LOI In Europe 2021

[Nesta99]

Ya that wont work, you'd need the times of goals. Dundalk conceded 2 late ones versus Qarabag, only a couple of seasons ago.

But just scrawling through that you can see that results appear to have narrower gaps in the more recent years per club.

It would be interesting to see if this was more an outlier in more recent years compared to 20 yrs ago, if that trend is constant then it sways things toward Stu's thinking that things havent improved much - conditions different same similar outcomes.

[pineapple stu]

Ya that wont work, you'd need the times of goals. Dundalk conceded 2 late ones versus Qarabag, only a couple of seasons ago.

But just scrawling through that you can see that results appear to have narrower gaps in the more recent years per club.

Btw that doesnt include last years, any other years missing? Bohs last result there is 2013.

This'll make it a lot easier to search for the times Paul. It's your claim; I'm not doing your research for you!

"Results appear to have narrower gaps in the more recent years per club" is a particularly useless conclusion to be honest! Which results? Is it actually true or are you just picking up on a few outliers? Are we playing easier teams these days? Cork Hibs' results have certainly improved since the days of losing 6-0 and 7-1 to Valencia and Gladbach for example, but that doesn't really mean much

Last year's is the only one missing AFAIK.

[Straightstory]

So one LOI side (Sligo) lost (on agg) 3-1 to an Icelandic side, and the other (Bohs) beat an Icelandic side 4-1. Sligo beat Bohs 4-0 recently, so hard to make senses of any of that.
Sligo's result is an embarrassment, but I was lucky enough to be at The Aviva last night, and the game was hugely enjoyable. One point I'd make about Irish sides is that they can now keep possession much better that they used to. Bohs put together some beautiful passing moves last night. This would have been unthinkable when I started watching Irish football in the 70s. Teams would be lucky to string three passes together. Without doubt LOI football has improved a lot - but so has the game across other European leagues.
It'll be interesting to see how Bohs do in the next round.

[pineapple stu]

I am happy to acknowledge that LoI football is without doubt better than in the 70s

[Nesta99]

Not at all a dig but can you just imagine the soul searching in Lux football when UCD knocked out Dudelange, then 3 years later they beat Legia and Cluj to get to EL groups? Not always straight lines in football where there is any sense to be made of it.

If a 2nd tier college team from a low ranked league beat one of our sides I think people would be calling for the league to be wound up!!

[pineapple stu]

I don't need to imagine it - I read it in the Luxembourg papers at the time!

But that's why I'm taking a 5-year spread of results. It takes the focus away from individual bad results (eg Sligo last night) and looks at the wider picture (ie we've beaten one team from a country higher than 46th in the past five years, taking shoot-outs as draws)

[ltfc_2004]

Old misery guts again, lol, do you work for nphet

No he doesnt but I do lol

[Nesta99]

No he doesnt but I do lol

Fair play, what an impossibly hard job!!!!

[paul_oshea]

You'd probably have to look at how many time the same club conceded 2 in the last 20 mins in non European games and maybe even how many time the opposition scored 2 last 20mins in other European fixtures. But Id agree that there is no shortage of memories of the late capitulation, maybe its perception too, as they are the ones that hurt, stand out so memory bias kicks in.

I am not so sure they hurt as much as the ones that were the conceding/missing for lapses due to physical and mental exhaustion, like red bull against bohs a silly header back pass i think, or robinson missing a sitter against kiev away. Well missing can't necessarily be put down to physical exhaustion, but the 2 goals in the last quarter conceded never bothered so much for me as I put it down to "more of the same crap". I am pretty sure on here if you go back 10 years I asked the question why couldnt they at least be as physically fit as their european counterparts, the rebuke was part time etc etc and gaa players were a good comparison and LOI were fitter, that argument ceased as the dubs and the likes trained pretty much like a professional outfit and as the loi teams became fitter and stronger.

Perceptive memories is one perhaps but I have it in my mind teams battling well in the 00s and then conceding a couple in relatively quick concession on 65-70+ minutes, but as you say that good well be just perception and revisionism

[Nesta99]

I don't need to imagine it - I read it in the Luxembourg papers at the time!

But that's why I'm taking a 5-year spread of results. It takes the focus away from individual bad results (eg Sligo last night) and looks at the wider picture (ie we've beaten one team from a country higher than 46th in the past five years, taking shoot-outs as draws)

Outside the last 5 years bar individual exceptional results, we had some very bleak years, losing to much lower ranked leagues of that time like Wales and Malta. To get through a round even by taking games to penalties 0-0 on agg could be progress depending on the context. I dont intend seem awkward, as I may purely be basing things on perception/selective memory so am open to changing that perception. I still feel that the league has improved overall, the backs to the wall, hanging on in the hope of nicking a result from a long ball or going to penos is less often if at all, a tactic these days. Losses have less often been humiliating and more often clubs seem to have a fighting chance. Irrespective of league ranking or a club having a sustained period of qualifying for Europe, Dundalk have attained the highest co-efficient and seeding Irish clubs have ever had. Its at least partially result based and a position that nobody would really have really believed it would happen, maybe if Rovers had really kicked on with the first aearance in group stages. For me anyway, Dundalk bias aside, it is an indication of progress. We talk a lot more about missed opportunities now, self implosion etc. rather than cringing at cricket score aggregate results. But then as someone alluded to above maybe thats general trend across Europe with less heavy defeats happening.

[pineapple stu]

I don't think that's entirely accurate. In the last five years, we have one win against a side from a country not in the bottom ten (Brann). In the five years before that there were wins over sides from Belarus, Israel (in the group stage, but technically Dundalk won on away goals!), Bosnia, Luxembourg (four times), Lithuania and the North. And the previous five years were better again - wins against sides from Kazakhstan, Serbia, Israel, Luxembourg (again!), Latvia (twice), Russia and Sweden. (There were fewer second chances then too).

Yeah, there'll always be a hammering or two. But our list of scalps is growing steadily less impressive. "Progress" cannot mean 46th in the UEFA rankings.

[Nesta99]

Croatia too! Maybe the time period should be extended lol. Maybe the recent regression is correlated to Dundalk FC's regression. I watch Connahs Quay game in Armenia, and it was a real throw back where they just dug the trenches and were obviously playing for penos considering the 1st leg was 2-2. They nearly did it, conceding with 5 or 6 mins left in ET. Its noth something I have seen from a LoI team for a long time. Maybe we have to establish what progress is, league ranking is the real gauge for sure, but there are so many other considerations too. I dont think there was a huge gap between Slovan and Rovers for example, possibly being more positive and focused in the 1st leg would have made a difference. Sligo were more than capable of getting past FH - Im still not really sure how it went so badly wrong. Cork were too negative in Europe under JC which I think cost them but yet picked up some good results too. Margins are fine between leagues of lower end rankings which could change with one solid year of results. Lux being an example. When Dundalk knock Roma out of the PO round we can revisit things. The gaffes seemed to be reducing but the main difference between LoI sides and Euro opposition is a lack of clinical ability and making chances count. It feels like we need 5 good chances to score yet we'd be punished by one attack - ability or mentality? Probably a mix but an issue that can be bridged imo.

[pineapple stu]

I think that's still trying to believe your viewpoint rather than rationally analysing it though.

Slovan are in pre-season and still beat Rovers - albeit by a narrow score. Cork's last good result in Europe was the Hacken win, which is six years ago now.Sligo "were more than capable" of beating FH...but they didn't. We've had lots of times we've been more than capable of beating someone, but silly mistakes cost us, including lax finishing, and that's what defines poor teams.

Luxembourg did more than just put a few results together - they've gotten a lot of finance into the league (corporate sponsorship I presume, as their crowds aren't great) and the top teams are decent full-time outfits now. It helps they can tap up players from Belgium/France/Germany/Holland of course, but the likes of Dudelange will probably have a bigger budget than Bohs, or most LoI sides. (Maybe 2-2.5mill all told) So Luxembourg's league improving isn't just "one solid year of results" - it's a sea change in their clubs' funding which we haven't mirrored.

[Longfordian]

No he doesnt but I do lol

Welcome Tony

[yurt]

I think that's still trying to believe your viewpoint rather than rationally analysing it though.

Slovan are in pre-season and still beat Rovers - albeit by a narrow score. Cork's last good result in Europe was the Hacken win, which is six years ago now.Sligo "were more than capable" of beating FH...but they didn't. We've had lots of times we've been more than capable of beating someone, but silly mistakes cost us, including lax finishing, and that's what defines poor teams.

Luxembourg did more than just put a few results together - they've gotten a lot of finance into the league (corporate sponsorship I presume, as their crowds aren't great) and the top teams are decent full-time outfits now. It helps they can tap up players from Belgium/France/Germany/Holland of course, but the likes of Dudelange will probably have a bigger budget than Bohs, or most LoI sides. (Maybe 2-2.5mill all told) So Luxembourg's league improving isn't just "one solid year of results" - it's a sea change in their clubs' funding which we haven't mirrored.

One piece of ration analysis that could be pointed to is last year we had a mid table team qualify for the Europa league group stage.

I don't necessarily think that the standard of the teams has improved massively, for example I'd guess that LOI clubs are all still all 0.5 or 1 star on FIFA. But I do think we can say that the standard in club has improved at least a little bit in the last 5 years, even if it is only just due to the underage structures which are in place. It mightn't last forever but things at least appears to be a bit more stable and clubs more professional. Don't ask for proof on this claim because it's just an impression I have.

Would just also like to point out that the Luxembourg champions lost 7-2 on aggregate to the Gibraltar champions in the UCL this week and both of their teams in the ECL Q1 got knocked out. So Luxembourg can't exactly be a million miles ahead of us at this point.

I think that there's really not that much difference in quality between the bottom 20 league in Europe and a couple of results one way or the other can see a league jump way up the co-efficient table. I think a metric a better metric for deciding if the league is going forward or not is the average attendance. If more people are actually going to games the clubs are obviously doing some things right.

[CSAD]

Not at all a dig but can you just imagine the soul searching in Lux football when UCD knocked out Dudelange, then 3 years later they beat Legia and Cluj to get to EL groups? Not always straight lines in football where there is any sense to be made of it.

If a 2nd tier college team from a low ranked league beat one of our sides I think people would be calling for the league to be wound up!!

To be fair UCD knocking them out was one of the most poxiest wins you will ever see in European football , it was something like 30 shots to 3 to Dudelange in the game at Luxembourg.

[CSAD]

One piece of ration analysis that could be pointed to is last year we had a mid table team qualify for the Europa league group stage.

I don't necessarily think that the standard of the teams has improved massively, for example I'd guess that LOI clubs are all still all 0.5 or 1 star on FIFA. But I do think we can say that the standard in club has improved at least a little bit in the last 5 years, even if it is only just due to the underage structures which are in place. It mightn't last forever but things at least appears to be a bit more stable and clubs more professional. Don't ask for proof on this claim because it's just an impression I have.

Would just also like to point out that the Luxembourg champions lost 7-2 on aggregate to the Gibraltar champions in the UCL this week and both of their teams in the ECL Q1 got knocked out. So Luxembourg can't exactly be a million miles ahead of us at this point.

I think that there's really not that much difference in quality between the bottom 20 league in Europe and a couple of results one way or the other can see a league jump way up the co-efficient table. I think a metric a better metric for deciding if the league is going forward or not is the average attendance. If more people are actually going to games the clubs are obviously doing some things right.

From the bottom 30 or so leagues only Europe you are just splitting hairs, I also think you need to remember that just because a league is higher on the co efficient doesn’t necessarily mean the league is that strong, like with the SPL being 14th, that’s largely down to only 2 teams doing well in Europe but if you look at the other SPL teams they tend to struggle no less than a lot of middle of the road teams in qualifying.

[EatYerGreens]

To be fair UCD knocking them out was one of the most poxiest wins you will ever see in European football , it was something like 30 shots to 3 to Dudelange in the game at Luxembourg.

Vert true. It was the sort of game you could write a book about.

[Martinho II]

I still want up to Dublin and my Bohs mate came up with the goods another mate had a spare ticket going as his mrs couldnt attend so I met him at Ballsbridge hotel and gave him the twenty quid. I was high up in the stand and had a great view of the shenigans behind the goals.
Bohs thoroughly deserved their win last night they were immense. Delighted for them.

[pineapple stu]

One piece of ration analysis that could be pointed to is last year we had a mid table team qualify for the Europa league group stage.

I think any Dundalk fan will acknowledge they had the luckiest run of draws in the history of European football. The easiest side in each draw; Andorra, Moldova and the Faroes to get to the groups. I think that can safely be classed as a freak result in fairness.

Would just also like to point out that the Luxembourg champions lost 7-2 on aggregate to the Gibraltar champions in the UCL this week and both of their teams in the ECL Q1 got knocked out. So Luxembourg can't exactly be a million miles ahead of us at this point.

We'll find out next week I guess! That was an extraordinary result alright (even if the Gibraltar side were the seeded team, and indeed were seeded above Rovers!) Racing Luxembourg lost home and away to an Icelandic team too.

But returning a bit to topic, Bohs v Dudelange will be an interesting one; certainly the trend in recent meetings has been that the Luxembourg league has been steadily closing on us and then passing us out. A straightforward win in 2014, an away goals win with ten men in 2015, an away goals win against ten men in 2016, and then Cork got knocked there in 2019. Dudelange missed out on Europe altogether last year, so that might have hit their budget given the previous year they were in the group stages.

Dundalk's troubles aside, you'd be disappointed if they didn't go through against the Estonians. Rovers obviously have the bye, but the third round looks like it could be manageable, although the final qualifying round looks quite tough.