Euro 2020(1) megathread

[pineapple stu]

I do wonder if Southgate is the right manager for them now. He did a great job taking them to the World Cup semis - albeit that they only ever scored from set pieces - and I think the job of rebuilding the confidence alone after yet another knock-out stage shambles in 2016 (the Iceland defeat) is a big one that he's done well.

But his style seems very stodgy and you can't help wonder if a more open manager could achieve similar results playing better football. A debate that's been had elsewhere on these forums, albeit that they do have the players to do it.

Beating Croatia is a good result of course - albeit they only had five of the side from the 2018 World Cup Final - even if the performance was quite dull.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Oof, that was a rough conclusion if you're fond of the underdog. You'd presume Germany, France and Portugal are all good bets to get out of that group.

Edit: Regards England, I can't remember who said it but in 2018 they beat the teams you would expect them to beat and lost to the teams you'd either expect them to lose to or not be surprised by the result. The Croatia win shows they've grown a bit, but I'd place at least three teas above them as more likely contenders right now.

[NeverFeltBetter]

That was a lively one. France looked so threatening when coming forward with pace but gave the ball away constantly in their own half, Germany put together some lovely passing moves (perhaps a bit too much, with lots of aimless switching of play) but were hopeless in the box. Like so many before him it seems like Low has clung on one campaign too many. Portugal could easily top this group.

[osarusan]

Like so many before him it seems like Low has clung on one campaign too many.

They didn't get out of their group in Russia 2018, lost to Mexico and South Korea. I was amazed he didn't leave then.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm ignorant as to whether Low has a heroic status in Germany for 2014: do they have that kind of mentality? Perhaps the goodwill lasted this long.

I do think Italy are a good shout for the tournament now. Very impressive last night, the opener was brilliant and the order of games is helping them too.

[sidewayspasser]

I'm ignorant as to whether Low has a heroic status in Germany for 2014: do they have that kind of mentality? Perhaps the goodwill lasted this long.

Not really, at least not in the general public. There's been plenty of criticism of him for a number of years now. With the powers that be in German football, that's probably a different story. If they had sacked him after the 2018 World Cup, they would have had to take a long hard look at themselves for agreeing a new 4-year contract with him just before the World Cup.

[CraftyToePoke]

I do think Italy are a good shout for the tournament now.

Love to watch them play, and two bullish results where they usually start sluggishly, they are in this IMO.

[OwlsFan]

Good fighting performance by Scotland with no little skill. What I liked about the game is that there was little rolling round in agony after hard tackles which we have seen in nearly all the other game. Sky's new "Messi" (Foden) has yet to impress and Kane looks weary. Early days though and the tournament can't be won in the first rounds - it can be lost though. I have a suspicion that Italy may have peaked too early. I fancy Belgium.

[pineapple stu]

The great thing about Italy is they're not playing like Italy. When they're 1-0 up, they'll still attack. I think they can be dangerous in this, and they've a relatively easy last 16 tie as well if they don't lose to Wales at home (Ukraine/Austria/North Macedonia). They could have plenty in the tank by the time the quarters come around.

Belgium with de Bruyne and Hazard back are a good side too of course. They're on course to meet Italy in the quarters. That's unfortunately early for a pairing which would be a legit final at this stage.

Of the others - Spain, albeit that they've had covid problems in training, and Portugal have flattered to deceive so far. England and Croatia have been just poor, and I wouldn't put it past Croatia to lose to Scotland, who've been industrious and a bit unlucky in front of goal. Hard to judge France and Germany from their game against each other. Holland were good for 75 minutes but then went completely to sleep, and in fairness to them then recovered to win anyway.

Wales and, bizarrely, Denmark (with no points to date, but still well placed to advance) are the two "also rans" looking most likely to make an impression I think. Yer man Isak for Sweden is a cracking player, but I don't think they've the depth to make a real impression. Obviously the loss of Eriksen will hurt Denmark.

One other worry is that the goals per game rate (2.14) is at Euro 2016 levels (2.12), and both are behind Italia 90 (2.21), which was the benchmark in terms of poor attacking play. That's despite penalties becoming more common too - we've already had almost as many penalties given as in Euro 2008 and 2012 combined for example (8 v 9). Players are so big these days that there's so little space to work with, and the five subs rule means fatigue isn't an issue. I think it's increasingly becoming an issue FIFA will have to consider down the line, though I'm not sure what you do about it. I don't think you can reduce the game to 10-a-side. A rule that each side must have one player in the opposition half at all times would require an extra linesman. Maybe a straight yellow for the modern professional foul - the shirt-tug to stop a player going by - would help?

[pineapple stu]

Some stats on goalscoring actually. Euro 92 was the last tournament with the back-pass rule and had fewer goals per game than Italia 90. Euro 96 was surprisingly the same, but the next four tournaments saw a big uptick, only for the most recent two (and again, the Euro 2020 stats are a random point in time, not the final figures) to drop back to Italia 90 levels again.

Tour	Games	Goals	 GPG    Penos	 GPG (excl penos)
1992	15	32	 2.13 	3	 1.93 
1996	31	64	 2.06 	6	 1.87 
2000	31	85	 2.74 	8	 2.48 
2004	31	77	 2.48 	7	 2.26 
2008	31	77	 2.48 	4	 2.35 
2012	31	76	 2.45 	3	 2.35 
2016	51	108	 2.12 	8	 1.96 
2020	21	45	 2.14 	4	 1.95

The World Cup also saw an uptick after the backpass rule, but its goals slump was in 2006/10.

Tour	Games	Goals	 GPG    Penos	 GPG (excl penos)
1990	52	115	 2.21 	13	 1.96 
1994	52	141	 2.71 	15	 2.42 
1998	64	171	 2.67 	17	 2.41 
2002	64	161	 2.52 	13	 2.31 
2006	64	147	 2.30 	13	 2.09 
2010	64	145	 2.27 	9	 2.13 
2014	64	171	 2.67 	12	 2.48 
2018	64	169	 2.64 	22	 2.30

It's tempting to say that dross like Panama, Saudi Arabia, etc, boosts the WC figures, but then Albania, North Macedonia and others have made the last two Euros.

So is this a real issue developing? Or an anomaly? Or just random ramblings and misinterpretation of stats?

[OwlsFan]

Here's a question: what football rule is NEVER enforced by the referee ?

[John83]

Foul throw. Near enough, anyway.

[OwlsFan]

No but I have seen a few of those as well.

[SkStu]

Goalkeeper time with ball in hands? (is it 6 seconds or 10?)

[OwlsFan]

Exactly. Six seconds I think. Sometimes I have counted 20 seconds before they release and that includes them lying on the ground holding the ball. It would greatly speed up the game if that was enforced.

[pineapple stu]

Is it six seconds or six seconds once the penalty area is cleared?

There used to be all sorts of rules about that back in the day. I remember having to bounce the ball three times before a player was obliged to leave the box for example.

[SkStu]

Exactly. Six seconds I think. Sometimes I have counted 20 seconds before they release and that includes them lying on the ground holding the ball. It would greatly speed up the game if that was enforced.

Totally - it is a bit of a bug bear of mine too although i have to confess, Talbot did it a couple of times yesterday and it didnt really bother me so much LOL. I did look it up a while ago and what i found was that a) it was a guideline v a rule and b) that most people thought it was 10 seconds. This was the jist of the responses i saw to the same question on Quora.

Is it six seconds or six seconds once the penalty area is cleared?

There used to be all sorts of rules about that back in the day. I remember having to bounce the ball three times before a player was obliged to leave the box for example.

Funny, i was thinking of that yesterday too. When we were kids it was two bounces and players had to leave the box... but i doubt that was ever really a rule?!

[NeverFeltBetter]

I think obstruction is very selectively enforced, especially in terms of shepherding the ball out over the endline. The laws state a player can shield the ball, but not if they are holding off an opponent with the arm or body (which seems hard to reconcile with the idea that a player can still shield the ball: with what?)

I think yellow cards for simulation is also quite selective from ref to ref. There are plenty of times when an incident is either a foul or a dive, and the ref's just play on with no punishment.

"Appearing to take a throw-in but suddenly leaving it to a team-mate to take" is supposed to be a yellow card.

Just so I'm not hijacking the thread entirely, Denmark's win last night was stirring stuff. I don't think they'll go much further, but I'll admit it's nice to see their tournement not completely collapse after what happened.

Edit: Regards keepers, it is six seconds. Law 12.2: "An indirect free kick is awarded if a goalkeeper, inside their penalty area,commits any of the following offences:• controls the ball with the hand/arm for more than six seconds before releasingit"

[pineapple stu]

I think there's also a rule that you can't obstruct the keeper taking a kick-out or throw-out as well. But back in the olden days you did have players stand in front of the keeper and the keeper would weave around them almost to kick the ball out.

On topic, Denmark have Wales next. That's winnable. Then Holland or a third-place team (which could yet be Croatia or Portugal). That's fairly tough alright.

[pineapple stu]

I think it's only fair, after giving out about the low number of goals scored at the tournament earlier, to point out that yesterday was probably one of the most dramatic days ever seen at the Euros. 18 goals, Ronaldo equalling the World record, Germany nearly going out, Hungary nearly going through from the group of death, Poland recovering from 2-0 down to almost get through, a third goalkeeper og of the campaign, a sixth missed penalty, permutations changing every few minutes. A great evening's entertainment!