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Thread: Covid 19 - LOI Ramifications

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    International Prospect Nesta99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    You have some seasonal effects because people spend more time indoors - which is pretty definitively where covid spreads best - when it's raining sideways outside. You get the same effect with all airborne diseases like colds and flus. Most of Europe seemed to be doing well last summer, but then they'd all just exited or were still under savage lockdowns and other places, Brazil for example, was absolutely not. 87% of the world's population lives in the northern hemisphere, so the global figures for cases and deaths per day (e.g. here) are telling: they show only a very modest decrease in deaths and new cases last northern summer.
    Some season effect, well ok but that is to do with peoples behavior patterns rather than a seasonal change to the virus transmission itself - is that enough to mitigate for lifting restrictions and taking the risk on an 'if' people do x. Irish summers are a mixed bag so no absolutes on all time spent outdoors. So there was little drop in cases/deaths in the northern Summer period - theres your argument that there is only a 'modest decrease' in covid cases in summer time no? Differences in samples from different times of the year will currently show trends heavily influenced by restrictions and total lockdown eg a drop in cases from May to October seen here. It would take a number of years to extrapolate real trends from season to season. There was one virologist's prediction last Spring and he seems to have been on the ball most (wish I could remember the name) - that we will continuously go through peaks and troughs as we lockdown and then ease restrictions and end up in lockdown again (or circuit breakers as 'lockdown' was being named) etc. until there is a vaccine (at that time there was none) or we achieved a zero covid island and closed borders. So while the cycle may have aligned seasonally over the last 12-16months it wont necessarily continue in that manner, while there may some seasonal deviation for the reasons you mention.

    Here is a similar graph of ICU cases(and projections) from the UK but same idea if it were in the cycle of restrictions/ease restrictions = covid decrease/increase.

    I dont see how we could reasonably risk the suppression of cases by holding even 25% capacity crowds in the Aviva until the breaking of the above cycle is very likely, so vaccination of 75% of the population and really really hope that there isnt a vaccine resistant variant from Brazil/India or anywhere where there is a significant outbreak or we could be back to step 1. There are a number of confirmed cases of the India variant in the UK and it is a given that that number will rise after the large scale close proximity gatherings across England recently. Crazy stuff when 75% has not been achieved with 1st jab never mind 2nd. Political Russian Roulette and hoping to surf the wave of early vaccination momentum. Seeing how Scotland with a lot lower incidence rate, similar vaccination status, yet are only considering lifting some restrictions yet. We are far off the levels of vaccination to be able to agree to UEFA's demands on hosting Euro2020 games and the govt made the right call in the current circumstances!
    Last edited by Nesta99; 22/04/2021 at 3:56 PM.

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  3. #1342
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    I agree completely. I just tend to take the contrary position in an argument if I think a point is being dismissed without sufficient care.

    I will just note that it doesn't matter why risk might be lower in the summer - behavioural or viral - as long as it is. In any case, we agree that there isn't much evidence that it's enough lower to rely on it as a factor.
    Last edited by John83; 22/04/2021 at 10:31 PM.
    Vaccinated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightstory View Post
    'Actual evidence'? It's very evident that the virus is at it's worst in winter and less lethal in summer. NOBODY disagrees with that. And March is not high summer.
    As I say, if I'm wrong about this I'll happily admit it.
    We shall see...
    Thats misinformation. Any statistics on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths show no link between seasons, but very strong correlations with social restrictions.
    There's so much data on it at this stage its not really even up for debate.

    Perhaps you read into Trumps "itll be gone by the summer" tweet last year a little too much?

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    International Prospect Nesta99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    I agree completely. I just tend to take the contrary position in an argument if I think a point is being dismissed without sufficient care.

    I will just note that it doesn't matter why risk might be lower in the summer - behavioural or viral - as long as it is. In any case, we agree that there isn't much evidence that it's enough lower to rely on it as a factor.
    Thats fair enough, I can often do the same and have done in this thread. It's easy to lump in from one perspective and not consider the different angles. Things rarely tend to be totally bad or good and especially with the unprecedented nature of all of this erring on the side of caution could be the quickest way out. I originally dismissed covid as scaremongering by tabloid press and obviously couldnt have been more wrong (though I doubt the tabloids really knew what was coming either)!

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    So I presume that you're all in agreement that that no crowds should be allowed into any stadiums hosting the competition? That by allowing crowds into grounds (even at 25 per cent capacity) EUEFA are being as reckless as Trump in the US or Bolsinaro in Brazil?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightstory View Post
    So I presume that you're all in agreement that that no crowds should be allowed into any stadiums hosting the competition? That by allowing crowds into grounds (even at 25 per cent capacity) EUEFA are being as reckless as Trump in the US or Bolsinaro in Brazil?
    As? No, but some caution is advised. As I've said, I think we have higher priorities than stadia. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I think this summer is just coming a little early.
    Vaccinated.

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    I'd be interested in your definition of 'some caution is advised'? Should people be allowed in or not? Would a hundred people be acceptable? What's the difference between, for example, Dublin and Moscow? Not allowed in Dublin? Allowed in Moscow? Should there be a European standard?
    I'm no expert on graphs, but this link here would indicate that there were less infections in June/July last year that there were in March/April or Nov/December (for whatever reason; staying indoors? Warmer weather?). But maybe I've misread it somehow?

    https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-p...ic-in-ireland/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightstory View Post
    So I presume that you're all in agreement that that no crowds should be allowed into any stadiums hosting the competition? That by allowing crowds into grounds (even at 25 per cent capacity) EUEFA are being as reckless as Trump in the US or Bolsinaro in Brazil?
    I'm all for caution on this believe me. But sooner or later you need to make relaxations. With one quarter of the population having received at least on dose then I think these people should be given so extra license, we cant just wait till 5 million people are vaccinated to open the place up again. A 20% stadium of vaccinated Irish people would be a good news story, good PR and probably good for the mental psyche of the country. The place needs a lift and this could be the catalyst for some positivity.
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  12. #1349
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightstory View Post
    I'd be interested in your definition of 'some caution is advised'? Should people be allowed in or not? Would a hundred people be acceptable? What's the difference between, for example, Dublin and Moscow? Not allowed in Dublin? Allowed in Moscow? Should there be a European standard?
    I'm no expert on graphs, but this link here would indicate that there were less infections in June/July last year that there were in March/April or Nov/December (for whatever reason; staying indoors? Warmer weather?). But maybe I've misread it somehow?

    https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-p...ic-in-ireland/
    You might recall last Jun/Jul was just after the period of tightest lockdown, and one which people largely obeyed because of the novelty of it if nothing else. Of course it was going to have a lower infection rate than April (lockdown only starting) and Nov/Dec (restrictions relaxed ahead of Christmas, with the consequence that ICU was full by January). That doesn't at all back up your point that covid is less dangerous in summer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by redobit View Post
    I'm all for caution on this believe me. But sooner or later you need to make relaxations. With one quarter of the population having received at least on dose then I think these people should be given so extra license, we cant just wait till 5 million people are vaccinated to open the place up again. A 20% stadium of vaccinated Irish people would be a good news story, good PR and probably good for the mental psyche of the country. The place needs a lift and this could be the catalyst for some positivity.
    That's a reasonable and sensible response, but I'm still interested in whether people believe there should be crowds allowed at any Euro other venues. I'm getting the impression that everyone believes that there should be no crowds allowed anywhere?

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    Quote Originally Posted by redobit View Post
    A 20% stadium of vaccinated Irish people would be a good news story, good PR and probably good for the mental psyche of the country. The place needs a lift and this could be the catalyst for some positivity.
    You can't do things because it would be a good news story or because we all need a lift. That's why we tried to open the place up for Christmas, and look what happened.

    In addition, this Indian strain - which I think has been detected here - is a serious concern. It seems to be targeting younger people more than other strains, and it's not known if the vaccine is effective against it. India is almost out of medical oxygen and is recording a record number of cases, worse even than the US peak

    It doesn't seem wise to go back to 10k events with so large an unknown out there. We all want normality to return, but wishing it so won't make it happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    You might recall last Jun/Jul was just after the period of tightest lockdown, and one which people largely obeyed because of the novelty of it if nothing else. Of course it was going to have a lower infection rate than April (lockdown only starting) and Nov/Dec (restrictions relaxed ahead of Christmas, with the consequence that ICU was full by January). That doesn't at all back up your point that covid is less dangerous in summer.
    I didn't say it was less dangerous. But there was clearly less of a risk of infection. To get back to the point, do you think any people should be allowed into any games at any stadiums during the EUROs?

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    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    If you say there's less of a risk of infection (which there wasn't), then you are clearly arguing it's less dangerous. I mean, you've effectively given one definition of "less dangerous"

    The question of other stadia in the Euros isn't "the point" as you suggest. It's your own Cathy Newman "What you're saying is..." tangent where you're putting words in other posters' mouths. It's not a great method of debate tbh.

    My view, FWIW, is that each country is different and will have its own position. England is doing well with its vaccine rollout and could host crowds. Azerbaijan - I've no idea obviously. It's a decision for the authorities in each country.

    I do think though that there is a reasonably strong argument to be made for switching the finals to a single country so you only have one set of covid regulations to deal with, not a dozen

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    You can't do things because it would be a good news story or because we all need a lift. That's why we tried to open the place up for Christmas, and look what happened.

    In addition, this Indian strain - which I think has been detected here - is a serious concern. It seems to be targeting younger people more than other strains, and it's not known if the vaccine is effective against it. India is almost out of medical oxygen and is recording a record number of cases, worse even than the US peak

    It doesn't seem wise to go back to 10k events with so large an unknown out there. We all want normality to return, but wishing it so won't make it happen.
    That's not what Im saying in fairness. Im suggesting that we have 1.2 milion people vaccinated in this country and things need to be relaxed for these people sooner rather than later. 10,000 of the 1.2 million who have received a shot would seem a reasonable approach if it can work.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightstory View Post
    I didn't say it was less dangerous. But there was clearly less of a risk of infection. To get back to the point, do you think any people should be allowed into any games at any stadiums during the EUROs?
    We can only look after ourselves on this one. Every country will be making the best decision based on a host of different things. Crowds at all Euro games isint a one stop answer.
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    Well it is what you said, though I'll acknowledge that it's probably not the reasonimg behind your suggestion, which is fair enough.

    Yes, we have to open up at some stage, but with the Indian variant in particular, it seems needlessly risky to start with 10-12k crowd events.

    Also, how do you monitor who's been vaccinated? Do you check everyone on entry? What are stewards checking? Can documents be faked?

    And don't forget too that vaccinated people can still spread covid. Arguably a 20% vaccination rate is a dangerous time to reopen because a significant number of people will think and act as if they're immune, whereas they can add still infect others

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    And our group is gone to St Petersburg - https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2021...nt-petersburg/

    I think on balance it's the right decision

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    Another bit of Delaney's legacy up in smoke. Only wonder is it took this long to make the call.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    If you say there's less of a risk of infection (which there wasn't), then you are clearly arguing it's less dangerous. I mean, you've effectively given one definition of "less dangerous"

    The question of other stadia in the Euros isn't "the point" as you suggest. It's your own Cathy Newman "What you're saying is..." tangent where you're putting words in other posters' mouths. It's not a great method of debate tbh.


    My view, FWIW, is that each country is different and will have its own position. England is doing well with its vaccine rollout and could host crowds. Azerbaijan - I've no idea obviously. It's a decision for the authorities in each country.

    I do think though that there is a reasonably strong argument to be made for switching the finals to a single country so you only have one set of covid regulations to deal with, not a dozen
    'Putting words in other people's mouths'? What? I haven't done this AT ALL. I was merely asking what people thought about crowds in other stadia.
    But I agree with you about holding the tournament in one country. That would have been by far the most sensible thing to do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    And our group is gone to St Petersburg - https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2021...nt-petersburg/

    I think on balance it's the right decision
    Sure isint Delaney in London. He'll be happy out he can go to the games now.
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    Fergal: Ya, I have them here.
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