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Thread: LOI In Europe 2021

  1. #521
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    because once again you've failed to address how you can just add the second chance games to your tally, but it's problematic having them in the co-efficient?
    Once again, you're not reading my post. I explicitly called out that Dundalk's three 2020 wins would not have been there in previous years, and so needed to be considered in the comparison I made. And I did this for the exact same reason as I've said can't compare absolute coefficients like you're doing.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    Or, for arguments sake, lets say you're right doesn't the same also hold for the era when we had three teams versus when we had four?
    Well you're the one comparing absolute coefficients, not me. All I'm showing is why you can't really do that. If you want to further undermine your own argument, fire ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    So you didn't allow for any period in which those countries may have out ranked us and otherwise fallen into the category of decent result? Once again, subjective.
    No, because that wasn't what I was comparing, and I was very clear about what my comparison was (post 452). Is a comparison of results against leagues outside the current bottom ten countries subjective? Of course. Does that make it wrong? I don't see how. You certainly haven't shown how.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    So in the period 00/01 - 09/10
    ...
    In the period 10/11 - 19/20
    But I was clearly comparing the periods 2003-2011 v 2012-2020 (2003-11 being the LoI's peak period). Another indication that you're not reading my posts. So yet again, can I ask you to go back and read my posts before replying? It might stop you asking more questions which I've already answered.

    But the gas thing is you then produce stats which actually back my point up! As a quick summary (and without checking if they're correct; I'll assume they are) -

    Top 20 record (W-L) gone from 2-15 in the 00s to 0-16 in the 10s.
    Top 30 record gone from 7-24 to 6-32 (a noticeable drop; 22% success down to 15%)
    30-39 record gone from 9-0 to 7-15 (a significant drop)

    You then compare top-30 scalps in the 00s with "notable scalps" in the 10s, which includes a win against the 34th-ranked league, Bosnia. Those comparisons aren't valid.

    So are you honestly going to quote those stats at me and argue against my point that "It's hard not to think that results like this really put the lie to those who say the league is steadily improving"?

    What scalps were available in the last five years? Celje, Riteriai, Fehervar, Niederkorn, Norrköping, Dinamo Minsk, AIK - all mid-20s or lower, or Swedish (we used to have a great record against Swedisk clubs). Rosenborg (twice) and Molde (Rovers did beat Brann after all). I could add in Qarabag and Slovan (twice), but they're top teams from a middling league and it'd probably be unfair to expect much from them; they're stronger than their moderate national rating. Still, there's plenty of options there.

    Edit - while I think of it, I reckon going from 3 teams to 4 helped our coefficient, not hindered it as you claim. The LoI has always been a flat league in terms of standard - eight different winners in ten seasons from 2005 to 2014 suggests that. Compare that to other leagues where, say, Skonto Riga (well, RIP), BATE Borisov, Lincoln Red Impds, Dinamo Zagreb, etc, win almost every year. The gap from first to fourth in those leagues is going to be bigger than in the LoI, so that should actually hinder their coefficient slightly, not ours. Similar to how Scotland's coefficient would be reduced if they added another team (or in fact was reduced while Rangers were in the lower tiers)
    Last edited by pineapple stu; 21/07/2021 at 3:52 PM.

  2. #522
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ontheotherhand View Post
    Yeah fair. I just think Bohs have a bit of buzz about them and should be able to get 10k in the door for this. I'd be disappointed if Rovers weren't able to do it. But you're right on Dudelange not being much of a household name.
    Can I just say it would be a fantastic achievement if Bohs get 10k for a game against Dudelange. And I think it was a fantastic achievement to get 6k for the Stjarnan game too. OK, no football for years and Lansdowne Road as a bonus - but it's Stjarnan/Dudelange. To say "I couldn't see them selling 20k" is possibly the most curmudgeonly thing I've ever seen on here! (Shock horror - it was Paul )

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    You need to grow up and stop listening to Nirvana stu - you cant be a student for ever :P

    I was clearly replying saying that 10k was a nice number of which OTOH didnt agree with. Would you prefer if I said 15k?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ontheotherhand View Post
    Yeah fair. I just think Bohs have a bit of buzz about them and should be able to get 10k in the door for this. I'd be disappointed if Rovers weren't able to do it. But you're right on Dudelange not being much of a household name. I like to think that people are slowly getting sick of the elite levels of football and will start seeing a bit more romance in the local game and ties against interesting European opposition. I see grumblings in my friend groups where lads who once worshipped Man U and the rest are starting to get disillusioned with the Super League nonsense etc. Some of them have taken a shine to LoI clubs. Unfortunately Bohs included. Add that to the country opening up while the EPL is on break and I want to believe we are ripe for a bit of an increase in interest. But......I have a cynic on my other shoulder who says the pubs will be a bigger draw every time.
    Ya theres definitely a short window of opportunity there for Bohs and a few other clubs to capitalise on( no pubs, but attendance at games), whether they do or can do it and whether it leads to long term "fans" is another question.
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  6. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul_oshea View Post
    You need to grow up and stop listening to Nirvana stu - you cant be a student for ever :P

    I was clearly replying saying that 10k was a nice number of which OTOH didnt agree with. Would you prefer if I said 15k?
    Thanks for the acronym. No idea why I chose the handle I did.

    I wasn't disagreeing with the number, more the idea that it was pure novelty that brought out the crowd and that said novelty would be gone now. Much as it pains me to say it, Bohs have done good work (the less cringe stuff) and I wasn't shocked they got 6000 nor would I be shocked if they could pull in 10k given everything going on. It would be a great crowd nonetheless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    Edit - while I think of it, I reckon going from 3 teams to 4 helped our coefficient, not hindered it as you claim. The LoI has always been a flat league in terms of standard - eight different winners in ten seasons from 2005 to 2014 suggests that. Compare that to other leagues where, say, Skonto Riga (well, RIP), BATE Borisov, Lincoln Red Impds, Dinamo Zagreb, etc, win almost every year. The gap from first to fourth in those leagues is going to be bigger than in the LoI, so that should actually hinder their coefficient slightly, not ours. Similar to how Scotland's coefficient would be reduced if they added another team (or in fact was reduced while Rangers were in the lower tiers)

    So what you saying is contrary to the three (? four? you read your ramblings how many times was it?) posts were you made it abundantly clear that the move from three to four team affected everyone equally no room for circumstance, you've come around to the idea that maybe it affected different countries in different ways due to 'strength in depth' or something. But of course, by your reckoning, it couldn't affect ours in such a way.


    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    But I was clearly comparing the periods 2003-2011 v 2012-2020 (2003-11 being the LoI's peak period). Another indication that you're not reading my posts. So yet again, can I ask you to go back and read my posts before replying? It might stop you asking more questions which I've already answered.

    But the gas thing is you then produce stats which actually back my point up! As a quick summary (and without checking if they're correct; I'll assume they are) -

    Top 20 record (W-L) gone from 2-15 in the 00s to 0-16 in the 10s.
    Top 30 record gone from 7-24 to 6-32 (a noticeable drop; 22% success down to 15%)
    30-39 record gone from 9-0 to 7-15 (a significant drop)

    You then compare top-30 scalps in the 00s with "notable scalps" in the 10s, which includes a win against the 34th-ranked league, Bosnia. Those comparisons aren't valid.


    So are you honestly going to quote those stats at me and argue against my point that "It's hard not to think that results like this really put the lie to those who say the league is steadily improving"?
    The legends should match, they're both top 30. I've been 100% consistent in my approach, I could have omitted them, but when Pat's beat them BHZ were a top 30 country.

    Here's the thing Stu, if you read my post I make absolutely 0 claims about this. And there are one or two errors in there, I fat fingered a few manual entries. It means exactly sweet fa. It's an 'executive summary' of the data I compiled. Because the guy claiming to be sitting on the dataset refused to share.

    But if you want to post a comparison of 03/04-11/12 and 12/13-20/21 be my guest

    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    What scalps were available in the last five years? Celje, Riteriai, Fehervar, Niederkorn, Norrköping, Dinamo Minsk, AIK - all mid-20s or lower, or Swedish (we used to have a great record against Swedisk clubs). Rosenborg (twice) and Molde (Rovers did beat Brann after all). I could add in Qarabag and Slovan (twice), but they're top teams from a middling league and it'd probably be unfair to expect much from them; they're stronger than their moderate national rating. Still, there's plenty of options there.
    As I said I'm not making any claims based on what I posted. I'll let other people come to their own conclusions.

    What I take issue with is your narrative, which is look at these results we're rubbish, and it has been at least as long as the last time we had two teams going to Iceland, if not back before even 08/09.

    How do you reconcile expectations of beating teams from top 30 on the regular, with the urge to **** in everyone's drink when one team loses to a non 'decent' team?

    I'm not claiming we're going to set the world on fire, but somewhere in those posts I've yet to read even you acknowledge we've improved since the financial collapse - course being you it's unclear if you were on about the economy tanking or the off-field antics of LOI clubs. I'm not even claiming we're getting similar result to 'peak loi'. I'm claiming some small mesaure of improvement, from the setbacks over the last decade, as progress.

    *EDIT - sorry i missed this bit first time

    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    The LoI has always been a flat league in terms of standard - eight different winners in ten seasons from 2005 to 2014 suggests that.

    wt actual f? have you been following the league. It suggests the implosion, collapse, relegation and other scandals involving the leading lights of you 'peak LOI'
    *
    Last edited by A N Mouse; 21/07/2021 at 8:28 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by paul_oshea View Post
    Ya fair enough given the current circumstances people want to be able to do something, but even so with that in mind I couldnt see them selling 20k, what did Dundalk sell for that Legia game 25k?( it wasnt busy in the stand I was in) The official attendance was probably higher, but it definitely didnt feel liike anymore than that. Given what was at the stake and what you've said youd expect that to sell out(one step from group qualificaton)
    To be fair, Dundalk v Legia would have sold another 10k tickets if Ticketmaster didn't make an absolute balls of the whole thing. It kept saying sold out repeatedly and they released small sections at a time. If they'd opened up the stadium from the start it might have topped any FAI Cup final record.

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    5500 sold already as of this evening. I do think we could have easily sold more than 8000 given the opportunity. Anyway, nice time to be a Bohs supporter.

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    5500 from just members before general sale? Who knew they had so many members, the new Dalymount at 6000 while need to be expanded before opening

  12. #530
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    So what you saying is contrary to the three (? four? you read your ramblings how many times was it?) posts were you made it abundantly clear that the move from three to four team affected everyone equally no room for circumstance, you've come around to the idea that maybe it affected different countries in different ways due to 'strength in depth' or something. But of course, by your reckoning, it couldn't affect ours in such a way.
    I think it's a fairly minor factor - certainly it doesn't come close to explaining the drop-off in results we're seeing. But I don't think your view that it was a hindrance to us is correct, and I don't think you've considered the implication on other leagues in the slightest. And again, it'll impact absolute coefficient figures, but I'm generally comparing results (and ranking to a lesser extent)

    So your point overall doesn't stack up.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    but when Pat's beat them BHZ were a top 30 country.
    Nope; ranked 32nd at the end of the 2011/12 season, and the game was in the 2012/13 season.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    But if you want to post a comparison of 03/04-11/12 and 12/13-20/21 be my guest
    But...I did. It's the stat you're querying to begin with.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    How do you reconcile expectations of beating teams from top 30 on the regular, with the urge to **** in everyone's drink when one team loses to a non 'decent' team?
    Because the stats which you posted yourself - which agree with the ones I posted earlier - show that we have stopped beating top 30 teams regularly perhaps? Do you not see there's a big drop-off between a 22% success rate and a 15% success rate? And I'd say if you broke your 2010s stats into 2011-15 and 2016-20, you would see a further decline in the second half of the decade.

    You mightn't like my conclusion, but that doesn't mean it's wrong. Especially when your own stats back the view up.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    somewhere in those posts I've yet to read even you acknowledge we've improved since the financial collapse
    That's probably because my whole point is that we haven't, in any meaningful way.

    Quote Originally Posted by A N Mouse View Post
    wt actual f? have you been following the league. It suggests the implosion, collapse, relegation and other scandals involving the leading lights of you 'peak LOI'
    It can suggest more than one thing. It suggests a bit of that, sure, but you've (again) missed the point I made, which is that we didn't have any one team walking away with the league year-in-year-out, constantly mopping up the European money and getting much better European results than other clubs. For those leagues, adding a fourth team would dilute the coefficient slightly. For us with a relatively competitive league throughout that timeframe (one or two exceptional margins excluded), it wouldn't. So the point you made about a fourth team hurting our coefficient isn't valid.
    Last edited by pineapple stu; 21/07/2021 at 11:00 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunny Kelly View Post
    5500 from just members before general sale? Who knew they had so many members, the new Dalymount at 6000 while need to be expanded before opening
    You have to buy at least two at a time. I think they might have around a thousand members, maybe a bit less.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunny Kelly View Post
    5500 from just members before general sale? Who knew they had so many members, the new Dalymount at 6000 while need to be expanded before opening
    Think it's members and ST holders. Over 2,000 ST holders and 1,000 members this year I'd thought?

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    Bohs game next week sold out again,fair play to them….

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    Quote Originally Posted by joey B View Post
    Bohs game next week sold out again,fair play to them….
    That was quick , lucky I set a reminder on the phone and got mine early.

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    Quote Originally Posted by joey B View Post
    Bohs game next week sold out again,fair play to them….
    8,000 sold amazingly fast for 2nd round against Luxembourg!! I'd say they would have filled at least half that stadium without limits. Most people haven't been to an event in 18 months and noone is on holidays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buller View Post
    8,000 sold amazingly fast for 2nd round against Luxembourg!! I'd say they would have filled at least half that stadium without limits. Most people haven't been to an event in 18 months and noone is on holidays.
    On mine now the covid pass works a treat. I really enjoyed the last game in the Aviva, the pre match buzz felt very like a bit of normality has returned. It should be an interesting game, I don’t expect Bohs to have it all their own way like the last game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    Nope; ranked 32nd at the end of the 2011/12 season, and the game was in the 2012/13 season.
    Thanks for pointing that out. I'll have to go back and revisit all my rankings. Something else I didn't read, the ranking in wiki articles are from 2 year previous, where the access list is worked from.

    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    I think it's a fairly minor factor - certainly it doesn't come close to explaining the drop-off in results we're seeing. But I don't think your view that it was a hindrance to us is correct, and I don't think you've considered the implication on other leagues in the slightest. And again, it'll impact absolute coefficient figures, but I'm generally comparing results (and ranking to a lesser extent)
    This is possibly the most sensible thing you've said.

    As I stated previously it boils my ****, that year after year you appear to come in with an agenda, say look at these stats, in which I'm discounting xyz, it can only be true.

    Because when you look at everything in the round, stats, results, co-efficient and ranking you should be able to look for reasons. These things tell a story, of course the story is up for interpretation, but maybe a consensus can be reached.

    I'll get back to my interpretation shortly, but I'm sorry I couldn't let this bit lie.

    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    Edit - while I think of it, I reckon going from 3 teams to 4 helped our coefficient, not hindered it as you claim. The LoI has always been a flat league in terms of standard - eight different winners in ten seasons from 2005 to 2014 suggests that. Compare that to other leagues where, say, Skonto Riga (well, RIP), BATE Borisov, Lincoln Red Impds, Dinamo Zagreb, etc, win almost every year. The gap from first to fourth in those leagues is going to be bigger than in the LoI, so that should actually hinder their coefficient slightly, not ours. Similar to how Scotland's coefficient would be reduced if they added another team (or in fact was reduced while Rangers were in the lower tiers)
    They say there's a fine line between genius and crazy.

    I say congratulations sir you are not afraid of that line. Either this throwaway comment is a genius level troll or...

    In a thread were you're accused of cherry picking data to make a point. You couldn't just stick to your 'peak loi' or use a decade where three digits remain the same. No you had to go and pick 'the one' that best fits.

    I mean we're that level that one of those champions, makes zero appearances in the corresponding 06/07 - 15/16 European seasons.

    2 of them start the period in the first division, one starts by being relegated, one is demoted.

    And if you look at the list of European participants in this period there's 10, and one of them is for good behaviour. Just for good measure there's another demotion and an implosion in there too.

    Bohs (09,10,11,12)
    Cork(06,08,15)
    Derry (06,07,09,13,14)
    Drogheda (06,07,08,13)
    Dundalk (10,14,15)
    Fingal(10)
    St Pat's (08,09,11,12,13,14,15)
    Shamrock (10,11,12,15)
    Sligo (09,11,12,13,14)
    UCD(15)

    So effectively 8 regular participants in Europe, and half of them spent some of this time in the first division. Now if that occurs organically then fine we should be in a good place, but all this chopping and changing.


    Anyway back to the story...
    We're here 'peak LOI'

    06/07 we've had some success up until now, last year saw two teams progress a round. And this one is a breakout year as all three teams win through at least a round we're going in the right direction.

    Then champions Shels go boom.

    The heat and step up is too much for Derry. Pat's first European adventure in a while, sees them on a hiding to nothing against strong Danish opponents.

    The following year experience counts for Pat's and Drogheda, while Cork struggle.

    Now at this point we move to having 4 teams. We're almost at point we were after 05/06, having three teams capable of securing a win, and we're throwing in a fourth untested team. The structure has changed, we have teams starting in different rounds, with some unseeded in the second round.

    Kind opening pairings, and experience sees Derry and Pat through one and two rounds respectively. In their first European outings in a while, Bohs do well but fall short against the Austrians, but Sligo struggle.

    Some demotion stuff happens domestically.

    The less said about Bohs in Wales the better. Fingal are on a hiding to nothing, starting in round 2 somewhere in the north atlantic, is it even off Portugal? While having gotten over stints in the doldrums, and progressing on the pitch Dundalk and Shamrock Rover pop up with a couple of wins.

    At this point we've peaked in the co-efficients, yet still only seem to be able to get results from two of four teams.

    Due to what can only have been a clerical error or something Sligo start in r3 in the Ukraine, don't get stuffed. Pat's do their thing and win a couple of rounds. Bohs do their thing, go out at the first attempt. And just to rub salt into their wounds Shams do that thing, a second bit of the cherry see them overcome Partizan and well you know.

    The following year Shams are back, with a whimper in Lithuania. Once again the draw is unkind to Sligo, starting in r2 against Slovakians(?). And Pat's and Bohs once again do their respective thing, this time Bohs wishing they hadn't gone to Iceland. Only Pat's flying the flag this year.

    Summer 13 was far from great, in fairness the draw was pretty unfavourable for Sligo, Derry (back so soon) and Drogheda. Pat's would have fancied their chances, but finally fell at the first hurdle.

    At this point the format changes again, or at least we're no longer 'victims of our own success'. In the last few years some of our teams have started in later rounds. From the 8 later starting ties we won just 3, with only Shams win over the Israelis being against the book. Now all our EL teams start at r1.

    14/15 saw Pat's up against it in Poland. While favourable draws saw the other three advance a round, to leave things finally looking up.

    While in the years since, it can't all be put down to bad luck in the draw, though there have been some awful years. We've haven't been on the wrong end of too many upsets, though 15/16 (UCD performance aside) doesn't look too good. There were signs we might see 4 teams win through a round. Last year was a fecking lotto, but it's the closest we've come to that break out year. Given the new format there may be more luck in the draw.

    The reason 'peak loi' was unsustainable wasn't just the financial arms races, but not having everyone start at r1 meant that when we should have been having breakout years and winnable ties we weren't. The only sustainable way forward is having everyone capable of pulling their weight and there are signs of that, and that's what I'm willing to see as progress.

    Of course we're never far from Domestic turmoil and Cork and Dundalk having be continuing that trend, in more subdued manner. The question is can whoever replaces them step up.

    Of course you're entitled to your own view of things. But if you look at the bigger picture, and the sum of your argument is still we're not winning against sides we were beating before then you sound like old Nicklaus who was going to Ireland on holiday with his football team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by D24Saint View Post
    On mine now the covid pass works a treat. I really enjoyed the last game in the Aviva, the pre match buzz felt very like a bit of normality has returned. It should be an interesting game, I don’t expect Bohs to have it all their own way like the last game.
    Yeah ordinarily you'd say Luxembourg are maybe a similar level to Icelandic opposition, but not with F91 Dudelange having qualified for the Europa League 2018 and 2019!! Surely at least at Dundalks peak level with that kind of money. Do they have a sugar daddy investor too which enabled qualification in the first instance? Their average league crowds are only around the 900-1000 mark.

    No doubt Bohs will give them a very good game and it definitely looks a winnable tie, but they'll have to be at their best.

    Atmosphere will be rocking with 8k LOI fans in there.
    Last edited by Buller; 22/07/2021 at 2:27 PM.

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    Maígh Eó
    Posts
    15,562
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,129
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    922
    Thanked in
    742 Posts
    Is the bohs game on TV tonight?
    I'm a bloke,I'm an ocker
    And I really love your knockers,I'm a labourer by day,
    I **** up all me pay,Watching footy on TV,
    Just feed me more VB,Just pour my beer,And get my smokes, And go away

  23. #540
    Coach
    Joined
    May 2002
    Posts
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    Apparently not.
    Yo no soy marinero. Soy capitan.

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