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Thread: General Election 2020

  1. #1
    Capped Player nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    General Election 2020

    So, it has been called.

    Saturday 8th February.

    Strange to be held on a Saturday. Only the second time a General Election will be held on a Saturday in Ireland since the very first Dáil election in 1918.

    Bookies have Fianna Fáil installed as favourites.
    Last edited by nigel-harps1954; 14/01/2020 at 12:49 PM.

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    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Fairly likely we'll see a switch of FF becoming larger party, but they'll be well short a majority. Question then is will a coalition (with Labour or the Greens?) be possible, or will it just be "Confidence and supply" with the names reversed. I'd suspect the latter.

    Greens will do well, Labour should recover a bit. Sinn Fein should at least hold-steady.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    Seasoned Pro passinginterest's Avatar
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    Hard to see any real significant changes. Labour haven't done enough to really revitalise but might take a couple more seats. Sinn Féin are in a really strange place and could go either way, seem to have gone a bit stale as have the more hard left parties, although some more of the hard left might move towards SF this time, they seem to be becoming more of a viable option for the middle class left (where Labour has lost out), the outpouring of nationalist sympathies after the RIC commemoration might work in their favour too. Greens should make a few more gains, but unlikely to be as much of an impact as the locals. Soc Dems looked like they had potential but failed to push on and compounded this would some poor decisions in the locals, unlikely to make any ground and none of the other new parties look like taking more than a seat or two. Independents might lose a few which will most likely go Green, or the big two. Hard to see a dramatic rise or fall for either FG or FF, it's bad timing for FG, they've had a run of really awful stuff (swing gate, Verona, broadband, children's hospital, overcrowding, homeless, RIC, rural broadband), I'm sure they'd have liked a few more months to spin their Budget spending on sports grants, roads, infrastructure etc. and to hopefully avoid anymore individual slip ups and to see overcrowding and homeless figures trending downwards. That's likely to see them lose a few seats, with the swing back towards FF for the most part (how soon we forget). As said above, most likely scenario is "confidence and supply" with the roles reversed and FF in the comfy chairs.

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    Director dahamsta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    Fairly likely we'll see a switch of FF becoming larger party, but they'll be well short a majority. Question then is will a coalition (with Labour or the Greens?) be possible, or will it just be "Confidence and supply" with the names reversed. I'd suspect the latter.
    That's why we're having an election IMO, they met last week and came to an agreement that confidence and supply between FG and FF will be the result whichever way the wind blows. Of course I don't know that for a fact, but it seems blatantly obvious to me.

    At this point I'm not sure it'll make much of a difference. I wasn't keen on Varadkar on becoming Taoiseach because he came across as a bullshirt artist beforehand, but at the outset I didn't think he did too badly. But then the money messages started happening, and that's just inexcusable. Plus of course the health service is still wrecked, housing is still appalling, the roads are still wrecked, etc, etc.

    I don't like Fianna Fail, at all, but I think I'd trust Micky Martin at the helm more than Varadkar at this point. Of course that would mean voting for Fianna Fail TD's, and I'm not sure I could bring myself to that. I'm in Cork East though, and generally speaking there's no-one to vote for here, they're all useless, awful, or both.

    The next battle to watch for will be Coveney vs. Varadkar. I assume they have a peace treaty, but I'd say Coveney's patience must be waning at this point.
    Last edited by dahamsta; 15/01/2020 at 11:48 AM.

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    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Coveney also looking quite good with his part in Stormont resuming.

    RTE had a piece on polls - https://www.rte.ie/news/election-202...poll-of-polls/ - which could be summed up by saying that very little is likely to change. By their metrics it's actually not all that unlikely that Fine Gael could come out ahead of Fianna Fail by a seat or two.

    Haven't a clue who to vote for. Not FG, FF or Labour, I'm still not convinced by Sinn Fein or the hard-left, and Aontu can f**k off. I'd look to the Soc Dems, but their candidate in my constituency is a muppet. No Ind's yet.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    Capped Player nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    Donegal will be interesting. Sinn Fein will look to regain two seats after making the disastrous choice to run three candidates last time out. Pearse Doherty is a cert and Padraig MacLochlainn should do well.

    Joe Mchugh and Thomas Pringle will fear for their seats. More likely Pringle will get his back than McHugh, who has been a disaster.

    Pat The Cope should retain his seat.

    Anyones guess after that, although Peter Casey throwing his hat in is an interesting one.

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    Club Member ForzaForth's Avatar
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    Seanie O'Shea, Chairman of Wexford FC, has been endorsed by Mick Wallace MEP and is standing in the election as an independent.

  8. #8
    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
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    Live in Cork South Central.

    The only constituency in the country that elected 2 FF TD's in 2011 in the aftermath of the biggest economic crash the country has ever seen.

    With that in mind I'm surprised they don't run a 3rd candidate.

    Michael Martin FF
    Michael McGrath FF
    Simon Coveney FG

    All 3 are certs - Donnacha O'Laoghaire is the SF seat holder. Beat off Jerry Buttimer by about 600 votes last time out so i'd imagine the last seat will be between them again. Ciaran Lynch (LAB) went from topping the poll with 12,000 odd first preference votes in 2011 to 2,400 last time - id expect the Lab vote to improve a bit - The Green party had a seat here in the not too distant past as a 5 seat constituency so it is not unimaginable that Lorna Bogue might make some headway but i suspect this may be 5 years too soon with the vote gathering powerhouses at the head of affairs which leaves little for the rest.
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    Seasoned Pro Kingdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dahamsta View Post
    I don't like Fianna Fail, at all, but I think I'd trust Micky Martin at the helm more than Varadkar at this point.
    You can take this request either way from someone who doesn't post in this forum regularly, but can I ask why?

    The next battle to watch for will be Coveney vs. Varadkar. I assume they have a peace treaty, but I'd say Coveney's patience must be waning at this point.
    I think it's just as likely - possibly moreso, that the next battle will be Martin vs McGrath.

    Interesting Mick's address on the EP website is listed as Ferrycarraig Park.
    Last edited by dahamsta; 20/01/2020 at 1:05 PM. Reason: Posts merged
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    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Not exactly a stellar opening day for Fine Gael, with news stories zeroing in attention on homelessness and "law & order". Yet a poll still ranks Leo as the most popular party leader, though not by much.

    Meanwhile, Sinn Fein will be hoping this doesn't become national news: https://extra.ie/2020/01/15/news/iri...n-leo-varadkar
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    Mother of God! He actually said: ‘Someone that knows what it’s like to have kids, maybe, hopefully, boys and girls, so when you’re creating policies and stuff that’s going to go on, you’re like: “right, that makes sense”.'

    As opposed to know what it's like to have those things like kids that aren't boys and girls, y'know, maybe, hopefully, unicorns or baby goats because that makes no sense either, but unlike Paddy I never intended it to.

    One to many kicks to the head, I think. Always knew MMA was dangerous.

    Meanwhile a bad opening day for FG. Instead of expressing concern, Leo turns a story about a homeless man injured when some jobsworth b*****d couldn't be bothered to look inside his tent before removing it with machinery into an attack on the FF Lord Mayor for not doing his job properly, and G-eoghan (G-eoghan, gone) Murphy's equally caring response is to remove his election poster from the scene of the incident. Have I just woken up in a dystopian re-run of the eighteenth century when posh boys and toffs lorded it over the peasants? Varadkar is proving what I've felt all along: that his only competency was avoiding trouble by avoiding doing anything at all, but that doesn't work when you're front and centre as Taoiseach. Promoted too early, like Murphy, Harris and Madigan - proof of the Peter Principle if ever it was needed: the cream will rise till it sours.

    Thought for Day 1
    FG's election's slogan should be: FG - putting the RIC into P - - - Ks.
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    First Team The Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    Meanwhile, Sinn Fein will be hoping this doesn't become national news: https://extra.ie/2020/01/15/news/iri...n-leo-varadkar
    It'd be a bit of mountain out of a molehill if it did.

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    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post

    Meanwhile, Sinn Fein will be hoping this doesn't become national news: https://extra.ie/2020/01/15/news/iri...n-leo-varadkar
    There we go: https://www.rte.ie/news/election-202...-fein-holohan/
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    Paddy Power have FF at 2/9 to win the most seats, with FG at 11/4, and have Michael Martin at 1/5 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar at 3/1.

    No idea how they have reached those odds though.

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    Director dahamsta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingdom View Post
    You can take this request either way from someone who doesn't post in this forum regularly, but can I ask why?
    I've already explained why my trust n Varadker is waning. On Martin I don't think I could pin it down, but I would say that the way he's handled his family difficulties has inspired some confidence.

    Again though, I'm not an FF man, and I don't vote in his constituency any more, so it's a moot point. I haven't looked into the candidates down my way yet, but I assume they'll all be the same, and they'll all still be rubbish. There usually isn't a single good candidate, from any party, in Cork East.

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    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by osarusan View Post
    Paddy Power have FF at 2/9 to win the most seats, with FG at 11/4, and have Michael Martin at 1/5 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar at 3/1.

    No idea how they have reached those odds though.
    When each constituency is priced up you could get a good look at how the numbers stack up - I did it for the last election and there was only 10 or so seats wrong. They must do a lot of work on it locally. I'll throw up the analysis here when they have the whole thing priced up - only some constituencies priced up so far.
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    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    That poll over the weekend really backed up the assertion that the RIC commemoration was one of the most bizarre hills to die on for a government party in the history of the state. It made Varadkar and Flanagan look like morons. Fianna Fail reaping the benefits.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    Seasoned Pro Kingdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by osarusan View Post
    Paddy Power have FF at 2/9 to win the most seats, with FG at 11/4, and have Michael Martin at 1/5 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar at 3/1.

    No idea how they have reached those odds though.
    A guy I work with, put 50€ on FF to win the election at 11/8 about a week ago, and within an hour they were down to 10/11. His understanding is it's a very short market, so a biggish bet would distort the market hugely.

    Quote Originally Posted by dahamsta View Post
    I've already explained why my trust n Varadker is waning. On Martin I don't think I could pin it down, but I would say that the way he's handled his family difficulties has inspired some confidence.
    .
    I can't/won't comment on the candidates on this forum, and from this pc, but that's a very fair point.
    Last edited by dahamsta; 21/01/2020 at 11:27 AM. Reason: Merging Posts
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    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    When each constituency is priced up you could get a good look at how the numbers stack up - I did it for the last election and there was only 10 or so seats wrong. They must do a lot of work on it locally. I'll throw up the analysis here when they have the whole thing priced up - only some constituencies priced up so far.
    All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is

    FF - 54 Seats (+7)
    FG - 46 Seats (+1)
    Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
    Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
    Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
    SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
    Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
    Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
    Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
    1 Ceann Comhairle
    1 Seat is Vacent Currently

    I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties

    So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)

    FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
    FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
    SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
    Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
    G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
    SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
    Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )

    Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.
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  22. #20
    Seasoned Pro Kingdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is

    FF - 54 Seats (+7)
    FG - 46 Seats (+1)
    Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
    Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
    Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
    SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
    Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
    Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
    Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
    1 Ceann Comhairle
    1 Seat is Vacent Currently

    I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties

    So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)

    FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
    FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
    SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
    Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
    G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
    SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
    Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )

    Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.
    Good man RAM.

    I spent 3 nights stupidly looking at the various constituencies. SF have the scope to really make that big push.
    Its really make or break time for the Soc Dems. It's possible - an outside chance - that they could get to 4 or 5 seats, but if they don't gain, then the left Labour, Soc Dems, some independents, really need to sit down and talk to each other. Because it's weakening politics in a very small country.

    FWIW, I have it as FF 52, FG 44, SF 24, Lab 8 & Greens 9. Some of the final seat calls are really tight and it's an absolute coin-toss, yet some other "rural" constituencies are so set, then it's nearly a waste having the election.
    Take Mayo. Alan Dillon shouldn't be a TD, no disrespect to him. But if he gets any decent wedge of Kenny's core vote, he'll be elected. Yet McHugh would likely lose out if Dillon gets elected, which again is unfortunate.
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