I hadn't considered the financial aspect of it at all, but I think you're on the right track there. No money for qualifying or competing in the finals for the Russian football association.
Yeah, it's a strange one. That seems to be what will happen alright. I got the feeling either (a) allowing them in the qualifiers gives them time to appeal, whereas if you booted them out of the qualifiers and then lost an appeal you'd have a big lawsuit or (b) they want to punish the federation but not the players - so the players get to go to the World Cup, the Russian fans get to watch their team (and FIFA get their TV money), but the Russian Federation doesn't make any money off it. But I don't really know.
I hadn't considered the financial aspect of it at all, but I think you're on the right track there. No money for qualifying or competing in the finals for the Russian football association.
ok but it is unfair, imagine if a team are beating by them home and away, and couldnt win the group because of those results. Lawsuit as well
Seedings confirmed for the draw on Monday week, with Ireland in Pot three.
I'd take Denmark in Pot 1, but only because we've a history of drawing with them, I don't think we'd get anything from the rest
Turkey/Slovakia/Romania from Pot 2
Israel/Belarus/Luxembourg from Pot 4
and then anything from 5 or 6
I'd prefer to avoid anything with long distance travel as well
I still think our best chance - not that it's a great chance, but our best chance - is getting a Spain/Germany as top seed, who'll do the double over the second seed.
I could see Denmark dropping a point against us but three against the second seeds, and then we're really in trouble.
Some of those fourth seeds aren't walkovers either.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
Well, ok, maybe Germany's a bad example alright. Though you should never write off the Germans!
I was thinking of England really but couldn't bring myself to say I want them in our group so they can beat us and the second seeds twice
At least there does not seem to be anyone in pot 2 where we wouldn't at least have a fighting chance - I mean, we have played Switzerland, Wales, Slovakia, Austria, Sweden and Poland recent enough and should give any of those a game.
We won't be stuck in a Germany / Netherlands situation like NIR were in the last qualifiers or Spain & Italy for the last WC draw. You are finished before you start in that scenario.
Best case scenario :
Denmark
Slovakia
Republic of Ireland
Luxemborg
Andorra
Gibraltar
Fair played to Luxemborg for getting themselves into the 4th Pot.
Worst
Belgium
Switzerland
Republic of Ireland
Bosnia & Hertzegovina
Kosovo
Issue is, unlike in previous years, second place gets us to a 1 in 4 playoff rather than 1 in 2.
So the chance you might win a group with Denmark and Romania in it, is drastically better than the difference in chance you’d come second in a group with France and Slovakia over coming second in a group with Denmark and whoever.
Old tournaments = 9 group winners + 4/8 best runners up
This one: 10 group winners + 3/12 (10 runners up + 2 best nations league teams that aren’t among the 22).
We’re outside the top 24 in the nations league so we can’t gain those 2 places.
I'll admire your optimism, elated, even if I can't come close to sharing it!
I don't see us winning even a crap group. We've only ever once won a qualifying group (Euro 88) and I don't see how the worst team since then (and indeed, some time beforehand too) is going to buck that trend even if we do get Denmark and Romania.
I'd have no problems being wrong of course! But I still think a sneaky second in a group with a dominant top seed and a weak second seed is our best bet. Even if, as you say, it's a 1 in 4 play-off now.
We came close to topping the group in 2002, that was with a hot 2nd seed and an ailing 1st seed.
A similar group to that, maybe throw in a banana skin in the 4th pot.
Really think the triple-header format for qualifiers puts smaller nations like ourselves at a disadvantage. Way too condensed now in my opinion. We stood a better chance when it was mainly one qualifier, sometimes two qualifiers in a window spread over 15 months.
What club is going to want their players playing in all three matches ~ ~ so smaller countries with weaker panels are going to suffer = = suits FIFA and the Big Countries with stronger squads and bigger choices of players. Football is becoming less and less about the small countries.
Hi Kosovo cant play against Bosnia
best case
denmark/croatia
Rumania/slovakia
ireland
Luxemburg/Belarus
andorra
any pot 6
worst case
belgium/france/spain/germany
any of pot 2 they are no world beaters at all
ireland
bosnia/slovenia/montenegro/albania
kosovo/cyprus/armenia
any pot 6 for Germany
my hunch
Spain
Ukraine
Ireland
Montenegro
Albania
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