QuoteAssuming everyone beats the 2 minnows, am I right in thinking that a win and a draw from our 2 home games will guarantee us 2nd place (and probably 1st place if even 1 result goes our way)?
Updated with the weekend's results - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip
Assuming everyone beats the 2 minnows, am I right in thinking that a win and a draw from our 2 home games will guarantee us 2nd place (and probably 1st place if even 1 result goes our way)?
A win tomorrow, plus a win and a draw in our last home games, coupled with a win away to Cyprus gives us 20 points.
Ireland's remaining fixtures:
Faroes away
France home
Cyprus away
Swiss home
France's remaining fixtures:
Faroes home
Ireland away
Swiss away
Cyprus home
Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
Cyprus away
France home
Ireland away
Israel's remaining games
Swiss away
Faroes away
Faroes home
Assume the top 4 win all their remaining games against the bottom 2 (not entirely unreasonable)
Ireland will have 16 points
France will have 16 points
Israel will have 17 points
Switzerland will have 15 points
Ireland's remaining fixtures:
France home
Swiss home
France's remaining fixtures:
Ireland away
Swiss away
Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
France home
Ireland away
Israel's remaining games
Swiss away
Assume we draw with France and beat Switzerland:
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 17 points
1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 20 points
3 teams on 20 points, goal difference decides who goes through
or
2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second
or
3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify with France, goal difference to decide 1st and second
Assume we draw with Switzerland and beat France
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 17 points
1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second
2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second
3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify, goal difference/results decide 2nd spot between France and Switzerland
so if we do get a draw and a win, only one combination of results - Switzerland losing to both France and Israel could see us out, and even then only on goal difference.
Basically we cannot afford to lose any game left in the qualifying series.
And my head hurts!!
Last edited by tetsujin1979; 07/06/2005 at 3:54 PM.
I think the most likely outcome is that we draw with France at home and go into the last game knowing that a win will put us through and a draw will put us out or in the playoffs depending on goal difference etc. I am preparted to go into the last game knowing a win will put us through. Can you imagine Lansdowne Road that night.
In Trap we trust
If we draw with france and beat the swiss we should win the group outright
but only if the swiss and french draw with each other.
..ah to hell with it lets just win all the bloody games and be done with it
I'm sure your head does hurt. Get back to your play station
Put another way, 20 points (including a draw against France) will WIN us the group outright unless
(a) There's a positive result between Switzerland & France
(b) Israel beat Switzerland which will give them 20 points (& my suspicion is we'll have a better GD than Israel)
If in (a) Switzerland beat France they could realistically get to 21 points. If France beat Switzerland France would move to 20 points and as they still have the minnows at home I'd guess their GD will be better than ours.
Even if we lose to France we'll secure second as long as (a) Isreal don't win in Switzerland or (b) Switzerland doesn't beat France.
It's hard to believe but there's still some room for error here. Or put another way, I'd still have us as favourites to finish at least second.
But we'll win all 4 anyway.
Last edited by Stuttgart88; 07/06/2005 at 4:11 PM.
Tetjusin no wonder your head hurts. I feel an awful lot better after reading your assessment of the results. The one combination that could see us out is the swiss losing to both france and israel. I cant see them losing to israel at home. Itll be an interesting next 4 months. It will go down to the last game against the swiss. We owe them a good hiding and to put them out aswell would be great. NB That away trip to cyprus we have could be a crucial game going into the final one with swiss especially with the french playing the swiss on the same day.
it looks pretty certain that its gona go down to goal difference based on that. we need a big result 2mor nite, cuz i reckon the french will give faroes a good hiding in paris, and the swiss beat them 6 nil.
I know its stupid talk but makes you sick thinkin that if we had held on in israel for a win, and beaten them on sat like we shud hav, we probably could hav lost to both france and the swiss and still hav gone through, dpending on results. But i know... wont matter cuz wer gona beat them anyway
[QUOTE=tetsujin1979]A win tomorrow, plus a win and a draw in our last home games, coupled with a win away to Cyprus gives us 20 points.
Fair play Tetsujin, agree that if Swiss draw with France & we beat the Swiss & draw with France we will have 20 points assuming we beat Faroes & Cyprus. Still looks good for us...
We can still make the playoffs by winning 3 and allowing for a defeat at the hands of France. But that would hinge on ourselves and France beating the Swiss and the Swiss beating Israel.
Do a few second place teams go through as best runner ups or are all second placed teams into a playoff?
Best second place will hardly come from our group anyway with all the draws....
The two best second placed teams automatically qualify. With the results so far that would appear to be the loser of Holland/Czech Rep and Croatia/Sweden or maybe Poland/England.Originally Posted by holidaysong
Also what is the tiebreaker if teams are level? Is it goal difference or head to head results?
"Jacques Santini...will be greeted in every dugout of the country by "one-nil, one-nil" - Clive Tyldsley, 89th minute of France-England June 13, 2004.
"Ooooohhhh Nooooooo" Bobby Robson 91st minute.
tetsujin1979
thank you so much for that mammoth effort.....saved me a job...i feel on top of the world now after being as low as i've ever been after an irish result....i agree that we will draw with france and absolutely hockey the swiss on the last day..its our destiny to go to germany and its the swiss' destiny to realise that their temporary hold on the top of the table is only that...temporary
cheers mate
I have us top of the group from the Swiss on goal difference by 1 goal!
We beat France 1 0 al la Holland 2001 and draw with the swiss 3 3 on the last nail biting day...
The Swiss and French Draw.
We beat The Faroes 3 1 and Cyprus 4 nil...Fingers crossed anyway
Israel lose to the Swiss...God damn that would be good....
How did you come with that may i ask???
now the 3-3 with the swiss.....can you tell me were we 3-0 up after 30minutes only for Kerr to change it and for us to let the swiss back in with 3 goals.lol....that would be funny.
And McAteer is going to come out of international retirement for the France game and score the winner 4 years on from the Holland game.....WOW.
But i would love Israel to go to the World Cup.....could you imagine.
Can see another freaky night scaring the **** out of us with loads of goals. I'm thinking of going on the waiting list for another heart just thinking bout it but I can see it happening. The france match is gonna be the cagey one. With everything to play for there will be goals in the Swiss one.
Israel will not go the World Cup and World cup will be better for it.
Best piece I've read in ages
Never eat yellow snow!!
Israel are on par with the Swiss. Home advantage might give it to the Swiss though we'll all be hoping for a draw I'm sure.
Well either you've nicked it or your that Joe McCarthy bloke from the Soccercentral website.
Keep up the good work
Never eat yellow snow!!
Nope, it's me, I posted the same thing in the soccercentral message board, and the site admin published it on the main site.Well either you've nicked it or your that Joe McCarthy bloke from the Soccercentral website.
Keep up the good work
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks