.

    Quote Originally Posted by joey B View Post
    Yeah Fanad and Swilly Rovers have dropped out in recent seasons and they’d have been 2 of the mainstays of the league.

    Bonagee seem to be the main challenger to Cockhill who’ve won it 10 times in a row!

    I do find it funny that Letterkeny Rovers would be talked of making a step up when they haven’t even won the USL in over a decade,always seemed to be happy enough playing at that level but maybe I’m wrong….
    Cockhill have done 9 in a row now, I think. Going for ten next year, and Bonagee indeed their closest challengers.

    Letterkenny, simply put, have more going for them. They're putting together a handy ground. They're in the middle of Letterkenny town. They have a chance to grow a side there in a town of 20,000 people. It's no secret they've harboured ambitions of stepping up to LOI in the past. They played in the Under-21 league back 10/15 years ago and I'd wager they'd step into the league in a heartbeat if a North/South third tier opened up.

    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    Therefore - of the 8 towns and cities that the State has identified for future population growth to be concentrated within, 7 already have at least one LOI team. The outlier in there is Letterkenny (population 20,000). It obviously has a club located just 23kms away in Ballybofey (combined population with Stranorlar of almost 5,000). But Ballybofey-Stranorlar is only the 3rd biggest population centre in Donegal (Buncrana near Derry is the second with approaching 7,000 people, and likely to remain in 2nd place for the foreseeable future). I've long been of the view that Letterkenny is a better long-term prospect for a viable LOI club than Ballybofey is - purely on the basis of its current and future size. The cost of running an LOI club will continually rise IMO, as more clubs become professional, wages etc increase. Harps have done an amazing job to be viable at Premier Division level in such a small town, but there are only so many rabbits you can keep pulling out of the same hat. I appreciate that Nigel and others won't agree, but for me the most viable long-term location for a professional, competitive football club in Donegal is in its largest popualtion centre = Letterkenny. Ballybofey may only be 23kms away from Letterkenny - but then so is Derry. So those looking for an LOI club to support in Donegal's largest town and its environs could find themselves just as easily tempted over the border to a club that is likely to be significantly more successful than they are to Finn Harps. Especially as Donegal's second largest town (Buncrana) is the same distance from Derry as Letterkenny is, and realistically is already Derry City territory. Plus the governments north and south of the border are creating a joint 'North West City Region' identity between Letterkenny, Derry and the space in-between - which will diminish any inherent notion of rejecting Derry in favour of a fellow Donegal club, and will draw Letterkenny closer to Derry's orbit over time.
    A lot of this simply suggests Finn Harps to be a side representative of Ballybofey/Stranorlar, when the truth couldn't be further away really. You'd actually find the majority of Harps support comes from outside the twin towns, and it's more a representative side of the county, and tipping into parts of Tyrone.

    A fair few parts of Donegal would split support between Derry and Harps, but again, probably wrong in the assumption with Buncrana. It's a far stronger Harps supporting town than it is Derry. I'm sure the like of Mr.A will back me up on that one too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954 View Post
    A lot of this simply suggests Finn Harps to be a side representative of Ballybofey/Stranorlar, when the truth couldn't be further away really. You'd actually find the majority of Harps support comes from outside the twin towns, and it's more a representative side of the county, and tipping into parts of Tyrone.

    A fair few parts of Donegal would split support between Derry and Harps, but again, probably wrong in the assumption with Buncrana. It's a far stronger Harps supporting town than it is Derry. I'm sure the like of Mr.A will back me up on that one too.
    You're essentially making my point for me here.

    Harps obviously draw support from a broader area, as there is no way they get 1-2,000 people purely from a twin-town of only 5,000. But there would be little to stop those people transferring allegiances to another more local team in the future (e.g. Letterkenny Rovers, Strabane Athletic), satisfying their interest in senior football through a stronger and more local identification. And that is the problem for a club in a small town like Harps. A lot of the support is essentially borrowed from elsewhere, including bigger places with no team of their own. A team in Letterkenny would have a much bigger pool to create localised support within, and also compete with Harps for broader Donegal support. And they'd have the population, local businesses etc to presumably be more successful over time. You can easily envisage a situation whereby a Letterkenny team usurp Harps in the LOI. Especially if the new university there starts offering scholarships etc.

    As the old saying goes, demographics is destiny.
    Last edited by EatYerGreens; 05/06/2022 at 8:09 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    You're essentially making my point for me here.

    Harps obviously draw support from a broader area, as there is no way they get 1-2,000 people purely from a twin-town of only 5,000. But there would be little to stop those people transferring allegiances to another more local team in the future (e.g. Letterkenny Rovers, Strabane Athletic), satisfying their interest in senior football through a stronger and more local identification. And that is the problem for a club in a small town like Harps. A lot of the support is essentially borrowed from elsewhere, including bigger places with no team of their own. A team in Letterkenny would have a much bigger pool to create localised support within, and also compete with Harps for broader Donegal support. And they'd have the population, local businesses etc to presumably be more successful over time. You can easily envisage a situation whereby a Letterkenny team usurp Harps in the LOI. Especially if the new university there starts offering scholarships etc.

    As the old saying goes, demographics is destiny.
    People transferring their allegiances to a new club that opens up is a bit of a stretch tbh. It never occurred to me when my local club cabo joined the loi to change my support for shamrock rovers ��

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    Quote Originally Posted by sbgawa View Post
    People transferring their allegiances to a new club that opens up is a bit of a stretch tbh. It never occurred to me when my local club cabo joined the loi to change my support for shamrock rovers ��
    It depends on the situation. I go to the Markets Field. If Kerry FC join the First Division, I'll be going to Mounthawk Park.
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    A Championship: 4 years - 8 first teams - 0 financially ruined. First Division '14: 7 first teams.
    Opportunity lost for new clubs/regions to join the LoI family.

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    Similarly I live in Cork now and while I toddle along to Turners Cross when it's convenient CCFC are not now and never will be my team. 'New' fans in Letterkenny might well follow the hypothetical new club but a good chunk of people with an interest will already be committed Harps fans and there's a good chance plenty of their progeny will effective be grandfathered into trips to Finn Park too when the time comes.

    It might hinder Harps potential for expansion a bit but I'm not sure they'd regress significantly.

    I don't know that Legendz example is really comparable either, he seems to managed to avoid picking up even a shred of affinity for the succession of Limerick entities in the LOI and the distance is a bit more of a factor than the Donegal example too, no?

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    Quote Originally Posted by legendz View Post
    It depends on the situation. I go to the Markets Field. If Kerry FC join the First Division, I'll be going to Mounthawk Park.
    Exactly. Dublin is Dublin, and local allegiances there usually aren't as well-defined or rigid as they are elsewhere.

    If someone in Letterkenny is into watching senior football, Harps or Derry are their only options currently . It's perfectly feasible to see a situation where if a Letterkenny team joined the league that those from the town who currently go elsewhere would have at least some interest in watching a team on their doorstep. Some obviously wouldn't and would continue with Harps, but many would either switch allegiances or try to watch a bit of both teams for at least a bit. And over time instead of young people there looking beyond the town for football, they'd instead just go local (new people from Letterkenny attracted to the league are much more likely to have an affinity with a local team). So you can see how over time it would result in change in where support for Harps (or Derry) comes from. And as a small town with a lot of borrowed support, shrinking the Harps catchment area in that way would hve a bigger impact than it would on a much larger town which can generate and sustain more support locally.

    You just can't compare inner-city Dublin neighbourhoods to what happens re different regional towns. And Harps are hardly on a par with Rovers either in terms of success, scale etc.
    Last edited by EatYerGreens; 05/06/2022 at 9:40 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sadloserkid View Post
    Similarly I live in Cork now and while I toddle along to Turners Cross when it's convenient CCFC are not now and never will be my team. 'New' fans in Letterkenny might well follow the hypothetical new club but a good chunk of people with an interest will already be committed Harps fans and there's a good chance plenty of their progeny will effective be grandfathered into trips to Finn Park too when the time comes.

    It might hinder Harps potential for expansion a bit but I'm not sure they'd regress significantly.

    I don't know that Legendz example is really comparable either, he seems to managed to avoid picking up even a shred of affinity for the succession of Limerick entities in the LOI and the distance is a bit more of a factor than the Donegal example too, no?
    So you're a teenager in Letterkenny. Your Dad has gone to Harps games for years, and you sometimes go too. But there is now a club in your own town. A lot of your friends and school pals etc are going along to the Letterkenny games, and they've never gone to Harps. And then Letterkenny are doing better than Harps. So realistically what are you going to do ?

    Not to mention that there are 20,000 people in Letterkenny, so the percentage who regularly watch Harps from there would be an insignificant fraction of that (as evidenced by the crowds Harps get). Once a Letterkenny club comes in, Harps' catchment area will inevitably contract. Not just in Letterkenny, but in the areas around Letterkenny too. The pond they can realistically fish in for support, sponsors etc will shrink. Perhaps not instantly, but undeniably with time. And particularly if the Letterkenny side are more successful (which a large population would suggest they're likely to be in an increasingly professional and expensive sport).

    Likewise if Strabane Athletic enter the upper tiers of the Irish league (which they intend to do), then a chunk of the Tyrone support for Harps will have an alternative option and decisions to make too. With the added fact that you're dealing there with different counties etc as well, which gives an added bonus to look locally. And again - Strabane has about 13,000 people plus more in its hinterland (including parts of Donegal like Lifford). So you can see how the current catchment area that Harps taps into starts to get nibbled away on a number of fronts. Because a large portion of their support is not local so is only really borrowed from elsewhere. And that is their fundamental challenge operating out of a small town with much larger towns nearby in which it is likely to see competitor clubs appearing in time.
    Last edited by EatYerGreens; 05/06/2022 at 9:39 PM.

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    Capped Player nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    I think you're greatly overthinking that EYG.
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    Population doesn't equal support numbers, intensity or limit of success.

    Galway Population= 79,934, LOI Titles: 0
    Drogheda Population= 40,956 LOI Titles: 1

    Dundalk Population= 39,004 LOI Titles: 14

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    https://www.balls.ie/football/what-h...erry-fc-512315

    Good little round up of the fortunes of new clubs that have entered the league…
    Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.

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    How many Letterkenny teenagers with Harps supporting Dads are "sometimes" going along to Harps games anyway? I'd guess that most of that fairly small number are Harps fans in their own right now and aren't likely to utterly abandon their own club wholly for convenience. To dismiss that as borrowed support seems to me to be understating the tie between most people and their football club.

    In the long run the presence of another club in close proximity wouldn't help Harps I'll grant you but that's true of any club IMO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sadloserkid View Post
    How many Letterkenny teenagers with Harps supporting Dads are "sometimes" going along to Harps games anyway? I'd guess that most of that fairly small number are Harps fans in their own right now and aren't likely to utterly abandon their own club wholly for convenience..
    To turn that around, how many Letterkenny teenagers without Harps supporting dads go along to Harps games? There is no public transport from Ballybofey to Letterkenny at that time in the evening. Maybe when they're older, they might get a car and start attending Harps, or maybe they'd attend the LoI ground within walking distance of their house?

    When I was a teenager, we moved to near Buncrana for a few years. The only reason I kept going to the Brandywell was because my neighbour drove up and down to every game. I would have struggled to get otherwise. Would I ever have started going if I was from Buncrana and had no transport to games? Fairly unlikely. Incidentally, the neighbour is from Galway and would gone to Terryland before moving to Donegal. Started going to the Brandywell, as it's his closest LoI ground, and been an ST holder for decades now. He'll still claim to be a Galway fan, in a way though.

    A Harps fan living in Lettekenny won't on day one "utterly abandon" Harps, but people will often go for the easier option, and may be tempted to gradually to go to one more often than the other, especially if their son is nagging them to go because all their friends are too.
    Convenience really matters.
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    Quote Originally Posted by brendy_éire View Post
    To turn that around, how many Letterkenny teenagers without Harps supporting dads go along to Harps games? There is no public transport from Ballybofey to Letterkenny at that time in the evening. Maybe when they're older, they might get a car and start attending Harps, or maybe they'd attend the LoI ground within walking distance of their house?
    I've agreed it could be more of a long term issue for Harps but the kids who aren't going to games anyway aren't part of their current cohort obviously.

    Quote Originally Posted by brendy_éire View Post
    When I was a teenager, we moved to near Buncrana for a few years. The only reason I kept going to the Brandywell was because my neighbour drove up and down to every game. I would have struggled to get otherwise. Would I ever have started going if I was from Buncrana and had no transport to games? Fairly unlikely. Incidentally, the neighbour is from Galway and would gone to Terryland before moving to Donegal. Started going to the Brandywell, as it's his closest LoI ground, and been an ST holder for decades now. He'll still claim to be a Galway fan, in a way though.
    Galway to Derry is a very different kettle of fish though than Letterkenny to Ballybofey/Stranorlar in terms of accessability.

    Quote Originally Posted by brendy_éire View Post
    A Harps fan living in Lettekenny won't on day one "utterly abandon" Harps, but people will often go for the easier option, and may be tempted to gradually to go to one more often than the other, especially if their son is nagging them to go because all their friends are too.
    Convenience really matters.
    Sure. I don't disagree with that. Though it's just as likely that Letterkenny will follow Kildare County trajectory and the son's nagging to go and watch them will last a couple of seasons before the Dad can happily spin up the road to Finn Park again. Lads who played against Letterkenny for other clubs in the vicinity could be slow enough to rock up and support them too.

    I agree Letterkenny would be a net loss for Finn Harps overall but I don't think it would be necessarily be an immediate or fatal bullet either. They're established, they have a core.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiki Balboa View Post
    Population doesn't equal support numbers, intensity or limit of success.

    Galway Population= 79,934, LOI Titles: 0
    Drogheda Population= 40,956 LOI Titles: 1

    Dundalk Population= 39,004 LOI Titles: 14
    Who's talking about titles though, except yourself ? The conversation is about crowds, catchment areas and long-term financial viability.
    Last edited by EatYerGreens; 06/06/2022 at 1:54 PM.

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