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Thread: What key indicators need to be present for the LOI to start back in June

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    What key indicators need to be present for the LOI to start back in June

    So we are looking to start back in June, what key health indicators do people feel need to be present for this to happen and do you think they will be resent by the proposed start up date.

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    Seasoned Pro Nesta99's Avatar
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    There's no easy answer tbh. A clean bill of health where there are no cases to spread which is unlikely, immunity of over 60% of the population which will take significant time, or treatment is found especially a vaccine which goes back to immunity. The logistics of administering a vaccine when one is found is a bit of a nightmare as every country scrambles for what will be a limited supply. Alternatively maybe if we all get to grips with the whole infection control protocols and there is a downward trend in new cases then restrictions could be lifted eg there isnt a risk of the health service being overwhelmed. I think June is ambitious. But society will have to return to normality somehow irrespective of the numbers and it could just be a risk we will all live with - the alternative is to keep things as they are and possibly lockdown society for months to come and that will bring its own issues as people get impatient, rebel against restrictions, looting happens, so what will be the lesser of the 2 evils. Many families will be scarred by the end of this i fear. September, when the decide on schools reopening etc then the likes of LoI will go again. But its all guess work - if every single person in the country was compliant with the advice being given then June would be realistic but when ye hear of pubs still opening and sneaking punters in and people saying they dont care well that will perpetuate the problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingswood Rover View Post
    So we are looking to start back in June, what key health indicators do people feel need to be present for this to happen and do you think they will be resent by the proposed start up date.
    No new cases for fourteen days id say is a key one for anything to get back to normal. What clubs will be around by the time that happens is another question.

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    It's very possible there won't be any more league games at all this year. It's good to have a June target but that particular restart date seems to be with European games in mind as much as anything and gives people something to hope for.

    Would UEFA insist qualifying games go ahead behind closed doors even if the LOI doesn't start up again?

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Lilywhites View Post
    It's very possible there won't be any more league games at all this year. It's good to have a June target but that particular restart date seems to be with European games in mind as much as anything and gives people something to hope for.

    Would UEFA insist qualifying games go ahead behind closed doors even if the LOI doesn't start up again?
    Thats my thinking on this, until we have a vaccine program that in is mid roll-out i cannot seen normal life resuming. TBH i do understand the Herd immunity concept to make a judgement but presumably that would come quicker with a lot more deaths than our current interventions but would still take the rest of the year to work through.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Lilywhites View Post
    It's very possible there won't be any more league games at all this year. It's good to have a June target but that particular restart date seems to be with European games in mind as much as anything and gives people something to hope for.

    Would UEFA insist qualifying games go ahead behind closed doors even if the LOI doesn't start up again?
    Id say so. They wouldnt care about our troubles.

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    The British banked everything on the herd immunity theory but that was going to cause between 200-260k estimated deaths so they changed things up, it could well be the quickest solution and might even have resulted in less deaths overall but ethically could ye write off 200k people like that?!. There is a balance and as younger people catch it and build up immunity then it will help lessen the risk to the vulnerable groups. I cant see how they could have a vaccination done and then a program rolled out by June. It will be a tough one for UEFA to call after postponing Euro2020 but they are under pressure now from sponsors and tv companies to reimburse deals. So they could well have European games in July/August behind closed doors as can they afford to postpone another competition? I understand club in England looking to protect their positions but threatening legal action if leagues are not completed is not really grasping how things might be for he next 6 months or so. Fook knows how they will schedule domestic games and the Europe on top - we are on the lucky side to have confirmed our places for 20/21 European comps with summer football. I hope UEFA have significant cash reserves as they could well be compensating clubs for games not played while losing out on other income. What a mess!!

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    Modern developed societies and economies will not tolerate months on end of this shutdown, sure plenty of people here are already resisting against social distancing after a week. I think if things are back heading back to normal by June then it will be due to an effective anti-viral treatment becoming available and I'd be very doubtful about that prospect
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    Don't think anyone anyone can say with certainty what targets we need to hit for some form of normality, numbers seem to have stopped rising in China now so it's probably a case of wait and see how they do it.

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    I dont know if the Chinese methods could be replicated here tbh. Absolute and total lockdown? Maybe it will need to come to that. There is some work on tweaking anti-malarials that have shown promise like chloroquine which we'd have lots in stock as produced in Ireland. A break through like this could put a stop to this practically overnight so here's hoping.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nesta99 View Post
    I dont know if the Chinese methods could be replicated here tbh. Absolute and total lockdown? Maybe it will need to come to that. There is some work on tweaking anti-malarials that have shown promise like chloroquine which we'd have lots in stock as produced in Ireland. A break through like this could put a stop to this practically overnight so here's hoping.
    It's not about the measures they put in place to stop the spread because that's horses for courses it's at what point they decide its safe to start rolling back those measures because that point will be similar across the board no matter the measures in place

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    It wont be similar though. We can certainly see how things pan out elsewhere, but what works in China wont be necessarily what works here, as we have seen in Italy. This coming week will be the indication of where we lie and how systems have or will work here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nesta99 View Post
    It wont be similar though. We can certainly see how things pan out elsewhere, but what works in China wont be necessarily what works here, as we have seen in Italy. This coming week will be the indication of where we lie and how systems have or will work here.
    Again I'm not talking about what actions are done I'm talking about what is taken as the signs of having reach a point where normality can begin to resume. Bet that a week no new domestic cases, a week no new cases at all, two weeks, whatever

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    I too was referring less about current strategy and more how society can resume in my last post but I wasnt being clear about that. It's likely that things will return to 'normal' on a phased basis anyway. The different ways that covid has been dealt with, imo, will determine the markers for lifting restrictions so action taken now will be directly linked to how and when we move on. We could lift retrictions here but keep borders closed for example. Nobody, in any country, has an exit plan as it is both too early and what may happen here may not happen in the UK/China due to the initial differing strategies. Irrespective of easing trends I suspect that society will have changed permanently in many ways and maybe for the better - what was serious and important to people may not be so important due to all this.

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    Hard to know if mass gatherings will be allowed to resume by June alright. I think by that stage we'll see some relaxation of social distancing, with vulnerable categories being encouraged to maintain distancing, but many other areas returning to relative normality (assuming the curve has peaked). The main reasoning being that, the virus will remain circulating and can't be stopped at this stage, so as long as numbers are controlled there'll have to be some acceptance that a lot of things go back to normal. Mass gatherings is probably more risky though, especially over 500 people, so it may be a bit longer before the league is allowed to return. August/September might be more realistic as it will be easier to gauge how the relaxing of other measures in effecting the number of cases. I'd say it's very unlikely we get to a stage where there's weeks on end without new cases, at least not before a vaccine is readily available and that's going to be next year at best.

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    I note Trump is calling it 'back to work' for next Monday with those classed as most vulnerable to be isolated from the rest. I suppose its something of an exit although as he signed off his tweet with 'landslide2020' its pretty obvious where his priorities are and it isnt in public health! Its true that the virus is likely to continue circulating but as long as there isnt a surge that would banjax the health system and people can be treated properly and in a timely manner, well that would be acceptable to get thing back to normality. Timescale could do a lot of damage to many sporting bodies by then. The league could probably return a bit earlier if people show a proper willingness to distance and with signiicantly reduced capacity. One (of the very few) advantage of Oriel Park is that its is open and a fairly big footprint which could allow some effective distancing compared to a compact ground like Drogheda or St Pats - but thats all at a push really.

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    I think its optimistic but good to see a date put forward all the same, something to work towards.

    Like thousands of others who can, I am WFH (work is based in city centre) but don't see myself back there / on trains until June, so its a fair old leap to think football will be back. I think people are probably also thinking summer holidays away even in July and Aug are also optimistic at this stage, could be a long road back, who knows. Maybe if 80% take the whole thing seriously we might as a country have a chance, I think 20% in any society, maybe 10-15% will always be the problem, if we can get most to comply with restrictions, we have a chance, and not just for football to return !
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nesta99 View Post
    I note Trump is calling it 'back to work' for next Monday with those classed as most vulnerable to be isolated from the rest. I suppose its something of an exit although as he signed off his tweet with 'landslide2020' its pretty obvious where his priorities are and it isnt in public health! Its true that the virus is likely to continue circulating but as long as there isnt a surge that would banjax the health system and people can be treated properly and in a timely manner, well that would be acceptable to get thing back to normality. Timescale could do a lot of damage to many sporting bodies by then. The league could probably return a bit earlier if people show a proper willingness to distance and with signiicantly reduced capacity. One (of the very few) advantage of Oriel Park is that its is open and a fairly big footprint which could allow some effective distancing compared to a compact ground like Drogheda or St Pats - but thats all at a push really.
    Trump is the last person I'd look to right now. He doesn't even control half the stuff that's going on in the US - the individual States do. The Governors are the ones who will decide what happens in America and when, not Trump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    Trump is the last person I'd look to right now. He doesn't even control half the stuff that's going on in the US - the individual States do. The Governors are the ones who will decide what happens in America and when, not Trump.
    Oh wasnt,, I should have added in rolly eyes at the end of the 'someting of an exit' comment. Him wishing away the impact of this isnt going to stop the impact, I hope this complacency will be his undoing and #landslide202 happens, just not the way he wants. It is interesting to see how Governers have broken rank from federal opinion.

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    A few things need to happen to get things back up and running imo:
    1. A vaccine
    2. A treatment
    3. Faster testing (similar to a pregnancy test with quick result).
    The sooner they get these the sooner things will get back to normal. maybe stating the obvious but hard to see football or any other social gatherings happening without these.
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