Are there any bookies in our midst?
If they're available, take the bookies' odds on each of the games involving the top 4 sides.
Apply those odds to all the combinations of results that would get us in the top 2.
I'd imagine we'd be pretty short odds - at least relative to the other teams -in every case.
Put another way, out of all the possible outcomes, most of the realistic ones favour us getting at least second. No?
Honestly, I even think we can slip up in Cyprus and get at least second.
Updated with the draw possiblilites, there are now 27 (!!) possibly outcomes, not counting Ireland losing any of the remaining 3 games - I'm not adding them in because, quite frankly, if we do lose any of them, we're out.
http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Permutations.html
Brilliant stuff with the speadsheet.
Maybe you can help with a nagging worry I have. According to FIFA regulations (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/t/doc.html):
In the league system the ranking in each group is determined as follows:
(a) greater number of points obtained in all the group matches;
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above criterion, their ranking shall be determined as follows:
(b) greater number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
(c) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
(d) greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned;
(e) goal difference in all the group matches;
(f) greater number of goals scored in all the group matches;
(g) a play-off on neutral ground.
What happens is all the ramaining games between the top 4 are draws? We're already at a disadvantage against Israel as they have a better head to head against us (one more away goal). Will two 0-0s against the Swiss and France be enough for us?
Together with all our hearts.
I don't think away goals can count against us - no mention of it above.
Check this out though:
What happens if?
Swiss & Israel draw
We lose to France
Swiss beats France
We beat Swiss
(or we beat france, France beats Swiss, Swiss beat us)
No clear winner / runner-up can be restablished under the head-to-heads.
I guess group GD will apply. In which case a big win may be necessary!
Don't mean to pick holes in your hard work, but:
"If Ireland lose either of the two games, then we are out of the running for qualification, so let's only focus on the 3 remaining possibilities:
1 - Beat France and beat Switzerland
2 - Beat France and draw with Switzerland
3 - Draw with France and beat Switzerland"
i) We can lose one match, say against France and still qualify.
ii) There are 4 remaining possibilities, discounting any loss:
Win / Win
Win / Draw
Draw / Win
Draw / Draw
Ceci n'est pas une signature
our lack of goals against the poorer sides cud b crucial then..
we need to win all our 3 remaining games. We can do it. we have the players and were at home. i think we will at least win against the swizz and cyprus. i think israel and swiss will draw and im not sure about france swizz game.
Actually (and do forgive my insolence in correcting someone on my first postOriginally Posted by geysir
), according to FIFA's regulations:
Note (d), which, in case this plague of ties keeps till the end, would put the "top 4" in this order:In the league system, the ranking in each group is determined as
follows:
(a) greater number of points obtained in all the group matches;
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above criterion,
their ranking shall be determined as follows:
(b) greater number of points obtained in the group matches
between the teams concerned;
(c) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned;
(d) greater number of goals scored in the group matches between
the teams concerned;
(e) goal difference in all the group matches;
(f) greater number of goals scored in all the group matches;
(g) a play-off on neutral ground.
Israel - 6 (2 vs. Swiss, 2+1 vs. Ireland, 1+0 vs. France). 1 left to play.
Ireland - 4 (1 vs. Swiss, 1+2 vs. Israel, 0 vs. France ). 2 left to play.
Switzerland - 3 (1 vs. Ireland, 2 vs. Israel, 0 vs. France ). 3 left to play.
France - 1 ( 1 vs. Israel, 0 vs. Ireland, 0 vs. Swiss ). 3 left to play.
Personally, I don't think it would come to that (as great as it'd be to see Israel at the top and France trailing at 4th). I have a feeling that the Swiss would come on top due to great performances against Israel and France.
Oh, and in the interest of proper disclosure: Go Israel!
Just been looking at the goal difference thing as there is a good
chance it will come into play in this tight group.
......................MP W D L GF GA Pts GD
Ireland Republic..7 3 4 0 11 4 13 +7
Switzerland....... 6 3 3 0 13 4 12 +9
Israel ...............7 2 5 0 10 8 11 +2
France .............6 2 4 0 5 1 10 +4
Cyprus .............6 0 1 5 4 12 1
Faroe Islands.... 6 0 1 5 3 17 1
Seems we are not doing to bad with just the swiss ahead of us on gola difference.
I am thinking that we could draw against france and still top
the group on goal difference which would be useful.
However drawing againt the swiss would be dangerous as they
are ahead on goal difference.
Still a long way to go though but just trying to make some sense
of the table!
I'm one of those who completely lose the rag after awful results like the last 2 Israel matches and starts shouting about how we're crap, Kerr must go, let's hope we get kicked out of this soon to save heartbreak later type histrionics. Takes me a while to let it all go but there you go.
My take on this.....Exactly the way we all assumed at the start. France to top the group and us second. Israel are not good and will lose points, prob against the Faroes. The Swiss are poor also. We should beat them and if we don't I'll be shouting about how we're crap, Kerr has to go etc, etc .
The fact that the group is wide open is testament to the fact that France are in transition and not that good, Switzerland are mediocre and we, despite having one of our better sides in a while, have not shown we're a decent national side.
Like many, I believe that France at some point in this campaign will "come good". By that same token, so will we. Including the draw away against the French we've underachieved. THe time is now........C'mon Ireland.
He's right, isn't he?
City definetly have the best bands playing at half-time.
O'Bama - "Eerah yeah, I'd say we can alright!"
G.O'Mahoney Trapattoni'll sort ém out!!
One last time..if anyone..anywhere..has a problem with this, YOU edit it!!
err, ahem, seriously though, this looks on the money. And it's got colours this time around, so it's much easier to read!!
http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin197...mutations.html
Last edited by tetsujin1979; 13/06/2005 at 3:05 PM.
Excellent work. Though I do have an inkling that Cyprus or the Faroes will pull off an upset with a draw before the group is done. Maybe the Faroes will draw at home to Israel and Cyprus a draw at home against the Swiss or away to France...
"Jacques Santini...will be greeted in every dugout of the country by "one-nil, one-nil" - Clive Tyldsley, 89th minute of France-England June 13, 2004.
"Ooooohhhh Nooooooo" Bobby Robson 91st minute.
Great work, again.
If you were blindfolded & had to throw a dart at that page, what are the chances of it landing on a white square?
Hmmm, good question that. Half a mo.
<minutes of hasty coding later>
Page updated with answer to Stuttgart's question -
Ireland have 28 chances of topping the table
Ireland have 21 chances of making the playoffs
There are 32 chances of Ireland not qualifying
Last edited by tetsujin1979; 13/06/2005 at 4:02 PM.
Tetsujin,
Are you ina relationship of any kind? Just wondering...
Here they come! It’s the charge of the “Thanks” Brigade!
err, no, I'm single at the momentTetsujin,
Are you ina relationship of any kind? Just wondering...
Bored out of my tree at work, so I worked on the table manually first, then I threw some code together to generate it automatically. It's linked at the bottom of the page
Fair play, much easier to see whats going on now that it has colours.
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