Gavin Bazunu G Standard Liege (loan from Southampton) b.2002

[SkStu]

Yeah, obviously. It's not like we have another keeper who, although not playing every week, has turned in highly impressive performances for club and country and is one of the highest rated young keepers in the PL. I'm not anti-Bazunu, but the argument that he's an automatic starter, even when in questionable form, just because he's playing, is deeply illogical and a little biased. If we applied that criteria consistently, we'd be putting out some rather eccentric selections.

Is 20 year old Bazunu not one of the highest rated young keepers in the PL who has turned in highly impressive performances for club and country and is playing every week?

[Stuttgart88]

Yeah, obviously. It's not like we have another keeper who, although not playing every week, has turned in highly impressive performances for club and country and is one of the highest rated young keepers in the PL. I'm not anti-Bazunu, but the argument that he's an automatic starter, even when in questionable form, just because he's playing, is deeply illogical and a little biased. If we applied that criteria consistently, we'd be putting out some rather eccentric selections.

But when it counted in an almost like for like situation Kelleher stayed rooted and a dangerous Ukrainian free went straight into the middle of his goal.

Right now I don't really trust either in well-delivered crosses.

[pineapple stu]

Is 20 year old Bazunu not one of the highest rated young keepers in the PL who has turned in highly impressive performances for club and country and is playing every week?

I'd question the "highly impressive performances" bit there.

There was an interesting post on the Bazunu thread on the Southampton forum at the weekend -

The best way to judge keepers statistically is post-shot expected goals, as it actually takes into account the level of the shot being taken. If a player scores from 40 yards from a shot of 0.01 xG, it doesn't reflect properly on the fact that a keeper has a far larger chance than 0.01 of saving it. Bazunu has a PSxG of -11.1, which means statistically he's conceded 41 goals where the expectation is just 25.9 [I'll add - that should be 29.9 I think - it excludes own goals but not sure you can remove them from one and but the other] The most interesting thing about that to me is the fact that 25.9 is actually the 6th lowest in the league, behind just Newcastle, City, Arsenal, Brighton and United. 5 times who are a million miles further up the league than we are. This indicates that we haven't been terrible defensively this season, we've just been drastically let down by a goalkeepers underperformance. For comparison to the rest of the league, the next worst is Leeds (Meslier) at -5.8.

It's actually statistically the worst season by a goalkeeper in Premier League history. Bazunu has also made 54 saves in the league, with only Arsenal, Brighton and City's keepers making less. This has him at a 55% save rate, meaning he's now almost conceding a goal for any save he has to make. We have had 92 shots on target against us, which again is within the top 5 of the league. The argument here could be that our defenders are constantly leaving him in situations where he's not able to make the saves, but that's why the PSxG number above disproves that point.

I don't know where the comparable stat on every other PL season comes from so I'll put out that disclaimer straight away. But we've seen how many soft goals they've let in this season.

Neither keeper is an ideal option right now. Kelleher needs a move and that's been said over and again. But to say our alternatives in nets are "minimal" isn't true and to suggest minutes played is the only way of picking a team isn't true either (Firmino or Che Adams for example?)

[Eirambler]

To be fair to Bazunu, most of the goals he has conceded are ones he wouldn't be expected to save. Maybe the stats don't reflect that but I'd be taking stats like XG and expected saves with a massive pinch of salt anyway, they're not really factual stats that you can prove to be true like goals, assists, shots and saves.

Not that's he hasn't had a few clangers as well, but I've seen far worse keepers in the Premier League than him, there are worse ones right now, such as Danny Ward who is absolutely awful.

[Kingdom]

To be fair to Bazunu, most of the goals he has conceded are ones he wouldn't be expected to save. Maybe the stats don't reflect that but I'd be taking stats like XG and expected saves with a massive pinch of salt anyway, they're not really factual stats that you can prove to be true like goals, assists, shots and saves.

Not that's he hasn't had a few clangers as well, but I've seen far worse keepers in the Premier League than him, there are worse ones right now, such as Danny Ward who is absolutely awful.

Any fan that quotes XG stats, or PTSD stats (or any acronym you want to choose yourself) in analysis of a players performance is an absolute ****tard in my eyes.
It's a bluffers tool that cannot be qualified when qualification is absolutely required and no amount of statistics will convince me otherwise.

[SkStu]

I'd question the "highly impressive performances" bit there.

There was an interesting post on the Bazunu thread on the Southampton forum at the weekend -



I don't know where the comparable stat on every other PL season comes from so I'll put out that disclaimer straight away. But we've seen how many soft goals they've let in this season.

Neither keeper is an ideal option right now. Kelleher needs a move and that's been said over and again. But to say our alternatives in nets are "minimal" isn't true and to suggest minutes played is the only way of picking a team isn't true either (Firmino or Che Adams for example?)

Yeah, thats fair - was biting the lip for sure quoting that part but, in playing it out a bit, he won 2 player of the season awards at Portsmouth and has won save of the month in the PL in his debut season (not a huge deal granted). I'll take the stats above at face value but Southampton have been so soft in the centre in the majority of games this season, irrespective of what the poster above states. It has been visible in most games I have watched of theirs this season. Bazunu is definitely having a hard time adjusting and it is a really difficult fishbowl environment to be making such a step up but he is more or less holding his own and he is holding his spot.

The bottom line with Kelleher is we just don't know. We don't have a reasonable sample - of any kind - to compare it to. We can't even look at a couple of seasons in L1... I agree that neither keeper is an ideal option at the moment and, in full disclosure, I wouldn't be overly worried if Kelleher had to step in for us. But when you weigh it all up, and consider that the Irish jersey is Bazunu's to lose, the default answer is also the most logical one.

[ifk101]

But we've seen how many soft goals they've let in this season.

Conceded two goals at home to a L2 team when Bazunu was "dropped". The soft goals are more a team issue rather than specific to one player, no?

[pineapple stu]

Conceded two goals at home to a L2 team when Bazunu was "dropped". The soft goals are more a team issue rather than specific to one player, no?

What, you mean the two penalties? Are penalties soft goals for a keeper to concede now? Weird.

Yeah, thats fair - was biting the lip for sure quoting that part but, in playing it out a bit, he won 2 player of the season awards at Portsmouth and has won save of the month in the PL in his debut season (not a huge deal granted).

Well he was only one year at Portsmouth so he'd have had a hard time winning two Player of the Season awards!

And making one top-drawer save doesn't offset the many weak goals let in (and then the two howlers against Leicester are on top of that). In fact, that's the point of a broad statistical approach - to even things out and remove bias. And there's definitely green-tinted glasses at play here.

Any fan that quotes XG stats, or PTSD stats (or any acronym you want to choose yourself) in analysis of a players performance is an absolute ****tard in my eyes.
It's a bluffers tool that cannot be qualified when qualification is absolutely required and no amount of statistics will convince me otherwise.

I mean, it's clear you've made your mind up on that - and arguably it's more indicative rather than 100% factual, for sure - but any counter-argument that includes the bit in bold is the argument of an absolute ****tard. Sorry.

[SkStu]

He won the player’s player and club player of the season awards. I did also point out that the save award is not a big deal by and of itself.

The argument is re Kelleher v Bazunu and that is still where your argument for CK is weak.

[pineapple stu]

Ah, ok - two awards in the one year. Teensy bit cheating (do you add in the Dublin Pompey Supporters' Club award, if God forbid there actually is one ), but can see where you're coming from.

But my argument is that -

Neither keeper is an ideal option right now. Kelleher needs a move and that's been said over and again. But to say our alternatives in nets are "minimal" isn't true and to suggest minutes played is the only way of picking a team isn't true either (Firmino or Che Adams for example?)

I don't think that's weak?

[ifk101]

What, you mean the two penalties? Are penalties soft goals for a keeper to concede now? Weird.

The soft goals are more a team issue rather than specific to one player, no?

Two avoidable penalties that led to goals. Soft goals. Team issue. Not difficult to understand really.

[pineapple stu]

The penalties weren't soft goals for the keeper.

The goals against Leeds, Brighton, Lincoln, Armenia, Palace (I think it was), etc, were all soft goals from the keeper's point of view. Others are to blame for most of them too of course, but the keeper takes blame there, and that's what shows up in the keeper-specific xG stats.

Not difficult to understand really.

[ifk101]

Others are to blame for most of them too of course

Weird.

Southampton are conceding soft goals with or without Bazunu in the team. See the goal conceded against Blackpool if you need a non-penalty example to help.

[SkStu]

Ah, ok - two awards in the one year. Teensy bit cheating (do you add in the Dublin Pompey Supporters' Club award, if God forbid there actually is one ), but can see where you're coming from.

But my argument is that -


I don't think that's weak?

Maybe I'm guilty of reading an argument that wasn't there. On the face of it, of course neither situation is ideal. I agreed with that basic premise. I don't recall too many saying that the alternatives are minimal (Travers is also viable) or that its just about playing time (playing time, however, indicates expected performance level and even 6/10 gives you a better baseline than 0/10).

However, even if you didnt say it in the most recent post, you have been fairly vocal in making a case over the last while that the Irish jersey should be Kelleher's. I can't find a way to agree with that based on everything we know and have seen about the two individuals who are most in competition.

[pineapple stu]

I do think Kelleher should start. I think Bazunu has been poor all season, including internationally; he was at fault for both goals against Armenia. Maybe it's a case Bazunu is definitely in poor form and Kelleher we don't really know about, so there's that hope. I think there's a lot of rewriting of just how poor Bazunu has been this season tbh. (And yes, he's 21 and still developing and yadda yadda yadda - but that's a medium term argument and not really a consideration for two weeks' time)

tommyc (post 633) said "we will take a lucky Bazunu over anything else we have currently (which is minimal)" and ifk101 said "The most convincing argument for a player's inclusion in the team is playing time." Both of those points are nonsense for me. Yes, Bazunu got lucky against Leicester, but he hasn't been lucky over the season as his stats show. And the other comment is plainly daft.

I'll also add I don't know why this topic gets people so het up that you see the sort of personal abuse posts we've seen on this page from Kingdom (very out of character in fairness) and ifk101.

[SkStu]

(I'm definitely not het up on this)

Why do you think Kelleher should start? What is the argument for him? To be fair, its easy to make the argument against the guy who is in the fishbowl but at the same time you have to be able to make an argument for the alternative and thats the bit i have yet to see in a convincing way. "He deserves it because hes being coached by a top class team" or "He deserves it because he is back up to the best in the world" is also the type of vacuous stuff that should cut no mustard here either. I do kind of get the attraction though - there is a saying here that the most popular player for the sask roughriders is the back-up quarterback. Its human nature in a way but it doesnt usually work out as simple as that.

If there has truly been a tendency to rewrite Bazunu's performance this year (not sure I fully agree with that - a few of his supporters have been very open about some of his performances), that goes both ways. There is another group who are silent after his good performances but are first to the trough when he makes an error or two in a game. And swticheroo when it comes to the small sample size we have for Kelleher (silent on the errors, talking up the good, enhancing the ordinary).

(FWIW, I dont think Kingdom was truly calling you a f-tard, more the source)

[paul_oshea]

Tbf I dont think Kingdom was having a go at you, more the people you quoted from PS. He talks a lot of nonsense but he doesnt ever stoop to that level.

I think both players are fighting it out to start on the bench. There are microcosmic examples of Bazunus issues because he's in a team with a shaky defense and fighting for survival - kelleher isnt even playing. All that said, they've proven in their appearances for Ireland facets of their game that are clearly not World class and I'm not sure gaining more first team appearances in the Premiership will rectify that. The jurys still out on that one.

[nigel-harps1954]

Kelleher has played 4 games in the PL. In total. The most convincing argument for a player's inclusion in the team is playing time. If Kenny has serious concerns about Bazunu's form, he'd have to give Max O'Leary fair consideration before turning to Kelleher.

Surprised a few more haven't picked up on this. Easily the best comment of the lot. A goalkeeper absolutely has to be playing regularly. Kelleher, for me, has definitely dropped down the pecking order further with O'Leary now playing regularly in the Championship.

Chat of Festy Ebosele in another thread went down the route of "you can't pick a player who has played 58 minutes of action in Serie A this season", to "Kelleher should be playing" despite not having a single minute of Premier League football this season. Two EFL Cup games and one FA Cup game is the sum total of his action in 2022/23 season.

There's even an argument for him not to make the squad altogether, given Bazunu, Travers and O'Leary have all seen something resembling regular game time this season between Premier League and Championship.

[pineapple stu]

There's even an argument for him not to make the squad altogether, given Bazunu, Travers and O'Leary have all seen something resembling regular game time this season between Premier League and Championship.

Ah there's not. Would you stop.

Chat of Festy Ebosele in another thread went down the route of "you can't pick a player who has played 58 minutes of action in Serie A this season", to "Kelleher should be playing" despite not having a single minute of Premier League football this season.

Yep - because there's other options to Festy at the moment. A guy playing week-in-week-out for a promotion-chasing Championship team (who's still not in the senior squad) was one example. That's in addition to Coleman, Brady, McClean, Doherty, etc. Festy is a youth prospect at a mid-table Serie A side. I don't think that's quite the same thing as a comparing sub keeper at one of the biggest clubs in the world against someone really struggling for form at the other end of the table. We're much more stuck for options in nets.

(I'm definitely not het up on this)

You're not, for sure. That's acknowledged alright. I noted the two who I thought were (in the past page anyway).

Why do you think Kelleher should start? What is the argument for him? To be fair, its easy to make the argument against the guy who is in the fishbowl but at the same time you have to be able to make an argument for the alternative

The argument is that Bazunu is having a really poor season and is badly off form, while Kelleher's generally looked more solid for us at international level (even if you want to pin the Ukraine goal on him). A third tier PotY award doesn't really matter here. It's not a great argument, I know - I've noted many times that this isn't ideal for anyone. Call it the default lesser of two evils.

(FWIW, I dont think Kingdom was truly calling you a f-tard, more the source)

I'm happy to buy into the xG idea - with the caveat that I'm sure it's not a 100% exact science, but it probably is a good indicator of performance. So on that basis, it's hard to argue that Kingdom's comment that "Any fan that quotes XG stats in analysis of a players performance is an absolute ****tard in my eyes" was anything other than personal.

[Stuttgart88]

Max O'Leary was beaten at his near post from outside the box on Saturday! Didn't look good but there might have been a deflection.